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dragontamer5788
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 precautionary measures?

Thu Apr 23, 2020 12:39 pm

just brew it! wrote:
Still nowhere near herd immunity levels though. :(


Herd immunity with R0 of 2.0 would be 50% of the population. Herd immunity with R0 of 5.0 would be 80% of the population. You don't need 100% to get herd immunity, just enough to counteract the R0. R0 of 5 means that every infection spreads to 5 other people... on the average. But if 80% of people are immune, you only infect 1 other person, meaning the disease no longer grows. And that's herd immunity in a nutshell.

Hearing of potential 13% infection (and therefore ~13% immunity) is great news, no matter how you slice it. But it won't actually make a dent in slowing down the hospitalizations or ICU admissions of the health care system. Still far too small to actually mitigate the disease. Personally speaking, I'm worried about the false-positive rate (aka: specificity) of that antibody test. They probably have the numbers of specificity published somewhere, but I don't know how to search for the NYC-specific study.
 
dragontamer5788
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 precautionary measures?

Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:14 pm

Captain Ned wrote:
And an infection rate 10x reported statistics slides the decimal point on death rates one digit to the left. Lots less scary when you do that.


11,267 deaths in NYC. Lets say 15% were infected in a city of 8.4 Million, or a total of 1.26 Million infected as of this study. That's a mortality rate of 0.89%. We're not quite at "shifting the decimal point" yet. Its actually reasonably close to the initial 1% estimates that were gathered from the Diamond Princess cruise ship.
 
tfp
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 precautionary measures?

Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:16 pm

What do you mean "let's say"? Those are the estimates from an earlier post

I thought this was interesting.

Based on an anti-body study of 3,500 people an estimated 13.9% of New Yorkers (8,336,817 people total according to Google) probably have had the C19, that works out to 1.15M people. That is 10x what has been confirmed in New York City so far and about half of the reported world wide numbers.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/23/new-yor ... -says.html


But remember it's not about death rate...
 
dragontamer5788
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 precautionary measures?

Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:20 pm

tfp wrote:
What do you mean "let's say"? Those are the estimates from an earlier post

I thought this was interesting.

Based on an anti-body study of 3,500 people an estimated 13.9% of New Yorkers (8,336,817 people total according to Google) probably have had the C19, that works out to 1.15M people. That is 10x what has been confirmed in New York City so far and about half of the reported world wide numbers.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/23/new-yor ... -says.html


If we use those numbers instead, then the mortality rate is .98%, which is really close to the initial estimates of 1% mortality rate.

But remember it's not about death rate...


Hey, it was Capt. Ned who brought up the death rate this time. I'm just running the math. The 13.9% number is itself an estimate, a statistic. From the perspective of Ned's argument, we should round up to increase the denominator to make his argument look better. There's an error on the 13.9% number, the "truth" is going to be somewhere else. I typically try to move my assumptions closer to my debate opponent's assumptions.
 
tfp
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 precautionary measures?

Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:31 pm

Sure might as well round up on everything, they are doing so with the deaths right now.
 
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 precautionary measures?

Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:37 pm

Captain Ned wrote:
And an infection rate 10x reported statistics slides the decimal point on death rates one digit to the left. Lots less scary when you do that.

Yep, more than.

The population has been lied to, and gone like lambs to hide in their homes and screw their own lives for years to come. We'll be luck to avoid a second Great Depression, and for this?

  • NY population estimate (census): 19,453,561
  • Infection percentage estimate from new antibody study: 13.9%
  • Infected population estimate from new antibody study: 2,704,045
  • Confirmed cases: 263,754
  • Infection confirmation rate: 9.8%
  • Fatalities: 19,453
  • Reported fatality rate: 7.4%
  • Real fatality rate: 0.72%
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dragontamer5788
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 precautionary measures?

Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:39 pm

tfp wrote:
Sure might as well round up on everything, they are doing so with the deaths right now.


What death statistics are you relying upon to make your opinion?
 
Topinio
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 precautionary measures?

Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:41 pm

dragontamer5788 wrote:
What death statistics are you relying upon to make your opinion?

Can't answer for dragontamer5788 obviously, but they are clearly pushing up the deaths percentage.

Turns out that if you undercount the number of infections by an order of magnitude, you exagerate the death rate by an order of magnitude.

Who knew?
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dragontamer5788
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 precautionary measures?

Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:45 pm

Topinio wrote:
dragontamer5788 wrote:
What death statistics are you relying upon to make your opinion?

