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Buy or Lease a new EV

Buy
14 (40%)
Lease
11 (31%)
Neither and spend all available funds buying delicious cheese. (But I'd still need a vehicle to haul the cheese)
10 (29%)
 
Total votes: 35
 
Glorious
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Mon Jul 08, 2019 5:29 pm

Again that is specifically for battery PACKS, which means what you are actually charting is the ramping up of mass production.

Yes, as you go from 1,000 a year to 1 million, the economy of scale dramatically reduces your per unit costs.

And, as I already told you, this doesn't matter: if the cost of the battery pack is only 10-20% of the vehicle, so what? EVs aren't just a 10-20% premium.
 
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Mon Jul 08, 2019 5:32 pm

ludi wrote:
Right, so someone thinks road ICEs still use carburetors. Sounds like a reliable, up-to-date source of information



Hahhahaha I didn't even catch that hhahal
 
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Mon Jul 08, 2019 10:07 pm

Your wording implied that the entire vehicle had only 20 moving parts, not just the motor. If we're talking manufacturing costs/complexity it makes more sense to compare the entire vehicle anyway, not just the power plant.
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wierdo
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Tue Jul 09, 2019 10:43 am

just brew it! wrote:
Your wording implied that the entire vehicle had only 20 moving parts, not just the motor. If we're talking manufacturing costs/complexity it makes more sense to compare the entire vehicle anyway, not just the power plant.

Sure, there are many ways to cut it, a ballpark discussion, but it doesn't really change the point about design complexity.

For the whole vehicle, here's a breakdown:
https://www.quora.com/How-many-moving-p ... c-car-have
In terms of part counts - Electric Motors by themselves have up 4 moving parts - if you count bearings as a single moving part - those would be the rotor, and 2 - 3 bearings between rotor and Sta tor/motor housing.

The reducer gear constitutes 8 - 10 moving parts by the same logic as the motor plus a few spacers, though this can depend on the type of reducer gear they use. Planetary is typical for High RPM electric motors, which would be a large number of moving parts, though I feel like I’ve heard they use a helical spur in Teslas.

Differentials would be the most complex part of the system, racking up about a dozen moving parts. the wheels have 3 each.

Worst case for entire vehicle, broken down by number of motors used:
Single Motor 2WD, worst case - 80 - 90 moving parts
Double Motor 4WD, Worst Case - 90–100 moving parts
IWM 4WD, worst case - 70 - 80 Moving parts

Still the same story, order of magnitude levels in complexity reduction. This is a goldmine waiting for mass production to pick up on, right now EVs are produced in small numbers by most companies, the tables will turn eventually, especially in Europe, though the biggest gains will still be in the constantly improving battery technology.

FireGryphon wrote:
I try not to get too lost in numbers. I notice a lot of Teslas driving around, and not just in rich areas; I'm talking about in working class neighborhoods where there isn't a rich person for miles and miles. Tesla is doing something right...

Yeah same, it's like Teslas everywhere down here, a friend just test drove one yesterday, another friend's Tesla. They're just starting to enter international markets too, so that's a ton of untapped demand on the table:

https://www.ibtimes.com/tesla-model-3-t ... re-2805192
Tesla CEO Elon Musk wasn’t kidding when he said that the company was actually breaking its records despite the negative press surrounding the company
...
The Model S and X have received some slight growth while the Model 3 got up to 320 percent in their second quarter.

So anyway, like mentioned earlier, the (real world) experts predict battery costs will continue to fall at the same rapid pace, and yes reduced design complexity means mass production will further amplify the cost benefits, translating to cost parity reached around 2022-2025, after that EVs overtake ICE vehicles in manufacturing cost as mass production kicks in.

I would recommend keeping an eye on a company like VW for affordable 200+ mile EVs in 2022-2025, I'm not sure which vehicles they'll bring down to the states, but they are quite focused on the 30k price point for their vehicles around that time range. I'm gonna bet that Reno's Zoe line will get there first though, I just wish they had a presence this side of the Atlantic.

Tesla may concentrate on the premium market for a while as they are still going to be production limited, the China factory may help address Asia, but their upcoming Model Y will probably put a strain on their capacity as the market segment it's addressing is 2.5 times larger than the Sedan niche the Model 3 competes in, they'll need more factories, next one likely in Europe.

The only question mark after that is how far along self-driving progress will be, meaning companies may end up switching gears to creating their own fleets and lean less on consumer models. It's too early to tell how that goes I think.
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Tue Jul 09, 2019 12:12 pm

wierdo wrote:
So anyway, like mentioned earlier, the (real world) experts predict battery costs will continue to fall at the same rapid pace


Oh yeah? The experts, you say?

Who are these experts?

