Does a Strong AMD Really Drive Prices Lower?

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Re: Does a Strong AMD Really Drive Prices Lower?

Postposted on Thu Oct 10, 2013 11:44 am

Star Brood wrote:How is it that Home Depot has several times the revenue of McDonald's!?

Each Home Depot customer typically spends a lot more than than a typical McDonalds customer. They also sell a lot to home remodeling contractors.
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Re: Does a Strong AMD Really Drive Prices Lower?

Postposted on Thu Oct 10, 2013 12:08 pm

clone wrote:End User why don't you compare some hard numbers between ARM and Intel and avoid the graphs

Revenue from the past 12 months:

iPhone (product): $88.4 billion
Intel (company): $52.3 billion

clone wrote:and when you compare those numbers how about not pretending the phone space is the only space.

While I have mentioned tablets and servers in this thread I just needed one product (iPhone) to demonstrate that ARM based products compare extremely well to Intel when it comes to revenue.

Todays CPU war is between ARM and Intel. AMD is watching from the sidelines, battle-scarred and out of ammo.

HP knows which way the wind is blowing.
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Re: Does a Strong AMD Really Drive Prices Lower?

Postposted on Thu Oct 10, 2013 1:14 pm

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Re: Does a Strong AMD Really Drive Prices Lower?

Postposted on Thu Oct 10, 2013 1:33 pm

clone wrote:
The sales numbers don't suggest that. Roughly 700 million ARM based devices will be sold this year.
look at the revenues.... arm is the ant, not ants, just an ant in comparison to Intel who not only dominates the desktop PC space but several other far more lucrative segments as well which is why they are the elephant.

arms 2012 revenue 913 million, Intel's 2012 revenue 53.3 billion, ARM's revenues up 16% Intel's 24% (despite suffering from the hdd shortage) ARM's margins 46% Intel's 63%.

ant v elephant.


Isn't that ARM revenue basically just what they get from licensing?
If we really want to get true "ARM" revenue we need to be looking at things like Samsung's mobile device sales, Qualcomm's APU sales, etc.

By itself, Samsung's Mobile Phone division revenue for Q2, 2013 was something like 32 billion dollars. [sauce]
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Re: Does a Strong AMD Really Drive Prices Lower?

Postposted on Thu Oct 10, 2013 1:44 pm

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Re: Does a Strong AMD Really Drive Prices Lower?

Postposted on Thu Oct 10, 2013 2:02 pm

jihadjoe wrote:Isn't that ARM revenue basically just what they get from licensing?
If we really want to get true "ARM" revenue we need to be looking at things like Samsung's mobile device sales, Qualcomm's APU sales, etc.

Do we really need to tally the revenue from every company that produces x86 PCs? Come on, this is an insane comparison.

Compare ARM to Intel to AMD, not the various companies that use their product.
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Re: Does a Strong AMD Really Drive Prices Lower?

Postposted on Thu Oct 10, 2013 2:24 pm

clone wrote:
If we really want to get true "ARM" revenue we need to be looking at things like Samsung's mobile device sales, Qualcomm's APU sales, etc.
c'mon already.... if you want to get the true revenue for ARM you look at their quarterly and annual earnings reports, you don't look at Apple's revenues because they aren't ARM's, you don't look at Samsungs numbers or Googles or tablet sales.

you get it all nicely wrapped up in a tidy clean bow.... 2012 ARM earned a little over 900 million from everything..... EVERYTHING.... next year they will probably make more but if Intel gets a platform... not a cpu but a complete platform put together that is compelling ARM will suddenly be the dominant ultra mobile player that got killed because ARM's business model is built around providing a cpu not a platform.

ARM for you = ARM Holdings. ARM for myself and everybody else encompasses ARM Holdings, its technology and its licensees. The ARM business model is completely different from that of Intel. Any comparison between the two must factor in these diferences.

clone wrote:small and agile looks nice in theory but fails epically once focused on by larger players who have exponentially more resources available.... the operative word being "focused" in that scenario.

The beauty of ARM licensing is that ARM licencees such as Qualcomm, Samsung, Nvidia and Apple have brought tremendous amounts of resources and focus to the table. The proof of this is in the millions of products that they have shipped and the level of progress we have seen year in and year out.
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Re: Does a Strong AMD Really Drive Prices Lower?

Postposted on Thu Oct 10, 2013 3:04 pm

If a Corvette uses a Keisler Transmission we don't calculate Kiesler's revenue by using Corvette sale's revenue. Using the money Apple makes off the iPhone to represent what ARM makes is completely incorrect. You would have to know the licensing agreement between them. Or you can simply follow the reported revenue of ARM Holdings as Clone has mentioned.
Also Qualcomm, Samsung, Nvidia, and Apple do not share technology. It's convoluted to pool them together as if they all shared resources and compare them to Intel itself.
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Re: Does a Strong AMD Really Drive Prices Lower?

