Post-AMD Market

From the pixels, bits, and shaders to the graphic cards that power them. Discuss the latest from AMD and NVIDIA here.

Moderators: morphine, SecretSquirrel

Post-AMD Market

Postposted on Sun Aug 17, 2014 6:01 pm

I predict AMD will go under in a year, leaving Intel and nVidia to price the market as they see fit. Leading up to that, desktop GTX 8xx cards will release in September in October, offering nearly double the performance of the competing AMD R9 GPUs with roughly half the power consumption. Asides from the lower mid-range Tonga, AMD has no new products due this year, certainly no products that would compete with the high-end GM204.

In a year we'll be seeing i3s, i5s and GTX *50 cards priced around the $800 mark, while higher end offerings could go for around $5,000.

As for the consoles, who pays TSMC or GloFo for those console APU wafers? If it's AMD, then consoles will also be priced sky high and soon the only place to find them will be on eBay or Craig's List for a couple grand. If so, hardware will become so scarce and expensive that game sales will plummet and the video game industry will be dust in the wind. I give it two to three years until this happens.

Edit: Even though the mobile market may not be effected by this, it will suffice to say iOS and Android will be the only viable gaming platforms in the near-future.
Dell XPS 8100 - Core i7 860 - 8GB DDR3-1333 - Gigabyte HD 7850 - 1.5TB 7200rpm HDD - Acer 20" LED monitor (1600*900) - 350W PSU
ultima_trev
Gerbil
 
Posts: 73
Joined: Sat Mar 27, 2010 11:14 am

Re: Post-AMD Market

Postposted on Sun Aug 17, 2014 6:33 pm

While I expect that you posted this just for kicks, I'm biting because I think that it's interesting, if meaningless, exercise.

My take is that whether the company that is currently AMD remains solvent or not, AMD's technology will remain on the market for at least another decade. The company may be broken up, the various units and IP and branding may be scattered to the wind, sure, but it will all remain on the market in some form.

So here's another exercise: if AMD were to fail today as the OP posits will happen in the near future, where would all of it go?

Considering that Intel remains out of anti-trust regulators sites in the CPU market literally because AMD still 'exists', and that they previously signed an open licensing agreement and paid AMD US$2BN in cash to settle a long ongoing dispute, one can make the case that Intel needs AMD in order to survive, and would approve of just about any future measure that keeps their competitor on the market. My bet is that they'll let AMD's x86 license be transferred to another entity that's actually capable of putting it to competitive use. And I expect that Nvidia would be at the top of that list.

And if Nvidia takes the x86 license and CPU business, Intel may take the GPU business.

And I think that we'd all win- with Intel putting their resources into Radeon graphics cards and even producing them at their own fabs, we get a competitor to Nvidia that could actually keep the pressure on, something that AMD seems to be losing with the coming generation. And with an ever aggressive Nvidia pushing AMD CPUs, Intel might find themselves real competition in the CPU market not seen since AMD released the K8.
Canon 6D||[24-105/4L IS USM|100/2.8L Macro IS USM|70-300/4-5.6 IS USM|40/2.8 STM|50/1.4 USM|85/1.8 USM|Samyang/Bower 14/2.8 Full-Manual Rectilinear Wide-angle|
Canon EOS-M|11-22/4-5.6 IS STM|22/2 STM|EF-M 18-55/3.5-5.6 IS STM|
For sale!|24/2.8 IS USM
|
Airmantharp
Gerbil Elder
 
Posts: 5012
Joined: Fri Oct 15, 2004 10:41 pm

Re: Post-AMD Market

Postposted on Sun Aug 17, 2014 7:13 pm

It would be quite surprising for AMD to go under within a year. They've pretty much managed to stop the financial bleeding that has plagued the company over the past several years. This is also with 2014 being a dead year in terms of new products. Sure, Kabini and Kaveri came out but they didn't see much play from the OEM's. AMD's GPU update for this year has yet to land. Socket AM3 is dead without any new products for it but still gets a bit of traction in the DIY market due to pricing. AMD was on the edge of collapsing a year ago and if they were going to go under, they simply would have by now.

