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Buy or Lease a new EV

Buy
14 (40%)
Lease
11 (31%)
Neither and spend all available funds buying delicious cheese. (But I'd still need a vehicle to haul the cheese)
10 (29%)
 
Total votes: 35
 
Usacomp2k3
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Thu Jun 20, 2019 5:48 pm

Any chance we can get back to discussing EV’s? The Waymo/Uber self-driving are ICE’s? How about the other auto manufacturers?
 
dragontamer5788
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Thu Jun 20, 2019 5:54 pm

wierdo wrote:
dragontamer5788 wrote:
I've had many discussions with Tesla enthusiasts. I think most of them can agree with me that profits are a miss right now, but they do understand the importance of some stats: profit margins, revenue hits, etc. etc. You're not like them, you've "drunk the kool aid" as some would say.

I'm not talking about a quarter's profit here, I'm talking about the company's long-term prospects. I'm saying a single quarter of profits is not an indication of problems, I'm saying investing in growth is not a bad strategy. There are risks, but the execution is overall not bad, even if it spooks short term investors, it's a startup, no surprises there, and the auto market is not an easy thing for a new company to penetrate.


Image

I'm not looking at one quarter of losses here. I'm talking about a 10-year trend of exponentially increasing losses.

If Tesla's vehicles were revenue negative then that would be a problem, but they're the number one highest grossing vehicle product right now.


* Tesla's gross margin in 2018 was 23% (Ctrl-F for "Cost of Revenues and Gross Margin"): https://ir.tesla.com/node/19496/html
* Ford's gross margin in 2018 was 17% (160 Billion revenue / 136 Billion cost of sales):
* Ford's "Gross margin" (Ford doesn't calculate this one) was 8%. 148 Billion Revenue / 136 Billion cost of sales. (My previous number of 160 Billion included "Ford Credit", their banking / financial arm. 148 Billion is from the car itself).

I think you might be over-estimating Tesla's advantage on gross margin. Remember, Ford doesn't have to hire sales-reps, they sell their cars wholesale (at a discount) to dealerships, and its the dealerships who have to sell their cars. Tesla actually has sales reps, which completely wipe out that difference.

So not it's not that this quarter was a profit or loss that's the issue, it's the insinuation that the business should change gears, I think it's too early for them to exit growth phase, they should wait until they have a factory in Europe at least.


Capital Expenditures do not affect profits. "Growing" a company, by buying factory equipment or ramping up production lines, comes out as $0 on the net profit / net loss line. I've already taken into account Tesla's "growth strategy". I've explicitly have chosen the measurement which ignores the cost of factories and production lines.
Last edited by dragontamer5788 on Thu Jun 20, 2019 6:04 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
just brew it!
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Thu Jun 20, 2019 5:57 pm

wierdo wrote:
dragontamer5788 wrote:
I've had many discussions with Tesla enthusiasts. I think most of them can agree with me that profits are a miss right now, but they do understand the importance of some stats: profit margins, revenue hits, etc. etc. You're not like them, you've "drunk the kool aid" as some would say.

I'm not talking about a quarter's profit here, I'm talking about the company's long-term prospects. I'm saying a single quarter of profits is not an indication of problems as some subset of Wallstreet hacks spin on media.

With their current debt load and everything else that's going on, their long-term prospects look pretty dim to me.
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Glorious
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Fri Jun 21, 2019 9:07 am

wierdo wrote:
From my end I think you are the one that's dishonest, so by extension I don't believe your age nor occupation claims. This goes both ways when you start insulting others.


Right, so I started a fifteen-year plus long deception in the hope that eventually someone would show up to argue about Tesla, a company that didn't even exist yet, a plot I hatched around the time I first went to college with the assistance of time-travel.

Or, maybe, just maybe, there is something seriously defective and bizarre when it comes to your reasoning and ability to estimate the reliability of sources?

Nah, I've been a crude-oil drinking lizard this whole time, yup.
 
wierdo
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Mon Jun 24, 2019 6:51 pm

just brew it! wrote:
wierdo wrote:
dragontamer5788 wrote:
I've had many discussions with Tesla enthusiasts. I think most of them can agree with me that profits are a miss right now, but they do understand the importance of some stats: profit margins, revenue hits, etc. etc. You're not like them, you've "drunk the kool aid" as some would say.

I'm not talking about a quarter's profit here, I'm talking about the company's long-term prospects. I'm saying a single quarter of profits is not an indication of problems as some subset of Wallstreet hacks spin on media.

With their current debt load and everything else that's going on, their long-term prospects look pretty dim to me.


We'll see, it's gonna be a big next two years for the company.

Their China operations have already gone from zero to three billion dollars in revenue within a few years, and this is before their Shanghai factory starts producing early next year, with about half the Capex of the first generation production lines in Fremont. The revenue for 2021 from China is expected to be around $10 billion.

The future of major auto manufacturers, not just Tesla, rests in that massive market right now.

So pretty promising stuff.

Latest updates:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KxzxrcuyJ0s
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Usacomp2k3
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Mon Jun 24, 2019 10:07 pm

https://twitter.com/kirkburgess/status/ ... 23360?s=21

There’s a great little animation showing Tesla’s rocketing sales numbers for EV’s.
 
dragontamer5788
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Mon Jun 24, 2019 10:35 pm

wierdo wrote:
just brew it! wrote:
wierdo wrote:
I'm not talking about a quarter's profit here, I'm talking about the company's long-term prospects. I'm saying a single quarter of profits is not an indication of problems as some subset of Wallstreet hacks spin on media.

With their current debt load and everything else that's going on, their long-term prospects look pretty dim to me.


We'll see, it's gonna be a big next two years for the company.

Their China operations have already gone from zero to three billion dollars in revenue within a few years, and this is before their Shanghai factory starts producing early next year, with about half the Capex of the first generation production lines in Fremont. The revenue for 2021 from China is expected to be around $10 billion.

The future of major auto manufacturers, not just Tesla, rests in that massive market right now.

So pretty promising stuff.

Latest updates:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KxzxrcuyJ0s


https://cleantechnica.com/2019/06/20/ch ... -may-2019/

Image

Model 3 doesn't seem like its doing too good yet. 2000 sales x 12-months x $50000 Average-selling price == $1.2 Billion USD revenue for 2019. I really don't know where you're getting any of your numbers from. To reach $3 Billion revenue in China, Tesla needs to sell 5000 cars per month, they're not even halfway there.

To have 10 Billion revenue / year in China, Tesla needs to sell 16,700 cars/month in China alone. It seems like a rather unbelievable number to me.

Usacomp2k3 wrote:
https://twitter.com/kirkburgess/status/1131837596231823360?s=21

There’s a great little animation showing Tesla’s rocketing sales numbers for EV’s.


BTW: That was posted a few pages ago.

Frankly, I hate that gif. There's no point making an animated graph. Just make a log-scale graph if you want to show exponential growth instead of wasting my time. Just commenting on the style, not necessarily the numbers.
 
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Tue Jun 25, 2019 7:27 am

LoneWolf15 wrote:
Captain Ned wrote:
Hydrocarbons all the way for me. I don't do stop and go for work driving, so hybrid parts are just along for the ride and are dead weight. Too bad VW killed diesel, as it would make perfect sense for my driving pattern.


Does Chevy still make the Cruze Diesel? The urea keeps the NOx emissions down, and mileage is supposed to be excellent. It's probably no less reliable than VW either, as VW has more than its fair share of electrical issues.

As for me, a Tesla 3 is too expensive, and many other hybrids either are or perform poorly. I'm happy with my 2016 Honda Civic. ULEV-II, good fuel economy, and even the non-turboed 2.0 i-VTEC is reasonably fun to drive.


I have a 2014 Cruze diesel. Last trip from my house to TRBBQ I got 52mpg over 50miles according to the on board computer on the way down. They back up is more up hill and I got 48mpg over 50miles. I beleive my total tank mileage worked out to 44mpg for 16gallons. :D

The car is a little heavy but has the sport suspension, bigger breaks, and produces 150hp and 240ft/lbs. It is really fun to drive in the city and it eats highway miles for breakfast lunch and dinner.
It LOVES to go 77-78mph on the highway.

I do not believe you can get a 2019 model but you can get 2014-2015 and 2017-2018 model with the diesel.
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Tue Jun 25, 2019 7:47 am

just brew it! wrote:
dragontamer5788 wrote:
Anyway, maybe it would help if I shared more of my personal cult story too? When I was younger, I would go door-to-door, selling the best $700 knives in the market (arguably, the only $700 knives on the market). It was ultimately a multi-level marketing scheme. I worked very hard to sell as many knives as I could, believing that I was improving myself and my sales abilities. In reality, I was destroying my social network one-person at a time, but it took me a few months before I discovered that. Selling knives by leveraging your social network is a bad idea, you gotta keep personal-and-business life separate.

At the risk of going WAAAYY off topic (but heck, we're already pretty far from home relative to the OP here, so whatever...), I could maybe see a full set of high-end chef's knives costing that much. Does the average non-professional cook (or even the typical professional chef) need that? Nope. But it's not completely crazy.


No worries, feel free to fly off the rails even more. I made my decision back on page 2, I'm buying.

These are purely my speculative guesses and I've just pulled these numbers from my butt, but from 0 -> 6 years (or so, give or take), in GENERAL, an ICE will be problem free. Years 6-10 you'll start running into small and relatively minor fixes. After year 10 is when the maintenance costs will really start taking off. An EV, on the other hand (EXCLUDING shocks/suspension/coli springs/brakes as an ICE has that as well), will have pratically no maintenance after 10 years.

If I keep a car for 13 years (by which time the rust will eat the car away), then I'll be saving big dollars not having to pay maintenance and gas. So for me, buying an EV is a long term play. I also have the option of financing over 8 years bringing the monthly cash outflow down. Yes, I'll pay more interest in the long term, but monthly cas flow is important.
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dragontamer5788
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Tue Jun 25, 2019 8:09 am

Sargent Duck wrote:
No worries, feel free to fly off the rails even more. I made my decision back on page 2, I'm buying.


Good to hear! I think there's some risk in various battery technologies, but otherwise, I do think that EVs are a better long-term buy as well. The different manufacturers do use differing battery chemistries and pack formations, which may lead to issues. On the other hand, Lithium Ion batteries in general are somewhat well known at this point (thanks to Laptops / Cell Phones, etc. etc). The main issue I foresee is maybe "cold range".

The main long-term cost driver is gas / electric prices. Electricity is cheaper by a good margin.
 
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Tue Jun 25, 2019 8:16 am

I was looking at your post on page 2, do you know what model you are getting.

I'm just a stone throw south in MN. I can tell you that if I could get the Canadian version of the Kona I would consider it. They have some significant advantage over the US versions, such as a beefed up thermal management solution on the battery and a heat pump for heating the car to supplement the inefficient (but wider operating rage) heating coil. As cold as it gets here I don't know why they don't offer that version.

The Bolt is nice, too. I sat in one and WOW, is it roomy. Supposedly it's faster to 30 than a Tesla, but they use a different motor that's more efficient but has rippling at higher out puts so it doesn't punch as hard.

Realistically I'd get the Model 3 AWD version. 0-60 in 4.4 seconds? Yes please! It's also longer range. And the front is a permanent magnet motor, so you get that punch. I LOVE my S60 R, but losing the performance I have with that by going to a Kona would just depress me every time I got in it. The one thing I don't like about them is the floor pan is really high. Very sporty seating position. It's not for everyone. My wife would go Kona or Bolt. That said, my car is over 15 years old vs. her 5, so I win. The main problem is driving as it is and waiting for the engine to explode (not as it is intended to, that is) is far cheaper than buying a new car. The TCO is lower. S60 R's just don't die easily, even with their strung out engine. *sigh* I wait. Hopefully they'll be cheaper by then.
 
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Tue Jun 25, 2019 11:57 am

dragontamer5788 wrote:
Model 3 doesn't seem like its doing too good yet. 2000 sales x 12-months x $50000 Average-selling price == $1.2 Billion USD revenue for 2019. I really don't know where you're getting any of your numbers from. To reach $3 Billion revenue in China, Tesla needs to sell 5000 cars per month, they're not even halfway there.

To have 10 Billion revenue / year in China, Tesla needs to sell 16,700 cars/month in China alone. It seems like a rather unbelievable number to me.

Probably because Tesla sells more than just the Model 3, they have other models - and products - in that market. I believe they only started selling the Model 3 in March - sold 5300 for that month, exhausting the inventory. Also sales are seasonal, it's not the same rate every month.

There are also other factors to consider such as:
- They're selling only their upper end models.
- They're shipping them from the US currently, in limited supplies by sea.
- The cars are currently subjected to various tariffs and do not qualify for local incentives.

That chart is also not surprising. From your link:
There were actually three new faces in the top 20, with the highest entry being the BMW 530Le, in #17, which became the highest standing full-size model and the 3rd foreign nameplate in the ranking, together with the #11 VW Passat PHEV and the #18 Tesla Model 3. This is the first time that 3 foreign nameplates have appeared in the Chinese top 20

Tesla may be dominating EVs here, but BYD, for example, is roughly double Tesla's size, for comparison. China's ahead of the game here, they're just working to get into export when they feel ready, right now their huge local market is enough to sustain these local giants while they polish their craft, but the long-term plan is no secret, and the government is doing some constant pruning of their garden in preparation. The only edge Tesla has is in the technology under the hood, but that can change.

So despite all these obstacles, they're selling everything that they can get there. The government is not pulling punches to make sure their Tesla factory effort succeeds locally, and the banks are even providing zero percent loan offers to buyers, to remove financial obstacles and support their investment in that factory.

You can see the sales activity reported on the ground from China here, it was pretty hectic at the stores and vehicle registration facilities:
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/04/02/te ... oing-24-7/

Which is why Tesla's pushing for the Shanghai factory so hard, before these unpredictable trade wars escalate further, so they can sell their base models with local production and government backing, at half the Capex.

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/05/30/te ... uilt-cars/

Initial output is expected to be 150,000/year initially, going up the following year until reaching a peak of 500,000/year. These will be closer to the base model and Tesla will likely still ship most of the upper tier models from the US.

Side note: I can't believe we're talking about the mundane bean counting rather than the cool technology on the table, it's like I'm talking Linux on a BBS for Vogue. What about the design technicalities, or cool features of the cars, something more about helmets and less about suits? Weird.

So if anyone's actually into the geeky stuff here, then something more interesting for you:

How the Tesla Model 3 became the World's Safest Car
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_cont ... kayYiwrjyQ
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dragontamer5788
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Tue Jun 25, 2019 12:30 pm

wierdo wrote:
dragontamer5788 wrote:
Model 3 doesn't seem like its doing too good yet. 2000 sales x 12-months x $50000 Average-selling price == $1.2 Billion USD revenue for 2019. I really don't know where you're getting any of your numbers from. To reach $3 Billion revenue in China, Tesla needs to sell 5000 cars per month, they're not even halfway there.

To have 10 Billion revenue / year in China, Tesla needs to sell 16,700 cars/month in China alone. It seems like a rather unbelievable number to me.

Probably because Tesla sells more than just the Model 3, they have other models - and products - in that market. I believe they only started selling the Model 3 in March - sold 5300 for that month, exhausting the inventory.


Wait, so they sold 5300 M3 in China in March, but only managed to sell 2000 in China in May? I'm going to need a citation for your 5300 March number. If Tesla sales are declining already, that's a horrible sign. I would hope, for Tesla's sake, that Tesla's May numbers should be better than Tesla's March numbers.

I mean, month-to-month numbers shouldn't necessarily be increasing exponentially or anything (at least, not until the Shanghai factory is complete). But we're talking about a 62% decline in deliveries if your 5300 in March number is accurate. If March exhausted the inventory, why couldn't April or May exhaust the inventory?
 
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Tue Jun 25, 2019 12:35 pm

wierdo wrote:
So if anyone's actually into the geeky stuff here, then something more interesting for you:


You know, when did "Nerdy/Geeky" turn into utterly superficial marketing that's based on complete misrepresentations?

First off, the "World's Safest Car" label as unilaterally applied by Tesla was actually firmly rebuked by the NHTSA:

https://www.nhtsa.gov/press-releases/na ... ut-new-car

NHTSA wrote:
there is no "safest" vehicle among those vehicles


Second off, even when the NHTSA does support certain statistics as promoted by Tesla(autopilot 40% safer), well, that's a huge scandal too:

https://www.latimes.com/business/autos/ ... story.html
https://arstechnica.com/cars/2019/02/in ... was-bogus/

----

Does "nerdy/geeky" -really- mean "don't bother me with details as I uncritically promote something I refuse to actually understand"? :o

I'm not "a suit" and your tesla folklore isn't cool or technical.

Or, generally speaking, accurate.
 
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Tue Jun 25, 2019 1:01 pm

dragontamer5788 wrote:
wierdo wrote:
Probably because Tesla sells more than just the Model 3, they have other models - and products - in that market. I believe they only started selling the Model 3 in March - sold 5300 for that month, exhausting the inventory.

Wait, so they sold 5300 M3 in China in March, but only managed to sell 2000 in China in May? I'm going to need a citation for your 5300 March number. If Tesla sales are declining already, that's a horrible sign. I would hope, for Tesla's sake, that Tesla's May numbers should be better than Tesla's March numbers.

I mean, month-to-month numbers shouldn't necessarily be increasing exponentially or anything (at least, not until the Shanghai factory is complete). But we're talking about a 62% decline in deliveries if your 5300 in March number is accurate. If March exhausted the inventory, why couldn't April or May exhaust the inventory?


The bears and bulls have been arguing over these demand myths for a years now, but nobody really has an idea how 10,000 cars/week are split across all these new markets this quarter.

I'm not going to attempt to guess and split hairs over a newly entered market, especially throwing in the pressure of tariffs and the well known plans for a local factory in the picture to boot.

Too many variables, and lot of eager experts, crystal balls on hand, willing to sell their services around that since 2008.

Here's a popular one, like many others like this guy, was off by a mile:
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/06/01/re ... ust-sayin/

So, Morgan Stanley’s 2020 forecast for Tesla deliveries was achieved in 2018. Furthermore, Tesla looks on track to hit its 2020 target, which Morgan Stanley forecasted Tesla wouldn’t hit until 2025.

Anyway, the end result is each unit is sold regardless of where it ends up, because supply is the bottleneck. And catching up to overall demand will remain a constant challenge until those new factories get online.
Last edited by wierdo on Tue Jun 25, 2019 1:21 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Tue Jun 25, 2019 1:18 pm

wierdo wrote:
Anyway, the end result is each unit is sold regardless of where it ends up, because supply is the bottleneck


That is a completely insane way of looking at it, because that criteria is true even if Tesla sells every car for a single dollar.

The argument that demand isn't an issue, but supply is, simply because all the cars will eventually be sold is ... :o


EDIT: Also, good lord, the absurdity of denouncing "suits" and then preening about, of all possible things, stock price predictions... I can't even.

And when you mention, gratuitously, a "bear/bull" dichotomy, please, can you stop this so-called "Nerdy/geeky" thing?

I WANT TO GET OFF.
 
dragontamer5788
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Tue Jun 25, 2019 1:37 pm

wierdo wrote:
dragontamer5788 wrote:
wierdo wrote:
Probably because Tesla sells more than just the Model 3, they have other models - and products - in that market. I believe they only started selling the Model 3 in March - sold 5300 for that month, exhausting the inventory.

Wait, so they sold 5300 M3 in China in March, but only managed to sell 2000 in China in May? I'm going to need a citation for your 5300 March number. If Tesla sales are declining already, that's a horrible sign. I would hope, for Tesla's sake, that Tesla's May numbers should be better than Tesla's March numbers.

I mean, month-to-month numbers shouldn't necessarily be increasing exponentially or anything (at least, not until the Shanghai factory is complete). But we're talking about a 62% decline in deliveries if your 5300 in March number is accurate. If March exhausted the inventory, why couldn't April or May exhaust the inventory?


The bears and bulls have been arguing over these demand myths for a years now, but nobody really has an idea how 10,000 cars/week are split across all these new markets this quarter.


10,000 cars/week over 3-months is 120,000 cars. Tesla will not sell 120,000 cars this quarter. I bet Tesla will be 90,000 cars to 100,000 cars. Elon Musk has been pumping the car pretty hard the past few months, there's the $3750 -> $1875 halving of the Tax Credit, and several other factors which may make Q2 2019 a record-quarter for deliveries (most noticeably, the 10,000 "cars on a boat" that carried over from Q1 2019).

My personal estimate is 95,000 cars/quarter lines up to ~8000 cars/week. This is Model 3 + Model S + Model X estimates, total cars across the board. This would beat Q4 2018 by about 5k cars, but the price cuts they instated the past few months would absolutely destroy their bottom-line. I think a loss of $300+ Million is quite possible for Q2 2019, even if they sold a record number of cars.

Q4 2019 was 90,700 vehicles, it is absolutely essential for Tesla to demonstrate that they're a growing company. Remember: Q4 2018 did not have Europe or China Model 3 cars, so they have to match (or beat) Q4 2019 numbers to prove that they are still a growing company.

In any case, 120,000 cars is a complete pipe-dream. 100k cars would be aggressive, but its possible given how much Tesla is expanding into Europe, China, and Canada. Bears on Twitter seem to be estimating ~85k cars.

There's only a few weeks left in the quarter. We'll have Tesla's Q2 2019 numbers within a month or two. At that point, we'll know if you were right, or if I was right.

I'm not going to attempt to guess and split hairs over a newly entered market, especially throwing in the pressure of tariffs and the well known plans for a local factory in the picture to boot.

Too many variables, and lot of eager experts, crystal balls on hand, willing to sell their services around that since 2008.


I appreciate your honesty, but predicting the number of cars sold is absolutely essential to determining whether or not Tesla will survive in 3 years. As I've said many times in this thread: it all comes down to the number of cars that Tesla creates and delivers. They do have a positive gross-margin car, they just aren't selling enough of them yet.

You may not believe me, but I never believed that Tesla had bankruptcy risk until now. My absolute earliest estimate for bankruptcy is 2021 (and only if everything goes wrong in the next two years). It seems possible to me that Tesla, even with Elon Musk's subpar leadership skills, can survive the 2021 bond repayment. 2022 and 2024 however would be far more difficult to survive. Unfortunately, this prediction of mine is between 3-to-5 years out, and lots of things can change between today and then.

Tesla needs bold action to cut out its expenses and survive past its 2021, 2022, and 2024 $Billion+ loan payments. And I've been losing hope that Elon Musk is up to that challenge.

Here's a popular one, like many others like this guy, was off by a mile:


I don't think you get it. The estimates I'm putting down here are my estimates. I'm not pulling them from blog posts or from other researchers. When I'm wrong, I'll be willing to take the abuse. Feel free to chastise me in a few weeks if my 90k to 100k estimate is wrong for Q2 2019.
Last edited by dragontamer5788 on Tue Jun 25, 2019 1:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Tue Jun 25, 2019 1:51 pm

Dragontamer5788 wrote:
10,000 cars/week over 3-months is 120,000 cars. Tesla will not sell 120,000 cars this quarter. I bet Tesla will be 90,000 cars to 100,000 cars.


Which is Tesla's actual guidance.

But, once again, why would we listen to Tesla about Tesla? We have wierdo here, who disdains "suits" and extol "geeks" but yet seems to think he's better informed about Tesla's management than Tesla's actual managers.

EDIT: I guess, since it keeps being insinuated that I'm mistaken or lying, I should demonstrate this:

https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/b2218 ... 0eb29dd42f

Actual, for-real, stated-to-the-government, Tesla wrote:
"We believe we will deliver between 90,000 and 100,000 vehicles in Q2"
Last edited by Glorious on Tue Jun 25, 2019 1:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
dragontamer5788
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Tue Jun 25, 2019 1:52 pm

Glorious wrote:
Which is Tesla's actual guidance.


Uh oh, you've figured out my secret analysis technique.

EDIT: I guess, since it keeps being insinuated that I'm mistaken or lying, I should demonstrate this:


Nope. Being honest. I lifted the numbers from Tesla's official numbers. I fully admit it. With that being said, the "technique" of taking Tesla's estimates is a very safe strategy when it comes towards predicting the future.

There are other analysts on SeekingAlpha, Bloomberg, or whatever. But those analysts are usually sell-side analysts with poor research skills (their goal is to sell the stock, not to sell good information. That's why they give information away for free: because its shoddy analysis. They're basically glorified marketers). Buy-side analysis is private and I can't afford that. So the best source of solid information is the official documents from the company itself.
Last edited by dragontamer5788 on Tue Jun 25, 2019 2:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Glorious
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Tue Jun 25, 2019 1:58 pm

dragontamer5788 wrote:
Uh oh, you've figured out my secret analysis technique.


Which they so cleverly hide in public, government-mandated, filings!
 
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Tue Jun 25, 2019 2:08 pm

Dragontamer5788 wrote:
Nope. Being honest. I lifted the numbers from Tesla's official numbers. I fully admit it. With that being said, the "technique" of taking Tesla's estimates is a very safe strategy when it comes towards predicting the future.


Oh I meant Wierdo, who seems to think I'm wrong about everything, including myself (Apparently I'm "retired"--who knew? Not me!).

Given your argument, I sort of figured you just arrived at the same number through the analysis you describe. I didn't even think of it as a coincidence--just a parallel and independent conclusion that was identical because the situation it was predicated upon is.

I mean, it's not like Tesla is being stunningly precise with 90-100, right? :lol:

EDIT: To be clear (directed at wierdo), I'd rather Tesla do great. At a minimum, a lot of people work for them, including several people I personally know.

But sure, I'm a bear, and I'm this, and I'm that....
 
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Tue Jun 25, 2019 2:14 pm

dragontamer5788 wrote:
wierdo wrote:
dragontamer5788 wrote:
Wait, so they sold 5300 M3 in China in March, but only managed to sell 2000 in China in May? I'm going to need a citation for your 5300 March number. If Tesla sales are declining already, that's a horrible sign. I would hope, for Tesla's sake, that Tesla's May numbers should be better than Tesla's March numbers.

I mean, month-to-month numbers shouldn't necessarily be increasing exponentially or anything (at least, not until the Shanghai factory is complete). But we're talking about a 62% decline in deliveries if your 5300 in March number is accurate. If March exhausted the inventory, why couldn't April or May exhaust the inventory?


The bears and bulls have been arguing over these demand myths for a years now, but nobody really has an idea how 10,000 cars/week are split across all these new markets this quarter.


My personal estimate is 95,000 cars/quarter lines up to ~8000 cars/week. This is Model 3 + Model S + Model X estimates, total cars across the board. This would beat Q4 2018 by about 5k cars, but the price cuts they instated the past few months would absolutely destroy their bottom-line. I think a loss of $300+ Million is quite possible for Q2 2019, even if they sold a record number of cars.

The 10k/week I think may be their peak output, they could probably consistently hit 10k/week for all their models combined, or 10k/week peak for Model 3. Usually they run close to their peak around the end of the quarter to hit some target number.

My guess was actually for them to roughly match last quarter's shipments, but then achieve a breakeven or small profit from efficiency gains, and to account for them having to absorb the overhead from the shipping lag when they started selling overseas. It was a drag on their last quarter's balance but now should be out of the picture as last quarter's delayed shipments get accounted for under this one.

Then medium-term to begin bringing in higher revenue as they switch on the new factory, incorporate their new designs that introduce new stamping equipment to drastically lower the number of parts under the vehicles for better costs, and maybe do something with their recent Maxwell acquisition, that's supposed to be a big one.

The Chinese were about to get in on it when the US government stepped in and prevented the deal from going through, then Tesla picked it up instead. All I know so far is they have demonstrated working implementations for dry electrode technology and ultra-capacitors, I think Tesla was interested in the dry electrode stuff, maybe they plan to bring battery manufacturing in-house as well.

Either way I'm pretty excited to see what new improvements they bring to their cars. The minor refresh this quarter bumped the Model S's range up to 370 miles along with a new adaptive shock absorbing system that reminds me of the stuff they do with Army Humvees. The Model 3's charging rate also got upgraded by 20 percent last week through a software update, one customer got 50 percent of their range in 12 minutes after that update.

Image
(https://electrek.co/2019/06/21/tesla-mo ... re-update/)

Stuff like this is what gets me excited for the future, seeing startups rise and do pretty cool stuff like that to shake things up a bit.
Last edited by wierdo on Tue Jun 25, 2019 2:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
“...so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat.”Theodore Roosevelt
 
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Tue Jun 25, 2019 2:25 pm

wierdo wrote:
Either way I'm pretty excited to see what new improvements they bring to their cars. The minor one this quarter bumped the Model S's range up to 370 miles, and the Model 3's charging rate got upgraded by another 20 percent last week through software, one customer got 50 percent of their range in 12 minutes after that update.


Are you ever going to address how Tesla, when it capped charging at 4.07v instead of ~4.2, reduced range by something like 10-15%?

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... re.154976/
 
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Tue Jun 25, 2019 2:25 pm

wierdo wrote:
My guess was actually for them to roughly match last quarter's shipments, but then achieve a breakeven or small profit from efficiency gains, and to account for them having to absorb the overhead from the shipping lag when they started selling overseas. It was a drag on their last quarter's balance but now should be out of the picture as last quarter's delayed shipments get accounted for under this one.


FYI: Last quarter's shipments was ~63k cars or so, with ~10k cars or so "on a boat". All together, 73k or so cars on that estimate.

Tesla will probably be well above 73k cars delivered.
 
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Tue Jun 25, 2019 2:32 pm

dragontamer5788 wrote:
FYI: Last quarter's shipments was ~63k cars or so, with ~10k cars or so "on a boat". All together, 73k or so cars on that estimate.

Tesla will probably be well above 73k cars delivered.