Postposted on Thu Oct 10, 2013 3:15 pm

Blink wrote:If a Corvette uses a Keisler Transmission we don't calculate Kiesler's revenue by using Corvette sale's revenue. Using the money Apple makes off the iPhone to represent what ARM makes is completely incorrect. You would have to know the licensing agreement between them. Or you can simply follow the reported revenue of ARM Holdings as Clone has mentioned.
Also Qualcomm, Samsung, Nvidia, and Apple do not share technology. It's convoluted to pool them together as if they all shared resources and compare them to Intel itself.

As I mentioned before "ARM" can be viewed in two ways:

1) ARM Holdings
2) ARM as the entire ecosystem

Both you and Clone are referring to ARM Holdings. I am referring to the ARM the ecosystem. Your view paints ARM as a small player. My view recognizes it as a major competitor to Intel.

Lets just say we agree to disagree and leave it at that.
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Re: Does a Strong AMD Really Drive Prices Lower?

Postposted on Thu Oct 10, 2013 4:03 pm

ronch wrote:Does a strong AMD with a very competitive line-up really help the x86 industry have lower prices?


Of course a strong AMD should help keep prices lower. The trouble is, in order for that to actually happen, Intel has to be inferior for an extended enough period of time for them to be forced to lower their prices. As Intel is so much larger and better capitalized than AMD, this has historically been a tall order, but in theory, this should happen if AMD managed to pull ahead and Intel was unable to buy off/blackmail their way out. But in many ways, the writing is already on the wall for processor prices in general: we are already seeing what happens when Intel is confronted by powerful enough competitors. Look at the prices of Atom chips, which at this point, are not only competing with AMD's excellent low-power lineup, but against ARM-based CPUs, too. As ARM chips increase in power, and even the most demanding consumer applications are easily run by these chips, it becomes difficult to picture Intel being able to command >$250 prices for virtually any consumer-oriented chips. Only the most specialized applications (HPC, servers, etc.) will actually require or greatly benefit from higher end CPUs. This has already happened, and the process will likely continue to accelerate.

This is Intel's future, in my view. There is an inevitability that sufficiently powerful processors for most consumer devices (smart phones, tablets, convertible PC/tablets, even mainstream desktop computers) will become a commodity -- in essence, they already have become commodities, since we now have ARM-based tablets taking market share directly away from portable x86 devices that have not had such viable competition until the iPad and Android tablets. When ARM-based devices are functionally interchangeable with traditional laptop/desktop PCs in the eyes of most consumers, Intel will no longer be able to command premium prices for their CPUs in these devices. If you don't believe this, consider automobiles. Ferrari and Porche and Lamborghini produce some of the very fastest cars you can buy, and they are priced at a premium, but only a miniscule fraction of consumers ever considers buying such cars over more mainstream favourites like the Honda Civic/Accord, Toyota Corolla/Camry, etc. Even if they can afford them, there is simply too little additional benefit to be derived from paying more money for a vehicle than the price of a Civic or a Corolla: it's simply not worth it, and this IS slowly happening to mainstream processors, make no mistake.
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Re: Does a Strong AMD Really Drive Prices Lower?

Postposted on Thu Oct 10, 2013 5:22 pm

Ryu Connor wrote:I don't feel like prices have changed much in the last decade plus or so.

I recall paying around $500 for a Pentium III (Katmai) 500MHz. IIRC the 600MHz was closer to $1K and the 450MHz closer to $300.

To me I don't see how that's any different than the situation now with the 4770, 4930, and the 4960.

The area with the most new diversification was the low end.

Intel was marching in the direction of more diverse product lines regardless of AMD. Bob Colewell (Intel Engineer of PPro and P4) notes that Intel's marketing had been pushing for years to have a product line with at least three chips in it (i3, i5, and i7) due to the way people mentally evaluate and make purchases.



High end prices haven't changed much, perhaps, but don't forget that ten years ago the difference in speed between the current generation CPU and the next generation CPU was huge, and you needed the expensive upgrade to stay competitive. Nowadays you can hang back even as far as the low end and still have a competitive system in many respects.
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Re: Does a Strong AMD Really Drive Prices Lower?

Postposted on Thu Oct 10, 2013 5:25 pm

End User wrote:As I mentioned before "ARM" can be viewed in two ways:

1) ARM Holdings
2) ARM as the entire ecosystem

Both you and Clone are referring to ARM Holdings. I am referring to the ARM the ecosystem.


Still doesn't make sense. If you're comparing ARM the ecosystem, then shouldn't you be comparing it to, say, Intel the ecosystem?
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Re: Does a Strong AMD Really Drive Prices Lower?

Postposted on Thu Oct 10, 2013 6:35 pm

I think the point here is that ARM Holdings and Intel aren't even remotely comparable. ARM revenue is licensing only, Intel's includes manufacturing. If the point was to see how much money was being made off of the manufacture and sale of ARM based chips, then we have to include PART of the ecosystem.

Of course we end up with another non-comparison, because this time we're measuring an entire ecosystem against Intel's chip manufacturing business.
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Re: Does a Strong AMD Really Drive Prices Lower?

Postposted on Thu Oct 10, 2013 8:49 pm

i think the OP has it a little backward

a strong amd cpu will drive INTEL prices down not amd prices down

the price of a cpu will be mostly relevant to its performance compared to its competition - no matter if it is amd or intel

thats why back in the k7 days with semi expensive amd cpu's they were able to price their product higher than normal (because they had higher performance) and drive intels prices lower (to match the price/performance of amd cpu's)

its the same now with bulldozer, because the performance is low the price is also low and intels prices are high because the performance is high

"What do you guys think would've happened if Bulldozer ended up bulldozing Sandy Bridge? Do you think we'd be able to buy an FX-8350 8-core CPU for $190? Would it make the Core i7-3960X just $300? I don't think so."

if this theoretical bulldozer bulldozed sandy bridge then you would find they would have had similar prices for similar performance so whatever amd priced this theoretical bulldozer at (say $400) then you would have been able to buy a similar performance intel cpu for a similar price (3930k for probably $400)

price is always relative to performance even now the bulldozers while not the best performance are on parity with price/performance of intel cpus (unless you overclock then intel wins that one)
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Re: Does a Strong AMD Really Drive Prices Lower?

Postposted on Fri Oct 11, 2013 12:00 am

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Re: Does a Strong AMD Really Drive Prices Lower?

Postposted on Fri Oct 11, 2013 1:55 am

clone wrote:
1) ARM Holdings
2) ARM as the entire ecosystem
ARM doesn't have an ecosystem, they are a contributor to an ecosystem, ARM licenses a cpu design... that's it.

Intel on the other hand by designing the whole platform is designing the ecosystem... in their case they'll remove ARM from the equation by... if they are determined to by leveraging the entire platform to make it too expensive for others to source parts on their own.

I don't think Intel is in a position to remove ARM from the equation.

Lets take our conversation to a new thread.
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Re: Does a Strong AMD Really Drive Prices Lower?

Postposted on Fri Oct 11, 2013 6:29 pm

A strong AMD doesn't drive prices lower but it does make Intel innovate. Only having one relevant company in a given area all but guarantees stagnation.
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Re: Does a Strong AMD Really Drive Prices Lower?

Postposted on Fri Oct 11, 2013 7:46 pm

clone wrote:
If we really want to get true "ARM" revenue we need to be looking at things like Samsung's mobile device sales, Qualcomm's APU sales, etc.
c'mon already.... if you want to get the true revenue for ARM you look at their quarterly and annual earnings reports, you don't look at Apple's revenues because they aren't ARM's, you don't look at Samsungs numbers or Googles or tablet sales.

you get it all nicely wrapped up in a tidy clean bow.... 2012 ARM earned a little over 900 million from everything..... EVERYTHING.... next year they will probably make more but if Intel gets a platform... not a cpu but a complete platform put together that is compelling ARM will suddenly be the dominant ultra mobile player that got killed because ARM's business model is built around providing a cpu not a platform.

small and agile looks nice in theory but fails epically once focused on by larger players who have exponentially more resources available.... the operative word being "focused" in that scenario.



Faintly stunning how you and the point never seem to have crossed paths.

For one you haven't read TR's own articles on ARM:

http://techreport.com/review/25067/an-i ... things-arm

In those it was made clear ARM does not have the same business model as Intel. So revenues versus revenues doesn't wash as an argument. Why don't you look at it backwards and think why a company that makes pennies has enabled and remains the defacto standard of mobile computing.

WTF is this 'platform' lather your getting in to like it doesn't exist already and has served ARM licensees extremely well so far? The 'platform' in phones and tablets is the SOC and the OS. ARM do design and license WHOLE SOCs sans perhaps the modem block. There is a rather popular OS for phones and tablets called Android. It's made rather a splash. This is all from an article on this very site just a few months ago.

Software is the tail that wags the hardware dog. It is an unavoidable, irrefutable truth that the 'Ecosystem' in the phone and tablet world is ARM + Android or iOS plus EVERY HANDSET AND TABLET MANUFACTURER OUT THERE. The ENTIRE market for mobile computing has come up on the back of ARM IP, Apple and Google and is heavily invested in making sure this little circle of life keeps going. To think that this is going to be altered in any meaningful way any time soon is a stretch. It'll take Apple or Samsung to be convinced that ARM isn't the way forward for Intel to make big strides in this area but right now they are both armpit deep in the backside of the cow of the status quo, fishing for more golden calves. Or somehow maybe in a fantasy world windows 8 phones and tablets will go toe-to-toe with iOS equivalents in brand recognition and marketability. But Windows has never broken out of it's PC and server home in any meaningful way.

So what's a new SOC vendor's vector into this market? Android on x86? Unlikely. Windows? That really will be the day. The coin they dropped advertising Win. 8 and look where we are with that....
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Re: Does a Strong AMD Really Drive Prices Lower?

Postposted on Fri Oct 11, 2013 11:32 pm

ARM is an odd one...possibly the only company in the history of computing that can legitimately say that its IP licensing model is not patent trolling.
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Re: Does a Strong AMD Really Drive Prices Lower?

Postposted on Sat Oct 12, 2013 12:39 am

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