And if they are experts, why is their stated "methodology" absolutely hilarious?
 
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Tue Jul 09, 2019 12:26 pm

wierdo wrote:
So anyway, like mentioned earlier, the (real world) experts predict battery costs will continue to fall at the same rapid pace,

They CAN'T. According to the data YOU posted on the previous page, we've shaved ~85% off the cost of the batteries since 2010, and the battery cost curve is, out of necessity, starting to flatten out. Basic math says that "the same rapid pace" cannot be maintained unless battery costs start to go negative.
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Tue Jul 09, 2019 12:50 pm

No way JBI, the real world experts have repealed the law of diminishing returns.
 
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Tue Jul 09, 2019 1:47 pm

Glorious wrote:
Who are these experts?

Top men. Top men.
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Tue Jul 09, 2019 3:51 pm

Man allot of people seem to be clinging on to legacy technology, when did betting against progress ever work out for the conservative crowd? Anyone still riding a horse to work these days?

EV prices have been falling steadily for the last ten years, from $140,000 for a 240 mile roadster, to $90,000 for an equivalent range Model S, and now $50,000 Model 3 with a 310 miles or range, or even $40,000 with 240 miles like the first generation.

What's so hard about seeing VW come out with their $30,000ish EV in 2022-2025 time-frame?
(My bet is on Korean manufacturers getting there first personally, but I don't see why Germany can't pull it off as well if they're serious)

(22kWh is pretty small, a proper base EV will need to have 50-60kWh)
https://www.irena.org/costs/Charts/Electric-vehicles
Image

Lets not be ridiculous, this stagnation fallacy is comical.

* And in before more pedantic nitpicking on exact prices or whatever silly sideshow comes up, because yeah that totally invalidates the general concept.
Last edited by wierdo on Tue Jul 09, 2019 4:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Tue Jul 09, 2019 4:00 pm

Look, I REALLY REALLY want EVs to succeed too. But when you make claims like "EVs have only 20 moving parts" and "battery costs will continue to fall at the same rate they have been", when these statements are trivially provable as impossible/false, your credibility goes right out the window.

Maybe try at least proofreading what you're about to post, and make sure what you're saying actually makes sense before clicking the Submit button, so you don't continually post nonsense?
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Tue Jul 09, 2019 4:00 pm

I am not a car guy. There's a good chance the majority of people involved in this thread know much more about this topic than I do, so instead I'm going to quote Neal Stephenson. He might not be a car guy either, but he's got something figured out here which I think is valuable.

one of the Miasma's perversities was that it made otherwise sane people like him--people who had better things they could have been doing--devote energy to arguing with completely random ****, many of whom probably didn't even believe their own arguments, some of whom weren't even human.


Now I'm going back to work.
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Tue Jul 09, 2019 4:54 pm

just brew it! wrote:
Look, I REALLY REALLY want EVs to succeed too. But when you make claims like "EVs have only 20 moving parts" and "battery costs will continue to fall at the same rate they have been", when these statements are trivially provable as impossible/false, your credibility goes right out the window.

Maybe try at least proofreading what you're about to post before clicking the Submit button, so you don't continually post nonsense?

Ok, so I'm probably misunderstanding your concern here. I don't mean to be confrontational with the following questions, apologies in advance, but I just brainstormed these so I can get a better understanding:

1. Do you not believe that EVs are much simpler - thus much cheaper to manufacture - platforms compared to legacy ICE technology? If so, Why?

I'm confused as to what we're arguing here, do you just dispute the part numbers? What numbers do you think are correct for the two technologies? Or do you disagree that this simplification of vehicle production translates to lower costs? Why? It's not going to change the big picture if it's 10 parts more or less, so what's the point of this?

2. Why is is impossible for batteries to follow the same cost drop trajectory? You have not explained why you think so.

Do you think they will be hitting a research wall on dry electrode tech? Or run out of improvements to battery chemistry the next five years? I don't get the negativity on this assessment by industry experts that's been consistent with trends so far.

The only thing I got from your argument is that batteries dropped so much in cost already that they're now a smaller piece of the cost pie, but that ignores the fact that we're so close to producing mainstream(*) EVs right now as is, we already hit the $35,000 price point for 200+ mile EVs, we just need to hit $30,000 price point next.

Buyers are not stupid, they'll figure out the TCO benefits of a better technology once prices start coming within a stone's throw from what they're looking at, and that's gonna snowball demand.

https://evadoption.com/ev-sales/ev-sales-forecasts/
Image
(overall "USA" chart hits that 6 years later, the average will likely trail EU and China's progress, but Cali will probably keep up due to income and policy factors)

With demand targets growing exponentially at that price target, EV manufacturers would in return be accelerating production targets to meet that increased demand, further dropping per-vehicle costs through mass production gains.

And then we have almost every manufacturer under the sun planning to make these EVs, that competition will further put downward pressure on prices as well as third party parts.

(*) Lets say that's a Camry, barebones for ~25k, ~30k with options. If it's a Corolla then options become limited to those short range city cars like the Leaf, or the used EV market, which is not unusual for that budget bracket.
Last edited by wierdo on Tue Jul 09, 2019 5:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Tue Jul 09, 2019 5:11 pm

Also, related to the topic of cost related improvements in EV production, I thought I'd share a couple interesting stuff to look for around the corner from Tesla, for example:

"Tesla patents new type of cable easier to manipulate by robots in move to automate production"
https://electrek.co/2018/10/12/tesla-pa ... roduction/
"Tesla Model Y To Ditch 12-Volt Battery, 95% Less Wiring Than Model 3"
https://insideevs.com/news/332478/tesla ... n-model-3/

Model S has about 3 kilometers of wiring harness and Tesla brought it down to 1.5 kilometers in length for the Model 3.
With future vehicle platforms, Tesla aims to bring it down to just 100 meters starting with the Model Y.

Probably one of the benefits of replacing 80 third party chips with a single unified monolithic unit to serve as the brain of the EV.

I think more companies will probably go this route down the road.

“Traditional cables, such as component cables, USB cables, or HDMI cables are easy to manipulate with human hands for connecting with appropriate connectors that are disposed on different structures or devices. However, the installation of these cables is difficult to automate. The cables lack sufficient structural integrity and rigidity to be easily picked up, moved, and placed by a robotic arm. Further, because traditional cables are not rigid, they may not be easily formed into different shapes and routed to a pre-determined location amidst tight spatial constraints. Routing traditional, flexible cables during manufacturing, for example to connect different components during automobile manufacturing, typically cannot be automated and therefore require humans to place by hand. Such manual placement is time consuming, tedious, and costly."

The proposed solution in the article, easier to explain with the pictures there.
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Tue Jul 09, 2019 5:21 pm

4 wheels, 4 brake calipers, 4 sets of brake pads (2 to a set), 4 struts/shock absorbers, 4 springs. I'm over 20 moving parts and I haven't even got to the rest of the suspension, let alone everything else.

This is why you look/feel exactly like your nick.
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Tue Jul 09, 2019 7:02 pm

wierdo wrote:
1. Do you not believe that EVs are much simpler - thus much cheaper to manufacture - platforms compared to legacy ICE technology? If so, Why?

The EV power train is simpler yes. But ICEs are a very mature, well-understood technology so they are (relatively) cheap to manufacture, and furthermore don't require expensive rare-earth magnets. EVs also require costly high power electronics to drive the motors, so there are additional costs that aren't directly associated with "moving parts".

Furthermore, the statement I originally took issue with was your statement that EVs have "only 20 moving parts". Clearly, a functional vehicle has a lot more than 20 moving parts.

wierdo wrote:
I'm confused as to what we're arguing here, do you just dispute the part numbers? What numbers do you think are correct for the two technologies? Or do you disagree that this simplification of vehicle production translates to lower costs? Why? It's not going to change the big picture if it's 10 parts more or less, so what's the point of this?

The point is that the fact that an electric motor has fewer moving parts than an ICE is only a small part of the equation because there are other costs involved besides "moving parts". And some of those costs are higher for an EV.

wierdo wrote:
2. Why is is impossible for batteries to follow the same cost drop trajectory? You have not explained why you think so.

Your own data proves it. We've already eliminated MOST of the cost (about 85%, per the graph you posted) associated with the batteries in the past 9 years. Which leaves only 15% to go before the battery cost is reduced to zero (and clearly the batteries will never be free). We can't eliminate a comparable amount of battery cost over the next 9 years because that would require the cost of the batteries to become negative.
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Tue Jul 09, 2019 7:04 pm

Captain Ned wrote:
4 wheels, 4 brake calipers, 4 sets of brake pads (2 to a set), 4 struts/shock absorbers, 4 springs. I'm over 20 moving parts and I haven't even got to the rest of the suspension, let alone everything else.

This is why you look/feel exactly like your nick.

Or maybe your definition of moving parts is different from how others are counting it, who knows. Perhaps they consider the wheel/brake as a single system for example, whatever, as long as they do it consistently for ICE then that's fine. Make it 50 like the other source I linked, fine.

This is not the point though, I'm talking about a concept and we're stuck on inconsequential nitpicking of details like a cashier counts pennies, do people not get big picture thinking?

Heck, do you think every single EV and ICE is gonna have exactly the same number of parts? Come on, we're talking ballpark figures to make a point.

And the point is the order of magnitude decrease in moving parts, whether it's 10 or 100 parts vs 1000 or 10000, the point remains the same regardless: Less complexity means easier and cheaper to manufacturer. Can we agree on that basic assertion?

Anyway, I just ran across a recent announcement that I thought related well to this discussion. It looks like companies are already making big moves in an effort to meet demand for that predicted price parity period:

"LG Chem To Increase Battery Sales Fivefold By 2024"
https://insideevs.com/news/358947/lg-ch ... fold-2024/

Electric car battery sales will become the biggest part of LG Chem's business with a share of around 50% and revenues of $26.7 billion

Already making price targets and sales projections based on that too:
Depending on the price per kWh, the total sales of batteries in 2024 could be:
$150 per kWh: 178 GWh
$125 per kWh: 214 GWh
$100 per kWh: 267 GWh
$75 per kWh: 356 GWh


So things are certainly getting interesting! Probably VW will swallow up a ton of that production and then some according to their roadmap.
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Tue Jul 09, 2019 7:39 pm

just brew it! wrote:
The EV power train is simpler yes. But ICEs are a very mature, well-understood technology so they are (relatively) cheap to manufacture, and furthermore don't require expensive rare-earth magnets. EVs also require costly high power electronics to drive the motors, so there are additional costs that aren't directly associated with "moving parts".

Granted, but this is precisely why it makes sense that EVs will drop in costs quite significantly in the future, because right now they're not produced in anywhere close to the same numbers as legacy ICE vehicles. The manufacturers have sunk a ton of investment into their ICE based manufacturing infrastructure and understandably did not want to invest in ones for EVs, but they don't have a choice as time goes by, they will be adapting or going out of business.

Right now Mercedes is trying to build both EV and ICE models off their existing production lines, with mixed results, the EQ line has quite a poor range for such a big battery size. This is not gonna help them compete globally with the Chinese or Koreans down the road, or even Tesla.

You bring up a good point about rare earth metals, manufacturers are going to need to diversify and expand their sources as China has a major head start in this area as well, they are doing everything they can to be the cheapest source of parts and resources, but simplicity of design may also mean we have a chance to stay price competitive through automation, something even the Chinese are doing as well because of the rapidly falling costs.

Rare earth metals, despite the name, are not really rare, it's just that China has achieved the lowest extraction costs and driven other miners out, with demand growing this means we'll need to start thinking about securing our own supplies, for national security reasons if nothing else.

just brew it! wrote:
Your own data proves it. We've already eliminated MOST of the cost (about 85%, per the graph you posted) associated with the batteries in the past 9 years. Which leaves only 15% to go before the battery cost is reduced to zero (and clearly the batteries will never be free). We can't eliminate a comparable amount of battery cost over the next 9 years because that would require the cost of the batteries to become negative.

Ok lets look at it this way:

https://www.ucsusa.org/clean-vehicles/e ... rials-cost
Image

A 50kWh battery pack would have cost:
2010: $800/kWh x50 = $40,000
2014: $400/kWh x50 = $20,000
2018: $200/kWh x50 = $10,000

Add future trend predictions:
2022: $100/kWh x50 = $5,000
2025: $80/kWh x50 = $4,000
2030: $60/kWh x50 = $3,000

So sure, $5000 cost savings is not as amazing as $20000 from ten years ago, but it's not insignificant. Even $1000 is a good chunk of change past 2025, especially including the cost savings from accelerated mass production and a maturing process, something that ICE vehicle production currently enjoys temporarily as you alluded to earlier - one can be amazed that EVs with their lower unit production levels can compete this well as is considering that infrastructure advantage.

I think maybe you're thinking of the cost drops as some fixed dollar figure rather than the percentages shown in the graphs, is that the reason? That's the only thing I can think of that would explain the "would require the cost of the batteries to become negative" assertion.

For example $200/kWh to $100/kWh cost drop estimates is still a 50 percent, or only 12.5 per year between 2018 and 2022, that's not a crazy number, there's nothing crazy about saying costs are gonna drop at a similar pattern to past levels here, despite the diminishing - but still quite significant - returns.
Last edited by wierdo on Tue Jul 09, 2019 7:46 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Tue Jul 09, 2019 7:46 pm

Oh, look. It's the Energizer Bunny of using wild predictions as facts.

I'll make it simple. I'll buy an EV when it comes with a Mr. Fusion.

EDIT: Elon, it's not nice to hide on fora.
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Tue Jul 09, 2019 9:34 pm

Yes, as the total cost drops, reducing it by a fixed percentage nets you less savings in real dollar terms. Diminishing returns (as Ned already pointed out).

And even with the cost reductions, total cost of the battery pack is a lot more than your numbers indicate, since actual Tesla batteries are 75-100 kWh, not 50. So even by 2025, you're looking at 6-8 K$ (probably more than the cost of a typical ICE!) for the battery pack alone, never mind the motors and electronics to drive them.

The whole "number of moving parts" rationale is silly since a big chunk of the cost in an EV lies elsewhere, and at the end of the day it even undercuts your argument about large cost reductions being possible as production ramps up further - if the powertrain is really that simple, wouldn't Tesla have already figured out how to manufacture them economically?
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Wed Jul 10, 2019 12:15 pm

just brew it! wrote:
And even with the cost reductions, total cost of the battery pack is a lot more than your numbers indicate, since actual Tesla batteries are 75-100 kWh, not 50. So even by 2025, you're looking at 6-8 K$ (probably more than the cost of a typical ICE!) for the battery pack alone, never mind the motors and electronics to drive them.

Well, that's a design question, depends on design criteria. For example allot of companies are not ready to ditch the pointless front grill, EVs don't use a radiator like that. I guess they fear customers would find that change too jarring visually.

So for example (EPA ranges):
- The base Model 3 with ~220 miles range is 54kWh, the ~240 miles range is 68kWh, the ~310 miles model is 80kWh - or 50kw, 62kw, 75kw excluding reserve, but for costs that wouldn't make sense. I didn't check the reserve for the other models below btw, should be similar.
- The ~210 mile Reno Zoe is 52kWh.
- The ~220 mile Leaf is 62kWh.
- The ~250 mile US Hyundai Kona and ~235 mile Kia Nero are 64kWh (I believe shared platform).
- The ~200 mile (inefficient) Mercedes EQC is 80kWh (they're trying to use a unified gas+electric platform).
(etc)

EVs are much more sensitive to range optimizations like body shape, software design/tweaks, and even wheel size/covers, but ideally you can hit 200 miles at 50kWh if you optimize the design for that, VW should have no trouble hitting that with their ID3 hatchback model if they do their homework.

Take a base Model 3, drop the range 10 percent, reduce motor performance to that of a mainstream car, it's an overkill motor, and reduce battery weight with higher energy density, happens at a rate of about 8 percent per year, and you can hit that easily, even go beyond that at some point. Maybe by 2030 you could do the same with less than 40kWh, who knows, but in 2020 50kWh is a good benchmark target imho.

https://pushevs.com/2017/03/20/tesla-le ... mpetition/
Image

Allot of companies are currently trying to delay/reduce investment costs by building on an unoptimized unified platform, and/or design a shape that's more familiar to the buyer, which comes with sacrifices, but that's just a design choice.

just brew it! wrote:
if the powertrain is really that simple, wouldn't Tesla have already figured out how to manufacture them economically?

Tesla does makes positive margins in the double digits (percentage) per vehicle, they may report positive and negative margins per quarter, but that's outside of per vehicle margins. The China factory is expected to cut costs by fifty percent as well for the Asia market models.

https://insideevs.com/news/340474/lets- ... mid-range/
(just educated estimates and the math from that point in time)
Image
It helps that they produce in a month what GM produces (Bolts) in a year, you can't spread out the fixed costs across Bolt's low "compliance" levels of production, and GM itself alludes to this themselves, they were not serious about EVs beside PR so far, but they are now talking about a serious ramp up as well, lets hope they stay focused.

You start to get there at Model 3 production levels, but they got a long way to go, it's still nothing compared to the mainstream market levels of production.

I'm talking Toyota's Corolla or even Camry lines levels, we're not there by a long shot. Might take some time for them to reach Toyota's legendary levels of manufacturing efficiency as a company that just started recently. Still, considering these hurdles I think this is a good sign.
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Wed Jul 10, 2019 12:52 pm

wierdo wrote:
just brew it! wrote:
if the powertrain is really that simple, wouldn't Tesla have already figured out how to manufacture them economically?

Tesla does makes positive margins in the double digits (percentage) per vehicle, they may report positive and negative margins per quarter, but that's outside of per vehicle margins. The China factory is expected to cut costs by fifty percent as well for the Asia market models.


On the contrary. Tesla's gross-margins include selling the vehicle to the customer. While every other auto-manufacturer reports gross-margins by selling the vehicle at wholesale prices to the dealerships. In effect: gross-margins for every other vehicle maker in the world factors in the "price of sales" into their margin. Its by the very nature of their sales / revenue. Ford and Toyota don't really sell direct to customers (not typically anyway). Only Tesla does that.

---------

Look, Tesla had a record Q2 2019. They delivered the most number of vehicles it has ever done in its entire life. Each of these vehicles are "gross margin positive" (by Tesla's definition). And yet... I fully bet they will lose hundreds-of-millions in Q2 2019.

Despite selling the most cars ever, Tesla simply isn't selling their cars at a high enough price to profit (once you factor in the cost of their sales channel). And remember, other manufacturers pay $0 for sales. Dealerships pay sales costs, manufacturers only pay for making the vehicle.

I'm talking Toyota's Corolla or even Camry lines levels, we're not there by a long shot. Might take some time for them to reach Toyota's legendary levels of manufacturing efficiency as a company that just started recently. Still, considering these hurdles I think this is a good sign.


No one really wants Toyota levels of efficiency. Toyota is a monster. The only thing people want (well, I want anyway) is for Tesla to make money, so that they can actually be around 5 years from now.
 
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Thu Jul 11, 2019 10:39 am

dragontamer5788 wrote:
No one really wants Toyota levels of efficiency. Toyota is a monster. The only thing people want (well, I want anyway) is for Tesla to make money, so that they can actually be around 5 years from now.

I think that's a fair assessment, I'm optimistic that it'll be sooner because of the lower costs in China and the much higher revenue that should bring from that asian market. But 5 years is not an unreasonable estimate either, could go either way.

I think it makes sense that progress will continue in terms of costs, it just wouldn't make sense for things to come to a halt all of a sudden - for the first in human history - especially considering how the market is reacting to this market disruption. VW, for example, is investing around $100 billion right now in transitioning to EV production, and Mercedes is throwing another $50 billion at the problem as well, this is not a passing fancy anymore, and this is just their first salvo.

Even the most laggard anti-EV major manufacturer in Europe, Daimler/Chrysler, has recently thrown major funds toward building a new factory, I don't know if they can keep up with the other companies but they're trying:

FCA investing $789 million in new assembly line to produce 80,000 electric Fiat 500s annually
https://electrek.co/2019/07/11/fca-asse ... -fiat-500/

These companies would not be taking such big risks if there wasn't allot of market and regulatory pressure on them to do so, the momentum has financial, political and national security force behind it, it's gonna happen.

They would not throw that much money at the problem without having realistic projections, I think it's impressive that these massive corporations are steering the titanic at such a level considering the extremely complex internal politics at play, some are adapting faster than others, but collectively there's a serious shift on that continent to compete with Tesla in the premium niche, and the rising threat from Korean manufacturers on the mainstream side of things.

It would be realistic to expect this to not affect mining operations or battery production, we already see LG, one of many companies, growing their operations FIVE fold for 2024, that's ridiculous growth projections, and we're only at the beginning of this trend.

I think the writing is on the wall, but it might just take longer for it to be seen in some places, other areas might see a sea change in lifestyle around it at the same time. We're already seeing it down here in California, every day I go to work I see a few Teslas fly by, heck we got uber rides from old Teslas and Bolts many times, that's not the case in my old hometown in West Virginia, but I have no doubt it's gonna happen ten years down the road in remote areas as well.

We can look back to the first automobiles and how rapidly that changed society, same arguments back then, 13 years later and there was no denying it anymore, progress always keeps coming.

https://www.businessinsider.com/5th-ave ... 913-2011-3
ImageImage
So there's no reason to expect this disruption to be any different from many others before it at this kind of financial and political momentum across the globe.

Just my two cents.
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Thu Jul 11, 2019 10:55 am

In 2001, the Segway was released to revolutionize pedestrian's walking behavior. Now, 18 years later... well... I guess some cops use a Segway. But no revolution has taken place.

99% of the time, revolutionary inventions disappear. The 1% of inventions that actually advance the world (ie: airplanes, computers, smartphones, and cars) are well remembered. But the vast, vast, vast majority of "revolutionary advances" simply die off. Its far safer to bet on failure. Something like a Segway, which has a niche in the Urban Police forces... is still a huge success compared to a lot of other inventions.

Its not that I am against EVs. Its that it is far, far more likely that they won't work as well as people expect. In particular, they have yet to be proven to be a money maker by any car-maker. Most car-makers are building compliance cars, while Tesla simply doesn't make money at all. That's not really the kind of market that I'd bet on. When the subsidies stop, the electric car designs seem to stop. Governments have pumped the industry full of money (see $7500 tax credit + state credits in USA or European emissions credits, etc. etc.). But its not enough to make sustainable businesses yet.

I'm not one to bet against progress. EVs are the future. But a number of design problems have to be addressed: in particular their very high capital costs. Tesla hasn't solve this problem yet (proof is in their constant losses). And no one else will want to jump into the suicide pit of money-losing until someone can prove that the business can profit.
 
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Thu Jul 11, 2019 11:32 am

The horse/automobile comparison is invalid. Horses take a very long time to manufacture, require long rest periods, are susceptible to disease, and are frequently written off as a total loss if damage occurs. On top of that, they are quite expensive to manufacture and maintain. The mass production of automobiles provided a much more convenient, low-cost option to the masses. You could theoretically maintain 24 hour uptime without performance loss, and you could buy a replacement with a blue collar wage. THAT is why the changeover happened so quickly.

EVs, by contrast, have several of the issues horses did when comparing to ICE vehicles. They are still quite expensive to purchase and manufacture, and they require long downtime during regular operation to charge, and their performance degrades as charge depletes (similar to horses). How is a more expensive, less-usable product going to upend the entire automobile market in less than 20 years?

The only way EVs generate that kind of 20th century disruption is if they solve these fundamental engineering problems. I know I'm generalizing, but many drivers will not accept those charge times without an ICE backup. And the initial cost is a huge barrier. Even if you find a used EV for ~$10,000, you're competing against a dozen $2,000 Honda Civics with 200k miles because they will still daily for 100k more miles with minimal fuss (and after that, you could probably still sell one for parts).

dragontamer5788 wrote:
The 1% of inventions that actually advance the world (ie: airplanes, computers, smartphones, and cars) are well remembered.
Note that dragontamer's examples here all provided revolutionary new capabilities over what came before. EVs are offering incremental changes over established technologies. Unless they can offer those improvements an an immediate cost advantage, it's going to be a long time before they reach a critical mass.
On second thought, let's not go to TechReport. Tis a silly place.
 
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Thu Jul 11, 2019 2:43 pm

dragontamer5788 wrote:
In 2001, the Segway was released to revolutionize pedestrian's walking behavior. Now, 18 years later... well... I guess some cops use a Segway. But no revolution has taken place.

Sure, but Segway was not at this disruption level, some reasons I can think of:

- It did not exhibit concrete signs of market disruption, was rather more of a niche of its own that didn't take off, it was pitched as a replacement for bikes and scooters and such, but no clear justification for what the self balancing feature brought to the table. Bikers were in it for the exercise and trail trips, scooter rides wanted to take long trips on the streets and highways - depending on model. Neither of these use cases fit the Segway well, it had practical applications in its own niche that also served as boundaries the product never grew out of. EVs are in many ways superior without question, and their current limitations - premium market pricing, rural charging infrastructure and servicing as examples - are not hard limits to overcome and apply to a small subset of its target global market, they are quickly getting addressed every day, one town after another down the list.

- It already had better alternatives that were popular outside of the US in the form of (e)scooters, (e)bikes and such. It didn't seem to offer a practical enough application of its tech to necessitate a wholesale replacement to similar solutions, ones that were not popular here but are now coming from abroad and taking over cities in the form of Bird, Lime etc. Actually Uber bought one of these companies and now you can select one on the same App that lets you get car sharing rides here.

- Segway's technology itself is actually parts of allot of modern e-bikes now, check out some of BMW, Yamaha and Honda's self balancing motorbikes, they're pretty cool and starting to come out.

Image

So in a sense we have Segway's technology entering the market indirectly, it just wont be the limited original form it was presented at.

- More importantly it did not tie into a worldwide movement toward this shift in the energy and transport market as a whole. The whole world is economically and politically pushing for this change. We got nations calling for a climate "emergency" and making this a national security initiative across the globe, we got nations moving to secure these future industries and develop the best wind and solar energy generation technologies to control the future job markets. EVs and batteries in general play a major role in these various initiatives and compliment each other strongly as a whole.

China is aiming to dominate the world's energy and transport market, and are pouring serious funds and initiatives toward this effort, trying to beat us and other major economies to these like they did with solar.

Europe is following suit as well, planning to ban gasoline vehicles in their cities as early as 2030. They're pushing their companies to catch up on EV technology and it all ties into the energy grid going green with solar, wind and storage, two of those Tesla are involved in already, one hopes they can grow those sides of their business down the road as each would be the size of the auto market or greater by expert projections.

So there really is no doubt at this point in time that this takes off, it's just a question of who will be on top. Could be Tesla, could be VW, could be BYD, Norway's massive sovereign wealth fund is betting on Tesla, Warren Buffet is betting on BYD, and so on.

We're at an early point in mainstream EV development and already we have products that can go 300 miles on a charge, charge in half an hour, perform like a Porche and save thousands per year on gasoline and maintenance. Where will we be in five years after battery costs go below $100/kWh, energy densities grow another 40 percent (8%/year average) and sell in the $30k sticker price bracket?

