The days of integrated graphics chipsets are numbered, according to Jon Peddie Research. The firm expects motherboard-based IGPs will have all but vanished by 2013, passing the torch of barely adequate graphics capabilities to processors with graphics cores built in.
JPR forecasts that IGPs will only account for 20% of the market in 2011, dropping to "less than one percent" by 2013. Last year, by contrast, integrated GPUs reportedly outsold their discrete brethren by about two to one (67% to 33%). The transition away from chipset-level GPUs will begin with Intel's 32nm Westmere processors, which should launch early next year and include a GPU die on the CPU package. AMD will follow up in 2011 with a whole line of hybrids—Orochi for enthusiast desktops, Liano for mainstream desktops and notebooks, and Ontario for ultraportables.
JPR pretty much contradicts what Nvidia CEO Jen-Hsun Huang stated a year ago: that the move of graphics cores from chipsets to CPUs wouldn't change anything for Nvidia, and customers would happily "double-attach" CPU-GPU chimeras with chipset-based IGPs because the latter would be more powerful. Huang pointed to the longer design cycles of processors as evidence that the GPUs built inside CPUs wouldn't be updated very often.
Of course, updating Westmere's graphics without altering the microprocessor portion might not be particularly difficult, since the two elements will reside on separate pieces of silicon. Either way, Nvidia seems to have changed its tune. We reported this morning that the company now sees itself launching an x86 system-on-a-chip in two to three years—right when JPR expects chipset-based IGPs to be in their death throes.
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