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Kougar
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Stay Safe!

Fri Aug 25, 2017 3:45 pm

For anyone else in Texas, especially on or near the coast stay safe!

Harvey is now a cat 3 storm and the worst hit areas are expected to exceed 35" of rainfall. It's already been saturating the coast for most of the day, the storm is traveling at a mere 10mph, so anyone in the path is going to get a very long sustained deluge...
 
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Re: Stay Safe!

Fri Aug 25, 2017 3:56 pm

Don't mess around with hurricanes and remember that the water, not the wind, is your primary enemy.
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Re: Stay Safe!

Fri Aug 25, 2017 4:17 pm

I think I read that 35" prediction was the highest ever? Yeah, that's going to be your main concern. Even if your area can handle "heavy" rain, getting THAT MUCH will probably upend your local drainage system.

So seriously...stay safe y'all.
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Re: Stay Safe!

Fri Aug 25, 2017 4:41 pm

I have no idea what the rainfall record would be, I don't even know how they will be able to measure that much rainfall accurately. :lol: The local radar map is crazy to watch because the rain bands have been <200 miles away for all afternoon, can't even tell they are getting closer it's moving that slowly. 10mph is crazy slow for a cat 3 storm

US models are still expecting Harvey to stall out completely over central Texas, only the European models are predicting it might start gradually rolling north east. Tornado warnings are now up for many counties, I'm seeing forecasters claiming to now expect tornadoes from Harvey.
 
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Re: Stay Safe!

Fri Aug 25, 2017 6:23 pm

Holy crap, upgraded to a Cat 4. Sucks to be Texas right now.
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Re: Stay Safe!

Fri Aug 25, 2017 6:24 pm

Flooding is the biggest concern by far.
You've got the storm surge causing coastal flooding, plus the huge wind-driven waves on top of it. Then, that salt water that's pushed into estuaries and bays blocks the outflow of fresh water that's trying to run off into the sea. That will make the fresh water flooding even worse than it would be if you just had a two or three foot rain event without a major hurricane.
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Re: Stay Safe!

Fri Aug 25, 2017 6:29 pm

Yeah... "two or three foot rain event" is a catastrophe all by itself. The other effects of the storm will greatly amplify the badness.
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Re: Stay Safe!

Fri Aug 25, 2017 6:34 pm

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Kougar
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Re: Stay Safe!

Fri Aug 25, 2017 6:35 pm

Well the positive news is that Harvey is only around ~280 miles wide. Sandy was 482, and hurricanes can get even larger. Hurricane Igor was over 900 miles wide. It just hasn't had time to reform to even half the size a category 4 tends to be, which means decreased rain bands around the storm. A normal size storm would've been adding a full day to the rainfall totals and probably then some.
 
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Re: Stay Safe!

Fri Aug 25, 2017 6:52 pm

Kougar wrote:
I have no idea what the rainfall record would be.

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane
Bob Henson, Weather Underground wrote:
Harvey’s slow movement and huge amounts of moisture will lead to enormous rainfall and will likely produce vast areas of flooding. The heaviest 24-hour rainfall in U.S. records is the 42” observed in Alvin, TX (just south of Houston) during slow-moving Tropical Depression Claudette on July 25-26, 1979. The latest 5-day precipitation outlook from the NOAA/NWS Weather Prediction Center projects that an area larger than the state of Massachusetts, including Houston and Galveston, can expect more than 20” of rain between now and Wednesday.
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Re: Stay Safe!

Fri Aug 25, 2017 8:24 pm

Still not a drop has fallen here. The rain bands are tight and have been <200 miles away all day. If it was a full size storm we'd of had a full day of rain already.

Bob Henson, Weather Underground wrote:
Harvey’s slow movement and huge amounts of moisture will lead to enormous rainfall and will likely produce vast areas of flooding. The heaviest 24-hour rainfall in U.S. records is the 42” observed in Alvin, TX (just south of Houston) during slow-moving Tropical Depression Claudette on July 25-26, 1979.