Can't answer for dragontamer5788 obviously, but they are clearly pushing up the deaths percentage.

Turns out that if you undercount the number of infections by an order of magnitude, you exagerate the death rate by an order of magnitude.

Who knew?


Everyone who knows the difference between CMR (case mortality rate) and IMR (infection mortality rate). IMR cannot be measured easily, but CMR is easily measured by simply calculating the number of confirmed cases vs the death rate.

I've been suggesting an IMR of near 1% due to the princess diamond cruise ship for basically this entire thread. Yes, I use CMR statistics occasionally, but I assumed that people around here are smart enough to know the difference.

Note: official death counts are normally revised upwards. We're undercounting COVID19 deaths right now. This is because we undercount all deaths initially. It takes a lot of effort to find out cause of deaths and come to the closer numbers after the fact. I expect, like many other disasters or pandemics, that the COVID19 death numbers will be revised upwards as we find people who died alone in their apartment, and then a month later it takes the Police + Autopsy report to recognize it as a death back in April or whatever.
Last edited by dragontamer5788 on Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Topinio
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 precautionary measures?

Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:52 pm

dragontamer5788 wrote:
Everyone who knows the difference between CMR (case mortality rate) and IMR (infection mortality rate). IMR cannot be measured easily, but CMR is easily measured by simply calculating the number of confirmed cases vs the death rate.

I've been suggesting an IMR of near 1% due to the princess diamond cruise ship for basically this entire thread. Yes, I use CMR statistics occasionally, but I assumed that people around here are smart enough to know the difference.

The general population, and the politicians, don't. That's why we're at where we're at.

I wasn't saying you'd said anything misleading or wrong, and noted the Diamond Princess data as obviously important and painted a decent picture of the infection fatality ratio. Same with China, estimated IFR there was 0.66% which is pretty close to that 0.72% for NY.

But people all think it's 7% not .7%
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dragontamer5788
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 precautionary measures?

Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:55 pm

Topinio wrote:
But people all think it's 7% not .7%


Then those people are wrong. But I haven't seen any posters here suggest anything higher than 3% for the USA. I know I pushed some statistics showing Italy's unusually high 8% or something death rate, but I used that as a demonstration of why I wanted to ignore Italy's numbers (instead of suggesting it as the truth).
 
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 precautionary measures?

Thu Apr 23, 2020 2:13 pm

Annual global mortality rate, all causes, is 0.75%

Assuming that deaths from this ran at 0.7% flat until literally everyone got it (a poor assumption) means the global mortality rate would be back at a level not seen since 1961.

7% OTOH, would be a level not seen in our lifetimes, a reasaon for panic and serious measures to curtain our freedoms, and worth killing the economy for.

To add: 14.5% 1.45% is really high. Unless you're in Lithuania, Bulgaria, Latvia, Ukraine, or a whole bunch of poor countries.
Last edited by Topinio on Fri Apr 24, 2020 2:16 am, edited 1 time in total.
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tfp
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 precautionary measures?

Thu Apr 23, 2020 2:36 pm

dragontamer5788 wrote:
tfp wrote:
Sure might as well round up on everything, they are doing so with the deaths right now.


What death statistics are you relying upon to make your opinion?


I don't mean death statistics, I mean "confirmed death". They are, at this time, counting deaths no matter the stated cause as C19 if the person tests positive for C19. While I do understand not wanting to miss a valid group and the numbers will get more accurate over time, this will over state the nominator and they are vastly understating the denominator.

dragontamer5788 wrote:
Topinio wrote:
But people all think it's 7% not .7%


Then those people are wrong. But I haven't seen any posters here suggest anything higher than 3% for the USA. I know I pushed some statistics showing Italy's unusually high 8% or something death rate, but I used that as a demonstration of why I wanted to ignore Italy's numbers (instead of suggesting it as the truth).


While this is all well and good we are making policy decisions, both parties, based on the inflated percentages not the more likely and (possibility?) statically back numbers. Not only that those decisions are in large part because that is what he public believes and they need to be handheld and made to feel better.
 
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 precautionary measures?

Thu Apr 23, 2020 2:43 pm

tfp wrote:
They are


There are many "they"s in here. There is the CDC, there are 50x States, and there is the Media. Although singular sources of information are standardized to some degree (CDC is self-consistent), it is inconsistent to use data across groups. That is to say, CDC's statistics are incompatible with NYC's statistics, which are incompatible with New York's statistics. Yeah, it sucks, but that's how reality works. You have to be consistent in your reporting, and the selection of data.

I mean "confirmed death".


https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page

Note that NYC's "confirmed deaths" do NOT count death certificate cause-of-death COVID19 statistics. The "confirmed deaths" is almost certainly a gross underestimation of the total people who have died in NYC due to COVID19. Not everyone is being tested yet, there is still a testing shortage.

I expect the "reality" of the situation is... that more people are dying than the current statistics suggest. At least when we're talking about NYC's official "confirmed death" counts.

What the CDC Reports as a death (ie: Cause of Death as reported by the doctors) would be roughly equivalent to NYC's Confirmed + Probably death count, which is closer to 15,000 deaths today. And the CDC deaths are probably undercounting, because it only counts the deaths that happen with a doctor nearby. As bodies are discovered in homes / apartments after-the-fact, the counts will absolutely go up.

inflated percentages


The numbers are actually deflated right now, because there's no way in hell we're actually counting all the deaths of this thing. Also note: it takes roughly 3 to 4 weeks to actually die from COVID19. Someone infected today won't actually die until the middle of May. The death-statistics will lag behind the reality... deaths will continue to get worse (because Late March / Early April was a period of exponential +35% growth of COVID infections).
Last edited by dragontamer5788 on Thu Apr 23, 2020 2:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 precautionary measures?

Thu Apr 23, 2020 2:50 pm

tfp wrote:
If it caused a blood clot in your lungs and it moved to your brain it could cause a stroke. It's not too unreasonable. How frequent it helps in healthy/young people is more interesting than a story about limited occurrences.

Would love to know how it causes blood clots, which is my point. This is the do-all virus apparently.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 precautionary measures?

Thu Apr 23, 2020 2:55 pm

It's the 5G. That's what's causing everything.

Seriously though, nobody really knows. You typically don't get sent to the ICU at all unless you're really sick, and so ICU patients generally aren't very mobile. It's the same reason that otherwise healthy people who frequently make long plane trips tend to be at a higher risk for blood clots also. Whether it's correlation or causation we don't know yet.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 precautionary measures?

Thu Apr 23, 2020 3:13 pm

Vrock wrote:
Would love to know how it causes blood clots, which is my point. This is the do-all virus apparently.


Seems like the exact mechanism is unknown, but it is indeed a real phenomenon.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04 ... brain-toes

How the virus attacks the heart and blood vessels is a mystery, but dozens of preprints and papers attest that such damage is common. A 25 March paper in JAMA Cardiology documented heart damage in nearly 20% of patients out of 416 hospitalized for COVID-19 in Wuhan, China. In another Wuhan study, 44% of 36 patients admitted to the ICU had arrhythmias.

The disruption seems to extend to the blood itself. Among 184 COVID-19 patients in a Dutch ICU, 38% had blood that clotted abnormally, and almost one-third already had clots, according to a 10 April paper in Thrombosis Research. Blood clots can break apart and land in the lungs, blocking vital arteries—a condition known as pulmonary embolism, which has reportedly killed COVID-19 patients. Clots from arteries can also lodge in the brain, causing stroke. Many patients have “dramatically” high levels of D-dimer, a byproduct of blood clots, says Behnood Bikdeli, a cardiovascular medicine fellow at Columbia University Medical Center.

“The more we look, the more likely it becomes that blood clots are a major player in the disease severity and mortality from COVID-19,” Bikdeli says.
 
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 precautionary measures?

Thu Apr 23, 2020 4:26 pm

Vrock wrote:
tfp wrote:
If it caused a blood clot in your lungs and it moved to your brain it could cause a stroke. It's not too unreasonable. How frequent it helps in healthy/young people is more interesting than a story about limited occurrences.

Would love to know how it causes blood clots, which is my point. This is the do-all virus apparently.


Given the information in this thread (and I'm not a doctor), my explanation is as follows.

Americans are not healthy in the default case. Start the assumption with Hypertension (130 mmHg or higher systolic) and/or Obesity, and suddenly the blood clots make a lot of sense. These people are probably already predisposed to get blood clots... what pushes them over the edge is some kind of stressful situation. Under normal conditions, these people wouldn't die.

But guess what? Strapping someone to a ventilator, while your own lungs malfunction (forcing an external machine to breath for you), is hardly a "normal situation". Add on 2-weeks of sitting still on a hospital bed, with your legs immobile the whole time, and its no surprise that blood clots develop, causing strokes.
 
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 precautionary measures?

Thu Apr 23, 2020 5:09 pm

dragontamer5788 wrote:
tfp wrote:
They are


There are many "they"s in here. There is the CDC, there are 50x States, and there is the Media. Although singular sources of information are standardized to some degree (CDC is self-consistent), it is inconsistent to use data across groups. That is to say, CDC's statistics are incompatible with NYC's statistics, which are incompatible with New York's statistics. Yeah, it sucks, but that's how reality works. You have to be consistent in your reporting, and the selection of data.


Well because the CDC lags weeks and that is not the number being used it's not them in this case. It would be NY or NYC as they are tagging anyone who had COV19 to be sorted out later, as I stated before. This will inflate the numbers after the processes was initiated.

dragontamer5788 wrote:
I mean "confirmed death".


https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page

Note that NYC's "confirmed deaths" do NOT count death certificate cause-of-death COVID19 statistics. The "confirmed deaths" is almost certainly a gross underestimation of the total people who have died in NYC due to COVID19. Not everyone is being tested yet, there is still a testing shortage.

I expect the "reality" of the situation is... that more people are dying than the current statistics suggest. At least when we're talking about NYC's official "confirmed death" counts.

What the CDC Reports as a death (ie: Cause of Death as reported by the doctors) would be roughly equivalent to NYC's Confirmed + Probably death count, which is closer to 15,000 deaths today. And the CDC deaths are probably undercounting, because it only counts the deaths that happen with a doctor nearby. As bodies are discovered in homes / apartments after-the-fact, the counts will absolutely go up.


I'd love to use CDC's numbers but they aren't what is being used in reporting all the time or the reporting doesn't reference WHERE the numbers are from.

The counts will also go down because of the over tagging policy as well, I don't know where we will land but it will take time for accurate data. That said the rate of under counting the dead will be smaller then the under counting the living who have had the virus. Based on the anti body study by much more then the confirmed cases we are making our decisions on.

dragontamer5788 wrote:
inflated percentages


The numbers are actually deflated right now, because there's no way in hell we're actually counting all the deaths of this thing. Also note: it takes roughly 3 to 4 weeks to actually die from COVID19. Someone infected today won't actually die until the middle of May. The death-statistics will lag behind the reality... deaths will continue to get worse (because Late March / Early April was a period of exponential +35% growth of COVID infections).


They are only deflated IFF the rate of under count of deaths is lower than the rate of under count of those of have had the virus. My bet is they are under counting the people who have had the virus and lived by a much greater number then those who have died.

Yes the curve, but does the number of dead increase by more than the number of people have had the virus and recover and I mean all the people. The people that take 3 to 4 weeks to die are a part of the forward looking predictive graphic. This should and make is, calculated using the predicted number of infections and this as seen with the first study in NYC is very under counted by a factor of 10. This difference in infected population could be and probably vastly different then reported in every major city/metro area.
 
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 precautionary measures?

Thu Apr 23, 2020 6:01 pm

dragontamer5788 wrote:
But guess what? Strapping someone to a ventilator, while your own lungs malfunction (forcing an external machine to breath for you), is hardly a "normal situation". Add on 2-weeks of sitting still on a hospital bed, with your legs immobile the whole time, and its no surprise that blood clots develop, causing strokes.


Except you're not immobile "the whole time". Lack of mobility is a well known risk factor for DVTs. That's when health care workers squish you into compression dressings or get out whatever else they need from their bag of tricks to help stop that from happening. The thing is, we're going against the natural workings of the human body on this, and they probably can't give you a full body ultrasound every 8 hours or something just in case.

The question is whether or not the virus is attacking blood vessels directly and screwing up the balance all on its own or if the clots are just the end result of other complication. We don't know.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 precautionary measures?

Thu Apr 23, 2020 6:25 pm

dragontamer5788 wrote:
Americans are not healthy in the default case. Start the assumption with Hypertension (130 mmHg or higher systolic) and/or Obesity, and suddenly the blood clots make a lot of sense. These people are probably already predisposed to get blood clots... what pushes them over the edge is some kind of stressful situation. Under normal conditions, these people wouldn't die.

But guess what? Strapping someone to a ventilator, while your own lungs malfunction (forcing an external machine to breath for you), is hardly a "normal situation". Add on 2-weeks of sitting still on a hospital bed, with your legs immobile the whole time, and its no surprise that blood clots develop, causing strokes.


Granted you aren't a doctor, but that's a pretty unsatisfying answer IMO.

