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I re-download the entire data series each week to ensure that any changes make it to the sheet.

When I did it this AM, there were small changes in each week going back to the beginning of 2019-2020.

Vrock wrote:

derFunkenstein wrote:

Glorious wrote:

We've got the rest of our lives to point fingers at each other and argue it out.

Yeah, that's what, another two to three months?

I mean, according to some people in this thread we should be dead already.

MILLIONS COULD DIE IF WE AREN'T PERPETUALLY SIX FEET AWAY FROM EACH OTHER.

My wife is so boned.

In more ways than one. HAYOOOOOOOO

On reading pandemic charts:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/on ... ic-peaked/

JustAnEngineer wrote:

On reading pandemic charts:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/on ... ic-peaked/

And?

derFunkenstein wrote:

HAYOOOOOOOO

derFunkWolfenstein?

Captain Ned wrote:

Let me add this here as well (already on Slack channel):

https://www.dropbox.com/s/g28msjx2xt15q ... .xlsx?dl=0

What point are you trying to make with this figure?

Where are the "extra" deaths? They ain't in this graph.

Captain Ned wrote:

Where are the "extra" deaths? They ain't in this graph.

They definitely are. Look at when COVID deaths in the U.S. started to take off (around March 14th, or Week 12). The normal trend, as your figure shows, is for deaths to decline as flu season wanes. 2020 is the only year where deaths are increasing from March - Present. If I go to the link on your figure: https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/mortality.html, it's even more apparent. At it's peak so far in Week 15, 14.5% of all deaths were attributed to P&I, when the baseline is 7%. If you move those extra deaths to the peak of the traditional flu season, the deaths per million is at least equivalent, if not greater, than the 2017 flu season peak.

Edit: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... eport.html

The above link also adds in COVID deaths, not just P&I (not sure the distinction between the two). Now 24% of all deaths in week 15 are attributed to COVID/Pneumonia/Influenza instead of 14.5.

tfp wrote:

JustAnEngineer wrote:

On reading pandemic charts:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/on ... ic-peaked/

And?

There is no "and". This is his modus operandi. He's like the COVID-19 Shortbread guy.

Vrock wrote:

tfp wrote:

JustAnEngineer wrote:

On reading pandemic charts:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/on ... ic-peaked/

And?

There is no "and". This is his modus operandi. He's like the COVID-19 Shortbread guy.

I think if you expand to Forum Shortbread Guy this is accurate.

Dr. Osterholm on how we go forward from here, living with CoViD-19:
https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/pod ... episode-5_

"We have to understand we're going to open up. We cannot exist in a closed-down mode for how many many months it might take before we get a vaccine. At best, no more than 5% of the nation's population has been infected. If we're going to achieve herd immunity, requiring 60-70% of us actually being infected and developing antibodies or acquiring that same level of protection through a vaccine before we're going to see it stop transmitting in our communities."

"I find that the discussions between opening and closing have almost taken on some kind of biblical meaning in that if you're not for closing, if you want to be open, that all you care about is your own personal rights, and you don't care about the potential risk you pose to others, what you pose if you do get infected and come into health care, what you'd mean for healthcare workers, etc. I think there are some of those people that are like (Vrock), but there are others that are just scared because they want to go back to work because they need a job, they need a job very badly. It's absolutely necessary to understand legitimate concerns about the need to get our economy back."

"I hear from public health colleagues who are irate that these protestors were in public settings without respiratory protection, without any kind of distancing, and they brought kids with them. Some of these medical doctors and nurses said 'these people should be made to sign a waiver that if they get infected as a result of this activity, they will not be cared for in a hospital by healthcare workers who are going to put their life on the line to try to take care of them.' I worry that we are dividing into two camps that are getting farther and farther apart. I wish that I knew how to approach this to try to de-escalate this, to minimize it. This is going to get a lot worse, and we need to hang together. If you think the risk is not a big risk, you will not be a red town or a blue town, you will be a COVID-colored town one day. It's going to find us, and that's when we're going to realize that we're all in this together."

I think it's time to open up but keep the mask and social distancing measures in place and hope it doesn't get bad enough to necessitate another lockdown.

JustAnEngineer wrote:

Dr. Osterholm on how we go forward from here, living with CoViD-19:
https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/pod ... episode-5_

"We have to understand we're going to open up. We cannot exist in a closed-down mode for how many many months it might take before we get a vaccine. At best, no more than 5% of the nation's population has been infected. If we're going to achieve herd immunity, requiring 60-70% of us actually being infected and developing antibodies or acquiring that same level of protection through a vaccine before we're going to see it stop transmitting in our communities."

"I find that the discussions between opening and closing have almost taken on some kind of biblical meaning in that if you're not for closing, if you want to be open, that all you care about is your own personal rights, and you don't care about the potential risk you pose to others, what you pose if you do get infected and come into health care, what you'd mean for healthcare workers, etc. I think there are some of those people that are like (Vrock), but there are others that are just scared because they want to go back to work because they need a job, they need a job very badly. It's absolutely necessary to understand legitimate concerns about the need to get our economy back."

"I hear from public health colleagues who are irate that these protestors were in public settings without respiratory protection, without any kind of distancing, and they brought kids with them. Some of these medical doctors and nurses said 'these people should be made to sign a waiver that if they get infected as a result of this activity, they will not be cared for in a hospital by healthcare workers who are going to put their life on the line to try to take care of them.' I worry that we are dividing into two camps that are getting farther and farther apart. I wish that I knew how to approach this to try to de-escalate this, to minimize it. This is going to get a lot worse, and we need to hang together. If you think the risk is not a big risk, you will not be a red town or a blue town, you will be a COVID-colored town one day. It's going to find us, and that's when we're going to realize that we're all in this together."

First. I don't think the doc mentioned me, pal. Second, this most definitely is not about me. I have a good paying job that is essential. It will continue to be essential. I can still do pretty much everything I want to do. My concern isn't for me; it's for the nation as a whole, for those who aren't as fortunate as me. This isn't bubonic plague, or HIV, or any other kind of highly deadly illness and it's high time we stop acting like it is, for the good of our society and way of life. If you don't get this,, you clearly haven't been paying attention, or you're being dishonest. Stop it.

His comments about us all being in this togetber are useless because it acts like this virus is Armageddon instead of a respiratory virus with less than a 1% fatality rate. It boggles my mind that we have allowed fear to do this to the country. This speaks volumes about the state of the citizenry. I mean holy crap...what the hell would things be like if we had a REAL threat on our hands, and 10% of the population was dying? Our ancestors would be downright ashamed of us if they could see us now. Bunch of damned cowards who'd trade in the greatest nation ever to grace the planet because they're scared of a minor virus. Disgraceful.

For the Vrocks: https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/04 ... -than-flu/

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronaviru ... e-who-says

As of Friday, the WHO said, "No study has evaluated whether the presence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 confers immunity to subsequent infection by this virus in humans."

What's more, data reported from the world's early COVID-19 hot spots, such as South Korea and China, have shown that a growing number of recovered patients appear to have suffered a relapse of the disease.

By mid-April, Korean health authorities said that just over 2% of the country's recovered patients were in isolation again after testing positive a second time. And in Wuhan, China, data from several quarantine facilities in the city, which house patients for observation after their discharge from hospitals, show that about 5% to 10% of patients pronounced "recovered" have tested positive again.

It remains unclear why this is occurring — whether it is a sign of a second infection, a reactivation of the remaining virus in the body or the result of an inaccurate antibody test.

That's a bummer. If antibodies are ineffective, they will need to find some drug that blocks the virus from replicating and then you keep taking that for the rest of your life. Or this could motivate everyone to get healthier as bad health conditions would mean a probable death sentence in case of COVID-19 infection. It could also reduce life expectancy by quite a bit in the genetically predisposed population. The digits of the year 2020 got me thinking. Is this supposed to be some grand balancing plan of God?

Restaurant air-conditioning and COVID-19 transmission: https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0764_article

Igor_Kavinski wrote:

Restaurant air-conditioning and COVID-19 transmission: https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0764_article

Yeah, saw that the other day. Worth noting that it still spread only to two nearby adjacent tables, so it wasn't a case of the air conditioning sucking it up and spewing it everywhere; it just caused the infectious particles to get blown a few feet further than they would've traveled otherwise.

If the restaurant had adopted a rule to operate the dining room at only 50% capacity, transmission likely would not have occurred, since nobody at more distant tables was infected.

just brew it! wrote:

I don't know that I'd call a quarter to half million deaths "small". (Which is what you'd get if it is 10x as deadly as the flu.)

Again it's worth repeating that the observed mortality rate is contingent on the healthcare system not being overwhelmed. Which is the main reason why shelter-in-place orders were put in place. It won't be 1% if the hospitals reach capacity, or the healthcare workforce gets stretched too thin due to COVID exposure when treating patients.

SecretMaster wrote:

just brew it! wrote:

I don't know that I'd call a quarter to half million deaths "small". (Which is what you'd get if it is 10x as deadly as the flu.)

Again it's worth repeating that the observed mortality rate is contingent on the healthcare system not being overwhelmed. Which is the main reason why shelter-in-place orders were put in place. It won't be 1% if the hospitals reach capacity, or the healthcare workforce gets stretched too thin due to COVID exposure when treating patients.

That's not why "they" start stating we are sheltering in place. It's advertised that you will not get sick and die if you shelter in place with some hints that the virus could come back or not down the road.

If sheltering in places purpose is really to just prevent the health care system from overloading and to buy time so that we can more effectively treat symptoms we should already be opening things up.

https://www.discovermagazine.com/enviro ... wer-of-one

We’re all sitting on the same blue planet. We’re all connected. Is that what you mean?

Dereck: It’s this big cycle: The wet markets and the consumption of bat feet and pangolins in China have created quite a lot of this problem, this worldwide problem that’s causing shutdowns, that’s causing businesses to close in Africa, that’s sending people back into the bushmeat and feeding off the environment again.

Now’s the time for all of us to be leaning forward, figuring out that we’ve all got to be taking care of the people first. Then we’ve got to make sure there are jobs and that ecosystems have integrity and remain intact.

Their views are certainly "interesting".

Igor_Kavinski wrote:

tfp wrote:

Igor_Kavinski wrote:

The digits of the year 2020 got me thinking. Is this supposed to be some grand balancing plan of God?

If split 2020 in half it is 20 and 20 and then if you add them together it's 40, the number of days Jesus spent fasting in the desert and the number of days in Lent.

Or 40 could mean the number of months before the virus leaves us for good. If it's 40 years, then God help us all.

Virus' don't really leave us for good, that ones that have (not counting what is sitting in labs some place) took many, many years to MOSTLY stamp out.

Latest testing is 14.9% for NY Metro area or ~3M people and 24.7% for NY City itself.

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/c ... s/2390949/

Infection rate is much high then confirmed and people with critical issues is much lower in percentage then advertised.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/27/worl ... xford.html
It's still early, but this is encouraging news. What gets lost behind the sham miracle cures touted by the quack-in-chief is that there are tens of thousands of scientists out there working as hard as they possibly can to understand and fight this disease.

Where is social distancing the easiest or hardest?
https://wallethub.com/edu/states-where- ... ult/73336/

Blood sugar levels and COVID-19: https://theconversation.com/blood-sugar ... ive-136592

High blood sugar increases the number of sugar-coated ACE2 receptors in the lungs of diabetic mice. So not only are the number of receptors greater, but also there are more sugars attached to them. This makes it easier for the virus to infect cells. When there is more insulin, or through diet or exercise, there is less sugar, so there are fewer ACE2 receptors and less sugar on each one, and this may reduce the amount of virus getting into the cell.

That's excellent info in the fight against COVID-19. It means that vulnerable people can protect themselves by preemptively reducing their sugar/carb intake or following a keto diet. It also means that seriously ill patients' prognosis could be improved by putting them under a supervised keto diet.

https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus ... heart.html

That is certainly a horrible way to die.

Vrock wrote:

Even then, in the absence of a vaccine or effective treatment I'd go for herd immunity to the greatest extent possible

You must not be reading the reports of the damage this virus is capable of doing. Damage to lungs and heart muscles even in asymptomatic victims. Trying to achieve herd immunity might also cause lifelong damage to a significant portion of the population, shaving years off their life expectancy.

Igor_Kavinski wrote:

You must not be reading the reports of the damage this virus is capable of doing. Damage to lungs and heart muscles even in asymptomatic victims. Trying to achieve herd immunity might also cause lifelong damage to a significant portion of the population, shaving years off their life expectancy.

So, what, we locked everyone in a box for years, in the hopes that we'll eventually get a vaccine, even though there's no guarantee we ever will?


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My question, in all this, is not to recriminate, but to explore what we should do from this point forward: Forget the past, why shouldn't a lot of place start opening things up now?

Glorious wrote:

My question, in all this, is not to recriminate, but to explore what we should do from this point forward: Forget the past, why shouldn't a lot of place start opening things up now?

I'm not against a gradual re-opening in a careful manner with complete monitoring of the situation. They are doing that now in the UAE.

SecretMaster wrote:

Vrock wrote:

Would love to know how it causes blood clots, which is my point. This is the do-all virus apparently.

Seems like the exact mechanism is unknown, but it is indeed a real phenomenon.

The mechanism might be the formation of Immune Complexes (ICs) that trigger pro-inflammatory fibrinolytic pathways leading to the formation of thrombii. Neprinol can be used to minimize the amount of fibrin that would take part in the formation of such clots.