Randy Johnson/Tom Glavine

[SecretMaster]

Just two things in the baseball news I feel are worth discussing.

Firstly, Randy Johnson and reaching 300wins. Methinks he can retire happily now. And he sure pitched a hell of a game for the big 300. I wonder how old I'll be when I see the next 300-win pitcher.

And then there is Tom Glavine getting an about-face from the Braves. At least in my eyes, it was an entirely cold and horrible way to treat a player who has given so much to your organization. His stuff may not be as great as it used to be, and it may be time for him to call him quits. But at least give him the benefit and respect of going out as a Brave. It's a shame that at the end of the career he has this kind of falling out with the team he has spent many years with.

[themattman]

I do not think we will see another 300-win pitcher for a long time, if ever.

I would like to also add in Jamie Moyer's 250th win

[Skrying]

Tom Glavine alienated a lot of his loyal Braves fan base when he left for the Mets for a big contract a few years back. While I think this was a bit harsh (and they should have been honest, his stuff now isn't worth what they'd have to pay) I don't think it was terrible. The guy has treated the game as a business his entire career. They had no room for him, taking the money on directly hurts the team and this wasn't simply about retiring as a Brave. He wants to play. If he was retiring they would have released him and gave him a token contract... but that's clearly not what he wants to do.

[sluggo]

El Unito Grande's quote in the local paper was pretty good this morning: "Only 211 more to catch Cy Young!"

[TheEmrys]

I can go either way with Glavine. His velocity is way down and a comeback from injury at his age is unlikely. It was the right choice. Its not too terribly different from when Nomar was traded from the Red Sox. Tough emotional choice, easy business choice.

Randy Johnson has actually been pretty good. Most of the traditional metrics for baseball players are trash anyway. While clubs that aren't particularly savvy still rely on ERA, his FIP (Fielding Independant Pitching) is a respectable 4.55. His K/9 is still over 8.5 and his walk rates are still in line with his career numbers. He's been unlucky has his BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) is at .309. His HR rate is up due to his that silly little park he's playing in. He might not be considering retirement if he were playing in a more pitcher friendly park.

[sluggo]

His HR rate is up due to his that silly little park he's playing in. He might not be considering retirement if he were playing in a more pitcher friendly park.

Huh? AT&T park has the lowest HR rate in the majors, 1.48 per game last year. Lotsa damp, cool, heavy air that rarely blows out. Of course, half the batters are wearing Giants uniforms, so that pulls the average down some.

[MaxTheLimit]

It's weird to think Johnson only had 3 20 wins season with a win total that high.
It's a little early to say if Linsecum (sp?) or Greinke will amount to years of dominance, as they are still a bit younge, and are only now becoming rather dominant.
Pettite is a little old to be making a charge.
If any current player may reach the mark, I'd say Halliday has a good chance...if he gets on a couple good teams within the next few years that is.

[Skrying]

There's basically no chance Halladay will reach 300 wins. He's at 160 for his career and he's 32, his winning percentage is at a very good 67.6% (that's actually really good). What what everyone has been saying CC Sabathia is the most likely currently playing to reach 300 but even that is a real long stretch, he's 29 with 122 wins. But yeah... they're not going to reach it.

[TheEmrys]

I can't wait for wins to no longer matter for a pitcher. Worst metric ever.

[MaxTheLimit]

There's basically no chance Halladay will reach 300 wins. He's at 160 for his career and he's 32, his winning percentage is at a very good 67.6% (that's actually really good). What what everyone has been saying CC Sabathia is the most likely currently playing to reach 300 but even that is a real long stretch, he's 29 with 122 wins. But yeah... they're not going to reach it.

I'd say Roy has more chance than CC does. However it would be quite a feat for either. CC has the fact he is playing for the Yankees going for him. Most every year they have the money to make a good team every year. He does still lack a 20 win season though, and it doesn't look like it's going to happen this year either. He'll need a couple 20 win seasons and string together a few 16-17+ plus win seasons together the rest of his career to have a chance.