Two additional links. WAPO had a story today on the issue of blood-clotting: https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2 ... ood-clots/

I think the whole article is useful for contextualizing the phenomenon, but some particularly relevant quotes:
Helen W. Boucher, an infectious-disease specialist at Tufts Medical Center, said there’s no reason to think anything is different about the virus in the United States. More likely, she said, the problem was more obvious to American doctors because of the unique demographics of U.S. patients, including large percentages with heart disease and obesity that make them more vulnerable to the ravages of blood clots. She also noted small but important differences in the monitoring and treatment of patients in ICUs in this country that would make clots easier to detect.


The body’s cardiovascular system often is described as a network of one-way streets that connect the heart to other organs. Blood is the transport system, responsible for moving nutrients to the cells and waste away from them. A common cold or a cut on the finger can lead to changes that help repair the damage, but when the body undergoes a more significant trauma, the blood can overreact, leading to an imbalance that can cause excessive clots or bleeding — and sometimes both...

Harlan Krumholz, a cardiac specialist at the Yale-New Haven Hospital Center, said no one knows whether blood complications are a result of a direct assault on blood vessels, or a hyperactive inflammatory response to the virus by the patient’s immune system. “One of the theories is that once the body is so engaged in a fight against an invader, the body starts consuming the clotting factors, which can result in either blood clots or bleeding. In Ebola, the balance was more toward bleeding. In covid-19, it’s more blood clots,” he said.


So health demographics of Americans are likely contributing to the higher number of observed moralities that have evidence of blood clotting, but again the biological mechanism of why, or how COVID-19, causes those clots is still not definitive. The hypothesis that clotting factors are being consumed in severe cases of COVID-19 is a plausible idea to me (as a layman).

The other link (pulled from the WAPO article) is a paper (just published) that really focused in on the issue of clotting. It's completely outside my discipline so a lot of it isn't really digestible to me, but there are two paragraphs that are relatively layman friendly.

http://www.onlinejacc.org/content/early ... 020.04.031

There are several ways in which the COVID-19 pandemic may affect the prevention and management of thrombotic and thromboembolic disease (hereafter collectively referred to as thrombotic disease for brevity). First, the direct effects of COVID-19 or the indirect effects of infection, such as through severe illness and hypoxia, may predispose patients to thrombotic events. Preliminary reports suggest that hemostatic abnormalities, including disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC), occur in patients affected by COVID-19 (7,8). Additionally, the severe inflammatory response, critical illness, and underlying traditional risk factors may all predispose to thrombotic events, similar to prior virulent zoonotic coronavirus outbreaks (Table 1) (9,10). Second, investigational therapies for treating COVID-19 may have adverse drug-drug interactions with antiplatelet agents and anticoagulants. Third, the pandemic, because of resource allocations or social distancing recommendations, may adversely affect the care of patients without COVID-19 but who present with thrombotic events. For example, (mis)perception that antithrombotic agents confer increased risk for contracting COVID-19, may lead to untoward interruption of anticoagulation by some patients.


It's a big picture paragraph, but another mention that traditional risk factors may predispose COVID-19 patients to blood clotting. But also interestingly, some of the treatments/therapies for COVID-19 might also lead to the undesired consequence of blood clotting.

Nevertheless, it is yet unknown whether these hemostatic changes are a specific effect of SARS-CoV-2 or are a consequence of cytokine storm that precipitates the onset of systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS), as observed in other viral disease (30-33). Another consideration which has not yet been investigated is that the hemostatic changes seen with COVID-19 infection are related to liver dysfunction (34). A recent study reported 3 cases with severe COVID-19 and cerebral infarction, one associated with bilateral limb ischemia, in the 11 setting of elevated antiphospholipid antibodies. Whether antiphospholipid antibodies play a major role in pathophysiology of thrombosis associated with COVID-19 requires further investigation (35)


Talking more specifically about mechanisms, they conjecture it could be related to the "cytokine storm" (the more technical term for the WAPO quote I linked), or possibly even related to liver dysfunction in COVID-19 patients.
 
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 precautionary measures?

Fri Apr 24, 2020 2:45 am

https://bgr.com/2020/04/21/coronavirus- ... d-19-case/

The study theorizes that the reason why women recover faster is that they have fewer ACE2 receptors to deal with. If ACE2 sounds familiar, that’s because that’s the receptor the SARS-CoV-2 binds to, with the lungs being the most affected region in the body. The novel coronavirus is a respiratory virus that thrives in the lungs, and that explains all the respiratory complications that follow.