2015 is a big year for the company with several major new products. The main thing AMD needs to do is get more design wins and they have several for their ARM based Opterons. Their HSA efforts may also pay off in 2015 with the successor to Kaveri arriving. On the GPU side of things, there will still be competition from nVidia but if AMD can beat them to 20 nm by a wide time margin, they'll be fine.

If anything, there is room for another company to move in and purchase AMD. There are only a handful of companies that it'd make sense: Apple, Samsung and Qualcom come to mind. Due to the anti-trust settlement, the x86 license can be transferred with permission from Intel. Due the regulators watching, it would be in Intel's best interest to let a buyout go through but I'd expect a couple of concessions to appear (mainly more cross licensing agreements with the new parent).

While nVidia's Maxwell is rather power efficient, the performance increase for the arrangement of SMX, ROPs, and TMUs is not that big of a leap compared to Kepler. Essentially the power savings of Maxwell will be funneled into higher clock speeds as signs are pointing toward nVidia using 28 nm for the GTX 880 series. This means that nVidia is pretty much stuck using similar number of shaders, ROPs and TMU's as Kepler as there is little room to further increase in die size. This also brings me to the highend GK210 chip: it isn't coming out this year. Rather the GK204 is set to be nVidia's flagship card and displace the GTX780Ti. (The Titan Black will not be replaced when the GTX 880 arrives due to Titan's unlocked compute focus. It'd be faster in DP workloads than an unlocked GM204 if history is any precedent.)
Dual Opteron 6376, 128 GB DDR3, Asus KGPE-D16, Radeon 6970
Mac Pro Dual Xeon E5645, 48 GB DDR3, GTX 770
Core i7 3930K@4.2 Ghz, 32 GB DDR3, GA-X79-UP5-Wifi
Core i7 2600K@4.4 Ghz, 16 GB DDR3, Radeon 6870, GA-X68XP-UD4
the
Gerbil
Gold subscriber
 
 
Posts: 91
Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 2:26 am

Re: Post-AMD Market

Postposted on Sun Aug 17, 2014 7:29 pm

AMD will still have the inertia from their R&D of future products. Do keep in mind that they're going to be launching that ARM+x86 K12 and potentially stacked RAM on APUs.

What is likely to happen is that AMD will eventually give up almost all of the desktop market to Intel, if the rumors that AMD plans only using Carrizo for mobile devices is true.

If their K12 fails to gain major adoption before additional ARM competitors start jumping into the server market, then I could see them calling it quits 1-3 years after the K12 launch.


Intel has three main choices. They could prop up AMD just enough to keep regulators away, allow the x86 license to transfer, or convince the regulators that Intel's main competitors are the ARM-based manufacturers ranging from Qualcomm to Nividia.

If the 3rd option occurs, Intel simply has to discourage too much software being written for ARM architecture in order to prevent a mass migration from x86 to ARM.

As for the console APU contracts, I would assume the contracts would have something just in case if AMD went bankrupt so Sony and MS could keep making the consoles.

One thing for sure is that patent trolls would be in a race to acquire as much patents as possible.
UnfriendlyFire
Gerbil
 
Posts: 90
Joined: Sat Aug 03, 2013 7:28 am

Re: Post-AMD Market

Postposted on Sun Aug 17, 2014 9:09 pm

That asteroid can't get here soon enough...
Yeats
Gerbil XP
Silver subscriber
 
 
Posts: 323
Joined: Wed Oct 19, 2011 8:53 pm
Location: NJ, USA

Re: Post-AMD Market

Postposted on Mon Aug 18, 2014 3:13 am

ultima_trev wrote:As for the consoles, who pays TSMC or GloFo for those console APU wafers? If it's AMD, then consoles will also be priced sky high and soon the only place to find them will be on eBay or Craig's List for a couple grand. If so, hardware will become so scarce and expensive that game sales will plummet and the video game industry will be dust in the wind. I give it two to three years until this happens.


