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Usacomp2k3
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2018 Hurricane Season

Tue Sep 11, 2018 7:22 am

To any gerbils in NC or SC; I hope you are bunkered down. This one looks to be a doozy. We lived in North Carolina on the SC border when Hugo came right overhead and it was pretty devastating. My dad was on the volunteer fire department and it was weeks of just getting roads cleared.

Stay safe!

PS, thanks for taking one for the team and letting the storm avoid Florida.
 
Captain Ned
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Tue Sep 11, 2018 8:04 am

Good friends own a beach house in Topsail Beach, NC. The latest NHC map has Florence hitting them head on. Be lucky to have a beach house after this.
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weaktoss
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Tue Sep 11, 2018 8:09 am

I'm in Durham, NC. We're a few hours from the coast, but the models still have us getting 10 inches of rain dumped on our heads.

I grew up near New Orleans, so I'm no stranger to the stress of hurricane threats. But it's been a few years since I've had to seriously worry about it, and boy is it not fun.
 
RickyTick
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Tue Sep 11, 2018 9:43 am

I think our biggest fear is the amount of rain being predicted. I've heard forecasts predict anywhere from 30 to 40 inches of rain. Schools in the Carolinas have already made changes to their events schedules. My local Wal-Mart, and other stores, are already out of bottled water and other "storm" items. This has the potential to get really ugly.
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kvndoom
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Tue Sep 11, 2018 10:25 am

Everybody be safe. I'm in SE Virginia (not coastal though) and we're planning to ride it out. I'm more worried about trees and debris than anything else, but we'll see how it goes.
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nerdrage
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Tue Sep 11, 2018 10:30 am

This will be my first "big one" since moving to NC eleven years ago. I lived in southern New England prior to that, and my main experience was with the (much weaker) Hurricane Gloria back in '85 leaving my neighborhood without power for well over a week, took out MANY trees in our yard, and destroyed some smaller structures in the neighborhood. We're planning on things being much worse here in NC. Since we're about 130 hundred miles inland from the predicted landfall, we're hoping the winds get reduced to below hurricane force when the eye passes near us. But I'm really worried about the excessive amounts of rainfall they're predicting... some of the higher end predictions are measured in feet as the storm stalls out over land :(

Luckily our house is at a higher elevation, and we made improvements to the drainage around the house about a year ago that will keep the water away from the foundation. We've got enough non-perishable food to last us for at least a week, probably two. We've also got a NG-powered stove, grill, and water heater, so we can (hopefully) at least cook food, boil water, and take showers. We're also storing water in containers and packing our freezer with as much ice as we can make ahead of time.
 
mattshwink
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Tue Sep 11, 2018 10:43 am

I have a co-worker who lives in Hampton Roads, VA. He is in Zone D, but his parents are in Zone A (currently under mandatory evac and at his house). I have another friend who just started teaching at ECU in NC, classes are suspended starting Wednesday through the end of the week. I'm up in NoVA, just watching for flooding. Alexandria already flooded a little with all the rain we have been getting (rain every day this week and happened all weekend).
 
DancinJack
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Tue Sep 11, 2018 12:36 pm

Hooooo boy Wilmington looks to be in a bad spot. Hope anyone that lives there on this site is evacuating. Raleigh also looks to be in a pickle. Should avoid the winds mostly, but the rain will be killer.
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:44 pm

The storm surge is going to be massive if it coincides with the high tide. Some years ago I was on temporary duty at the Langley military base near Norfolk and the bay side was prone to a lot of flooding just with a mild offshore storm. Be safe and hope everyone around there makes it through OK.
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Waco
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Tue Sep 11, 2018 2:05 pm

My family is stupidly refusing to evacuate. Charleston county, they live a few miles inland at about 7 feet above sea level, essentially surrounded on 3 sides by water. They're utterly screwed if it runs towards the southern end of the models in the slightest.
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JustAnEngineer
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Tue Sep 11, 2018 2:53 pm

Typical prediction errors in NHC forecast locations are 100 miles at three days, 140 miles at four days and 180 miles at five days.
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Tue Sep 11, 2018 3:26 pm

What really strikes me about this storm is the path. Normally you see hurricanes sweep the side of the East Coast from South to North. Florence's predictions have her sticking straight into the Carolinas. Storm surges, high winds, and heavy rains are bad, but if she parks herself after making landfall, the sustained impact could be...really bad. She could be dropping rain on the area long after weakening to storm/depression status.

Glad to see several Gerbils taking cover. If anyone's friends and/or family are also in the danger zone, I hope they come to their senses and evacuate to higher ground.
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ronch
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Tue Sep 11, 2018 8:05 pm

I don't live in the US but a super typhoon is headed this way, packing sustained winds of 259km/h (that's 160mph) and gusts up to 315km/h as it makes landfall this Friday.

https://www.9news.com.au/2018/09/10/16/ ... es-weather
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drfish
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Wed Sep 12, 2018 6:31 am

I hope this goes without saying, but GTFO if you're near this thing. If you know someone there, urge them to leave.
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Captain Ned
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Wed Sep 12, 2018 6:42 am

The new track cited in that Ars article bodes VERY poorly for the NC coast. If the storm heads due west as newly predicted and the eye stays offshore, anything to the north of the eye will have 24+ hours of hurricane-force winds driving storm surge directly on-shore. The barrier islands between Wilmington and Hatteras will likely be completely underwater for that period.
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DancinJack
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:28 am

https://blogs.nasa.gov/hurricanes/tag/t ... cyclone-6/

I mean come on. Anyone staying in the path of this thing either is too stubborn for their own good, or doesn't know what is going on. Get the f out.
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Glorious
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:33 am

"WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS."

"PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK."

~2005

It's too bad the NWS doesn't do the ALL CAPS teleprinter-style thing anymore.
 
DancinJack
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:36 am

There are some rather scary things on the multiple NWS tweeter accounts.

https://twitter.com/NWS
https://twitter.com/NWSWilmingtonNC
https://twitter.com/NWSEastern
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:41 am

I just liked it back when they were still "screaming" the weather bulletins at us. :lol:

But yeah, exactly like you said, everyone should heed the warnings and get out as directed.
 
just brew it!
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:43 am

83 foot waves! :o
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UberGerbil
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Wed Sep 12, 2018 2:59 pm

Waco wrote:
My family is stupidly refusing to evacuate. Charleston county, they live a few miles inland at about 7 feet above sea level, essentially surrounded on 3 sides by water. They're utterly screwed if it runs towards the southern end of the models in the slightest.
Are they still sticking to that decision? What could possibly be their rationale? Charleston County has apparently determined its own shelters might not stand up to the storm; the only safe option is evacuation inland, and now it might be too late for that.

This thing is going to be life-ending for some -- hopefully not the first responders who end up trying to rescue some of the people to insisted on "hunkering down." I hope your family comes through ok despite everything.
just brew it! wrote:
83 foot waves! :o
That's just... wow. That's enough to pitchpole a freighter.
 
Waco
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Wed Sep 12, 2018 3:20 pm

UberGerbil wrote:
Waco wrote:
My family is stupidly refusing to evacuate. Charleston county, they live a few miles inland at about 7 feet above sea level, essentially surrounded on 3 sides by water. They're utterly screwed if it runs towards the southern end of the models in the slightest.
Are they still sticking to that decision? What could possibly be their rationale? Charleston County has apparently determined its own shelters might not stand up to the storm; the only safe option is evacuation inland, and now it might be too late for that.

The wife and I convinced my brother to get out with my niece. My sister and mother are refusing to answer the phone and won't give me any reasons why they won't leave via text.

If I could reach out and knock both out I would, especially if it meant I could toss them in a damn car and get off the coast.
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mvp324
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Wed Sep 12, 2018 3:35 pm

I evac from CHS to CLT. I live on Shem Creek, and when I left this morning, the water on the creek looked like a King Tide (a higher than usual high tide), I think this was around 10ish. https://www.weatherforyou.com/reports/i ... t&state=sc The tide may have been in line with normal height, but I wasn't feeling it would be any less for low tide.
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Redocbew
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Wed Sep 12, 2018 4:58 pm

Waco wrote:
UberGerbil wrote:
Waco wrote:
My family is stupidly refusing to evacuate. Charleston county, they live a few miles inland at about 7 feet above sea level, essentially surrounded on 3 sides by water. They're utterly screwed if it runs towards the southern end of the models in the slightest.
Are they still sticking to that decision? What could possibly be their rationale? Charleston County has apparently determined its own shelters might not stand up to the storm; the only safe option is evacuation inland, and now it might be too late for that.

The wife and I convinced my brother to get out with my niece. My sister and mother are refusing to answer the phone and won't give me any reasons why they won't leave via text.

If I could reach out and knock both out I would, especially if it meant I could toss them in a damn car and get off the coast.


Best of luck to you dude. If the fires that came through here recently were a bit closer to home I might have had a similar situation.
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anotherengineer
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Wed Sep 12, 2018 5:15 pm

just brew it! wrote:
83 foot waves! :o



surfers paradise!!!!!!!!
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Captain Ned
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Wed Sep 12, 2018 5:21 pm

I just hope that the barrier island my friend's beach house sits on is still there after this. Storm surge predictions alone tell me the house won't be there next week. And yes, he's far far away from this.
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Usacomp2k3
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:57 am

Michael sure turned into a monster almost overnight. The track is within 60 miles of my in-laws house, so they are in the process of bugging out. This is the strongest storm to hit the panhandle in recorded history. No bueno Jose.
 
sconesy
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Wed Oct 10, 2018 11:56 am

Usacomp2k3 wrote:
Michael sure turned into a monster almost overnight. The track is within 60 miles of my in-laws house, so they are in the process of bugging out. This is the strongest storm to hit the panhandle in recorded history. No bueno Jose.


Terrible for the Gulf AND it looks like it might carry heavy rainfall into the areas of NC and SC that already got drenched last month. It's been awhile but I suspect some areas are still waterlogged. At least it isn't supposed to be one of those slow "lurker" storms like the one that hit Houston last year.
 
ludi
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:48 pm

Official landfall by Arch-Hurricane Michael at Mexico Beach with sustained windspeeds a hairs' breadth below Category 5.

If you're reading this, then you're not in the Florida panhandle, because power losses are projected to exceed 1M+ customers within the next couple days.
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Usacomp2k3
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Thu Oct 11, 2018 7:09 am

Still no word from the homeland on how their local area survived. 100 acres of forest means lots of trees went down I'm sure. We're just hoping none were on the various barns/sheds. I-10 is shut down for 81 miles surrounding the area. We'll probably go up tomorrow to see what can be done.

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