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Captain Ned
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Re: Stay Safe!

Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:30 pm

just brew it! wrote:
Surely you mean Katrina?

Bad Google. The years remain the same despite my ineptitude.

That said, despite my inability to name the named storm, it has been since 2005 since the US mainland took a good whack from a hurricane. Odds, chaotic processes, and all that.
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Re: Stay Safe!

Tue Sep 05, 2017 2:18 am

Katrina wasn't the last hurricane of Category 3 strength to hit the US in 2005. Rita made land fall in 2005 as a Category 3 in the US. This storm was at one point feared to hit New Orleans about a month after Katrina. Luckily it made landfall in western Louisiana, sparing New Orleans the worst. But that's not all! Wilma hit Florida as a Category 3 in October.

The one thing that was unique about Katrina, Rita and Wilma was that they were all Category 5s while in the ocean before weakening before hitting the US. The strength of these hurricanes is judged by their wind speed not by their rain fall. Katrina judged by rain fall exceeded that of some Category 5s when they made landfall.

Irma does look like it is on a path to squeeze into the gulf. While they haven't made a forcast for what it would do in the gulf, in all probability it would bring in more rain to Texas. The exceptions that would spare Texas some rain would be for a dramatic u-turn after entering the gulf and hit the western side of Florida.
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Re: Stay Safe!

Tue Sep 05, 2017 5:29 am

Irma could be really bad. Harvey broke up and dropped to a tropical depression after hitting land, then blew up to a Cat 4 in mere days. If Irma enters the hot gulf as a Cat 4 then it's going to be a supercharged Cat 5 by the time it hits something.

just brew it! wrote:
[That's 30 cars spread out over 10 lanes though. So only 3 deep.


If we're counting those, then there are photos with >140 cars in line with the line continuing off the edge of the screen. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DIlEeeSUEAA3rSH.jpg:large :lol:

I'm just glad the gas crunch is is over, around 50% of stations in the nearby zip codes have gas now and it's increasing quickly. Shell gas was the most aggressive on markups, usually around 50 cents at most stations over the original price. On the other hand Costco only marked up by 15 cents.
 
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Re: Stay Safe!

Tue Sep 05, 2017 9:28 am

Captain Ned wrote:
just brew it! wrote:
Surely you mean Katrina?

That said, despite my inability to name the named storm, it has been since 2005 since the US mainland took a good whack from a hurricane. Odds, chaotic processes, and all that.


Yeah, 2005 was a rough year for the gulf states with multiple hurricanes. Growing up in FL I heard the old timers who lived there for many years speak of 10 year cycles when there would be periods of relatively low activity of tropical storms and then seasons with many storms. Maybe corresponding with solar cycles or something. Anyway my family in North FL is taking precaution and stocking up on water and gas for generators. They are far enough inland with no risk to flooding but hurricanes can spawn mini-twisters that will tear up the electric infrastructure.
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Re: Stay Safe!

Wed Sep 06, 2017 7:43 pm

https://twitter.com/i/moments/905487561182908416

The last flight into and out of San Juan. Full flight on the way back north. 52 minutes on the ground, and huge brass ones on the part of the crew.
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Re: Stay Safe!

Wed Sep 06, 2017 8:50 pm

Perkele, that looked close. Can't believe they even flew out there to begin with.
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Re: Stay Safe!

Wed Sep 06, 2017 9:09 pm

bthylafh wrote:
Perkele, that looked close. Can't believe they even flew out there to begin with.

Three other planes turned back, hence the brass on the Delta crew.
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Re: Stay Safe!

Wed Sep 06, 2017 9:57 pm

There are old pilots and bold pilots, but there are no old, bold pilots. Some risks aren't worth it.
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Re: Stay Safe!

Thu Sep 07, 2017 8:02 am

They threaded the needle and winds were within limits. Fast turnaround was key to getting them out in time.
 
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Re: Stay Safe!

Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:38 pm

I had to cut short my vacation in South Florida. Even setting out before dawn this morning, the evacuation traffic was horrible. It took nine hours to make the first third of my 660-mile trip. Driving 17 hours in traffic wears me out.
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Re: Stay Safe!

Fri Sep 08, 2017 7:17 am

The track has shifted quite a bit west over the last 18 hours, so we're expecting to get it pretty rough. Going to board up the windows tonight. All other prep stuff is taken care of. We cancelled half of work today and will probably cancel Monday shortly. Certainly brings back memories of 2004, but now I have a wife and 2 small kids to be responsible for, which fundamentally changes my mental state of apprehension.
 
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Re: Stay Safe!

Fri Sep 08, 2017 11:34 am

Dude, if I was you I'd be gone already, but I've heard a lot of people say the same kind of thing about the earthquakes here in California. The difference is nobody knows when those are going to hit. :lol:
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Re: Stay Safe!

Fri Sep 08, 2017 1:37 pm

If you have the time, you may as well use it to prepare properly. If you rush to evacuate, you might miss something important.
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Re: Stay Safe!

Fri Sep 08, 2017 2:11 pm

Orlando is likely to experience category 1 wind conditions, a day and a half of heavy rain and zero possibility of storm surge flooding. The only people in Orlando who should be evacuating should be those living in substandard structures (tents, RVs, mobile homes, etc.) or requiring electricity to survive. Evacuation should only be as far as a solid structure (family or friends with a solid house, public shelter, hotel, etc.). However, anyone who was in Florida in 2004 and 2005 should know that there are preparations to complete before the storm arrives.

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/ ... icane-irma
Last edited by JustAnEngineer on Fri Sep 08, 2017 4:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Stay Safe!

Fri Sep 08, 2017 4:13 pm

Yup. What he said. No real need to evacuate. No trees are within reach of the center of our house, so the worst case is damage from flying debris. I'm boarding up all the windows to prevent that damage. No real flood risk, we get 4-6" of rain close to annually, so the storm drain system can withstand that.
 
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Re: Stay Safe!

Sat Sep 09, 2017 2:47 pm

Usacomp2k3 wrote:
The track has shifted quite a bit west over the last 18 hours, so we're expecting to get it pretty rough. Going to board up the windows tonight. All other prep stuff is taken care of. We cancelled half of work today and will probably cancel Monday shortly. Certainly brings back memories of 2004, but now I have a wife and 2 small kids to be responsible for, which fundamentally changes my mental state of apprehension.


That's the other thing, the current forecast is lining up with what the European model predicted days ago. The US models are so far off they were skewing the predicted average eastward out to sea. https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/09 ... cane-irma/
 
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Re: Stay Safe!

Sat Sep 09, 2017 5:07 pm

All done prep wise. Went way overkill probably. Now it is just a waiting game.
 
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Re: Stay Safe!

Sat Sep 09, 2017 6:51 pm

First of all, good luck to all people threatened by this... hope people get away from this as unscathed as possible.

I have a question, and I'm not trying to troll or flamebait, so please don't take this the wrong way. My folks' home -as most- withstood a 6,6R scale earthquake in Greece, back in the late 90s. Enormous magnitudes of energy. Most houses in the country are built to withstand serious earthquakes. I'm wondering, if we can build houses that withstand 6 and 7R of earthquake (not all of them of course - there are still earthquakes that could level entire cities, a great deal depends on focal depth and other factors), isn't it also possible to weather-proof homes from such devastating hurricanes, to some degree? Is there some sort of relevant regulation in affected areas, as there are earthquake resistance regulations in Greece and Japan?

Again, my wishes that this passes first and foremost without casualties, and secondly with few damages....
Last edited by christos_thski on Sat Sep 09, 2017 7:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Re: Stay Safe!

Sat Sep 09, 2017 6:59 pm

Houses in that area do have some extra lumber support going on, but for the most part it's just rinse and repeat with damaged property. A discussion could be had about whether the cost and upkeep of trying to make waterproof indestructible houses would be less than repairs, but I'll assume that the market has already accepted that it's not.
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Re: Stay Safe!

Sat Sep 09, 2017 7:07 pm

Heiwashin wrote:
Houses in that area do have some extra lumber support going on, but for the most part it's just rinse and repeat with damaged property. A discussion could be had about whether the cost and upkeep of trying to make waterproof indestructible houses would be less than repairs, but I'll assume that the market has already accepted that it's not.


Concrete houses with steel reinforcement would go a huge way, without a skyrocketing cost of ownership, I think? You don't hear a lot of apartment buildings getting totaled by hurricanes (windows etc would still need protection). Considering the fact lots of countries that are poorer than the States use concrete on homes, I'm thinking it can't be that prohibitively expensive.
 
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Re: Stay Safe!

Sat Sep 09, 2017 8:09 pm

After hurricane Andrew devastated Miami in 1992, there was an immediate need for enhanced building codes for rebuilding. Lacking the time for slow - moving state and federal studies, Dade County instituted the most stringent building codes in the U.S. When researchers finally completed their delve into why some neighborhoods were mostly flattened while adjacent neighborhoods were mostly unscathed by Andrew, they decided that the requirements of the Miami - Dade building code were mostly overkill. The two most important factors leading to home damage turned out to have been 1) home builders that violated existing codes for anchors to attach walls to the concrete slab and hurricane straps to attach roofs to walls and 2) use of staples instead of roofing nails to attach roof shingles (which was allowed under the old building code).

Because Dade County acted quickly, their building code has become the de facto standard for hurricane - resistant construction in the past two decades. You can buy windows and doors that meet these standards, and therefore don't need aluminum storm shutters over them.

It's not that concrete is much more expensive in the U.S. than in many countries. It's that lumber is so much cheaper here than in many parts of the world.
Last edited by JustAnEngineer on Sat Sep 09, 2017 8:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Stay Safe!