im fairly sure microsoft and sony fully licenced the APU's as in they pay for everything - i dont think AMD has anything to do with those apu's anymore except maybe collecting a small fee (even then im not sure if they would even get this as i suspect microsony outright bought the rights to those APU's)
f0d
Gerbil
 
Posts: 68
Joined: Sun Jan 23, 2011 3:07 pm

Re: Post-AMD Market

Postposted on Mon Aug 18, 2014 3:42 am

Well, here's hoping they survive long enough to release K12x and K12a, and that those chips earn enough money to keep AMD alive. I don't expect K12x to beat Intel's offerings so I'm just hoping it earns AMD enough cash to keep themselves alive and give us alternatives in the x86 space, and who knows, perhaps they'll get another shot at x86 supremacy someday. K12a, however, is the ARM microserver industry's hope and no doubt many ARM players are watching how it'll unfold to see how feasible the ARM microserver market really is. I think there are some other ARM players that are developing big ARM cores for microserver duties but AFAIK AMD's K12 is the most high-profile and prominent so far.

And that's that. If those products don't succeed well enough AMD is bust, and I don't have to repeat what the earlier posters here have said. All of their predictions are certainly possible.
The three pillars of my digital life: AMD FX-8350, Google Nexus 7 (Qualcomm Snapdragon S4 Pro), Intel Core i5-2450M
ronch
Gerbil Elite
 
Posts: 654
Joined: Mon Apr 06, 2009 7:55 am
Location: C:\Program Files\

Re: Post-AMD Market

Postposted on Mon Aug 18, 2014 6:33 am

f0d wrote:
ultima_trev wrote:As for the consoles, who pays TSMC or GloFo for those console APU wafers? If it's AMD, then consoles will also be priced sky high and soon the only place to find them will be on eBay or Craig's List for a couple grand. If so, hardware will become so scarce and expensive that game sales will plummet and the video game industry will be dust in the wind. I give it two to three years until this happens.


im fairly sure microsoft and sony fully licenced the APU's as in they pay for everything - i dont think AMD has anything to do with those apu's anymore except maybe collecting a small fee (even then im not sure if they would even get this as i suspect microsony outright bought the rights to those APU's)


Microsoft did that with the Xbox 360 and Cell in the PS4. However, the x86 nature of the CPU would require AMD to have sublicensee the x86 architecture to Microsoft and Sony which is something they'd have to get Intel on board for.

If history is any indication, the console chips will take advantage half way in between nodes. They are not the chips to take first advantage of a process due to the economics involved. If 20 nm remains rather expensive, then it'll be awhile for the console chips to receive a shrink. AMD also has the option of shopping around to other foundries to get this chip made. (Though Intel would have to sign off on another player building x86 chips like they did for TSMC.) As such, I wouldn't expect 20 nm Xbox One and PS4 chips until 2016 or even 2017.
Dual Opteron 6376, 128 GB DDR3, Asus KGPE-D16, Radeon 6970
Mac Pro Dual Xeon E5645, 48 GB DDR3, GTX 770
Core i7 3930K@4.2 Ghz, 32 GB DDR3, GA-X79-UP5-Wifi
Core i7 2600K@4.4 Ghz, 16 GB DDR3, Radeon 6870, GA-X68XP-UD4
the
Gerbil
Gold subscriber
 
 
Posts: 91
Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 2:26 am

Re: Post-AMD Market

Postposted on Tue Aug 19, 2014 7:31 pm

I love AMD's GPU's, but I have almost no interest in their CPU's, which is sad, because if they didn't require so much power they'd actually be pretty decent. If AMD goes under, I'll gladly leave the PC scene in the blink of a eye, or just scrounge cheap secondhand parts. I love my old i7 920, because it's chugging along pretty well in 90% of AAA games, but after owning the Xbox 360 since 2007, I've realize I don't need to be a part of the PC master race, because games are all about the gameplay, and tbh, the community on the consoles is generally much larger for the games I play (97,000 this past weekend in CoD Ghosts).

Anyway, I'm sure AMD will be around for a long time, they might simply drop some product lines, but look at what they just announced a few days ago "AMD SSDs," I was like really? Seems kind of silly, but at least they're expanding their horizons. I can't wait to see their R9 3xx series!
AcidSnow
Gerbil
 
Posts: 16
Joined: Thu Apr 17, 2014 2:07 pm

Re: Post-AMD Market

Postposted on Tue Aug 19, 2014 10:44 pm

@the: Just curious about the part when you said Microsoft and Sony would need some sort of sublicense from AMD. AFAIK AMD needs a license from Intel to make x86 chips, period. Whoever uses those chips, Intel is out of the equation. For example, Dell, Acer, etc. use AMD CPUs but they don't need a sublicense of any sort, do they? I'm not aware of Intel butting in when it learned about the deals AMD struck with MS and Sony.
The three pillars of my digital life: AMD FX-8350, Google Nexus 7 (Qualcomm Snapdragon S4 Pro), Intel Core i5-2450M
ronch
Gerbil Elite
 
Posts: 654
Joined: Mon Apr 06, 2009 7:55 am
Location: C:\Program Files\

Re: Post-AMD Market

Postposted on Tue Aug 19, 2014 11:29 pm

In under a year? That's not going to happen even if they have four quarters of losses exactly like the last one. I've long since ceased worrying if AMD would be a going concern after they scored all the console wins. They will survive to 2016, but only the performance of it's new K12 core and ARM-based products will decide if they remain a CPU company by 2020. Even worst case I expect AMD to stay around as a GPU company, ATI has a good product and the gaming market isn't going anywhere for the next decade.
Kougar
Gerbil Team Leader
 
Posts: 298
Joined: Tue Dec 02, 2008 2:12 am
Location: Texas

Re: Post-AMD Market

Postposted on Wed Aug 20, 2014 12:59 am

ronch wrote:@the: Just curious about the part when you said Microsoft and Sony would need some sort of sublicense from AMD. AFAIK AMD needs a license from Intel to make x86 chips, period. Whoever uses those chips, Intel is out of the equation. For example, Dell, Acer, etc. use AMD CPUs but they don't need a sublicense of any sort, do they? I'm not aware of Intel butting in when it learned about the deals AMD struck with MS and Sony.


For the comparison, the likes of Dell, Acer etc. do not manufacture or design x86 chips but simply use parts from either AMD or Intel. The console world is a bit different from a historical perspective. Both MS and Sony owned the design to the Xbox 360's CPU and Cell under IBM's licensing terms. They could take the design and shop it around various foundries without issue. They could also engineer their own shrinks of the design or perform their own enhancements without recourse form IBM. Sony went a step further and build their own billion dollar fab to manufacture Cell and other PS3 support chips. IBM's behavior here is similar to ARM's business model in licensing architectural and core designs to 3rd parties to make chips.

The thing with the AMD SoC's in the new consoles is that MS and Sony cannot take the designs and look at other foundries to cut costs. For example, say MS wants to use Samsung's fabs they wouldn't have the x86 license to migrate the design to the other fab on their own. They'd have to go through AMD to do it for them. As a middleman responsible for the layout, AMD would eat most of the profits MS and Sony would get by switching fabs.

AMD would have to seek permission from Intel though this is mainly a formality as Intel realistically can't say no due to anti-trust settlements. Intel initially challenged AMD's usage of Global Foundries after it was spun off but that was resolved in late 2009 when the companies settled out of court. The agreement does prevent AMD from relicensing the base x86 patents to other companies and thus AMD cannot sell the console SoC designs like IBM did before. Any modern x86 chip needs both patents from AMD and Intel to be made thus making the AMD-Intel lawsuit a gamble of mutually assured destruction.
Dual Opteron 6376, 128 GB DDR3, Asus KGPE-D16, Radeon 6970
Mac Pro Dual Xeon E5645, 48 GB DDR3, GTX 770
Core i7 3930K@4.2 Ghz, 32 GB DDR3, GA-X79-UP5-Wifi
Core i7 2600K@4.4 Ghz, 16 GB DDR3, Radeon 6870, GA-X68XP-UD4
the
Gerbil
Gold subscriber
 
 
Posts: 91
Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 2:26 am


Return to Graphics

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests