Time to buy AMD?

[Disco]

I know AMD has had a really bad year. But all the rumours for both the xbox720 and ps4 indicate that the hardware will be AMD 8 core cpu and an AMD gpu. I was tempted to buy AMD back when it was ~$2, but bought RIM instead (has worked out great so far...). But now I'm tempted to jump back on the AMD wagon. I've always had a soft spot for AMD (since back in the ATI 8500 days). Now, I'm hoping to make some money off them too.

Is 2013 THE year for AMD? What do you think?

[yogibbear]

I think MS and Sony are getting very good deals from AMD for the bulk purchases. Though they're still probably making decent cashflow from the deals.... just don't expect it to be at similar levels as enterprise hardware.

[Flying Fox]

XBox 360 uses a licensed design from AMD and Microsoft actually contracts the manufacturing themselves. AMD did not profit a lot from just selling the base design. If this is going to be the same case for the next generation console, I don't think it is going to make much difference.

But if you are just pure stock trading, then there may be some sort of technical rebound (because of all the selling) that you may make a quick buck on, similar to RIM. Fundamentally they both look bad.

[just brew it!]

IMO they're a long shot. But if you've got some extra money to invest and an appetite for risk, why not?

[Flying Fox]

More like gambling than investing if you were to ask me.

[just brew it!]

More like gambling than investing

From the individual investor's perspective, buying stock -- *any* stock -- is gambling, pretty much by definition. Thinking of it in any other way is deluding yourself. And like other forms of gambling, the odds favor the house -- the brokers, bankers, and HFT firms still get their cut whether you win or lose.

[sschaem]

All those points are already priced in.

Big movement in stock are from new rumors or unexpected outcomes.

What could sink the stock ? Another "one time" charge like the contract cancellation with global foundry
What could raise the stock? An Acquisition offer from Microsoft

I can see AMD going below 1$ a share on bad new, but ultimately settle to $2
Upside, I see $7 on acquisition. AMD left on its own , ~4$ of their CES plan are executed perfectly.

"Gentlemen ... place you bet"

[Disco]

Here's my (very) optimistic view. Because it seems that AMD will be used in all three consoles, that should push game development to be much more favorable to the AMD designs. Performance should gradually become 'better' on AMD gpu systems, and also developers will focus more on the multicore useage of their software. The gap in game performance between AMD and Intel cpus should shrink, and the Radeon GPUs will be basis that 'all' games will be developed on. The recent 'antistutter' driver developments for the Radeons are also a big boon. Of course, whether or not any of these performance improvements will be reflected in stock price is a bit leap of faith, but I do think their market share should improve over time.

I know that they didn't make big $$ in the past with their hardware in previous systems such as the xbox360 and wii, but one would think that all these design 'wins' can only translate into steady cash flows. There is no downside to this information.

Even if they only go up to $4, that's a pretty hefty gain.

And holy crap! I can't believe I sold 1/2 my RIM shares back just before Christmas. Why didn't I hold on?? At least I still have some left.

[Chrispy_]

I don't have any faith in the AMD management, which is what really affects the share prices.

I'll be avoiding AMD in the same way that HP should be avoided like the plague at the moment.

[sschaem]

It seem AMD cant get away from GF... Unless I'm mistaken AMD is saying that they still own GF 454 million from making 28nm chip at TSMC instead of waiting for GF to get their 28nm together.

Crazy how GF got no penalty for not being able to produce 32nm chip back then and not offering 28nm on time. So it seem all in all 2012 GF collect over 700 million in penalty from AMD.

Limited waiver of exclusivity from GF - 706 million paid
Q4 276 million for part of their penalty for their "take-or-pay" obligation (Who ever signed that deal should be on fire)

Way back in 2011 I think all the GF charges totaled a quarter billion.

GF almost killed AMD from not being able to make 32nm chips. and I think thats how they lost the Apple llano contract.

Seem to me AMD would have been better of to burn their Dresden facility to the ground ??

Oh well AMD, only half a billion in "one time" charge to go...

BTW, GF is fully operating as AMD breaking their contract only opened capacity to competitors. GF is really ramming it into AMD behind.

[Ushio01]

I know AMD has had a really bad year. But all the rumours for both the xbox720 and ps4 indicate that the hardware will be AMD 8 core cpu and an AMD gpu. I was tempted to buy AMD back when it was ~$2, but bought RIM instead (has worked out great so far...). But now I'm tempted to jump back on the AMD wagon. I've always had a soft spot for AMD (since back in the ATI 8500 days). Now, I'm hoping to make some money off them too.

Is 2013 THE year for AMD? What do you think?

They had $1.3 billion cash at the end of the 3rd quarter 2012 and that decreased by $300 million to $1 billion at the end of the 4th quarter 2012. So do they have enough cash to survive till the next gen consoles are released which will probably be in the 4th quarter 2013 at the earliest, Any guesses people?

[BIF]

As an investor, if I have to ask myself "do they have enough cash to survive until such-and-such product is released?", then I don't deserve to make any money. Earnings, earnings, earnings. And that's not the same as revenue; everybody would do well to learn the difference. Even after a year or two of increasing earnings, most stocks still have a lot of get-up-and-go left in them.

Ignoring earnings is like guessing. Might as well play the lotto.

[Disco]

Well, I never bought any back when I was considering it... And now I'm left hanging my head. I would have doubled my money. That's what I get for 'listening' to you guys.

Does anyone have any particular theories explaining why AMD has surged recently?

[Ryhadar]

There was a rumor going around the Intel would buy AMD. http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdail ... vy-volume/

I wouldn't kick yourself too hard, honestly. AMD's stock is pretty volatile.

[R2P2]

The Xbox rumours also apparently had something to do with the stock price being up. Yesterday I decided that didn't make sense, given how little effect the PS4 rumours and announcement had, so I sold for a 60% return. Then an analyst said what I was thinking and the price went down 15%. YAY timing!

[wintermane666]

Amd has about as much chance of making it 10 more years as I have of marryin lady gaga.

[Disco]

Amd has about as much chance of making it 10 more years as I have of marryin lady gaga.

I've heard she is available, but do you really want to hang around all that rotting meat...?

It seems funny that the xbox/PS4 information would be affecting the stock now. That information has been out for quite awhile. The stock is definitely volatile, and so I opted to buy some Apple at the time, thinking that it wouldn't drop any more...

Still waiting to break even on that one.