Schilling calls it quits

Tech Report Fantasy Sports League and general sports discussion.

Moderator: Captain Ned

Schilling calls it quits

Postposted on Mon Mar 23, 2009 11:33 am

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090323/ap_ ... ng_retires

So now my question is: is he a Hall of Famer? He was certainly the most dominant pitcher in the game for a stretch, and he was the linchpin on several winners. But, does he have enough numbers? My bet is he'll make it but not right away.
YOU CAN RUPTURE SOMEONE'S SPLEEN WITH A WATER BALLOON!!!!
idchafee
His Holy Gerbilness
Gold subscriber
 
 
Posts: 13871
Joined: Thu Sep 25, 2003 8:39 am
Location: Chicago, IL

Re: Schilling calls it quits

Postposted on Mon Mar 23, 2009 12:30 pm

He was the only good thing going in Philly most of the time he was there (yes they went to and lost the world series, but they were mostly a sub-.500 team in the 90s). He and Johnson were the best 1-2 starter combo in the league when he was in AZ. And he had a bloody foot in Boston with a couple really good years. If you look at like 1993 to 2004, he was one of the best pitchers around. So yeah, he'll get in. First time ballot? Maybe. He was one of the few names that you absolutely in no way associate with roids, which might help his chances at the first time-ballot.
I do not understand what I do. For what I want to do, I do not do. But what I hate, I do.
derFunkenstein
Gerbil God
Gold subscriber
 
 
Posts: 21261
Joined: Fri Feb 21, 2003 9:13 pm
Location: WHAT?

Re: Schilling calls it quits

Postposted on Mon Mar 23, 2009 9:29 pm

derFunkenstein wrote:He was one of the few names that you absolutely in no way associate with roids, which might help his chances at the first time-ballot.


That and he was not in any other kind of trouble with anything or anyone. He played the game and was a good role model for his entire career.
For those that fought for it, freedom has a taste that the protected will never know.
-Unknown Veteran
Hoser
Lord High Gerbil
 
Posts: 8301
Joined: Sat Mar 02, 2002 7:00 pm
Location: In a lab playing with blood

Re: Schilling calls it quits

Postposted on Mon Mar 23, 2009 9:34 pm

I wouldn't go quite THAT far, Hoser - true, he kept his nose clean in more ways than just roids, but he has quite the mouth on him and has some enemas in the media. Be clean, do no harm, do all the good you can...and keep your head down with your trap shut. He had 3 of the 4.

The talking heads on ESPN today were saying that he may not get in because he has a relatively mediocre win total - low 200s. So I started looking around. Wins depend on your team scoring runs, which they weren't all that good at in Philly in the 90s. Yes, his win totals aren't all that impressive, but he consistently posted an ERA that was close to a full run below the league average - which is fantastic. And he didn't do that over a few innings, either...he had lots of seasons pitching more than 220 innings. That's superhuman today, and it was still above average for the time.
I do not understand what I do. For what I want to do, I do not do. But what I hate, I do.
derFunkenstein
Gerbil God
Gold subscriber
 
 
Posts: 21261
Joined: Fri Feb 21, 2003 9:13 pm
Location: WHAT?

Re: Schilling calls it quits

Postposted on Mon Mar 23, 2009 10:20 pm

Compare Schilling's stats to Catfish Hunter's stats. Roughly comparable, with Schilling looking a bit better IMO. Catfish is in the HOF with Schilling-level stats while from an era that usually looked for much better stats.

Schilling's in.
It is one of the blessings of old friends that you can afford to be stupid with them. Ralph Waldo Emerson.
Captain Ned
Global Moderator
Gold subscriber
 
 
Posts: 20120
Joined: Wed Jan 16, 2002 7:00 pm
Location: Vermont, USA

Re: Schilling calls it quits

Postposted on Mon Mar 23, 2009 10:52 pm

derFunkenstein wrote:I wouldn't go quite THAT far, Hoser - true, he kept his nose clean in more ways than just roids, but he has quite the mouth on him and has some enemas in the media.


enemas in the media? Yeah, some celebrities really have to take it up the ___ from the media sometimes. :D
ssidbroadcast
Graphmaster Gerbil
Silver subscriber
 
 
Posts: 1399
Joined: Sun Jul 08, 2007 10:42 pm
Location: Seattle, WA

Re: Schilling calls it quits

Postposted on Tue Mar 24, 2009 9:57 am

Captain Ned wrote:Compare Schilling's stats to Catfish Hunter's stats. Roughly comparable, with Schilling looking a bit better IMO. Catfish is in the HOF with Schilling-level stats while from an era that usually looked for much better stats.

Schilling's in.