But ACE2 receptors are also found in other organs, including the heart muscle, kidneys, GI tract, and testicles. The study says that the testicles are among the highest sites of ACE2 expression in three independent expression databases. Comparatively, there’s a minimal expression of ACE2 in ovaries.

This tiny difference may be vital in explaining why men need a longer time to clear the virus from their systems. The testes could be a viral reservoir where the virus might continue to replicate. The study needs more verification and more research might be required to prove the findings, as is the case for plenty of COVID-19 research right now since the disease is still so new. But the study does mention similar work from China, which demonstrated that men might exhibit testicular gonadal loss-of-function after infection. In other words, not only are your testicles going to hinder your recovery, but they might not even work properly during a novel coronavirus infection.
 
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 precautionary measures?

Fri Apr 24, 2020 4:30 am

SecretMaster wrote:
Talking more specifically about mechanisms, they conjecture it could be related to the "cytokine storm" (the more technical term for the WAPO quote I linked), or possibly even related to liver dysfunction in COVID-19 patients.


The cytokine storm is one thing I thought of also in conjunction with the blood clots. As for liver damage, I don't believe the ACE2 protein is expressed heavily in the liver. I'm not sure how the virus would damage it directly, but it could be damaged through the same kind of systemic immune response which causes the cytokine storm.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 precautionary measures?

Fri Apr 24, 2020 11:24 am

dragontamer5788 wrote:
tfp wrote:
Sure might as well round up on everything, they are doing so with the deaths right now.


What death statistics are you relying upon to make your opinion?

Probably because of statements like this from the IL department of public health:

https://week.com/2020/04/20/idph-direct ... lassified/

"If you were in hospice and had already been given a few weeks to live, and then you also were found to have COVID, that would be counted as a COVID death. It means technically even if you died of a clear alternate cause, but you had COVID at the same time, it's still listed as a COVID death. So, everyone who's listed as a COVID death doesn't mean that that was the cause of the death, but they had COVID at the time of the death." Dr. Ezike outlined.


It's almost like the government is making poor choices on purpose.
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Captain Ned
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 precautionary measures?

Fri Apr 24, 2020 11:37 am

Let me add this here as well (already on Slack channel):

https://www.dropbox.com/s/g28msjx2xt15q ... .xlsx?dl=0

Image
What we have today is way too much pluribus and not enough unum.
 
tfp
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 precautionary measures?

Fri Apr 24, 2020 12:48 pm

Captain Ned wrote:
Let me add this here as well (already on Slack channel):

https://www.dropbox.com/s/g28msjx2xt15q ... .xlsx?dl=0

Image


What happened in 2017 - 2018 and I wasn't I forced to stay at home?

Also I think the CDC numbers for the last week in 2019-2020 line will be revised up because CDC data lags per their website.
Last edited by tfp on Fri Apr 24, 2020 12:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Glorious
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 precautionary measures?

Fri Apr 24, 2020 12:51 pm

 
tfp
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 precautionary measures?

Fri Apr 24, 2020 12:54 pm

Glorious wrote:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017%E2%80%932018_United_States_flu_season


I thought so. Wouldn't social distancing have "solved" that or is it because we allowed all the old people to die in their nursing homes/hospice it wasn't a "big deal".

[edit]Yes I know it wasn't just old people and I am being flippant. The impacted population or would have been the same demographic as COV19 if not worse because more of the young would have been impacted.
Last edited by tfp on Fri Apr 24, 2020 12:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Captain Ned
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 precautionary measures?

Fri Apr 24, 2020 2:07 pm

tfp wrote:
Also I think the CDC numbers for the last week in 2019-2020 line will be revised up because CDC data lags per their website.

I'm only using weeks that show as complete.
What we have today is way too much pluribus and not enough unum.
 
tfp
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 precautionary measures?

Fri Apr 24, 2020 2:12 pm

Captain Ned wrote:
tfp wrote:
Also I think the CDC numbers for the last week in 2019-2020 line will be revised up because CDC data lags per their website.

I'm only using weeks that show as complete.


Interesting already a huge drop off.

I thought the CDC website said that the data could be weeks delayed maybe they only meant 2 weeks or that after 2 weeks change is limited or counted in a later week?

[Edit]From this page they are stating 1 to 8 weeks of delay. So i don't understand how date can be "complete" after 2 weeks.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
*Data during this period are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. This delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more, depending on the jurisdiction, age, and cause of death.

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