Who knows there Fantasy Baseball???

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Who knows there Fantasy Baseball???

Postposted on Tue Feb 19, 2008 4:50 pm

I am playing for my second year....we play a NL league only, I can select up to 10 keepers from last years team. We play with a salary or $250 for 25 players. The salaries are listed with my players, some of no brainers like Braun for $10 or Mccann for $1. But I am in a toss over some of them.....Here is my shabby team.....I listed in bold the players I am thinking of keeping...........
Bard, Josh 10
McCann, Brian 1
Howard, Ryan 28

Loretta, Mark 5
Feliz, Pedro 13
Greene, Khalil 10
Hardy, J.J. 7
Braun, Ryan 10
Bourn, Michael 5
Diaz, Matt 1
Rowand, Aaron 15
Young, Chris B. 8
Drew, Stephen 10
Hudson, Orlando 8
Pitchers:
Bailey, Homer 10
Broxton, Jonathan 9
Capps, Matt 10
Gallardo, Yovani 10
Gorzelanny, Tom 2
Harang, Aaron 2

Hennessey, Brad 5
Moyer, Jamie 9
Owings, Micah 9
Saito, Takashi 6
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Re: Who knows there Fantasy Baseball???

Postposted on Tue Feb 19, 2008 5:11 pm

budman007 wrote:McCann, Brian 1
Howard, Ryan 28
Braun, Ryan 10
Young, Chris B. 8
Harang, Aaron 2
Saito, Takashi 6


Do you HAVE to keep 10? If not, those are the ones I'd keep for sure. Saito is the closer again? Howard at 28 is a friggin steal, he's a must keep. So is McCann at a buck. Young and Harang are solid buys. You'll need the extra cash for starting pitching and some batting average to offset some of the poor averages you'd be keeping.

edit: I might keep Diaz at a buck too.

edit II: Man, its been a long time since I played with a salary cap. There's a lot more thinking to do!

edit III: sign up for our fantasy baseball league!
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Re: Who knows there Fantasy Baseball???

Postposted on Tue Feb 19, 2008 5:17 pm

I dont know that I would keep Saito or Khalil Greene (especially at $10) necessarily. I mean, if you can keep 10, and you have the salary room...those ten are pretty solid. The only thing is choosing between Saito and Broxton, since they're in direct competition, Saito is old, and Broxton has a lot of upside (though $9 is pretty steep for him). I guess that really depends on the market for closers in the league.

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Re: Who knows there Fantasy Baseball???

Postposted on Wed Feb 20, 2008 8:27 am

You don't have to keep 10, but for the prices, I think I have a solid 10....I am in the air about the Saito/Broxton deal, but my thoughts are this, Keep Saito at $6 and buy Broxton during draft if I can sneak him in. On Greene, the outlooks is high, he wasn't bad and if I knew noone would buy him for more then $10 during the draft, I would let him go, but with the expectations, I think he is a $15 guy. Who does people think would be a better steal at draft day, Santana, Haren,Tejada or Pujols? Pujols was $49 in our league last year, so I am sure he will be dropped before draft day this year, the rest are for sure out there. Personally, I am unsure about Pujols or Tejada, I think Santana will be good, but wonder if Haren will be the big dog of the group, I think he might be the cheapest when on draft day. Thoughts?
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Re: Who knows there Fantasy Baseball???

Postposted on Wed Feb 20, 2008 9:26 am

I expect Haren to really do well in returning to the NL this year as long as the Dbacks defense is solid behind him. He was the ERA champ of the AL last year and would have won more games if the A's had scored more runs for him. If he's available and relatively cheap, I'd snap him up in a heartbeat.
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Re: Who knows there Fantasy Baseball???

Postposted on Wed Feb 20, 2008 9:33 am

Cheap is the key word, however what I tried to do last year was throw the names out for the big dogs that I didnt want first and let people overpay before someone I wanted.....So I hope haren slips through until santana, peavy, zambrano and a few others are gone, the big difference is, this year most of us are keeping 10 players, so the only really big dogs out there will be santana and haren and maybe peavy(his price was $31 last year) I think I have 3 solid starters to my team, but Gallardo will be out a few weeks, so that might hurt me a bit. What do you guys think of willy mo pena? Sleeper? Any others? I do have a month until this draft, so lots can happen, but trying to get some research started early...this is a money league....
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Re: Who knows there Fantasy Baseball???

Postposted on Wed Feb 20, 2008 2:58 pm

I still dunno about Khalil..I think when a player is 28 and we're still talking about "upside" theres an issue. His walkrate has gone down *drastically,* which is really telling since he was known for his eye. I don't see 27 HRs as establishing a new baseline for him, but rather him trending back towards '05, '06 levels. I mean, I'm not sure what the market in your league is like, but $10 for a (generously) .265/80/20/80 player seems like a lot. And again, those numbers are still above his career and 3 year averages.
As for willy mo...I believe in the man, but he might not get a lot of playing time. Other buy low candidates include Chris Duncan and Jason Bay (though knee problems are worrying since a lot of his value comes from the SB). Fukudome (the new Cubs import) is an interesting name, but Im not sure if Id expect anything more than 280/80/20/80 from him in his first year. I have no idea where Lou will bat him, or how he'll use him either.
Santana is going to go for a metric ton of money. You should encourage that, but not take part, IMHO. I dont think any pitcher is worth in the $40s.
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Re: Who knows there Fantasy Baseball???

Postposted on Wed Feb 20, 2008 3:19 pm

Khalil Greene needs to be traded. He gets hurt by his home park more than almost any other hitter in baseball. Petco field may be the most extreme pitcher's park in baseball, suppressing almost all hitting, but it's especially bad for a righty pull hitter like Khalil:

2004-2007, home: 1093 plate appearances, .230/.292/.377, 0.72 GB/FB, 7.6% HR/FB, 17.7% LD, .272 BABIP
2004-2007, road: 1126 plate appearances, .280/.334/.511, 0.80 GB/FB, 12.4% HR/FB, 20.7% LD, .305 BABIP

That's a lot of data, and it shows he's over 20% worse in OPS when playing at home. That's worse even than other righty pull hitters at Petco. Who knows why it hurts him more than anybody else (the power alleys may have gotten into his head to the point that he's trying to hit grounders and it's getting him out), but the guy needs to play somewhere else.

Of course for fantasy where defense doesn't matter, you've got another option if you have another player who is qualified at shortstop: employ a home/road platoon. Start Greene when he's playing on the road, and start the other guy when Greene's at home (assuming the other guy's numbers are higher than Greene's home numbers).

But that means Greene effectively costs twice as much, since you're only getting half his output. And that doesn't look worth it.
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Re: Who knows there Fantasy Baseball???

Postposted on Wed Feb 20, 2008 3:32 pm

Nice data!!!! Thanks...I might let greene go and keep broxton instead of waiting for him at draft....I actually had 3 SS last yr.....Greene, Hudson and Drew, none really were consistant though.....some say Hudson will drop a lot this yr and Drew is still so young, so I might let all three go.
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