You'd hope so, considering they gave guidance of 360k-400k delivers in 2019(with no revisions despite Q2 closing shortly), which means that they need to be delivering 90-100 year quarter, and so they're already 27k behind.
 
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Tue Jun 25, 2019 2:34 pm

Glorious wrote:

I WANT TO GET OFF.

Me too, but wife's at school.
 
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Tue Jun 25, 2019 3:03 pm

dragontamer5788 wrote:
wierdo wrote:
My guess was actually for them to roughly match last quarter's shipments, but then achieve a breakeven or small profit from efficiency gains, and to account for them having to absorb the overhead from the shipping lag when they started selling overseas. It was a drag on their last quarter's balance but now should be out of the picture as last quarter's delayed shipments get accounted for under this one.


FYI: Last quarter's shipments was ~63k cars or so, with ~10k cars or so "on a boat". All together, 73k or so cars on that estimate.

Tesla will probably be well above 73k cars delivered.

If they sell close to their record quarter again, then that would be even better yes. The question is if their Model S/X refresh was enough to attract buyers who may be looking at the more affordable Model 3 instead right now.

We'll see, maybe they can hit something past the 80k range if things work out for them. I think the biggest variable is how much cost cutting they were able to achieve at this point for the short-term results to keep the rabid bears at bay.

I don't think they'll have trouble while they wait for their new factory either way.
“...so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat.”Theodore Roosevelt
 
Glorious
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Tue Jun 25, 2019 3:23 pm

wierdo wrote:
I think the biggest variable is how much cost cutting they were able to achieve at this point for the short-term results to keep the rabid bears at bay.


Right, because the only adversity that Tesla faces is that there are people who still, somehow, fail to believe that they are the greatest thing ever.

If only everyone believed that, you see, they would be.

Right?

---

If the biggest threat to the advancement of something is simply whether or not people believe in it, I mean, is this a for-profit company? Or a religion?
 
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Tue Jun 25, 2019 4:15 pm

Ya know, personally since I'm still not 100% sold on EVs (though I want one eventually...)I'm just really happy to see everything getting a hybrid version now. I wanted a Kia Niro, but that Nissan Rogue SV Hybrid looks pretty sweet with AEB included. (I'm nowhere near ready to buy yet, so take that as you will.)

My car just hit a deer a bit over a month ago so I'm still kind of...mentally recuperating.
Meow.
 
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Tue Jun 25, 2019 5:42 pm

LostCat wrote:
Ya know, personally since I'm still not 100% sold on EVs (though I want one eventually...)I'm just really happy to see everything getting a hybrid version now. I wanted a Kia Niro, but that Nissan Rogue SV Hybrid looks pretty sweet with AEB included. (I'm nowhere near ready to buy yet, so take that as you will.)

My car just hit a deer a bit over a month ago so I'm still kind of...mentally recuperating.

I guess it depends on your usage case, some lifestyle examples to consider:
- Are you living in an apartment without plug access vs having your own home with a laundry plug in the garage?
- How often do you go out of town, 99 percent of your driving is under 50 or 100 miles? Or the other way around? The more you travel the more you benefit from an EV, but also the more you have to think about how to charge it, there's a sweet spot somewhere in there depending on the EV model.
- Does the EV you're looking at have good access to reliable charger networks for long trips and such? Might help address the prior point, or help you decide if you need a second car for those trips out of town - or just rent one for a couple days, I don't like putting miles on my personal vehicles so this is how I deal with it even when I had a gas car.
- Does your area offer good incentives? Down here EVs qualify for a $2500 EV rebate for example. Can help you consider vehicles outside the normal budget, maybe your need could be addressed by doing so sometimes.

The thing with EVs is if you find yourself close to the sweet spot on features then you could potentially save yourself thousands of dollars in fueling and service hassle over the lifetime of that vehicle, and instead of going out of your way every other week to find a cheap gas station, you just head home and plug, wake up the next day to a full tank, pretty much every day.

Here's a typical maintenance guide for an EV as an example, pretty simple:
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/06/12/te ... i-thought/

But for some people in apartments or rural areas with little infrastructure development, these benefits are difficult to realize without some planning.

There's a decent selection of EVs with ranges past 200 miles today, might be worth a test drive. If nothing else it'll give you an idea on what to expect for the next vehicle purchase, as by 2025 pretty much any respectable car company will have a "proper" EV model on offer.
“...so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat.”Theodore Roosevelt

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