Sat Sep 09, 2017 8:15 pm

It is certainly possible to build a hurricane proof home. Several have been built and documentaries made on them, they are usually spherical, egg-shaped, or similar to a geodesic dome as to provide no surface for the wind to catch onto and no roof to pop off.

The primary problem is the wind. Almost all US houses are built to "breathe", basically to draw air in under the eaves and out through places (like turbine vents) in the attic, for cooling purposes and to prevent water-related issues from developing. This gives many avenues for wind to create a low pressure on the leeward side of the roof and a high pressure on the windward side, and worst of all high pressure inside the attic space itself. Homes can be constructed to withstand the wind, but the primary point of failure is almost always the roof, these pressures can be intense enough to lift a roof off several inches off the house. Once that happens the wind will catch and yank it the rest of the way off the building as you see in most videos, then home will probably be destroyed as the walls promptly lose most of their support.

I'm only speaking broadly, keep in mind other things like the wind shattering windows will provide additional places for the wind to enter a home and build a positive pressure that acts against the roof. If you design a roof system to avoid this problem entirely and build a home out of brick then it would be very hurricane resistant already. But that is just not how they build houses in the US, it costs more to build and (especially) to cool and dehumidify homes without that breathing attic space.
 
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Re: Stay Safe!

Sun Sep 10, 2017 8:36 am

JustAnEngineer wrote:
1) home builders that violated existing codes.

This is still probably the biggest reason. Shoddily done construction and either not applying for permits or covering up shoddy work to pass and inspection.
 
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Re: Stay Safe!

Mon Sep 11, 2017 9:03 am

So power went out about 20:05 last night. Not surprising. We pre-chilled the house to 72 so it has been pretty comfortable. Went out exploring his morning. Lots of downed limbs. Three trees blocking roads in the neighborhood. I was able to clean one of them with my handsaw. A small limb fell on my car, some small dents, but nothing no major. All in the house are safe and sound but it looks like power is out for most of central florida.
 
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Re: Stay Safe!

Mon Sep 11, 2017 10:09 am

Be safe. Storm coming to Atlanta...Nanoflower is on the extreme Eastern edge here, I'm on the Eastern edge and Ryu Connor is more towards the middle I think. Used yesterday to fortify windows and remove potential flying objects. I'm riding it out in the house while wife and son are 20 miles away in hotel and dog is in nearby doggie hotel.
 
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Re: Stay Safe!

Mon Sep 11, 2017 10:17 am

We got 296mm of rain per my homemade raingauge. (A plastic Spaghetti noodle holder). Right around 11.5". Pretty impressive. Fortunately we are able to handle that amount of rainfall without too much trulouble in sandy Florida. Our lake is very very full though.
 
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Re: Stay Safe!

Mon Sep 11, 2017 10:43 am

Usacomp2k3 wrote:
We got 296mm of rain per my homemade raingauge. (A plastic Spaghetti noodle holder). Right around 11.5". Pretty impressive. Fortunately we are able to handle that amount of rainfall without too much trulouble in sandy Florida. Our lake is very very full though.


Which lake? My mother-in-law is in Winter Park and one brother-in-law is in Maitland.
 
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Re: Stay Safe!

Mon Sep 11, 2017 10:55 am

Central Florida is dotted with hundreds and hundreds of lakes. Every time a sinkhole opens up, it creates another lake. (Except for the rare times that it remains a dry millhopper.)
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Re: Stay Safe!

Mon Sep 11, 2017 11:45 am

JustAnEngineer wrote:
Central Florida is dotted with hundreds and hundreds of lakes. Every time a sinkhole opens up, it creates another lake. (Except for the rare times that it remains a dry millhopper.)


I enjoyed swimming in many of the natural springs and sinkholes around the Gainseville and Ocala National Forest areas. Irma should replinish the central FL aquifer and bring up the water table some. A limestone ridge runs down the central spine of FL to just NW of Lake Okeechobee. There are sinkholes all along the central limestone area and the springs drain out the east side mostly to the St Johns River and on the west side to the Gulf. There were many lakes in north FL that went dry over the last 20 years or so. It would be nice to see them up again.
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Re: Stay Safe!

Mon Sep 11, 2017 1:11 pm

Neutronbeam wrote:
Usacomp2k3 wrote:
We got 296mm of rain per my homemade raingauge. (A plastic Spaghetti noodle holder). Right around 11.5". Pretty impressive. Fortunately we are able to handle that amount of rainfall without too much trulouble in sandy Florida. Our lake is very very full though.


Which lake? My mother-in-law is in Winter Park and one brother-in-law is in Maitland.

Lake Killarney. We're in Winter Park as well. No real damage In Our neighborhood. 3 trees fell over the road and quite a few branches blocking sidewalks. I was able to clear all but the big limbs with a pair of loppers and a hand saw. Good use of excess energy.

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