Non TR Fantasy Baseball Advice

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Non TR Fantasy Baseball Advice

Postposted on Wed Mar 26, 2008 5:43 pm

Since this invariably happens, why not start a thread for it...

I need another RP, so I put out calls...

Here's the first offer I received:

G. Atkins (Col)
J. Valverde (Hou)
K. Escobar (LAA)
R. Hill (ChC)

for
D. Wright (NYM)

I like Atkins and Valverde, but Wright looks like he's going to be hot this year. In case it isn't clear, I've got Wright.. The guy offering the trade also has Pujols, Sizemore, Berkman, and Fielder.. so I'm a little leery of this trade since Hill and Escobar look like dead weight at this point.. I'm considering asking for B.Sheets (Mil) or E. Bedard (Sea) in addition to Atkins and Valverde...

Any suggestions?
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Re: Non TR Fantasy Baseball Advice

Postposted on Wed Mar 26, 2008 7:25 pm

Hill is a good pitcher (probably, most likely, maybe...), but Escobar may not contribute this year.
Now, aside from whether or not the deal is good, I have to question the underlying motivation. Rarely do you "need" an RP so badly you must trade for one in March.
Do you need an RP for saves? If so, are the following available on waivers: Accardo, Sherrill, CJ Wilson, B. Wilson, Troy Percival, Kerry Wood, Brandon Lyon (major value potential here), or Tom Gordon. Marmol, Howry, Broxton, and Beniot also may be worth owning (as well as maybe Betancourt in case Borowski dies, and...whoever is next in line in case Todd Jones dies).
Accardo and Gordon are technically fill-ins, though they could get a significant number of saves in the early going. Percival is a generally risky play with low upside. Remember, you only need saves from an RP - their ability to strike people out or pitch to low ERA/WHIPs is all gravy. As a matter of fact, a closer can pitch to a 9.00 ERA (1 run every 1 inning) and *still* be useful to a fantasy team.
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Re: Non TR Fantasy Baseball Advice

Postposted on Wed Mar 26, 2008 7:54 pm

I'm terrible at evaulating trades in fantasy terms, especially when you're not swapping like-for-like.

However, I offer the following factors for you to weigh as you will:
* run, don't walk, away from Escobar. He's revealed that he may have a torn ligament in his shoulder that could require surgery; no decision has been made yet AFAIK but whatever happens he's not going to be adding to anyone's fantasy totals for at least the start of the season, and possibly for all of 2008. If you wait you'll likely be able to pick him up for nothing later in the season (if it turns out there's anything left to salvage).
* With RPs you want either the designated closer for a team that wins a lot of close games (to pick up the saves) or a long reliever who throws a lot of stirkes (to pick up the Ks and WHIP). Valverde definitely fits the former (and has a decent K/9 and WHIP, though as a single-inning guy he's not going to weigh heavily in the totals); the NLW is anybody's division this year and the d'backs aren't going to have a lot of blow-outs either way.
* You can probably do better than Atkins, particularly if you're giving up Wright. But I don't know what's available (depending on how your team is constructed, that may be a position where you can use a guy who qualifies at several positions like -- of the top of my head -- the Brewers' Hall). But I agree, Wright could have a very good year so you want to get a lot for giving him up.
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Re: Non TR Fantasy Baseball Advice

Postposted on Wed Mar 26, 2008 8:32 pm

One correction, Ubergerbil...Valverde is now the closer for the Houston Astros, which (I guess..in theory...) changes his value a bit. I personally dont buy into whether or not it does...since theres no reliable way to tell if a team is going to play "close games" or not. Though the astros have the potential to be a bad bad bad team.

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Re: Non TR Fantasy Baseball Advice

Postposted on Wed Mar 26, 2008 8:52 pm

Turkina wrote:One correction, Ubergerbil...Valverde is now the closer for the Houston Astros, which (I guess..in theory...) changes his value a bit. I personally dont buy into whether or not it does...since theres no reliable way to tell if a team is going to play "close games" or not. Though the astros have the potential to be a bad bad bad team.
Ah, thanks. I don't keep up on the NL much in the off-season unless I'm setting up for a fantasy season. While you're right that there's no way to predict if a team will play a lot of games that will end in a save situation, teams in a very balanced division (as the NL West appears to be this year) are more likely to have a lot of close games among their division rivals (which is a lot of games thanks to the unbalanced schedule). Of course, anything can happen. That's why they play the games. :D
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Re: Non TR Fantasy Baseball Advice