Worth noting that "Observer reported that the 10-inch gauge was overflowing at his 1 AM reading, and so the 42 inches may be underreported by at least 3 inches" It looks like the system NOAA uses now has three separate weight gauges set on a five minute timer, so I guess they won't have that issue this time around.
 
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Re: Stay Safe!

Sun Aug 27, 2017 1:19 am

..I just looked at the radar for the Houston area. Seems like the Gulf Freeway is becoming more "gulf" than freeway. :o
 
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Re: Stay Safe!

Sun Aug 27, 2017 12:24 pm

For all the flooding elsewhere we got barely an inch of rainfall in San Antonio. Harvey turned around and moved away before any rain bands could make it, and is now headed up and out of state.

CScottG wrote:
..I just looked at the radar for the Houston area. Seems like the Gulf Freeway is becoming more "gulf" than freeway. :o


Was perusing the traffic cameras, I-10 is completely abandoned (and completely flooded out in places). And yeah, Gulf freeway isn't any better. Half the time the access roads are completely gone under water... it's freaky to see all the interstates empty in Houston. People are moving back out onto the local roads though.
 
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Re: Stay Safe!

Sun Aug 27, 2017 8:55 pm

Some of the pictures out of Houston are crazy. And they're still supposed to get a lot more rain...
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Re: Stay Safe!

Sun Aug 27, 2017 10:12 pm

Yeah, it's just getting worse. Sort of a "hanger-on" storm for its east-side that keeps dropping water.

..should've built my home with an aerated concrete foundation :oops: (..though it is elevated enough relative to most of the surrounding area).

I don't think I'll be leaving my subdivision for at least 2 days.. :cry: Fortunately this time around the wind hasn't been strong enough to drop trees on just about every power-line in my area - because not having electricity for a week-plus *really* sucks. :P
 
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Re: Stay Safe!

Sun Aug 27, 2017 10:35 pm

I recently suffered through two local storms in the last 30 days that brought water into my basement. That was just with a bit over 6 inchs of rain (~165 mm for you metric folks) in a few hours for record flooding in the area. I can't fathom what five times amount would do. The only comfort I can see is that hurricanes are more predictable so you can prepare in some manner ahead of time unlike spontaneous storms in the midwest tends to have. The other factor is that you can also prepare for the aftermath. My fear is that we maybe seeing Katrina 2.0 unfolding.
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just brew it!
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Re: Stay Safe!

Sun Aug 27, 2017 10:38 pm

From what I've seen so far on the news, it doesn't look like it will hit Katrina levels of badness/suffering. But things could still get a lot worse depending on what the storm does in the next few days, so we could still get there.

I consider myself fortunate in that I have never had more than minor seepage in my basement. There have been a couple of storms (in the 15+ years we've lived here) where the water has gotten nearly up to the patio though; if it ever makes it to the basement window wells (another foot or so), things will get bad. The sump pump ain't gonna do a lot of good if the water is pouring in through the windows.
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Re: Stay Safe!

Mon Aug 28, 2017 7:04 am

I was living in SE Texas when tropical storm Allison in 2001 caused around 3' of rain non-stop for a week and it was a mess. Harvey is exceeding that since it is stalling out over that region and not dissipating. They call it a "rain train" down there when a weather event like that keeps drawing up moisture from the gulf and dumping it inland.
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Re: Stay Safe!

Mon Aug 28, 2017 9:28 am

I was also reading something yesterday about how it has dumped enough water on the area and is moving slowly enough that it has created a feedback loop. The storm is now effectively sitting over a shallow inland sea, and recycling its own moisture.

"Hey, just in case it didn't suck enough the first time around, here's some of that same water again!"
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Re: Stay Safe!

Mon Aug 28, 2017 1:52 pm

just brew it! wrote:
From what I've seen so far on the news, it doesn't look like it will hit Katrina levels of badness/suffering. But things could still get a lot worse depending on what the storm does in the next few days, so we could still get there.

We're talking about a top-five market in the US. In absolute numbers, it will be just as bad and probably far worse than Katrina, but it may not be as concentrated.
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Re: Stay Safe!

Mon Aug 28, 2017 1:57 pm

derFunkenstein wrote:
just brew it! wrote:
From what I've seen so far on the news, it doesn't look like it will hit Katrina levels of badness/suffering. But things could still get a lot worse depending on what the storm does in the next few days, so we could still get there.

We're talking about a top-five market in the US. In absolute numbers, it will be just as bad and probably far worse than Katrina, but it may not be as concentrated.


On an economic badness scale it's quite bad. However, so far the preparation and response looks to have been done much better and that hopefully will result in a much smaller loss of life.
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Re: Stay Safe!

Mon Aug 28, 2017 2:07 pm

Here's hoping, for sure.
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Re: Stay Safe!

Mon Aug 28, 2017 2:24 pm

Access to roads are severely limited. Main interstate I-10 is underwater in many areas and other roads are closed all over the area.
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My in-laws are in the south Houston and Beaumont area and while they are OK at the moment we're worried more rain is going to box them in with no way out. :(
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Re: Stay Safe!

Mon Aug 28, 2017 3:22 pm

Incredible...I just connected through this airport a month ago.

I'm betting on a spike in gas prices for at least 6-8 weeks and a nationwide shortage/spike in building materials for the next year.
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Re: Stay Safe!

Mon Aug 28, 2017 4:07 pm

My mother isn't seeing anything remotely near Katrina levels, but they live in northwest Houston suburbia. No serious flooding there as of yet. Parts of the Interstates are opening back up, parts of I-10 and 45 are in use again. There's like a kilometer stretch of IH-64 that is completely buried under water though.

There's a circulating rain system still going over the Houston area... and only the Houston area.

ludi wrote:
I'm betting on a spike in gas prices for at least 6-8 weeks and a nationwide shortage/spike in building materials for the next year.


Prices spiked last week by 10-15 cents. I'm seeing some speculative pricing above that, depends how long all the gulf production remains shutdown as well as the Houston refineries. Doubt it'd be a national shortage, Gulf crude should already be resuming and can just ship to east coast refineries if it has to.
 
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Re: Stay Safe!

Mon Aug 28, 2017 4:50 pm

Kougar wrote:
Doubt it'd be a national shortage, Gulf crude should already be resuming and can just ship to east coast refineries if it has to.

Nationwide shortage in building materials, not fuel. Drywall and softwood lumber in particular.
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Re: Stay Safe!

Mon Aug 28, 2017 5:27 pm

ludi wrote:
Nationwide shortage in building materials, not fuel. Drywall and softwood lumber in particular.


I'm not sure I follow the reasoning here, can you elaborate?
 
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Re: Stay Safe!

Mon Aug 28, 2017 5:30 pm

I assume they mean softwoods like spruce and pine in contrast to hardwoods like hard maple and mahogany. Construction grade lumber is almost always made from softwoods instead of hardwood. Redwood is the only example I can think of offhand where a hardwood is used as construction grade lumber, but that's usually for a deck or something highly visible that isn't going to get covered over in drywall anyway.

Once it gets soaked like everything in the area is already, then there's usually not much you can do except tear it all out and start over.
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Re: Stay Safe!

Mon Aug 28, 2017 6:29 pm

layerup wrote:
ludi wrote:
Nationwide shortage in building materials, not fuel. Drywall and softwood lumber in particular.

I'm not sure I follow the reasoning here, can you elaborate?

What Redocbew said, and also, when walls and subfloors have been sitting in deep water for a couple days or more there's no amount of drying out that will save them. Thinner materials like 2x4 pine tend to warp and split, plywood floor materials warp and delaminate, and the mold and rot starts in joints and seams. The best you can hope for is to salvage the structural portions of the building, worst case you push the whole thing over and start fresh. The materials required to rebuild an area flooded on this scale are going to suck down the North American supply chains for some time.
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Re: Stay Safe!

Mon Aug 28, 2017 6:47 pm

ludi wrote:
Kougar wrote:
Doubt it'd be a national shortage, Gulf crude should already be resuming and can just ship to east coast refineries if it has to.

Nationwide shortage in building materials, not fuel. Drywall and softwood lumber in particular.


I wouldn't be surprised if I got pulled off of moving John Deere equipment to shingles and drywall in the following months.
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