As for Halliday he has age working against him at this point. a rather poor rookie season, combined with two injury riddled seasons kinda knocked his number beyond what would make that 300 attainable. The thing he has working for him is that he's managed a couple 20+ win seasons with some rather poorly Jays teams. It looks as though he'll probably reach that mark again this year barring a terrible slump. I would say there is two main things that will have to happen for him to reach the 300 mark. First he will have to play, and continue to breach the 17 win mark until he reaches 42. I'm guessing he doesn't have more than one maybe two 20 win seasons left...if even that. So consistent 17 win season for the next decade....The odds are against that. Second he will need to get to a consistently competitive team, especially as he is now cresting his skilled years. Teams like the Bosox, or the Yanks (as much as it sucks for me to say it) would probably have good teams for the next bunch of years and still manage to squeak out some wins where being on a weaker team he would not. There is a LOT that would have to fall into place. Of course if he manages to play effectively to 45 like Johnson, his odds go up. But that in itself is pretty unlikely.

[derFunkenstein]

The Braves did Glavine a favor by giving him a minor league deal in an attempt to come back in the first place. It's pure nostalgia to think that Glavine today is better than Tommy Hanson. He's got a sub-2.00 ERA in AAA and strikes out something like 12 to 13 per 9 innings. I'm not saying he's already better than Glavine, but he's certainly excelled at the highest non-MLB level you can reach.

You can bet if he gets lit up the first couple times out the Braves will probably wish they'd rethought the release, but they're going for the division here. Glavine's 2007 meltdown was a big contributor to the Mets not winning the East, and getting hurt last year doesn't exactly instill confidence.

But like I said, they did him a big favor. He auditioned for a starter's job and acquitted himself alright, at least at the A-ball level. There are teams that need starting pitching that will take a shot at him. But at this point, you're getting the name of "Tom Glavine", not the pitcher he was in the 90s. I always liked Smoltz and Maddux better anyway.

TheEmrys is dead on about wins being totally useless. You can go out there and throw a 20-strike out, no hitter, but if you get three fielding errors behind you and a guy scores and your offense puts up no runs, you lose. Stupid, stupid metric. Probably a worse one is at some point late in 2006 Mark Mulder led all of baseball in inducing GIDPs. That means he was letting guys get on base, which is bad news, but Mike Shannon thought it was fantastic. WHIP is at least a partially defensive-dependant metric but it's alot better than wins, and K:BB ratio (especially combined with K/9 and BB/9) and HR/9 are also very important.

[Skrying]

I don't think wins is a "metric." Fantasy baseball fans don't use wins to talk about who is having the best season. Average fans who only care about their home team talk about the number of wins a pitcher has. It's a stat, something very easy for your average fan to grasp.

[TheEmrys]

I don't think wins is a "metric." Fantasy baseball fans don't use wins to talk about who is having the best season. Average fans who only care about their home team talk about the number of wins a pitcher has. It's a stat, something very easy for your average fan to grasp.

Its a metric for the HOF. Stupid sportswriters. They are learning, though. Sportscasters always harp on it as well. 20-game winner = worthless*.





* See Jose Lima and Mike Hampton

[derFunkenstein]

It's a stat, something very easy for your average fan to grasp.

Which is why the entirety of the rest of your post is wrong. EVERYONE "gets" wins - he pitched for the winning team and he was the guy pitching (officially) when the team took their final lead of the game. Unfortunately the average fan equates pitchers with high numbers of wins with being good. Case in point: Bronson Arroyo is currently tied for the NL leader in wins. Is he "OMGAWESOME????" Hell no. You know who he's tied with? Contrast that with another guy on the list (there are 5 with 7 according to baseball-reference.com) - Johann Santana. They've both tossed roughly the same number of innings, but Santana blows Arroyo away in pretty much any important category.

[MaxTheLimit]

I'm actually not sure I see anywhere in this thread where it has been suggested that it is a good metric. I'm kinda wondering why talking about wins as a metric was brought up...

[SecretMaster]

Well I think most of us are largely aware of the shortcomings of using Wins as a metric to judge pitchers. That being said, it is still one hell of an achievement for any pitcher to hit 300 Wins in their career. I think it is arguably the hardest milestone for a baseball player to achieve.

As for potential candidates, what do you all think of Tampa Bay's David Price? He's young and has some command issues. But I think once he adjusts and settles into the big leagues he is going to be one dominant pitcher. Especially at the age of 23, he could possibly do it.

[Skrying]

It's a stat, something very easy for your average fan to grasp.

Which is why the entirety of the rest of your post is wrong. EVERYONE "gets" wins - he pitched for the winning team and he was the guy pitching (officially) when the team took their final lead of the game. Unfortunately the average fan equates pitchers with high numbers of wins with being good. Case in point: Bronson Arroyo is currently tied for the NL leader in wins. Is he "OMGAWESOME????" Hell no. You know who he's tied with? Contrast that with another guy on the list (there are 5 with 7 according to baseball-reference.com) - Johann Santana. They've both tossed roughly the same number of innings, but Santana blows Arroyo away in pretty much any important category.

Huh? I have absolutely no idea what you're trying to point out here. I said specifically that wins don't much matter to someone who knows metrics and plays a lot of fantasy baseball. Stats are your average line you see on the TV screen, people know what ERA and Wins are for a pitcher. They know what batting average, RBIs and HR's are for a hitter. Those are stats, there what you saw on baseball cards as a kid. Metrics, something used to measure someone by those who matter or honestly care, are a different animal entirely. Which lines up entirely with what you've said and I said. I just disagree with even considering "wins" as a metric, it's honestly not. No one making real decisions or people who invest time in fantasy baseball use wins as an important measurement.

As for another pitcher reaching 300; it's not about there being dominant pitchers, those still and will exist. It is about how the pitching rotation works these days. You'd simply have to play extremely long AND be very dominant over that time frame. The next pitcher to reach 300, especially if it's within the next 20 or so years, would likely end up in the argument of greatest of all time because 300 wins will be one of those "impossible" records/goals. Something set back in the old days that doesn't fit within the realistic boundaries of today's game.

[MaxTheLimit]

That's exactly it. Pitchers like Nolan Ryan and Randy Johnson had to play 20+ major league seasons to have their win totals where they are. Nolan Ryan has a couple 40+ game seasons in his career. How many pitchers can have so many consecutive successful seasons after 21 years in the majors like Randy Johnson? Who, for that matter will be playing until the age of 45 like Randy is? Most workhorse pitchers don't play more than 35 games in an injury free year these days. a 40+ game season really never happens anymore.
An average 15 wins a season for 20 years is what it takes for 300 wins. I can't think of any major league pitcher right now that has more than 3 seasons and a average win per hear matching that. Halliday is 13 (though if you look at his productive years since hitting his stride in 2002 it's more like 16 wins) and for CC he's been a 14 game per year winner. Unfortunately for CC he has a few hit and miss years, and Halliday just became dominant too late in his career.
I think they are definitely elite pitchers that are going to the hall when they are done what you look at their stats as a whole. Strike outs, walks, era, WHIP. For both pitchers they have some damned impressive numbers no matter what stat you look at.
I am interested to see how this new lincicum (sp?) fellow does over the course of his career. He has a perfect delivery and can probably be dominant for a long time and avoid injury throughout his career. If so, who knows how far he could go.

[derFunkenstein]

Huh? I have absolutely no idea what you're trying to point out here.

I missed the word "fantasy" in the post I snipped that out of. My bad, but now you're wrong for a different reason: most fantasy leagues (including TR's) use wins as a tracked stat.

[Turkina]

Man I'm late to this party...

I can't think of any major league pitcher right now that has more than 3 seasons and a average win per hear matching that. Halliday is 13 (though if you look at his productive years since hitting his stride in 2002 it's more like 16 wins) and for CC he's been a 14 game per year winner. Unfortunately for CC he has a few hit and miss years, and Halliday just became dominant too late in his career.

But, since we've already decided wins is a luck-based measure, then wins-per-season is just as luck based. That is, theres no such thing as a 14-win-per-season pitcher - the pitcher will perform to his history, and however many wins he gets will be dependent on a lot of external factors. I think we can both agree that CC is now in a better position to pick up wins, and, who knows, maybe the blue jays will develop a competent offense at some point. But, it is indeed true that to win 300 games, you need to be around for a loooong time.

He has a perfect delivery and can probably be dominant for a long time and avoid injury throughout his career.

Timmy was on my "do not draft list" because his early workload and mechanics worry me. I mostly agree with the analysis here http://www.chrisoleary.com/projects/Baseball/Pitching/ProfessionalPitcherAnalyses/TimLincecum.html but I think his elbow/shoulder loading could definitely be problematic, especially given his workload pattern.