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Captain Ned
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 precautionary measures?

Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:57 am

Glorious wrote:
So, what, we locked everyone in a box for years, in the hopes that we'll eventually get a vaccine, even though there's no guarantee we ever will?

There has yet to be a successful vaccine against ANY coronavirus.
What we have today is way too much pluribus and not enough unum.
 
tfp
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 precautionary measures?

Tue Apr 28, 2020 1:09 pm

just brew it! wrote:
tfp wrote:
https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/14-12-2017-up-to-650-000-people-die-of-respiratory-diseases-linked-to-seasonal-flu-each-year

The flu kills up to 650K a year. It kills more middle aged and younger people than Covid, at least so far this year, and assuming you group with pneumonia it continues to do so. Do we shelter in place over the winter for the flu? Do we practice social distancing for the flu? No we don't. Everyone will see flu and pneumonia numbers drop this year because they are classified as Covid, it's already visible in the CDC data.

If the flu is a bench mark we are scaring the crap out of collective selves with a virus that based on the newer antibody number are more widely spread and much less dangerous then reported.

[edit]So did we do the wrong thing? I don't think so. Are we dragging it on too long now that we know more. Yes I think so.

650K is world-wide. Annual flu deaths in the US are comparable to the number killed by COVID-19 in US so far, and we are probably nowhere near done with COVID-19 yet.


I have seen numbers for projected deaths by August in the US are 74K, we aren't expect anywhere near 500K in the US. At one point the projection for wave 1 was 100k to 240K and that has moved down quite a bit. My understanding is that we are expecting, in the US, a little more than the flu or 2x flu deaths.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

I can't find any world wild estimates that are recent. The death rate listed by WHO at 3% is completely off based on the anti body testing. Swedens current rate is 0.022% right now based on deaths per 100k but they haven't reach herd immunity yet. I do love CNNs spin on things.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/28/europe/s ... index.html

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... eath-toll/
 
just brew it!
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 precautionary measures?

Tue Apr 28, 2020 1:22 pm

tfp wrote:
I have seen numbers for projected deaths by August in the US are 74K, we aren't expect anywhere near 500K in the US. At one point the projection for wave 1 was 100k to 240K and that has moved down quite a bit. My understanding is that we are expecting, in the US, a little more than the flu or 2x flu deaths.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

...and that projection assumes that fairly aggressive levels of mitigation remain in place, as indicated at the very top of the page.
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tfp
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 precautionary measures?

Tue Apr 28, 2020 1:47 pm

just brew it! wrote:
tfp wrote:
I have seen numbers for projected deaths by August in the US are 74K, we aren't expect anywhere near 500K in the US. At one point the projection for wave 1 was 100k to 240K and that has moved down quite a bit. My understanding is that we are expecting, in the US, a little more than the flu or 2x flu deaths.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

...and that projection assumes that fairly aggressive levels of mitigation remain in place, as indicated at the very top of the page.


Not exactly, for the US you have to click state by state to see what level of mitigation is implemented, the numbers do not assuming "fairly aggressive levels". Georgia, for example already shows it has been updated on April 27th to reflect that it is only implementing 4 of 6 rules. You can also see the website is predicting an upswing in deaths as well.

Government-mandated social distancing
As of our most recent update on April 27, 2020, Georgia had implemented 4 out of 6 social distancing measures. See our FAQ page for details.


That said those are the latest numbers and they look to estimate based on a change of State level policy for places like the US, or Fed level for places like the UK. I don't think we can assume anywhere near 500K because we just don't have the death rates and the latest estimates are trending that way. If we take Sweden as an example, and say they are only half way to herd immunity so instead of 22/100,000 deaths we have 44/100,000 deaths the US would hit a total of 150K deaths based on a 330M population still above the current projections.
 
JustAnEngineer
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 precautionary measures?

Tue Apr 28, 2020 7:16 pm

Animal transmission is still a (minor) concern:
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science ... oronavirus
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tfp
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 precautionary measures?

Tue Apr 28, 2020 8:49 pm

Once again additional data showing things aren't as bad as predicted.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-data-s ... dDwRRJ2fGI
 
Igor_Kavinski
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 precautionary measures?

Thu Apr 30, 2020 1:01 am

Finally a drug for COVID-19 treatment? https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/04 ... very-time/

Those receiving the drug had a mortality rate of 8.0 percent, while the placebo group was at 11.6 percent. The standard for statistical significance in these matters is a p-value of 0.05; the results here were just outside of that at a p-value of 0.059. As Fauci put it, "the mortality rate trended toward being better."


But a check for viral RNA in various samples showed no significant reduction in those receiving the drug—somewhat disappointing, as the drug is expected to work by blocking the virus' reproduction.


So a drug that barely works but isn't working the way it's theoretically supposed to work?

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/04 ... s-it-cost/

Finally, there's the question of how much that will cost. As of today, we don't know how much Gilead intends to charge for remdesivir in the US or elsewhere. In CEO Daniel O'Day's April letter that revealed the existing stockpile, he wrote that the company "is providing the entirety of this existing supply at no cost, to treat patients with the most severe symptoms of COVID-19. The 1.5 million individual doses are available for compassionate use, expanded access, and clinical trials and will be donated for broader distribution following any potential future regulatory authorizations."


That's generous of them but who wants to bet that they have a comprehensive plan ready to make billions after the initial stock runs out?
Last edited by Igor_Kavinski on Thu Apr 30, 2020 1:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
Redocbew
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 precautionary measures?

Thu Apr 30, 2020 1:13 am

The story is that the drug was showing results significantly better than placebo, and so the board overseeing things pulled the plug and "unblinded" the study before they had a chance to get much data on how the drug affects mortality.

Given how these threads have progressed so far, I guess I don't blame you for jumping over pretty much everything and going straight for the mortality stats, but yeah if these results hold than it's the opposite of a drug that "barely works".
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Igor_Kavinski
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 precautionary measures?

Thu Apr 30, 2020 7:59 am

 
Igor_Kavinski
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 precautionary measures?

Thu Apr 30, 2020 8:12 pm

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/04 ... s-confirm/

Test kits tainted with the virus? That's almost as bad or even worse than the Wuhan lab.
 
tfp
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 precautionary measures?

Fri May 01, 2020 1:11 am

Igor_Kavinski wrote:
https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/04/cdcs-failed-coronavirus-tests-were-tainted-with-coronavirus-feds-confirm/

Test kits tainted with the virus? That's almost as bad or even worse than the Wuhan lab.


But here's the thing, whoever used those test kits now have Coronavirus so the test results being positive is completely actuate!
 
Igor_Kavinski
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 precautionary measures?

Fri May 01, 2020 5:57 am

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-04- ... boost.html

According to their results, one layer of a tightly woven cotton sheet, combined with two layers of polyester-based chiffon—a sheer fabric often used in evening gowns—filtered out the most aerosol particles (80% to 99%, depending on particle size). Substituting the chiffon with natural silk or a polyester-cotton flannel, or simply using a cotton quilt with cotton-polyester batting, produced similar results.
 
Glorious
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 precautionary measures?

Fri May 01, 2020 6:31 am

The idea that big respiratory droplets are a huge vector is pretty sound, and yes, the idea that even simple masks would help obviate those is also strong.

It's just that it's hard to "test" this sort of stuff for numerous reasons, starting with ethics.

So, we don't really know, exactly. We just kind of hope and make guesses.

Science, ultimately, isn't really about certainty or even authority. It's about applied philosophy, process and sincerity.
 
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 precautionary measures?

Fri May 01, 2020 6:41 am

The problem is that nobody knows what's the real numbers are. I mean compare the number of COVID-19 cases in the US vs India - georank.org/covid/india/united-states do you believe that India with 1.3B population and extremely dense cities has only 35k cases? Nope, that's what they managed to detect. But the same is true for U.S. and other countries. Yes, 1st world countries' data is more accurate as their capabilities of testing way better, but still, that's just what they managed to detect. What is especially true for lucky young folks who might spread the virus without having symptoms themself and so not being tested. With such a level of uncertainty, only slow step by step unlocking is an option.
 
Captain Ned
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 precautionary measures?

Fri May 01, 2020 7:31 am

tfp wrote:
Igor_Kavinski wrote:
https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/04/cdcs-failed-coronavirus-tests-were-tainted-with-coronavirus-feds-confirm/

Test kits tainted with the virus? That's almost as bad or even worse than the Wuhan lab.


But here's the thing, whoever used those test kits now have Coronavirus so the test results being positive is completely actuate!

No, no, no. The nasal swab goes into a plastic pipette filled with the PCR reagents which is then placed in the test kit. The test kit contents never get into the tested individual; it just ensures a false-positive test.
What we have today is way too much pluribus and not enough unum.
 
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 precautionary measures?

Fri May 01, 2020 8:44 am

Glorious wrote:
The idea that big respiratory droplets are a huge vector is pretty sound, and yes, the idea that even simple masks would help obviate those is also strong.

CDC didn't seem to think so in March. :-?
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Igor_Kavinski
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 precautionary measures?

Fri May 01, 2020 8:48 am

Vrock wrote:
Glorious wrote:
The idea that big respiratory droplets are a huge vector is pretty sound, and yes, the idea that even simple masks would help obviate those is also strong.

CDC didn't seem to think so in March. :-?

Yeah. First the WHO, then the CDC. Sounds almost like a conspiracy that they failed to do their jobs when the world really needed them to.
 
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 precautionary measures?

Fri May 01, 2020 9:00 am

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-05- ... ovid-.html

Antiviral treatments, such as Remdesivir, may also prevent the progression of T cell exhaustion


Hmmm...so that's how this drug works and shortens the COVID-19 recovery time.
 
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 precautionary measures?

Fri May 01, 2020 9:16 am

Vrock wrote:
Glorious wrote:
The idea that big respiratory droplets are a huge vector is pretty sound, and yes, the idea that even simple masks would help obviate those is also strong.

CDC didn't seem to think so in March. :-?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mooVaG3uMvI
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 precautionary measures?

Fri May 01, 2020 9:21 am

 
Glorious
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 precautionary measures?

Fri May 01, 2020 9:49 am

Vrock wrote:
CDC didn't seem to think so in March.


I certainly remembering making the point that masks aren't remotely failsafe, if only because we're just so incapable of fastidiously using them correctly at all times. We just don't have, and basically sort of can't have, any really rigorous data on how effective the masks are.

But that just goes back to my larger point about how science isn't really about certainty and authority, so it's not easy to just say "duh use the science!" as if "science" has a set of ready-made policy prescriptions.
 
Vrock
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 precautionary measures?

Fri May 01, 2020 10:04 am

derFunkenstein wrote:
Vrock wrote:
Glorious wrote:
The idea that big respiratory droplets are a huge vector is pretty sound, and yes, the idea that even simple masks would help obviate those is also strong.

CDC didn't seem to think so in March. :-?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mooVaG3uMvI

Oh I like her.
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Igor_Kavinski
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 precautionary measures?

Sat May 02, 2020 8:46 pm

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/possible-rese ... 33338.html

Respiratory physician Dr David Darley says something peculiar happens to a small group of Covid-19 patients on day seven of their symptoms.

“Up until the end of that first week, they’re stable,” says Darley, a doctor with Sydney’s St Vincent’s Hospital. “And then suddenly, they have this hyper-inflammatory response. The proteins involved in that inflammation start circulating in the body at high levels.”

In these patients, the lungs begin to struggle. Blood pressure lowers. Other organs, including the kidneys, may begin to shut down. Blood clots form throughout the body. The brain and intestines may also be affected. Some suffer changes to their personality, suggesting brain damage.


A renowned intensive care specialist from Italy, Prof Luciano Gattinoni, said this type of clotting in respiratory diseases is “extremely unusual”.

The 75-year-old has been working in intensive care for 40 years, and said he has never seen anything like what is happening to the lungs of some Covid-19 patients. What is particularly baffling is patients are presenting with poor oxygenation but little lung damage. This type of presentation is more typical of patients suffering from altitude sickness than a viral infection, Gattignoni says. As a result, patients who are very sick may not feel like they’re really struggling to breathe – even as they’re being critically deprived of oxygen.


The problem is, mechanical ventilation in intensive care replaces the strength of the respiratory muscles. If patients are struggling to breathe but their lung structure is OK, this ventilation does little to help and in fact may prove harmful, Gattinoni said, because mechanical ventilation is invasive.

He said while only a small number of patients are severe enough to require ventilation, a significant proportion of those on ventilators die, continuing to show low blood oxygen levels despite mechanical assistance. Gattinoni said doctors must use ventilators only when needed, and at the right time. Getting this right can improve survival rates, he believes, and he thinks wrongly timed ventilation is why some intensive care units treating Covid-19 patients have higher death rates than others.
 
Igor_Kavinski
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 precautionary measures?

Tue May 05, 2020 10:50 am

 
DiMaestro
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 precautionary measures?

Wed May 06, 2020 11:44 pm

And not to be pendantic, but doesn't this thread fall under the 'no politics' bit now?
 
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 precautionary measures?

Thu May 07, 2020 12:39 am

DiMaestro wrote:
And not to be pendantic, but doesn't this thread fall under the 'no politics' bit now?

That would require the mods to care. Since the decimation of the site under its new ownership, they don't, as long as it doesn't get truly nasty.
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JustAnEngineer
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 precautionary measures?

Thu May 07, 2020 3:32 am

I split the politics out of this thread four different times, but then Vrock comes back.
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Igor_Kavinski
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 precautionary measures?

Thu May 07, 2020 5:34 am

JustAnEngineer wrote:
I split the politics out of this thread four different times, but then Vrock comes back.


Vrock T9000. Always back for more :D
 
Vrock
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 precautionary measures?

Thu May 07, 2020 6:53 am

JustAnEngineer wrote:
I split the politics out of this thread four different times, but then Vrock comes back.

Yeah, you totally didn't litter the thread with a bunch of left-wing propaganda multiple times. :roll:
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Captain Ned
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 precautionary measures?

Thu May 07, 2020 7:44 am

First: Forget it Jake, it's Chinatown.

Second: Kevin last logged in in 2014.
What we have today is way too much pluribus and not enough unum.

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