Postposted on Wed Mar 26, 2008 9:10 pm

I rarely make any trades at all in March or April. Especially for a closer. Every year there's a closer who falls out of nowhere to have a decent year. Its just on you to make sure that when that guy falls, you get him
YOU CAN RUPTURE SOMEONE'S SPLEEN WITH A WATER BALLOON!!!!
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Re: Non TR Fantasy Baseball Advice

Postposted on Wed Mar 26, 2008 9:15 pm

Not a chance - they affect the other four stats so lightly that if you have the minimum number of RP's, I see no reason to pick up an extra, unless you think you really need the saves stat to win. I expect this year will be as good as last for him (something like 30/100/.325 I think? and like 100 runs scored and 30 SB on top of that).
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Re: Non TR Fantasy Baseball Advice

Postposted on Wed Mar 26, 2008 9:17 pm

yeah, derfunk is right on, no way in hell is that a fair deal for Wright. Look at his numbers last year: 30 HR, 107 RBI, 34 SB, 113 R, .325 average. That's Pujols with speed. No way. Keep him and prosper. Screw saves, punt them if you have to.
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Re: Non TR Fantasy Baseball Advice

Postposted on Wed Mar 26, 2008 10:15 pm

hey, i was close! Just going from memory. :lol:
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Re: Non TR Fantasy Baseball Advice

Postposted on Thu Mar 27, 2008 12:38 pm

Thanks for the advice... This may help in providing more info.. Here is my roster:


Batting
R HR RBI SB K AVG
C Kenji Johjima(Sea - C)
1B Justin Morneau(Min - 1B)
2B Brian Roberts (Bal - 2B)
3B David Wright(NYM - 3B)
SS Troy Tulowitzki(Col - SS)
OF Carlos Beltrán (NYM - OF)\
OF Carlos Lee (Hou - OF)
OF Torii Hunter(LAA - OF)
Util Carlos Peña (TB - 1B)
BN Adrián González(SD - 1B)
BN Juan Pierre (LAD - OF)
BN Todd Helton(Col - 1B)

Pitchers
W L SV K ERA WHIP
SP Johan Santana(NYM - SP)
SP --empty--
RP Jonathan Papelbon (Bos - RP)
RP --empty-
P Félix Hernández (Sea - SP)
P Carlos Mármol (ChC - RP)
BN Brad Lidge (Phi - RP) DL
DL Scott Kazmir(TB - SP) DL
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Re: Non TR Fantasy Baseball Advice

Postposted on Thu Mar 27, 2008 1:09 pm

Roster size is only 18? How many teams are in the league? You're very thin on pitching...but I would think you'd need starters. Is this a roto league or head to head? If its roto, you're at a huge disadvantage if you don't invest all 1250 innings (or however many innings the league allows).
Thats a pretty scary and balanced offense. But you only have about 650 innings on your roster. If you could only have 18 players on your roster, and its a small league (8 teams or less)...I think I would dump at least one hitter to waivers (bye bye Juan Pierre) for an SP.
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Re: Non TR Fantasy Baseball Advice

Postposted on Thu Mar 27, 2008 1:22 pm

Turkina wrote:I think I would dump at least one hitter to waivers (bye bye Juan Pierre) for an SP.
~Turkina


He's got four 1B, which IMO is at least one too many. It really handicaps your roster, because you almost have to have a 1B at the Util slot. I'd whack Carlos Pena or Gonzalez.
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Re: Non TR Fantasy Baseball Advice

Postposted on Thu Mar 27, 2008 1:27 pm

Pena and Gonzalez could potentially improve someone else's roster. Possibly too valuable to go into the waiver pool. What has Juan Pierre done for anyone lately? In my mind, outfielders are cheaper than first basemen, since its a larger pool (90 starting OF versus 30 starting 1B).

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Re: Non TR Fantasy Baseball Advice

Postposted on Thu Mar 27, 2008 2:05 pm

So it is a head to head league with 8 managers, 18 players plus 1 DL

I picked up Pedro Martinez to fill in one SP spot (he was the highest ranked pitcher)

I was hoping to trade one of my 1B for a P

Any suggestions on who I should target?
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Re: Non TR Fantasy Baseball Advice

Postposted on Thu Mar 27, 2008 2:18 pm

What has Juan Pierre done for anyone lately?

He gives Bill Plaschke a huge boner.

Of the position players, he's the biggest waste of space. He's not worth starting when your other OF have off days since he doesnt' drive in runs, and especially considering you've got an empty spot for some pitchers.
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