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Buy or Lease a new EV

Buy
14 (40%)
Lease
11 (31%)
Neither and spend all available funds buying delicious cheese. (But I'd still need a vehicle to haul the cheese)
10 (29%)
 
Total votes: 35
 
wierdo
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Wed Aug 07, 2019 10:41 am

Jay Leno, the big gearhead, tells it like it is:

Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_cont ... cfFesv_npA

Jay Leno argues for Tesla and the adoption of EVs: ‘There’s almost no reason to have a gas car’
https://www.teslarati.com/jay-leno-shar ... -gas-cars/
Tesla’s reliability praised by Jay Leno who now sees electric cars as ‘the future’
https://electrek.co/2019/08/07/teslas-r ... he-future/

Leno maintained that electric cars are inevitable, in the same way that it was inevitable for the internal combustion engine to overtake steam engines in the past. With several territories in the world such as Europe and China aggressively pushing for the widespread adoption of electric cars, Leno noted that children born today would likely not grow up in a world where internal combustion cars are commonplace


“I mean, the advantage of electricity. I have a Tesla. I’ve had it for three years. I’ve never done anything. There’s no fluids to change. There’s nothing.


You know, For new technology to succeed, it can’t be equal. It’s got to be better. And they’ve (Tesla) sort of solved the battery problem. It can go 350 to 400 miles at a charge. There’s no maintenance. They’re faster than the gas car. So there’s almost no reason to have a gas car unless you’re doing long-haul duty,


“We live in a world now where every year, you lose about 5% of the new car companies. In the mid-teens, there were 350 car companies in the United States. Every year since then, two or three of them dropped out. I mean, just in my lifetime, we’ve lost Oldsmobile, we’ve lost Pontiac, we’ve lost Saturn. There’s a whole bunch that just disappeared.

“So here comes a brand new car company, so that’s impressive. It’s a tough business to get into; and the fact that Tesla is making a go of it and quite successfully, I think is impressive and should be applauded. We’re becoming like the British — we like noble failures. I would watch, listen to these radio talk shows just tear Tesla apart; and I go, ‘Here’s a guy, building an American car in America, using American labor. Why are you not rooting for it to be successful? Why do you wish it would fail?’ I don’t quite understand,” he said.

That should help greatly with public awareness, coming from a famous celebrity with a knack for amassing a huge car collection.

Blast that knowledge across old cable networks, lots of older people need to see the message and get educated!
Last edited by wierdo on Wed Aug 07, 2019 10:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
“...so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat.”Theodore Roosevelt
 
wierdo
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Wed Aug 07, 2019 10:43 am

Captain Ned wrote:
Definitely Turing-bot, as you're completely immune to sarcasm.

Whatever you say bud, if you can't keep up with the message, attack the messenger, got it.
“...so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat.”Theodore Roosevelt
 
wierdo
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Thu Aug 08, 2019 12:13 pm

Volkswagen, a heavyweight contender, now chimes in with the same talking points:

https://electrek.co/2019/08/08/vw-elect ... -adoption/

"We strongly believe that the tipping point is near, and that tipping point will be price equity”
The executive believes that Volkswagen’s massive electric car push will bring new economies of scale to electric car production and achieve price parity.
VW is currently investing billions in order to change its all-electric car production capacity from a few thousand units per year to 2 to 3 million all-electric cars a year by 2025.

Those would finally be past compliance production numbers for them. Good start.

“Once you overcome the fear of something new, the EV is the better choice for you. I don’t think it’s going to take a lot of convincing. There is a fundamental curiosity. Everybody sees the end state. When you put pencil to paper, owning a full-electric vehicle costs about half of what a gas car costs me to operate.

They are probably going to be the key to accelerating mass production of EVs and bringing prices down rapidly, they have the resources to make a big dent if they stay committed to their relatively aggressive EV plans. Should be an interesting and disruptive generation for energy and transport technology.
“...so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat.”Theodore Roosevelt
 
dragontamer5788
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Thu Aug 08, 2019 12:30 pm

dragontamer5788 wrote:
wierdo wrote:
dragontamer5788 wrote:
That be exponential growth in revenue. But sure, I'll take that bet against you. I'm going to call Q3 2019 as the end of Tesla's exponential growth of revenue on a YoY basis.

I'm going to predict their YOY growth will continue at at extremely high trajectory, by then the Chinese factory will start contributing to the numbers, and the following year that production will become a significant percentage, I will also predict that rural America will continue to stagnate for ten years in infrastructure, so count them out of that new job market, and in this case I hope to be wrong. You concentrate on the convenient transition quarter for the Chinese factory, good luck with your short term thinking.


I'm concentrating on Q3 because its the next quarter and we have the most information on it. Lets change things up then. "Exponential growth" means... doubling? So Q3 2018 had $6.8 Billion in Revenue. When do you think Tesla will have $13.6 Billion in a single-quarter revenue?

If your exponent base isn't "2", then choose an exponent base for me. But I want a timeline for your estimate. Is Q3 too soon? Will Q4, or Q1 2020 be a better time for your bet?

The only concern I have right now is the tariff wars picking up again, it's doing quite a number on the stock market, hopefully it wont affect Tesla too much in the long-term or America's auto market future may be in the toilet when EVs hit mainstream by 2025.


Tesla will be bankrupt by then in my models. Not necessarily gone (note that GM went bankrupt during the 2008 recession, they're still around), but they'll probably default on their debts by then.


@Weirdo: just reposting my challenge since it got lost in the noise.

You said you predicted "exponential" growth in Tesla's near future. What exactly do you mean? $10 Billion revenue in a quarter? Or $15 Billion revenue? And when do you expect it to happen?
 
wierdo
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Thu Aug 08, 2019 3:27 pm

dragontamer5788 wrote:
You said you predicted "exponential" growth in Tesla's near future. What exactly do you mean? $10 Billion revenue in a quarter? Or $15 Billion revenue? And when do you expect it to happen?

I predict they will achieve an exponential growth when the Chinese factory is fully online and producing 500,000 cars per year by end of 2021. They may even be close to that when the factory is at their initial 150,000 cars per year level by end of 2020, provided they can achieve close to their 10,000/week target in Fremont as well.

I don't think demand will be a problem, but you can continue to bet against the demand if you'd like.

I also think it's safe to bet on Tesla growing every year by healthy double digit percentages after that, meanwhile legacy Detroit manufacturers will continue to stagnate while they sit and wait on Germans to bail them out with efforts like the unified platform licensing approach. GM might be ok if they take their EV plans seriously and go beyond compliance, but Ford and Chrysler don't look so hot.

dragontamer5788 wrote:
I'm concentrating on Q3 because its the next quarter and we have the most information on it. Lets change things up then.

What information do you have on it? How does it play into the long-term plans? Does the overhead of a new factory spinning up for the next year count as a positive or negative in your game? It's noise.

Looking at annual growth reduces the volatility that comes from one off events such as new factory investments or new model announcements and such, going quarterly is picking and choosing the ups and downs, it's noise on a long-term graph.

I'm being quite short-term when I'm thinking about it on a yearly basis to begin with, the Model S took years to prepare the company for the Model 3, what if people thought about it on a quarterly basis back then? Oh wait, they did, and Tesla is still not bankwupt over 10 years past the quarterly predictions, wrong every single quarter for over ten years. They can make quarterly predictions and be wrong for another ten, it doesn't matter.

I'm betting on America to stay in the auto manufacturing game ten years from now, through its star startup, Tesla. I have doubts about one or two of the three Detroit manufacturers staying in business, but I do hope I'm wrong and they pull off something unexpected - beside another bailout.

I don't bet against my country's success.
“...so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat.”Theodore Roosevelt
 
wierdo
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Thu Aug 08, 2019 3:37 pm

On a more humorous note:

https://insideevs.com/news/364019/stole ... -depleted/
Kinda hard to steal someone's EV when the supercharger access is disabled lol.

https://insideevs.com/news/364048/video ... -airplane/
Interesting application for the fast acceleration of the Model S as a chase car for jets and bombers etc.
Last edited by wierdo on Thu Aug 15, 2019 4:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
“...so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat.”Theodore Roosevelt
 
dragontamer5788
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Thu Aug 08, 2019 5:19 pm

wierdo wrote:
dragontamer5788 wrote:
You said you predicted "exponential" growth in Tesla's near future. What exactly do you mean? $10 Billion revenue in a quarter? Or $15 Billion revenue? And when do you expect it to happen?

I predict they will achieve an exponential growth when the Chinese factory is fully online and producing 500,000 cars per year by end of 2021. They may even be close to that when the factory is at their initial 150,000 cars per year level by end of 2020, provided they can achieve close to their 10,000/week target in Fremont as well.

I don't think demand will be a problem, but you can continue to bet against the demand if you'd like.

I also think it's safe to bet on Tesla growing every year by healthy double digit percentages after that, meanwhile legacy Detroit manufacturers will continue to stagnate while they sit and wait on Germans to bail them out with efforts like the unified platform licensing approach. GM might be ok if they take their EV plans seriously and go beyond compliance, but Ford and Chrysler don't look so hot.


I'm trying to nail something down more concrete than that unfortunately. A few months ago, you were talking revenue, but this month you're talking cash flow.

Basically, I'm annoying with how you change your opinion based on whatever numbers look best. I'm trying to correct that. So make a decision: do you want to track revenue, or do you want to track cash flow? I've had enough of this funny business about switching around numbers for whatever best suits your argument.

I don't blame you per se. Mr. Musk is switching the arguments to suit himself better and it is obvious to me that you're just parroting his argument. But I'm smarter than that and can trivially see when people shift numbers around to suit their arguments. If Tesla is truly growing, it doesn't matter which number you pick, as long as you remain consistent moving forward. So take your pick, Revenue, or Free Cash Flow? What do you want to focus on moving forward?

Looking at annual growth reduces the volatility that comes from one off events such as new factory investments or new model announcements and such, going quarterly is picking and choosing the ups and downs, it's noise on a long-term graph.


New factory investments do not count against Revenue, Gross Profit, Operational Profit, or Net Profit numbers. New model announcements are similarly R&D costs, which do not count against Revenue, Gross Profit, Operational Profit, or Net Profit.

Accounting is lovely like that. Most short-term issues are ignored if you do accounting properly. Of course, short-term issues matter, which is why we add those issues back in the Cash Flow statement.

That's the general idea of accounting: Income Statements track long-term trends, while Cash-flow statements track short-term trends. Combining both views allows us to have both a long-term and short-term view of a company. Which is why I find Elon Musk's focus on Cash Flow this past month to be... amusing... and short-sighted... to say the least.

----------

To answer your Gigafactory 3 question: Cash Flow is about to torpedo as the Gigafactory 3 comes online. Tesla will have to spend $Billions to get all of the equipment into that factory and start production. Operational-income won't be affected however, because buying Factory Equipment is clearly a CapEx / Investment. I continue to expect Operational-income to be negative due to excessive SG&A costs (Warranties, Supercharger, Marketing, Sales, etc. etc.)

Unfortunately for Tesla: Warranties, Marketing, and Sales do NOT get cheaper when you make more cars. It gets more expensive as you need to hire more sales staff and service more car problems. As such, I don't see any path to profitability at the moment. And that's the number I'm going to focus on most: Operational Income.
 
wierdo
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Thu Aug 08, 2019 7:11 pm

dragontamer5788 wrote:
I'm trying to correct that.

What exactly are you trying to correct here? what is your agenda? Is there a problem with Tesla disappointing random speculators for more than ten years with its unusual business model for automobile sales? Is this going to finally be the year you're gonna be right about Tesla's so called financial woes?

You think they're doing better than Ford for example? Size may be their downfall here, they better hope truck sales don't suddenly tank, that's the only thing they got. Tesla is more flexible and diversified, and are not selling soon to be obsolete technology.

Image
Link (eww): https://seekingalpha.com/article/418060 ... or-company

Makes Tesla look really good by comparison. Plus Tesla is backed by enthusiastic long-term investors, they wouldn't be in trouble even if they somehow exhaust their record cash flow.

dragontamer5788 wrote:
So take your pick, Revenue, or Free Cash Flow? What do you want to focus on moving forward?

Instead of playing your silly game, how about you just watch Tesla dominate in a few years? Because obviously you're trying to find a negative scenario to build your clumsy little thesis on. I could care less about your financial motivations, this is a major market disruption in the making, a bigger trend than your little game, and you're blind to these changes happening right next door.

I'm just trying to share that knowledge of upcoming disruption from ground zero, and from this angle your argument is might as well be about water not being wet, we see Teslas allover the place here like they're Toyotas. You don't wanna believe it, that's your call, smart doesn't mean stubborn, go read less about amateur bean counting and more about EV technology and the global politics revolving around it.

If an auto manufacturer is not able to sell a competitive EV, and wind down their aging ICE business that's weighing them down, in a few years then they are simply screwed, simple as that. There is no future in legacy ICE technology, it's over.
“...so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat.”Theodore Roosevelt
 
dragontamer5788
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Thu Aug 08, 2019 11:50 pm

dragontamer5788 wrote:
So take your pick, Revenue, or Free Cash Flow? What do you want to focus on moving forward?

Instead of playing your silly game, how about you just watch Tesla dominate in a few years? Because obviously you're trying to find a negative scenario to build your clumsy little thesis on.


Hah. Scared of numbers. Got it.

I could care less about your financial motivations


Know how much money I got in Tesla? $0. I have no shares short, no motivation at all. Your turn punk. Whats your story? How much money you got on the stock? Why the hell are you spending hours posting on this forum copy-paste data from crappy websites constantly, and accusing the rest of us of being "financially motivated" against you? What are you, an actual shill account for Tesla or something?

But its highly amusing to me that you're accusing me of being financially motivated. I own SPY shares + Blackguard retirement funds. in my 401k. I also have 10-year, 5-year, and 1-year US Treasuries, as well as a mix of Municipal bonds. I've placed specific stock bets on MMM, Sysco, Costco, PEB (a few others that I forget about, but those four are probably my biggest current bets). These individual stocks I own are "play money", very small investments. (Hmmm... I probably should sell Sysco though. Recession is bad for restaurants....) You happy? There's my financial motivation.

In either case, it doesn't matter. All I want from you is a proper definition of your argument.

--------

My "game" is quite simple. YOU MOVE GOALPOSTS. Constantly. You never have a consistent argument, and your posts are highly unfocused. All I'm asking you to do is focus your damn words onto an actual point. So, for the sake of all of us here, what do you mean by "exponential growth" ? Do you mean revenue growth? Do you mean cash flow growth? Or do you mean profit growth? Again, it honestly doesn't matter. I'm frankly just tired of you moving goalposts and being inconsistent.

And if you're unwilling to define what you mean by "exponential growth", then maybe you should stop using that phrase. Because its clear to me that the words "exponential growth" mean more to me than they mean to you.

A prediction of "exponential growth" will have a time, and magnitude. I appreciate your prediction of "double digits", but I'm sorry, but I don't trust you to be vague. I want a bit more specificity than that, because I know you're just going to run through all the financial sheets and look for some double-digit number somewhere. So I want you to pick a specific number: Revenue, Gross, Net, or Free Cash Flow, so that we're all crystal clear on what you really mean by your posts.

The fact of the matter is: the number you pick doesn't matter. I just want you to pick a number, so that you can't move goalposts again in a few months.

Is this going to finally be the year you're gonna be right about Tesla's so called financial woes?


I've been correct for years actually. But you wouldn't know that. People didn't believe me on bear-forums when I told them that Tesla could survive through a lot of other crap. But enough issues have finally surfaced that I'm willing to call 2023 as a high chance of Tesla bankruptcy (at least, as long as Elon continues making these mistakes he's been doing). These things take years to develop, and years to fall apart.

With regards to my predictions this year, I've been kind of spot on so far. Its a bit of luck but yeah, I've literally called their deliveries within hundreds of cars, and also called roughly the magnitude of their losses (to be fair: I wasn't specific. I just said "multiple hundreds of millions lost" but otherwise left it unspecified. But... yeah, called Q2 pretty decently IMO).
 
wierdo
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Fri Aug 09, 2019 12:46 pm

dragontamer5788 wrote:
Hah. Scared of numbers. Got it.

Bored of the dry topic. I wanna talk technology. I have zero interest of concern about the finances for the leader of a rapidly rising niche.

dragontamer5788 wrote:
I have no shares short, no motivation at all.

I don't believe you have no motivation, you live a life of negativity for no reason? I think you're threatened by the company in some fashion. You're obviously not stupid, I know that much, your negative financial spin and feigned panic is amusing but not disorderly and impulsive.

But if it's not stupidity though, then it would be malicious. It's methodical and intentional. Reminds me allot of Montana Skeptic, an executive for an oil investor, hiding behind a handle in order to attack the company, getting outed later to much ridicule.

But I really don't care, I'm not here to debate financials, I want to share EV technology news.

I understand this is like the nerd who went to talk about his tricked out PC tower on BBS for Sports Illustrated, but I came with the expectation of higher overlap between the two "geek" camps, my mistake I guess.

It Is Difficult to Get a Man to Understand Something When His Salary Depends Upon His Not Understanding It - Upton Sinclair

Are you afraid of obsolescence? Are you afraid of what this disruption will do to legacy jobs? Or is it just petty jealousy of successful men? It's strange to have this much obsession for wishing an American company to fail.

dragontamer5788 wrote:
My "game" is quite simple. YOU MOVE GOALPOSTS. Constantly.

You are looking for excuses to claim the company will finally fail this quarter, then the next, you love to dismiss positive and nitpick on negatives, it's silly. Your definition of failure moves to target whatever weakness you see in the numbers, you don't care about the big picture.

I know your game, did you pick sales figures higher than the highest Wallstreet analyst by 10,000 cars because you wanted a number that would let you claim disappointment? Yet the company surpassed your wild estimates regardless, not to mention those of other Wallstreet diplomas mills. Well I guess since the numbers didn't suck you had to move to another target.

You don't have to go out of your way to spin doom and gloom, there are challenges, but nothing to make corny "Nostradamus" predictions over. You're not the first person that made such claims, it's been going on for over ten years, this year will be the apocalypse for sure, please believe me!

Some nice balance here, positives and negatives, without the melodrama:
https://insideevs.com/news/364287/tesla ... -sideways/

dragontamer5788 wrote:
I'm willing to call 2023 as a high chance of Tesla bankruptcy (at least, as long as Elon continues making these mistakes he's been doing).

Well there we go, a nice solid deadline, and it's not a quarterly for a change, good job!

Myself I believe 2023 will be a great year for Tesla, because the Chinese factory will be operating at full capacity and producing high demand vehicles for Asia at twice the current Fremont margins.

Now we just wait.
“...so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat.”Theodore Roosevelt
 
wierdo
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Fri Aug 09, 2019 12:50 pm

Hmm... gonna be a while though, so while waiting, check out this cool Porche EV, that's their answer to the Model S I think:

Image
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_cont ... P9kokeyxGU

Looks awesome. Should bring more awareness to EVs across the world, coming from a major super-car brand.
“...so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat.”Theodore Roosevelt
 
dragontamer5788
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Fri Aug 09, 2019 3:15 pm

I don't believe you have no motivation, you live a life of negativity for no reason? I think you're threatened by the company in some fashion. You're obviously not stupid, I know that much, your negative financial spin and feigned panic is amusing but not disorderly and impulsive.


This is hilarious. I've fully disclosed the full scope of my stock purchases to you. You can rest assured that I live very far away from Detroit, or other companies. I'm a programmer at a technology startup with less than 10 employees, with no ties to the car, financial, or oil industries. I'm about as neutral as you can get.

Deal with it. I'm a fully neutral party. And if your entire argument rests on a false ad-hominem attack against my motivation, you've already lost the game.

I've got nothing against Tesla. In fact, I'm a supporter of the electric car movement. Politically, I believe in global warming and believe that the oil industry is destroying our world. If anything, my bias leans towards Tesla. That doesn't change the financial numbers that Tesla is putting out, the lies that Elon Musk spews, or my annoyance at the cult which has grown around his (and other Twitter) personalities.

If you don't believe me, that's just hilarious to me. Your worldview is so warped by your cult leader that you're unable to deal with reality. Its not my job to bring you out of your cult-like fervor. I've done my fair share of work by notifying you about your behavior.
 
wierdo
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Sun Aug 11, 2019 9:45 am

dragontamer5788 wrote:
I don't believe you have no motivation, you live a life of negativity for no reason? I think you're threatened by the company in some fashion. You're obviously not stupid, I know that much, your negative financial spin and feigned panic is amusing but not disorderly and impulsive.


This is hilarious. I've fully disclosed the full scope of my stock purchases to you. You can rest assured that I live very far away from Detroit, or other companies. I'm a programmer at a technology startup with less than 10 employees, with no ties to the car, financial, or oil industries. I'm about as neutral as you can get.

Deal with it. I'm a fully neutral party. And if your entire argument rests on a false ad-hominem attack against my motivation, you've already lost the game.

Your obsession with every mynute financial detail is simply a means to an end. You just ignore positives and spin negatives with a dash of comical hysteria, you're not analyzing, you're chasing a wish. It's disagreeing with the company's direction simply on principle.

Nevermind their continuing market dominance in EVs, the obvious trend rapidly taking place on a global scale toward EVs and away from ICE, nor the company positioning themselves to capitalize on that with their unique advantages. The challenges are too immense, their plans are not gonna work and they will fail at all costs according to you.

I don't ever see you discuss technical details, just financial sniping, so I guess this subject is not your cup of tea. That's fine and dandy, have fun with the crystal ball, but I'm looking to share this excitement around EVs with those that are actually into the technology, that's it.

So if you're into discussing and geeking out on the future of EV technology, then I'm all ears. About trends and advances, the fun stuff. Following and predicting where technology is going is much more interesting imho.

I keep trying to get some laggards - not directed at you, talking in general - warmed up to the idea and coming out of their comfort zones, but it's easier said than done, I guess they have to see it to believe it.

Down here it's almost impossible now to walk down the street without spotting a few EVs pass by, last night we came out of the movies and spotted half a dozen Teslas in the parking lot for example. Maybe I should take a video sometime.
“...so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat.”Theodore Roosevelt
 
just brew it!
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Mon Aug 12, 2019 7:42 am

wierdo wrote:
Your obsession with every mynute financial detail scrap of positive news (no matter how tenuous) is simply a means to an end. You just ignore positives negatives and spin negatives positives with a dash heaping helping of comical hysteria evangelical fervor, you're not analyzing, you're chasing a wish. It's disagreeing with the company's direction simply on principle.

Right back at you! :wink:
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dragontamer5788
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Mon Aug 12, 2019 11:17 am

Weirdo wrote:
Bored of the dry topic.


Hey everyone, lets place bets on how many posts before Weirdo posts about "exponential growth" again before getting "bored" of the subject?

I bet... 5 posts. :-)

-----------

Weirdo: you're clearly interested in the "Exponential growth" story of Tesla. Its literally all you talk about. I'm just trying to get down some specifics on what that really means to you.

I've pulled out "double-digit growth" (~10% or more) over the course of a year. Which is... an odd way of interpreting "exponential growth" but hey, whatever floats your boat. I just want one last specifier: is this FCF or Revenue? You've been interested in both of these statistics in the past (FCF is all you've talked about since Q2 filings, while Revenue was all you talked about a few months ago). FCF and Revenue are very different things, so I want to know: do you expect "double digit growth" in one number, both numbers? Or are you talking about some other number right now?

Or really, pick "double-digit growth" in any other metric you'd like. Do you want #Model 3 sales? I think I can agree that Model 3 sales will increase, but what's the point if Tesla can only increase sales by lowering prices? Case in point: The Model3 in China is going to be $3000 cheaper, and won't have any US Tax credits either. So I expect it to have a relatively low average selling price and not have major revenue. So "Revenue" and "Free Cash Flow" are better numbers. Tesla can't "Grow" profits by any percentage amount btw, because profits are negative. Tesla has to make a profit before they can grow profits.

I'm fine waiting a year. Its going to take 2-years before my 2021 prediction comes around (Tesla is hampered severely by the March 2021 bond repayment, but I don't expect bankruptcy), and then 4-years before my 2023 prediction comes around (full bankruptcy on the next $Billion loan repayment in 2023). "Hampered severely" isn't a real prediction I guess, but maybe it'd be evident in a decrease in Capital Expenditures and other investments. (Naturally: when a company runs out of money, they'll cut investments). IE: 2021 will see Tesla cutting projects trying to stay alive, before 2023 where they completely go bankrupt.

I think Tesla's #1 risk before 2021 is that they may miss a payment to suppliers. But I don't expect suppliers to sue them for bankruptcy. I expect Tesla to live at least till 2021. And I've also seen plenty of companies make a difficult $Billion bond payment by scrounging up the cash (ie: AMD) by firing key staff and selling headquarters or whatever. So I fully expect Tesla to survive one major debt hurdle.
 
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Mon Aug 12, 2019 11:32 pm

Give this obvious experiment a try:

Go to the BBS for Vogue magazine, start talking about your nice little computer case and the colorful LEDs you put in it, maybe convince someone to try the new AMD chips. The folks there will be confused about your obsession with a silly box, all they know is the dell laptop they got off Sam's club, what's with this waste of time? And they'll be equally confused about the AMD brand, all they know is Intel from TV, that cool jingle and promise of quality with no alternatives, their limited knowledge is driven by the shallow media coverage. Oblivious to trends.

You may have assumed that you could find common interests with Vogue readers in some fashion, but your geeky idea of fashion and style is alien to them, and you will likely get awkward looks and incredulous behavior, like you've insulted their fragile little egos and sense of identity in some way. Your lifestyle is an affront to their limited world view.

This is what I'm experiencing here, coming from EV and renewable technology sites, someone that enjoys keeping up with the latest and greatest and sharing that geeky stuff with others, making the mistake of assuming one school of geekdom easily transfers to another, but the two circles don't seem to have that much overlap. I was an avid TR reader until Intel's ten years of market dominance led to stagnant progress, so I had to expand my interests to fill that gap, I guess not everyone was interested in following technology the same way.

In communication studies they warn against "assuming similarity" when it comes to studying another culture. Common mistake when traveling, and I guess that can apply to online interactions. Oh well, live and learn, I should have kept it simple, too much information can be overwhelming and cause defensive reactions, especially in an environment where allot of people are nervous about change, fearing for their jobs or lifestyles going out of fashion.

I'll let you guys - you know who you are - live in the past, less competition for these new jobs is not a bad thing, the rich get richer for a reason. See you when you get here in 20 years. Have fun with the amateur accounting, gasoline horse carriages and those fancy case LEDs till then, learn the hard way in your insular little nooks lol.
Last edited by wierdo on Tue Aug 13, 2019 1:06 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Tue Aug 13, 2019 1:03 am

I think you are taking this way too personally. It’s just a car company.
 
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Tue Aug 13, 2019 1:10 am

Usacomp2k3 wrote:
I think you are taking this way too personally. It’s just a car company.

It's not about this or that company, I'm preaching about EV technology in general, and the obvious trend that's happening in big population centers, these things will trickle down to suburban and then rural areas in time, but some folks will continue to bury their heads in the sand.

It doesn't have to be Tesla, Warren Buffet is betting on BYD, that's perfectly fine as well, that company also has great odds are dominating the market. The point is EVs are happening whether some people in remote areas see it or not, and I'm just giving them advance notice in the hope of encouraging some personal research, that's all.

But some folks just rather bully and ridicule than learn new tricks, so be it.
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Tue Aug 13, 2019 1:21 am

I think Randal Munroe has been reading this thread.

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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Tue Aug 13, 2019 6:46 am

wierdo wrote:
Go to the BBS for Vogue magazine, start talking about your nice little computer case and the colorful LEDs you put in it, maybe convince someone to try the new AMD chips. The folks there will be confused about your obsession with a silly box, all they know is the dell laptop they got off Sam's club, what's with this waste of time? And they'll be equally confused about the AMD brand, all they know is Intel from TV, that cool jingle and promise of quality with no alternatives, their limited knowledge is driven by the shallow media coverage. Oblivious to trends.

You may have assumed that you could find common interests with Vogue readers in some fashion, but your geeky idea of fashion and style is alien to them, and you will likely get awkward looks and incredulous behavior, like you've insulted their fragile little egos and sense of identity in some way. Your lifestyle is an affront to their limited world view.

That's a pretty lousy analogy.

A better one would be someone from these forums going on an EV forum, and insisting that RISC-V is a far superior CPU architecture which will replace all others within 5 years.

In a thread someone started to ask his fellow EV enthusiasts whether to buy an HP or a Dell laptop.
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Tue Aug 13, 2019 9:50 am

wierdo wrote:
It doesn't have to be Tesla


Then quit attacking me (and other users), and quit preaching exclusively about Tesla.

I've said my piece on electric vehicles: they're the future, although expensive for now. My case in point is the billions of dollars Tesla loses a year. Figuring out a sustainable business model is the #1 goal of the electric car industry. There's no point in going electric (or buying a Tesla) if you expect the company go to bankrupt. Even today: CapEx / OpEx budgets for warranties has clearly declined. You may not care about the number of service centers and how Tesla-nickle-and-dimes their customers (ex: Yellow ring issue), but the greater majority of car buyers cares about warranties, service quality, and longetivity.

In the long term, it will do more good to purchase vehicles which have a strong and solid financial backing. A company which makes a profit will continue to sell and support its producct for long into the future, while a company which fails to make a profit will inevitably cut services and begin to nickle-and-dime its customers. At minimum, a company needs to break even if they want to sustain themselves: a small profit is fine, but a huge (and exponentially increasing) losses will doom the company.
 
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Tue Aug 13, 2019 3:33 pm

wierdo wrote:
It's not about this or that company, I'm preaching

Yeah. We noticed.
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Wed Aug 14, 2019 10:36 am

ludi wrote:
wierdo wrote:
It's not about this or that company, I'm preaching

Yeah. We noticed.

Yes about progress in trasportation, energy and autonomy, but allot of people don't get it. Just let them get there at their own pace.

If someone asks, I'll just point them to EV sites, this is not the place for that knowledge, stick to LED lights so people don't get scared lol.

Back to the original topic, here's a comparison between a Kona, Model 3 and BMW. It doesn't exactly make sense, but still valuable info for prospective modern car shoppers:

Tesla Model 3 vs Hyundai Kona vs BMW 330i

https://www.topgear.com/car-news/electr ... s-bmw-330i
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Wed Aug 14, 2019 10:43 am

dragontamer5788 wrote:
Then quit attacking me (and other users), and quit preaching exclusively about Tesla.

I'm not exclusivity talking about Tesla, you exclusively pick up on it when I post, then constantly push your little short case to get a response, so it naturally drowns out the conversation, Tesla or otherwise, with that constant negativity.

Feel free to go back and pick up on non-Tesla stories I posted on your own time if you like, they're not going anywhere.

Sure, Tesla will get more coverage and news than others simply because they do the most in this field, but there are lots of other players like BYD for example. You do know China converted 400,000 of their buses to EVs already, right? They're waaaay ahead of us in EV modernization on a local level, but we still have the technical edge in the short term.

https://singularityhub.com/2019/04/22/c ... -combined/

Today, there are reportedly close to 400,000 electric buses in operation, 99 percent of them in China. The Chinese government has made a concerted effort to promote electric vehicles. ... Shenzhen, a fast-growing megacity with 12 million inhabitants, is the vanguard of electric buses, with a fleet of 16,000 of them.

No wonder billionaires like Warren Buffet are betting on them to lead the future of the world's energy economy.

BYD is exporting those buses now, and towns allover the world, including here, are buying them up in droves to modernize their fleets as well. BYD could potentially begin selling their EVs as well any time now, they got CARB certification on some of their models as we speak.
Last edited by wierdo on Thu Aug 15, 2019 4:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Wed Aug 14, 2019 12:36 pm

wierdo wrote:
If someone asks, I'll just point them to EV sites, this is not the place for that knowledge, stick to LED lights so people don't get scared lol.

Well, if they rely on a preacher for that kind of information, I'm sure they'll find exactly what they were looking for.
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Wed Aug 14, 2019 1:05 pm

wierdo wrote:
Feel free to go back and pick up on non-Tesla stories I posted on your own time if you like, they're not going anywhere.


Lets see how long your "general EV" posting behavior gets before you start preaching about Tesla's "exponential growth" again. If you keep reading (and posting) from obviously slanted sites like Teslarati or InsideEVs, its only a matter of time before the inevitable Tesla-comparisons come out.

You gotta stop surrounding yourself with that echo-chamber nonsense if you actually want to get a balanced viewpoint on the world.
 
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Wed Aug 14, 2019 7:08 pm

dragontamer5788 wrote:
If you keep reading (and posting) from obviously slanted sites like Teslarati or InsideEVs, its only a matter of time before the inevitable Tesla-comparisons come out.

You gotta stop surrounding yourself with that echo-chamber nonsense if you actually want to get a balanced viewpoint on the world.

The anti-intellectual response to me sharing information from dedicated EV sites is telling, wow!

I can understand your allergy to the Tesla specific one, being a dedicated hater with street cred to uphold lol.... but every enthusiast site that reports on EVs? Talk about sticking your head in the sand.

Can you imagine telling someone that AMD offers the better CPUs and they tell you to stop following PC news sites cause they're a "bad" influence? That's just ridiculous.

The fact is they follow this stuff much more closely, and know much more about EVs than you do, don't pretend otherwise, maybe you could learn a thing or two about the changing world if you stop and listen for a change, maybe pull the curtain away for a minute to see outside your limited window, there's a bigger world out there beyond your little street corner you know, look at the big picture for a change.

Anyway, instead of this unproductive back and forth negativity, I just came to share a cool video about the Reno Zoe. You might have an allergic reaction to American-made EVs, how about French ones? They're doing their part down there too:

Image
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IYBz_5H2jdw

It's really a shame they don't sell these in the states, they're awesome cars from a company that's actually serious about EVs, not like all these other legacy companies that are struggling to modernize.

Edit: fix typo.
Last edited by wierdo on Thu Aug 15, 2019 4:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Wed Aug 14, 2019 8:09 pm

You act like we're all anti-EV zealots or something. That's not the case at all. As I've already noted, I'm pro-EV. I'm just not willing to ignore significant practical roadblocks (heh...) to widespread EV adoption, or the fact that Tesla's current business trajectory is unsustainable, or the fact that Elon keeps lying through his teeth about the feasibility of LIDAR-less "full self-driving" capability being ready any time soon. Unless he gets more realistic about how he markets "autopilot", eventually the DOT is going to get tired of Tesla owners getting decapitated when their vehicles drive under semi trailers, and Elon's gonna have a dose of reality imposed on him by the courts.
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Wed Aug 14, 2019 9:36 pm

just brew it! wrote:
You act like we're all anti-EV zealots or something. That's not the case at all. As I've already noted, I'm pro-EV. I'm just not willing to ignore significant practical roadblocks (heh...) to widespread EV adoption

That's fine, I agree with this to an extent, there are areas in the country with missing infrastructure for EVs, they will take time to reach. But I'm talking here about the mainstream market, the high population centers of the nation, and there's allot of movement right now, California has areas that sell EVs at the rate of 1 out of 5 new cars, and some countries - beside Norway that is approaching fifty percent already - are about to hit double digit EV marketshare abroad already, already quite earlier than many experts expected.

It's normal for new technology to take off in the usual areas first, look at cellphones and broadband, yet some people seem to be in disbelief about this shift in the trend centers of the nation for some reason, like it's hard to look up, I don't get it, apathy I guess?

My argument is simply that we can't ignore this change, and should prepare and capitalize on it, work on spending rapidly on infrastructure and funding for new factories and startups. We got companies like Rivian and Bolinger that should be supported for what they're trying to accomplish as well, these companies could become America's next Detroit three, we need this new blood. China has a hundred of them, we can't we have at least three?

We have competition across the world chomping at the bits to control transport, energy and storage, all of these tie closely into EV technology. It's this century's oil, and we should strive to get there first imho.
Last edited by wierdo on Thu Aug 15, 2019 5:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: To Lease or too buy an EV

Thu Aug 15, 2019 10:04 am

wierdo wrote:
It's normal for new technology to take off in the usual areas first, look at cellphones and broadband, yet some people seem to be in disbelief about this shift in the trend centers of the nation for some reason, like it's hard to look up, I don't get it, apathy I guess?

My argument is simply that we can't ignore this change, and should prepare and capitalize on it, work on spending rapidly on infrastructure and funding for new factories and startups. We got companies like Rivian and Bolinger that should be supported for what they're trying to accomplish as well, these companies could become America's next Detroit three, we need this new blood. China has a hundred of them, we can't we have at least three?


I don't think it's disbelief, apathy or anything like that it's just that cellphones and broadband were replacing things that had major tangible disadvantages with things that didn't have those disadvantages (IE, dialup was slow and while you could carry your home phone around town in a bag your couldn't make calls on it). EVs currently have significant disadvantages compared to the things they replace. Over time those disadvantages will almost certainly go away and/or be outweighed by the advantages inherent to EVs but until then you need to be realistic about who should or shouldn't buy an EV.

There are many people who's needs fit well with current EVs and to those people I say go ahead and get one. But you can't just go around automatically telling everyone they're a fool for buying a legacy/obsolete ICE vehicle without checking how that person needs to use that vehicle.

Blind eulogising like that is a common trap for some Linux enthusiasts and does more harm than good.

We shouldn't ignore change and change in the EV market isn't something we should ignore either. The EVs currently on the market could easily look like ridiculous toys in just a few years time if one of the various promised battery improvements actually makes it out the lab (if the Samsung rumours are true, graphene is very close). You have to keep in mind that buying an EV now makes you an early adopter and that brings risk.
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