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Buy or Lease a new EV

Buy
14 (40%)
Lease
11 (31%)
Neither and spend all available funds buying delicious cheese. (But I'd still need a vehicle to haul the cheese)
10 (29%)
 
Total votes: 35
 
roncat
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Fri Aug 02, 2019 6:43 am

superjawes wrote:
wierdo wrote:
Ok folks, so lets just pretend cars can't explode. I don't wanna ruin that fantasy world.

Just don't type "car explosions" on Youtube lol:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0qisRbbnx5o
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vavOnSeoqyo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ith7OZD3h8o
Ok, buddy, let's just pretend Tesla's can't explode. Just don't type "Tesla Explosions" into Youtube lol:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AmbHpqWjMVE

By your own logic, this must be an epidemic.

Feel free to apologize for and agonize over every little snippet, to find an excuse about the nature of these many explosions...
It's science. Lots of things can "explode" without generating fire. Many of your "proofs" against ICE vehicles weren't fuel caused or related, but caused by something else (like an air tank). Air tank explosions are not exclusive to ICE vehicles. On top of that, adding external fire where it shouldn't be is a bad thing for gasoline and Lithium batteries. You can't ignore external risks for one and not the other.

a fraction of the real world captured in government statistics.
OOOOOhhhh really? So does that mean that only a fraction of EV fires are captured by government statistics? Does that mean that all EVs are rolling deathtraps, and we're not to take their safety statistics at face value?

wierdo wrote:
Anyway, any creative rebuttals to the explanation for the safety features listed in the video here as well?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bkayYiwrjyQ
Holy moving goalposts, Batman! We were talking about fires one second, and now we're talking about crash rating? Those are two different issues. Sure, it's great that Tesla are apparently making vehicles with good crash ratings, but that is a completely separate issue from fire and explosions!

Obviously the governments are wrong and their tests and statistics are bs, so the above safety features don't work, and last century's technology is timelessly perfect. I'm excited to learn about the reasons why.
Wait, I'm confused...now we have to trust government statistics? PICK A LANE!

Look what you made me do...I created a Glorious-style response to one of your posts. Happy? The crazy thing is, I do support EV development. And I'm an electrical engineer, so EVs are even better for my profession. But it's not magic. The technology is niche right now. It has flaws, risks, and dangers, and it is imperative that these problems are solved. Even if we can't solve all of them, we need to do the best we can to deliver the best version possible. That isn't accomplished by living in the clouds sniffing unicorn farts. It's accomplished by hard working engineers tackling real problems with real solutions. I'm glad you're excited for EVs. The market needs people excited for EVs to beta test them. Just please, stop pretending that EVs are issue-free. Stop making up problems for conventional vehicles to justify a "radical change" attitude. THOSE things do NOT help the market.



Absolutely not helping the market. I only watch some of the videos to compare them to the actual lab tests I see... there is some correlation, but not a whole lot. The videos lean more toward marketing than reality, unfortunately.

Crash-wise, the "star rating" for passenger safety of Tesla vehicles is mostly a nice side effect of them needing to design a battery pack/container that doesn't combust easily should a crash occur (or you run over some road debris). If battery technology became magically "damage safe" overnight, Tesla would have to start actually making vehicles much lighter to compete, and expend much more engineering resources on the crash-worthiness of a lighter vehicle.
 
Usacomp2k3
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Sat Aug 03, 2019 11:54 am

https://twitter.com/tesla/status/115767 ... 02401?s=21

BREAKING: All new Model S and Model X orders now come with ⚡ free ⚡ unlimited ⚡ Supercharging ⚡

This complicates the S vs 3 and X vs Y decisions.It makes sense to me to offer. It doesn’t cost them that much.
 
wierdo
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Sun Aug 04, 2019 12:15 pm

Moving on from the silly made up negatives - compiling a running list of why EVs shouldn't be taking off from this thread would be comical - onto the here and now, where some areas are catching on faster than others, just like phones and internet commerce - and the late adopters follow eventually anyway, so why bother lol.

Some guy was thinking outside the box and ended up replacing their Toyota Tundra with a Model X for their work, taking advantage of the new tech features to improve his work life. Also ended up replacing three cars with it, turning it into a work and family vehicle. And of course cut down his $50,000 fueling costs significantly:

Image
"Who Says a Work Truck CAN'T Be Electric? | Dude I Love (Or Hate) My New Ride!"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wxps8dkG65g

Guy is expecting to keep this vehicle for hundreds of thousands of miles more based on his experience.

Should be interesting to see a Tesla truck playing into this scenario in the future though, but it's always inspiring to see some forward thinking people are already getting resourceful and creative with their lives in view of current options. Respect!
Last edited by wierdo on Sun Aug 04, 2019 12:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Sun Aug 04, 2019 1:20 pm

wierdo wrote:
Moving on from the silly made up negatives - compiling a running list of why EVs shouldn't be taking off from this thread would be comical

No more comical than you making up silly reasons why Tesla isn't in trouble.

I really DO hope that EVs become practical and affordable for a large percentage of the population. But wishful thinking alone won't make it happen; there are still significant logistical issues which must be overcome, and (in Tesla's case specifically) Elon seems to be flailing about wildly without a sustainable plan for how to transition from a boutique luxury brand to a profitable mass-market automaker.
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wierdo
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Mon Aug 05, 2019 10:56 am

just brew it! wrote:
wierdo wrote:
Moving on from the silly made up negatives - compiling a running list of why EVs shouldn't be taking off from this thread would be comical

No more comical than you making up silly reasons why Tesla isn't in trouble.

I really DO hope that EVs become practical and affordable for a large percentage of the population. But wishful thinking alone won't make it happen; there are still significant logistical issues which must be overcome, and (in Tesla's case specifically) Elon seems to be flailing about wildly without a sustainable plan for how to transition from a boutique luxury brand to a profitable mass-market automaker.

I'm sure they are in big trouble, growing exponentially while others are mostly shrinking, a reverse Kodak moment in the works for sure.

And still the same 10 year old talking points... the world moved on and still the same 10 year old talking point. Tesla is dominating sales charts around the world, penetrating the Chinese market like no other, a massive factory on the way as we speak, and experts assert they're seven years ahead of the competition. And the same talking points from 10 years ago, forever stuck in 2010.

Who knew startups were so hard to predict with mature company models! If it was that easy then there would not be such a thing as disruption, the legacy companies would just do it themselves.

You think their challenges are more difficult to tackle than those of traditional auto? Selling products that are about to become obsolete, scrambling to figure out how to survive the new market trend, failing to offer a compelling EV product like Tesla does despite all the financial resources at their disposal?

Every "Tesla killer" they came out with so far was a joke, heck, the fact that the media constantly uses the word "Tesla Killer" to describe upcoming competition should tell you something, if they need a Tesla killer then Tesla is the standard, the benchmark. Even the corporate media, with its inherent bias for ad sponsors, implicitly admits there's a serious threat to the legacies. You don't need a killer if you're not ahead.

Kinda beating a dead horse here, lets just say you're pessimistic about Tesla and I'm optimistic. In a few years the issue will be moot.
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dragontamer5788
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Mon Aug 05, 2019 11:13 am

wierdo wrote:
I'm sure they are in big trouble, growing exponentially while others are mostly shrinking


We both can agree on one thing: Tesla is absolutely growing exponentially. But it seems as if you and I disagree about the direction.

Image

Note that cumulative losses for 2019 are $1.1 Billion. At the current rate, Tesla will lose $2.2 Billion this year, matching up nicely with the log-scale "exponential" plot. Remember: profits ignore CapEx and other "investments".

Who knew startups were so hard to predict with mature company models


Dude, I literally predicted the number of sales as well as their "hundreds of millions of dollars of losses". Its not very difficult if you watch the data. As I stated before: companies can sustain $billions of losses for extended periods of time. The hard part of prediction is predicting the precise moment of collapse, but I've placed my bets on 2022 (as long as Elon Musk fails to change anything). Obviously, Elon Musk can turn things around in 3 years and save the company, but I'm fully convinced that the man is an idiot and unable to do so. He's had plenty of opportunities to prevent other disasters from ailing this company, and has met every single challenge with... well... you can see how he handles things by looking at the graph above. He spends money and pretends it won't cause any issues.

But enough about Q2, that's in the past now. What about Q3? Any predictions here? The US tax credit has halfed again to $1,875, Tesla is continuously cutting prices on its vehicles and they no longer have "10,000 vehicles on a boat" to prop up their cashflow and confuse investors. I'm expecting a loss of hundreds-of-millions of dollars, as well as negative cash flow this upcoming quarter. I don't see any way for Tesla to have a record-breaking Q3 (they only reached the record in Q2 because they held back "10,000 vehicles on a boat" to create the illusion of increased deliveries). Case in point: Q2 2019 produced 87,048 vehicles but delivered 95,200 vehicles: that's unsustainable obviously. You can't sell more vehicles than you make every quarter.
 
superjawes
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Mon Aug 05, 2019 11:47 am

wierdo wrote:
I'm sure they are in big trouble, growing exponentially while others are mostly shrinking, a reverse Kodak moment in the works for sure.
Massive growth in size, but the profits aren't following. Any hiccup in sales and the house of cards will fall.

wierdo wrote:
Who knew startups were so hard to predict with mature company models! If it was that easy then there would not be such a thing as disruption, the legacy companies would just do it themselves.
Tesla isn't a startup anymore. They've been producing EVs for more than 10 years. It's time for them to mature, and the question is: "Are they?"

wierdo wrote:
You think their challenges are more difficult to tackle than those of traditional auto? Selling products that are about to become obsolete, scrambling to figure out how to survive the new market trend, failing to offer a compelling EV product like Tesla does despite all the financial resources at their disposal?
ICE vehicles are not even close to being obsolete. They have longer range, faster fill up times, and the chassis they're built on are fine. Plus, mature auto companies are building their hybrid and electric powertrains into traditional chassis whenever possible to reduce overall complexity (makes it cheaper to design and produce).

Also, failing to offer compelling products? So I'm imagining the Volt and Bolt enthusiasts? The Prius isn't a popular car? The Leaf doesn't exist? This thread was started by someone buying a Tesla Kona? Sure, Tesla might be leading, but other names are entering the conversation...also, don't ignore ICE vehicles in the discussion. Those are still selling well, and companies like Ford and GM aren't cancelling their "traditional" compact and midsize car production to make EVs. They're doing it to make more crossovers, because that part of the market is growing, and those vehicles have higher profit margins.

wierdo wrote:
Kinda beating a dead horse here, lets just say you're pessimistic and I'm optimistic about Tesla. In a few years the issue will be moot.
Moot because Tesla will be bankrupt? They aren't the only EV manufacturer, and bigger companies have the advantage of larger production capabilities and financials. Companies like Ford, GM, and Toyota can subsidize their own EV capital needs from their other revenue streams. Reminder, Tesla are operating at a loss, which means they require outside financing for ongoing operations. That's always a risky spot to be in, and they've been making a semi-mainstream vehicle (the Model S) since 2012. Now they've been producing a real mainstream vehicle (Model 3) for two years, but they still have no net profit to show for it.

"Traditional" auto manufacturers aren't stupid. If EVs were going to sell well, they'd be making them...and they ARE making EVs. But they keep selling ICE vehicles because people are still buying them. By the millions.
On second thought, let's not go to TechReport. Tis a silly place.
 
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Mon Aug 05, 2019 11:51 am

I'm OK with electric motors on a car. But I think batteries and charging stations are too environmentally costly. I support using fuel cells for primary power and regenerating braking with some battery for that purpose. The infrastructure build out necessary for charging all-battery electric cars will be stunning.
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superjawes
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Mon Aug 05, 2019 12:15 pm

Mr Bill wrote:
I'm OK with electric motors on a car. But I think batteries and charging stations are too environmentally costly. I support using fuel cells for primary power and regenerating braking with some battery for that purpose. The infrastructure build out necessary for charging all-battery electric cars will be stunning.
You talking Hydrogen fuel cells? Because generating hydrogen is hard (big reason why it hasn't taken off).

For me, I don't think ICE vehicles are the problem, but it's the overall culture/infrastructure. In short, too many daily drivers and not enough public transit. The electric grid issue pops up because we're assuming 1:1 ICE to electric replacement. Even with diesel buses, getting 20 people to give up their daily cars would vastly reduce environmental impact without spiking the electric grid. As bonuses, roads (should) be more open for the vehicles that still need to use them, and they will receive less wear. And you have multiple public transit options if you include trolleys and rail.

Of course, building and utilizing public transit like this has its own challenges (culturally and technically), but if we're just talking per-person environmental impact, it seems like the best path forward.
On second thought, let's not go to TechReport. Tis a silly place.
 
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Mon Aug 05, 2019 12:20 pm

superjawes wrote:
You talking Hydrogen fuel cells? Because generating hydrogen is hard (big reason why it hasn't taken off).

And, if derived from water, at a maximum theoretical energy efficiency of 51%

https://techreport.com/forums/viewtopic ... 92#p720192
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Mon Aug 05, 2019 12:37 pm

superjawes wrote:
Mr Bill wrote:
I'm OK with electric motors on a car. But I think batteries and charging stations are too environmentally costly. I support using fuel cells for primary power and regenerating braking with some battery for that purpose. The infrastructure build out necessary for charging all-battery electric cars will be stunning.
You talking Hydrogen fuel cells? Because generating hydrogen is hard (big reason why it hasn't taken off).

For me, I don't think ICE vehicles are the problem, but it's the overall culture/infrastructure. In short, too many daily drivers and not enough public transit. The electric grid issue pops up because we're assuming 1:1 ICE to electric replacement. Even with diesel buses, getting 20 people to give up their daily cars would vastly reduce environmental impact without spiking the electric grid. As bonuses, roads (should) be more open for the vehicles that still need to use them, and they will receive less wear. And you have multiple public transit options if you include trolleys and rail.

Of course, building and utilizing public transit like this has its own challenges (culturally and technically), but if we're just talking per-person environmental impact, it seems like the best path forward.


I think the "public transit vs private cars" dichotomy is broken. The solution is to use both. Get people into the habit of using busses by having central points with cheap parking lots on the outskirts of cities, and then have those busses drive people to their work location.

1. City Outskirts are typically suburbia, with low traffic and low density. A central meeting location is necessary to have the busses efficient at all.
2. Traffic inside of the city improves greatly with bus-based traffic. Getting 10 cars off the road for 10-people on one bus will make a meaningful difference in traffic.
3. Rail / subway is best, but extremely expensive. US Cities are surprisingly poor, especially in middle America. Figuring out cheap and sustainable is the #1 goal.
4. Idling on a road because of traffic is surely the cause of a huge amount of unnecessary pollution. ICE cars are least efficient in those conditions, but are highly efficient (maybe 30MPG) on highways.
5. Cars working together to gather at a central spot outside of the city encourages carpooling and overall efficiency.

Americans won't give up their car. But maybe we can get them to use busses anyway.
 
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Mon Aug 05, 2019 1:33 pm

dragontamer5788 wrote:
I think the "public transit vs private cars" dichotomy is broken. The solution is to use both. Get people into the habit of using busses by having central points with cheap parking lots on the outskirts of cities, and then have those busses drive people to their work location.

1. City Outskirts are typically suburbia, with low traffic and low density. A central meeting location is necessary to have the busses efficient at all.
2. Traffic inside of the city improves greatly with bus-based traffic. Getting 10 cars off the road for 10-people on one bus will make a meaningful difference in traffic.
3. Rail / subway is best, but extremely expensive. US Cities are surprisingly poor, especially in middle America. Figuring out cheap and sustainable is the #1 goal.
4. Idling on a road because of traffic is surely the cause of a huge amount of unnecessary pollution. ICE cars are least efficient in those conditions, but are highly efficient (maybe 30MPG) on highways.
5. Cars working together to gather at a central spot outside of the city encourages carpooling and overall efficiency.

Americans won't give up their car. But maybe we can get them to use busses anyway.
To be clear, I'm not making it a "versus" scenario. I mainly meant that converting the "core" of most peoples' daily commute yields the best results for everyone. Heck, if most Americans were using public transit, they could probably own sports cars and have a net positive impact on emissions. It's the cumulative effect of millions of cars operating for 1-3 hours per day that creates the issue, even if those cars have low emissions. Replacing all those vehicles with EVs would have an apparent positive impact, but it would likely tax the electrical grid immensely (creating new and/or different problems).

So I basically agree with all of your points except #3. Cities are the biggest drivers of the US economy. Now, getting the revenue from metro residents who would benefit from it is another story. It's easier for a suburbanite to "do nothing" and continue his/her vehicle commute than it is to have them change. Even if the outcome is less daily effort in commuting and lower costs.
On second thought, let's not go to TechReport. Tis a silly place.
 
roncat
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Mon Aug 05, 2019 1:52 pm

superjawes wrote:
Mr Bill wrote:
I'm OK with electric motors on a car. But I think batteries and charging stations are too environmentally costly. I support using fuel cells for primary power and regenerating braking with some battery for that purpose. The infrastructure build out necessary for charging all-battery electric cars will be stunning.
You talking Hydrogen fuel cells? Because generating hydrogen is hard (big reason why it hasn't taken off).

For me, I don't think ICE vehicles are the problem, but it's the overall culture/infrastructure. In short, too many daily drivers and not enough public transit. The electric grid issue pops up because we're assuming 1:1 ICE to electric replacement. Even with diesel buses, getting 20 people to give up their daily cars would vastly reduce environmental impact without spiking the electric grid. As bonuses, roads (should) be more open for the vehicles that still need to use them, and they will receive less wear. And you have multiple public transit options if you include trolleys and rail.

Of course, building and utilizing public transit like this has its own challenges (culturally and technically), but if we're just talking per-person environmental impact, it seems like the best path forward.


"I don't think ICE vehicles are the problem"

Hmmm... good point. Electric vs ICE is just two different kinds of horses, not like the jump from horses to cars. Horses that just eat different hay. Same size, same roads, etc.
 
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Mon Aug 05, 2019 4:48 pm

superjawes wrote:
Massive growth in size, but the profits aren't following. Any hiccup in sales and the house of cards will fall.

You pursue growth or pursue profits, not both at the same time, that would be bad focus. Very bad management advice, making profit right now means settling for current size when the competition is in disarray, you resign yourself to niche player status. Strike while the iron is hot, and it's hot as it can be right now, baby.

superjawes wrote:
Tesla isn't a startup anymore. They've been producing EVs for more than 10 years. It's time for them to mature, and the question is: "Are they?"

Yes they are a startup, Tesla will stop becoming a startup when their growth reaches stable low single digits like the rest of the legacy manufacturers had ten years ago - now these dinosaurs are suffering negative growth in many areas.

Right now Tesla keeps exponentially growing in size, only a fool would put the brakes on that while there's so much left on the table. And no they are not running out of money any time soon, they got trillion dollar investment firms backing them and more than willing to play the long-term game. Norway's six billion dollar wealth fund, giant investment firms like Bailie Gifford, etc, many willing backers, so don't expect them to run out of funds any time soon, sorry.

I'll post a link about it later, it deserves its own post.

superjawes wrote:
ICE vehicles are not even close to being obsolete.

They are technologically obsolete, in the sense that they can get the job done, like horses could early on, but and they are going to be obsolete in a few years, they'll flood the used car market, it will be a great buyer's market.

They are unreliable, inefficient, and poison the streets they operate in, a leading cause of illnesses and death. There was no real alternative before so we lived with the negatives, but today we have modern solutions to the problem, and people are more educated and aware about these concerns - barring flyover states and such, but who cares about those, they don't lead, they always follow.

In a few years you will be finding these ICE clunkers in the least developed parts of the country, it will become a gauge of progress, in the vein of the national highway system and what that did to the horse carriage.

Plus, mature auto companies are building their hybrid and electric powertrains into traditional chassis whenever possible to reduce overall complexity (makes it cheaper to design and produce).

Which is why their lazy un-optimized attempts so far all laughably suck. Not to mention their disadvantages outside of just the ICE-style compliance cars they're building.

superjawes wrote:
Also, failing to offer compelling products? So I'm imagining the Volt and Bolt enthusiasts? The Prius isn't a popular car? The Leaf doesn't exist? This thread was started by someone buying a Tesla Kona? Sure, Tesla might be leading, but other names are entering the conversation...

Let see... the Bolt is a budget car sold at entry level Model 3 prices, and made in small compliance level quantities. It's not a bad car, but the bar is set higher.

The Leaf lacks battery thermal management, it's a bad design imho, they cut too many corners so their batteries don't last as long as they should, which is not only bad for the customer, but wasteful, make a solid battery system instead of banking on selling replacements.

Prius was good ten years ago, Model 3 actually swallowed that market, their sales tanked, people no longer accept half solutions.

Kona is decent, I prefer it over the Bolt, but again sold at compliance level quantities, they cannot hope to satisfy demand nor achieve cost savings if they drag their feet like that.

superjawes wrote:
also, don't ignore ICE vehicles in the discussion. Those are still selling well, and companies like Ford and GM aren't cancelling their "traditional" compact and midsize car production to make EVs. They're doing it to make more crossovers, because that part of the market is growing, and those vehicles have higher profit margins.

Indeed they are not, they're closing shop altogether in the states:

https://www.autoblog.com/2018/04/25/for ... us-active/
https://techcrunch.com/2018/04/25/ford- ... us-active/

Ford sees 90 percent of its North America portfolio in trucks, utilities and commercial vehicles. Citing a reduction in consumer demand and product profitability, Ford is in turn not investing in the next generation of sedans. The Taurus is no more

Translation: "We're losing the sedan market to EVs, cause the markets for sedans and EVs are strongly correlated. We'll just retreat to high margin trucks where the chicken tax reduces our competition. I'm sure EVs wont reach us there."

superjawes wrote:
They aren't the only EV manufacturer, and bigger companies have the advantage of larger production capabilities and financials.

Those companies are dragged down by their own dead weight, they got a hundred factories making engines and drive trains for a dying technology, not tranferrable technology. It will take them billions and billions of losses to get out of their own hole. How do you propose these companies escape the planetary gravity of their sunken assets and just compete without any experience in EV manufacturing not software expertise?

Those investments need to get paid off, those new EV factories need to be built, those battery supplies have to be secured, those battery costs have to be managed.

Good luck, I wont hold my breath. Some may make it, many wont.

superjawes wrote:
"Traditional" auto manufacturers aren't stupid. If EVs were going to sell well, they'd be making them...

They are not stupid, they are stuck. They have to choose between delaying the inevitable or sinking billions into catching up. I don't think many will make it, at best they may become niche brands like Harley's loud but under-powered bikes.
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Mon Aug 05, 2019 4:49 pm

Heavy hitters showing their solid backing:
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-tsla-ma ... e-gifford/

“In California, arguably a leading indicator for the adoption of new technologies, EVs comprised almost 8% of new vehicle sales last year. The astonishing fact that the Tesla Model 3 was the best-selling car in the US by revenue based on the last four quarters, coming in ahead of the Toyota Camry, perhaps marks a major milestone on the coming transformation of the car industry and the end of our reliance on a major finite resource,” Baillie Gifford wrote.

The UK-headquartered firm has remained an ardent supporter of Tesla despite the trademark volatility displayed the electric car maker’s stock. Earlier this year, Nick Thomas, a partner at Baillie Gifford, stated that the fund would be willing to invest more into the electric car maker if needed. “If he (Elon Musk) needs more capital we would be willing to back him,” he said.

Part of the reason behind Baillie Gifford’s steadfast support for Tesla could lie in the fact that the fund specializes in long-term investment strategies. The firm focuses on what it believes are industry-transforming products and services, and generally does not expect a quick return on its investments. This strategy has paid off well for Baillie Gifford, as it was able to hold significant stakes in companies that have otherwise displayed rapid growth over the years, including Amazon, Netflix, and Facebook. This strategy also allowed the firm to invest in Alibaba before it became a $423-billion e-commerce behemoth, as well as Spotify before it rose to become a $32 billion music streaming service with over two hundred million users worldwide
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Mon Aug 05, 2019 6:33 pm

wierdo wrote:
Heavy hitters showing their solid backing:
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-tsla-ma ... e-gifford/

Hmm... an article by one of Tesla's biggest investors, on what amounts to an Elon Musk fan site. Is that an echo ... echo ... echo I hear?
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Mon Aug 05, 2019 6:43 pm

superjawes wrote:
dragontamer5788 wrote:
I think the "public transit vs private cars" dichotomy is broken. The solution is to use both. Get people into the habit of using busses by having central points with cheap parking lots on the outskirts of cities, and then have those busses drive people to their work location.

1. City Outskirts are typically suburbia, with low traffic and low density. A central meeting location is necessary to have the busses efficient at all.
2. Traffic inside of the city improves greatly with bus-based traffic. Getting 10 cars off the road for 10-people on one bus will make a meaningful difference in traffic.
3. Rail / subway is best, but extremely expensive. US Cities are surprisingly poor, especially in middle America. Figuring out cheap and sustainable is the #1 goal.
4. Idling on a road because of traffic is surely the cause of a huge amount of unnecessary pollution. ICE cars are least efficient in those conditions, but are highly efficient (maybe 30MPG) on highways.
5. Cars working together to gather at a central spot outside of the city encourages carpooling and overall efficiency.

Americans won't give up their car. But maybe we can get them to use busses anyway.
To be clear, I'm not making it a "versus" scenario. I mainly meant that converting the "core" of most peoples' daily commute yields the best results for everyone. Heck, if most Americans were using public transit, they could probably own sports cars and have a net positive impact on emissions. It's the cumulative effect of millions of cars operating for 1-3 hours per day that creates the issue, even if those cars have low emissions. Replacing all those vehicles with EVs would have an apparent positive impact, but it would likely tax the electrical grid immensely (creating new and/or different problems).

So I basically agree with all of your points except #3. Cities are the biggest drivers of the US economy. Now, getting the revenue from metro residents who would benefit from it is another story. It's easier for a suburbanite to "do nothing" and continue his/her vehicle commute than it is to have them change. Even if the outcome is less daily effort in commuting and lower costs.


A parking tax, combined with cheap busses would probably get the job done. Make parking free in the centralized bus stations and make parking expensive inside of the city. Let people continue to drive just have them pay higher and higher for the privilege.
 
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Mon Aug 05, 2019 7:57 pm

wierdo wrote:
They are technologically obsolete, in the sense that they can get the job done, like horses could early on, but and they are going to be obsolete in a few years, they'll flood the used car market, it will be a great buyer's market.
We've been over this. Horses were being replaced by something more functional. EVs are less functional than traditional vehicles. And no, they WON'T "flood" the used car market. ~40 million used vehicles are sold in the US every year with a new vehicle volume in the 17 million range. EVs are at what? A few hundred thousand on the best selling model? That's a drop in the bucket.

wierdo wrote:
They are unreliable, inefficient, and poison the streets they operate in, a leading cause of illnesses and death.
In order nope, generally nope (depends on the model), and [citation needed]. On that last one, yes, zero emissions is better, but modern ICE vehicles are very good assuming EPA and equivalent regulations are in place. You're being extremely hyperbolic here.

wierdo wrote:
There was no real alternative before so we lived with the negatives, but today we have modern solutions to the problem, and people are more educated and aware about these concerns - barring flyover states and such, but who cares about those, they don't lead, they always follow.
As a child of a flyover state...I choose to be polite. As a student of science, I refer you to the public transit discussion, as we considered the negatives associated with EVs (that you ignore).

wierdo wrote:
superjawes wrote:
also, don't ignore ICE vehicles in the discussion. Those are still selling well, and companies like Ford and GM aren't cancelling their "traditional" compact and midsize car production to make EVs. They're doing it to make more crossovers, because that part of the market is growing, and those vehicles have higher profit margins.

Indeed they are not, they're closing shop altogether in the states:

https://www.autoblog.com/2018/04/25/for ... us-active/
https://techcrunch.com/2018/04/25/ford- ... us-active/

Ford sees 90 percent of its North America portfolio in trucks, utilities and commercial vehicles. Citing a reduction in consumer demand and product profitability, Ford is in turn not investing in the next generation of sedans. The Taurus is no more

Translation: "We're losing the sedan market to EVs, cause the markets for sedans and EVs are strongly correlated. We'll just retreat to high margin trucks where the chicken tax reduces our competition. I'm sure EVs wont reach us there."
Check out the top 10 best-selling vehicles in 2018.

1. Ford F-Series - 909,330
2. Chevrolet Silverado - 585,581
3. Dodge Ram - 536, 980
4, Toyota Rav4 - 427,170
5. Nissan Rogue/Rogue Sport - 412,110
6. Honda CR-V - 397,013
7. Toyota Camry - 343,439
8. Chevrolet Equinox - 332,618
9. Honda Civic - 325,760
10. Toyota Corolla - 303,732

Notice anything curious? Like how there are only 3 "cars" on that list? It's not the EVs, stupid! It looks like Tesla sold 21,225 model 3s in June. Assuming they keep that track for 12 months (they haven't), they would not crack the top 10. And that's the BEST selling EV. More likely (and what I've been saying) is that the volume and growth are in crossovers/small SUVs. Oh will you look at that. There are four of those on 2018's best selling list. Not to mention the profit margins on pickups being pretty good, and there are three models topping the list. The death of the ICE sedan is not the result of an EV boon...it's actually not a death, either. Toyota rocking two spots (and Honda a third) ain't bad.

wierdo wrote:
Those companies are dragged down by their own dead weight, they got a hundred factories making engines and drive trains for a dying technology, not tranferrable technology. It will take them billions and billions of losses to get out of their own hole. How do you propose these companies escape the planetary gravity of their sunken assets and just compete without any experience in EV manufacturing not software expertise?
The death of the ICE has been greatly exaggerated (by you).
On second thought, let's not go to TechReport. Tis a silly place.
 
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Mon Aug 05, 2019 8:30 pm

just brew it! wrote:
wierdo wrote:
Heavy hitters showing their solid backing:
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-tsla-ma ... e-gifford/

Hmm... an article by one of Tesla's biggest investors, on what amounts to an Elon Musk fan site. Is that an echo ... echo ... echo I hear?


Do I hear a small towner putting his fingers in his ears and going lalala? The information is there, an article quoting another, it's not my problem if you can't read.

Here's the quoted link to make it easier:
https://investegate.co.uk/baillie-giffo ... 00048090H/
“...so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat.”Theodore Roosevelt
 
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Mon Aug 05, 2019 9:44 pm

wierdo wrote:
just brew it! wrote:
wierdo wrote:
Heavy hitters showing their solid backing:
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-tsla-ma ... e-gifford/

Hmm... an article by one of Tesla's biggest investors, on what amounts to an Elon Musk fan site. Is that an echo ... echo ... echo I hear?

Do I hear a small towner putting his fingers in his ears and going lalala? The information is there, an article quoting another, it's not my problem if you can't read.

Here's the quoted link to make it easier:
https://investegate.co.uk/baillie-giffo ... 00048090H/

Err... that's the investor's own annual financial report. Of course it is going to support what the Teslerati article says, given that the article is mostly quotes. :roll:

They wouldn't be big investors if they weren't already big believers. Your whole argument is circular.
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Mon Aug 05, 2019 9:57 pm

superjawes wrote:
Horses were being replaced by something more functional. EVs are less functional than traditional vehicles.

According to you. To us in the city the EV is vastly superior, it's not even a competition. multiple times the mileage, no smog in highly concentrated population centers, quiet, can smoke almost any ICE clunker at the stop light, has more modern high-tech features, has more storage space compared to a similar sized dinomobile, less maintenance, longer lasting, the list goes on.

A car without a highway is not ideal, that's why small towns still used horse carriages before the national highway system. For the same reason this is why the clunky old ICE technology is still popular in the middle of nowhere, they lacked highways and gas stations in the past, today they lack basic modern charging infrastructure for EVs. That's temporary, they can't afford to lose more jobs.

superjawes wrote:
In order nope, generally nope (depends on the model), and [citation needed]. On that last one, yes, zero emissions is better, but modern ICE vehicles are very good assuming EPA and equivalent regulations are in place. You're being extremely hyperbolic here.

Yep, yep, and yep, electric machinery will always have an advantage over equivalent combustion machinery, we just can't replace all of them because some use cases make power cables an impractical solution. Batteries are starting to eat into that, so that may change as well, tool by tool.

Do you also need a citation for smoking causing cancer? How ridiculous, it's common sense, even if thirty years ago big Tobacco spent a ton of money manipulating the public. Smog is much worse than smoking, and we already banned those in bars and restaurants, justify to me how in your world smog is not bad for your health, this should be quite entertaining.

There are more than 70,000 scientific papers to demonstrate that air pollution is affecting our health.”


https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... bal-review?

Thousands in London alone suffer premature death directly linked to smog, that's why they're banning them in city centers now, their taxi fleets are going electric, and the plan is to ban them nationwide by 2030-2040 across Europe. You will not be able to sell an ICE vehicle period, it's gonna be a sunk investment.

superjawes wrote:
As a child of a flyover state...I choose to be polite. As a student of science, I refer you to the public transit discussion, as we considered the negatives associated with EVs (that you ignore).

Hailing originally from West Virginia I just tell it like it is, a culture of anti-intellectualism.
Why do something better when it's been working fine for daddy? Trying something new, how uppity!
Why be a doctor when you can earn the same money as a plumber, right?
Don't get me wrong, good people that like to keep things simple in life, I can respect that, it'll be great go back to live that life when I retire. But sometimes that really gets in the way of progress, place was going nowhere, circling the drain.
But I digress.

As for public transportation, I agree, it can be a good part of the solution. But see, EVs have a place in this too! Major cities are electrifying buses as we speak.

In a similar fashion, Taxi companies in Ohio, of all places, are converting their fleets to Model 3s. Uber rides are starting to become more and more electrified on the west coast, things are changing.

EVs will come in all shapes and sizes and solve problems in different ways depending on need, if it's in public transport, even better!

superjawes wrote:
Notice anything curious? Like how there are only 3 "cars" on that list? It's not the EVs, stupid!

Trucks are a popular rural status symbol yes, and? You do realize this "compensation truck for lugging a six pack" phenomenon is not global, right? We're one of the few countries where this happens, it's purely tied to a combination of backwards macho culture and taxpayer subsidized gasoline that's cheaper than it should be.

That last safe place is not gonna save Ford, even if they decide to abandon the global market and just hole themselves up in the rust belt. And this market will go the way of EVs eventually as well, starting with truck fleet operators that will welcome the massive TCO benefits for their businesses.

Back to normal cars, notice how many the Camry is selling, that's a crazy high number, it's impressive to see an EV compete with that number, isn't it. And the sales numbers continue to experience high double digit growth every year, unlike almost every other car manufacturer that's dropping in sales in a lagging ICE market.

superjawes wrote:
The death of the ICE has been greatly exaggerated (by you).

They will survive in the least developed parts of the world, so I'm being quite realistic. They're not gonna just go poof tomorrow, the companies will simply have trouble selling them more and more, and spend more and more on cleaning up their emissions damage to the point of impracticality.

You can't sell a car without a gas station, and you can't sell EVs without the facilities and education, those will take longer to find their way outside bigger population zones, but eventually it'll happen.

Maybe your town wont have EVs for 20 years. Doesn't mean the rest of the world will wait, progress has no problem passing the laggards by, they can get on the midnight shuttle.

I've put my bet down, you can have your bet as well, we'll see in ten years if the world stops turning.
“...so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat.”Theodore Roosevelt
 
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Mon Aug 05, 2019 10:08 pm

just brew it! wrote:
They wouldn't be big investors if they weren't already big believers. Your whole argument is circular.


Long-term investors with trillions of dollars behind them, making sure this investment of theirs will be a success, just like they did with Amazon, Facebook, Alibaba, Spotify, the list of their war medals goes on. Clear enough for ya?

They're playing the long game, they'll keep the shorts in a nice tight squeeze until they tap out, progress will not be hindered by such small time dingle-berries.

Don't bet on Tesla's exponential growth to stop any time soon, it's a ticking bomb for the legacy autos, they don't have much time before Tesla forces the market into the inevitable EV disruption. Not a question of how, it's when. The market is betting 2025, be on the progress bus or get run over, your call, progress don't care.
“...so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat.”Theodore Roosevelt
 
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Tue Aug 06, 2019 9:30 am

superjawes wrote:
wierdo wrote:
They are technologically obsolete, in the sense that they can get the job done, like horses could early on, but and they are going to be obsolete in a few years, they'll flood the used car market, it will be a great buyer's market.
We've been over this.


Wierdo is taking a victory lap while Tesla has lost $1.1 Billion this year alone. The dude is completely devoid from reality.

There's a reason why I've succumbed to mocking him as a cult-member. He completely ignores the reality of the numbers. There's a big difference between Tesla fanboy and Tesla cult-member, wierdo falls squarely into the "cult" category. I've hit him with the same argument for 5 pages straight, and he just ignores it and posts blogposts from around the internet, probably hoping that we'd forget the earlier points (or something). He never actually addresses points, so don't expect a real discussion from him.

Its pretty easy to see why cult-members appear. Tesla bans serious discussion on their forums and curtails arguments very strongly. The tradition extends into the Tesla-sphere: their various subreddits, electrek, insideevs, etc. etc. They all appear to be engaging in focused marketing attempts, as well as SEO to get their argument to the top of search engines. Their sentiment is further buoyed by near-zero interest rate policies, cheap money, which causes investors to pile money into many unprofitable businesses. (Uber, Lyft, MoviePass, etc. etc.). Tesla isn't as bad as some of these other companies, but its still unprofitable.

The biggest problem is the number of years it takes for a company to actually go bankrupt. I mean, we all have seen it with AMD: how the company can sustain a decade of losses but still remain in business. The Tesla cult members see "survival" as if its an indicator of quality, without actually looking at the debt load or other long-term sustainability numbers. A normal company would use that time to reform itself: choose key projects (ex: AMD Zen) to rebirth itself. To shrink gracefully and figure out a sustainable model. Its difficult work, but many companies have taken that path successfully.

Elon Musk however, ignores reality and charges forward. And his army of Cult members follow.

---------

Fortunately for me, Q3 2019 numbers are projected to be absolutely awful. I'm curious where wierdo will go when Q3 yearly and quarterly cash flow numbers are negative.
Last edited by dragontamer5788 on Tue Aug 06, 2019 9:41 am, edited 2 times in total.
 
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Tue Aug 06, 2019 9:38 am

dragontamer5788 wrote:
Wierdo is taking a victory lap while Tesla has lost $1.1 Billion this year alone. The dude is completely devoid from reality.

Or is Elon using an alias.
What we have today is way too much pluribus and not enough unum.
 
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Tue Aug 06, 2019 9:49 am

wierdo wrote:
Don't bet on Tesla's exponential growth to stop any time soon


That be exponential growth in revenue. But sure, I'll take that bet against you. I'm going to call Q3 2019 as the end of Tesla's exponential growth of revenue on a YoY basis.

Q1 and Q2 2019 have already ended Tesla's "growth story" on a quarterly basis. So its a relatively simple call to make. Q3 2018 had $6.8 billion in revenue. How much do you think Q3 2019 will have?

Hint: Q2 2019 had $6.35 Billion in Revenue, on a record quarter helped by 10,000 "cars on a boat" being held over from Q1. There are no more "cars on a boat" to artificially increase revenue anymore. General recession indicators are beginning to fire. Trade war and anti-Chinese sentiment during a time of Tesla Chinese expansion. Declining European sales as BMW releases solid EVs to Europe. The halvening of the US tax credit. A collapse of the emission-credit market in Europe.

The only thing Tesla has to look forward to is Canada's tax credits for Q3 2019.

---------

TL;DR: Tesla's growth story stopped about 6 months ago on a quarterly basis. 3 months from now, when the Q3 numbers come in, Tesla will have failed to grow on a yearly basis. That's how stagnation happens: one month at a time. Tesla can easily prove me wrong by "exponentially" growing beyond the $6.8 Billion in Revenue it made in Q3 2018.
 
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Tue Aug 06, 2019 9:52 am

dragontamer5788 wrote:
Wierdo is taking a victory lap while Tesla has lost $1.1 Billion this year alone. The dude is completely devoid from reality.

There's a reason why I've succumbed to mocking him as a cult-member. He completely ignores the reality of the numbers. There's a big difference between Tesla fanboy and Tesla cult-member, wierdo falls squarely into the "cult" category. I've hit him with the same argument for 5 pages straight, and he just ignores it and posts blogposts from around the internet, probably hoping that we'd forget the earlier points (or something). He never actually addresses points, so don't expect a real discussion from him.

Its pretty easy to see why cult-members appear. Tesla bans serious discussion on their forums and curtails arguments very strongly. The tradition extends into the Tesla-sphere: their various subreddits, electrek, insideevs, etc. etc. They all appear to be engaging in focused marketing attempts, as well as SEO to get their argument to the top of search engines. Their sentiment is further buoyed by near-zero interest rate policies, cheap money, which causes investors to pile money into many unprofitable businesses. (Uber, Lyft, MoviePass, etc. etc.). Tesla isn't as bad as some of these other companies, but its still unprofitable.

The biggest problem is the number of years it takes for a company to actually go bankrupt. I mean, we all have seen it with AMD: how the company can sustain a decade of losses but still remain in business. The Tesla cult members see "survival" as if its an indicator of quality, without actually looking at the debt load or other long-term sustainability numbers. A normal company would use that time to reform itself: choose key projects (ex: AMD Zen) to rebirth itself. To shrink gracefully and figure out a sustainable model. Its difficult work, but many companies have taken that path successfully.

Elon Musk however, ignores reality and charges forward. And his army of Cult members follow.

---------

Fortunately for me, Q3 2019 numbers are projected to be absolutely awful. I'm curious where wierdo will go when Q3 yearly and quarterly cash flow numbers are negative.

Dude...thank you. I was about to post another page-long response, but you've brought me to my senses.

I'll just keep a short, general snippet for everyone else. I am confident in saying that the ICE will never disappear from heavy vehicles[1]. Fuel is the biggest cost for businesses operating them, but downtime is way worse. Electric versions would greatly reduce that line item, but at the expense of longer downtime. Tesla's 30 minute Superchargers are based on relatively small vehicles. How long would it take for an electric semi to charge? How many megawatts would it take to power an all-electric truck stop?

And that's assuming that electric motors can even match the output of diesel (or gas) equivalents. The Model S/3 smokes other vehicles off the line because they use 4 motors and have basically zero load. A real work vehicle has to pull 1,000+ uphill for miles. (Both ways!) And it needs to do that for 6+ hours. How much battery weight is required for that? So even if you replace parts of the powertrain with electric motors, you're probably looking at an onboard diesel generator to constantly recharge the system (or power directly on high load)...then why even try to replace the diesel?

Also, pickups aren't exclusively for "compensation". There's a lot of value in being able to carry your own loads. Sure, "most" people probably don't "need" a pickup for their daily use, but there is value in owning one, even for non-business purposes. And they're pretty easy to work on compared to smaller vehicles due to their modular designs and larger size (it's easy to get hands into places). You could still sell a used 2004 Toyota Tacoma. Someone will keep that thing running for at least 10 more years.

EDIT: might as well cite something.
[1]I've worked in the industry. I know what drives decisions on these vehicles.
On second thought, let's not go to TechReport. Tis a silly place.
 
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Tue Aug 06, 2019 10:57 am

I could see a pretty good use case for diesel-electric hybrid trucks where the diesel-electric drivetrain eliminates the complex and expensive transmission as is already done on train locomotives. The hybrid part then provides for a smaller overall engine, cold-start preheating of the engine and emissions-control hardware, Jake braking, and sleeper cabin power. Done at the right scale, it could reduce fuel costs and reduce or resolve a number of emissions-related downtime issues that are plaguing the industry now.

But all-electric truck fleets...not for long-haul.
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Tue Aug 06, 2019 11:03 am

dragontamer5788 wrote:
That be exponential growth in revenue. But sure, I'll take that bet against you. I'm going to call Q3 2019 as the end of Tesla's exponential growth of revenue on a YoY basis.

I'm going to predict their YOY growth will continue at at extremely high trajectory, by then the Chinese factory will start contributing to the numbers, and the following year that production will become a significant percentage, I will also predict that rural America will continue to stagnate for ten years in infrastructure, so count them out of that new job market, and in this case I hope to be wrong. You concentrate on the convenient transition quarter for the Chinese factory, good luck with your short term thinking.

The only concern I have right now is the tariff wars picking up again, it's doing quite a number on the stock market, hopefully it wont affect Tesla too much in the long-term or America's auto market future may be in the toilet when EVs hit mainstream by 2025.

When do you predict Tesla will begin to hit legacy auto's stagnation levels? this all doesn't all happen in a vacuum, the auto market is not having a good time right now, the only growth sector is the EV segment. Tesla will keep growing faster than the competition until they reach market maturity, this is while the EV market itself expands and accelerates in adoption due to numerous factors. Any auto company that doesn't have a good EV in mass production quantities in a few years is practically screwed.

Just had my fill of small town simpletons going full Dunning-Kruger on EVs. They don't have to be along for the ride. Don't complain about the rural job market and then turn around and let new opportunities like this pass you by. Biggest and fastest growing job markets in America, the renewables industry, and you let the city take the lion's share, makes no sense.
“...so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat.”Theodore Roosevelt
 
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Tue Aug 06, 2019 11:10 am

wierdo wrote:
dragontamer5788 wrote:
That be exponential growth in revenue. But sure, I'll take that bet against you. I'm going to call Q3 2019 as the end of Tesla's exponential growth of revenue on a YoY basis.

I'm going to predict their YOY growth will continue at at extremely high trajectory, by then the Chinese factory will start contributing to the numbers, and the following year that production will become a significant percentage, I will also predict that rural America will continue to stagnate for ten years in infrastructure, so count them out of that new job market, and in this case I hope to be wrong. You concentrate on the convenient transition quarter for the Chinese factory, good luck with your short term thinking.


I'm concentrating on Q3 because its the next quarter and we have the most information on it. Lets change things up then. "Exponential growth" means... doubling? So Q3 2018 had $6.8 Billion in Revenue. When do you think Tesla will have $13.6 Billion in a single-quarter revenue?

If your exponent base isn't "2", then choose an exponent base for me. But I want a timeline for your estimate. Is Q3 too soon? Will Q4, or Q1 2020 be a better time for your bet?

The only concern I have right now is the tariff wars picking up again, it's doing quite a number on the stock market, hopefully it wont affect Tesla too much in the long-term or America's auto market future may be in the toilet when EVs hit mainstream by 2025.


Tesla will be bankrupt by then in my models. Not necessarily gone (note that GM went bankrupt during the 2008 recession, they're still around), but they'll probably default on their debts by then.
Last edited by dragontamer5788 on Tue Aug 06, 2019 11:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Tue Aug 06, 2019 11:15 am

wierdo wrote:
I will also predict that rural America will continue to stagnate for ten years in infrastructure


wierdo wrote:
Just had my fill of small town simpletons going full Dunning-Kruger on EVs. They don't have to be along for the ride. Don't complain about the rural job market and then turn around and let new opportunities like this pass you by. Biggest and fastest growing job markets in America, the renewables industry, and you let the city take the lion's share, makes no sense.


Who hurt you?

Do you believe that Deliverance is your biographical documentary?

Do you look out of the window and see hoards of hicks coming to destroy your intended future?

---

Chicago. Pittsburgh/Philadelphia. Denver. Tucson. Engineers and software developers all.

You are openly delusional.

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