Early cars didn't have a problem outselling horses despite being initially slower and lacking in proper roads. EVs have it good compared to that, their challenges are much closer to overcome than lack of roads and gas stations was, and their advantages are too strong for many markets to ignore, market perception is not the same everywhere because the challenges don't apply everywhere either:

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/07/10/te ... -coverage/

I just saw this cool discussion between three known independent investors, it had allot of interesting points to make about market conditions, Tesla's approaching inclusion into the S&P 500, shortseller activity, Tesla's emphasis on growth relating to these dynamics and so on, I thought it was a fun watch:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xNDD3CHEsMI

So yeah, there are challenges, but also many advantages depending on location, so I don't think this trend can be ignored with trillions of dollars and extremely fierce competition between nations at stake.
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Thu Jul 11, 2019 2:48 pm

Did you just use the phrase "disruption level" and mean it? Your nerd credentials are hereby revoked.
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Fri Jul 12, 2019 8:36 am

Well, Ill throw a few more comments here. Lets say 20% of all the cars convert to electric from ICE....The big issue I see in america, is where is all that extra electricity going to come from. Our current power grid struggles in a lot of cities during the summer when everyone is running AC. Short of building tons of new nuclear power plants, its going to be a struggle to keep all these cars charged. Plus the other issue is all the battery waste these car batteries packs are going to cause when they wear out and have to be disposed of. Are we going to have piles of old battery packs piled up in the desert making a blight on the enviroment?
 
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Fri Jul 12, 2019 10:16 am

Starfalcon wrote:
Well, Ill throw a few more comments here. Lets say 20% of all the cars convert to electric from ICE....The big issue I see in america, is where is all that extra electricity going to come from. Our current power grid struggles in a lot of cities during the summer when everyone is running AC. Short of building tons of new nuclear power plants, its going to be a struggle to keep all these cars charged. Plus the other issue is all the battery waste these car batteries packs are going to cause when they wear out and have to be disposed of. Are we going to have piles of old battery packs piled up in the desert making a blight on the enviroment?


1. The electric grid struggles because the USA's electric workload is extremely variable. If we get smart-metering technology up, then electric vehicles can stabilize the grid by only drawing power when there is risk of over-generation, and turning off charging when there is risk of under-generation.

Graph from here: http://www.caiso.com/TodaysOutlook/Pages/default.aspx

Image

I took this graph from yesterday's California ISO information. You can see that yesterday's demand shrank to 16GW at approximately 9:00am, but grew to 32GW at 8pm. The difficulty of electricity generation in America is this doubling of energy demand each, and every day. You must turn off power-plants, and then turn them back on to compensate for this rampup. How can electric cars help? Well, with proper electronics you can draw electricity on off-hours. That balances the load far better.

I admit that this "smart grid" technology is still in its infant stages. But there's actually a huge benefit to batteries with regards to the electric grid. Batteries, even if they're in cars, can perform grid-stabilization duties. The issue is economics: we should pay people to do this behavior. Reduce their electric bills each month if they can promise a certain level of grid-stabilization through electric vehicles. The general population needs to be trained in this new technology. Standards need to be adopted. Etc. etc. We're looking at 5 to 10 years into the future before this "smart grid" technology stuff becomes common. But smart-grid is absolutely going to be a part of our future.

Plus the other issue is all the battery waste these car batteries packs are going to cause when they wear out and have to be disposed of


The other side-effect of mass-producing Lithium Ion batteries is that you can recycle them into utility-scale battery packs. A lithium Ion battery that only holds 50% or 40% charge and only outputs 40% current will be useless for a car, but hook up hundreds-of-thousands of them together and you now have a MW+ utility scale battery pack for... grid stabilization purposes.

Lead-acid batteries are being used for grid-stabilization operations. Utility companies don't care about the capacity/weight ratio at all. They just use the cheapest technology, and they want a lot of it. So lead-acid still wins today, because lead-acid is so cheap to manufacture. In the future, worn-out lithium ion batteries would serve a similar role.

----------

With that being said: people saying new Lithium Ion battery packs should be used in utility are crazy IMO. There are other, better, and cheaper technologies available for grid-scale electric storage. Lithium Ion batteries are expensive, and their main advantage is capacity/weight ratio. They're a bad technology for utility scale... all else considered. It only really makes sense to recycle them into utility scale packs IMO.
Last edited by dragontamer5788 on Fri Jul 12, 2019 10:21 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Fri Jul 12, 2019 10:20 am

I believe there are many instances where used Prius batteries are re-used for whole-house battery backup/storage.
 
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Fri Jul 12, 2019 12:02 pm

Some batteries do have a fair bit of capacity left after they're no longer able to handle the aggressive charge/discharge cycle of an EV, and get moved to specialty applications. The majority, AFAIK, are simply recycled, as the metals inside are reasonably valuable and reusable:

https://www.greencarreports.com/news/10 ... ttery-dies
https://www.greencarreports.com/news/10 ... -recycling
https://www.kbirecycling.com/
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