Two wrongs don't make a right. Although, three lefts do.

ssidbroadcast, I might have misspelled a word. I won't confirm or deny, though. It's up to the reader to decide.
I do not understand what I do. For what I want to do, I do not do. But what I hate, I do.
derFunkenstein
Gerbil God
Gold subscriber
 
 
Posts: 21261
Joined: Fri Feb 21, 2003 9:13 pm
Location: WHAT?

Re: Schilling calls it quits

Postposted on Tue Mar 24, 2009 11:31 am

Captain Ned wrote:Compare Schilling's stats to Catfish Hunter's stats. Roughly comparable, with Schilling looking a bit better IMO. Catfish is in the HOF with Schilling-level stats while from an era that usually looked for much better stats.
Schilling's closest comparables are Kevin Brown and Bob Welch, who aren't ever going to be in the HOF, and Orel Hershiser, who is borderline, as well as John Smoltz, who will be. Among those already there, Catfish Hunter is in the conversation but Don Drysdale and Dazzy Vance are better comparisons. So, that doesn't tell us much.

But you look at some of the rate stats that impress the HOF voters and set the minimum IP high enough to reflect a long career, and Schilling looks pretty good. Career K/9, minimum 2500 IP, the list goes: Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, Nolan Ryan, Curt Schilling (followed by Roger Clemens, David Cone, John Smoltz). That's some good company to be in.
derFunkenstein wrote:The talking heads on ESPN today were saying that he may not get in because he has a relatively mediocre win total - low 200s. So I started looking around. Wins depend on your team scoring runs, which they weren't all that good at in Philly in the 90s. Yes, his win totals aren't all that impressive, but he consistently posted an ERA that was close to a full run below the league average - which is fantastic. And he didn't do that over a few innings, either...he had lots of seasons pitching more than 220 innings. That's superhuman today, and it was still above average for the time.
Wins really are a stupid way to evaluate a pitcher precisely because, as you say, it's really a team stat. For that matter, ERA is pretty bogus since it's partly a team stat too, in the same way that RBIs are. There are much better metrics these days for defense-independent pitching and actual offensive production.

But the HOF voters mostly don't use them. Mostly they don't even know about them. So when we're trying to gauge a player's HOF candidacy, we have to evaluate not how good a player he actually was, but how good he looked to the HOF voters.

Bill James has concocted a variety of evaluations to try to calculate this the way the HOF voters seem to. (In other words, not evaluating the performance in real terms, but in terms of the perception it creates in HOF voters: the goal is not to say how good the guy would be compared to some other guy you could add to your team, which is the point of most other stats, but to predict how likely his numbers get him into the HOF). The "Bold Ink" test gives points for leading the league in various categories (four points for leading in wins, ERA or Ks, three points for leading in innings pitched, 2 points for complete games, etc). This is obviously weighed towards having long careers and playing in earlier eras when the leagues were smaller. The average HOF pitcher accumulates a 40 by this measure, and Schilling has 42. James broadened that to a "Grey Ink" test to include ranking in the top ten in those categories in any year; Schilling hits 205 on that while the average HOFer is 185. James eventually elaborated that into a huge calculation he called the Hall of Fame Monitor that does a pretty good job of predicting who gets into the Hall. Anyone who scores above 100 on that calculation is likely to get in, and anyone over 130 is a virtual lock. Schilling sits at 171.

So yeah, I'd say there's no doubt he gets in. But first ballot? Now you get into a bunch of crap where the voters treat the HOF like an onion or a russian nesting doll -- with inner sanctums inside ever-holier "sub-Halls" -- and play their own stupid reasoning games "If X wasn't a first ballot HOFer then nobody is" or "Y didn't get in on the first ballot so Z doesn't get in either." Just look at the Rickey Henderson vote. So trying to predict the first ballot is more an exercise in cranky-old-man psychoanalysis than anything else, and that makes it pretty meaningless.
UberGerbil
Gerbil Khan
 
Posts: 9973
Joined: Thu Jun 19, 2003 3:11 pm

Re: Schilling calls it quits

Postposted on Tue Mar 24, 2009 2:31 pm

UberGerbil wrote:Wins really are a stupid way to evaluate a pitcher precisely because, as you say, it's really a team stat. For that matter, ERA is pretty bogus since it's partly a team stat too, in the same way that RBIs are. There are much better metrics these days for defense-independent pitching and actual offensive production.

Yes, I did miss some more important stats, like a career 1.1-ish WHIP and as you mentioned K per 9. There's also dERA which is defense adjusted and ERA+ which is park adjusted, but I'm not aware of any runs per 9 stat that's adjusted for both. Regardless, he ranks pretty well with both.

I think he's an HoFer, but he's too busy getting people riled up to get them to vote for him.
I do not understand what I do. For what I want to do, I do not do. But what I hate, I do.
derFunkenstein
Gerbil God
Gold subscriber
 
 
Posts: 21261
Joined: Fri Feb 21, 2003 9:13 pm
Location: WHAT?


Return to TR Sports

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest