As for whether or not they'll succeed, I have no idea.

Right now, it seems to me they have two very big problems. One, few games take advantage of the PhysX hardware at all, and the few that do don't use the PPU's processing power in a compelling way. Two, the most common physics elements in today's games, rigid-body objects and particle effects, can be handled fairly well by high-end, dual-core CPUs, based on our CellFactor tests. That fact may narrow the PhysX cards' primary selling points to the acceleration of things like fluids, cloth, and complex interactive particles. Ageia argues that offloading all physics to the PPU is good because it frees up CPU time, but it ain't easy to sell folks on offloading a CPU core that would otherwise be largely idle.

Ageia may have a third big problem if it turns out that this first-gen PhysX PPU is simply a dog of a performer. We don't have enough evidence draw that conclusion yet, but nothing I've seen so far convinces me this chip offers the sort of major leap in physics performance that Ageia claims for it. I remain hopeful, though, and we'll be watching new PhysX-enabled games as they become available to see whether any of them deliver on PhysX's promise.