TR Forums

Glorious wrote:

So, what, we locked everyone in a box for years, in the hopes that we'll eventually get a vaccine, even though there's no guarantee we ever will?

just brew it! wrote:

tfp wrote:

https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/14-12-2017-up-to-650-000-people-die-of-respiratory-diseases-linked-to-seasonal-flu-each-year

The flu kills up to 650K a year. It kills more middle aged and younger people than Covid, at least so far this year, and assuming you group with pneumonia it continues to do so. Do we shelter in place over the winter for the flu? Do we practice social distancing for the flu? No we don't. Everyone will see flu and pneumonia numbers drop this year because they are classified as Covid, it's already visible in the CDC data.

If the flu is a bench mark we are scaring the crap out of collective selves with a virus that based on the newer antibody number are more widely spread and much less dangerous then reported.

[edit]So did we do the wrong thing? I don't think so. Are we dragging it on too long now that we know more. Yes I think so.

650K is world-wide. Annual flu deaths in the US are comparable to the number killed by COVID-19 in US so far, and we are probably nowhere near done with COVID-19 yet.

tfp wrote:

I have seen numbers for projected deaths by August in the US are 74K, we aren't expect anywhere near 500K in the US. At one point the projection for wave 1 was 100k to 240K and that has moved down quite a bit. My understanding is that we are expecting, in the US, a little more than the flu or 2x flu deaths.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

just brew it! wrote:

tfp wrote:

I have seen numbers for projected deaths by August in the US are 74K, we aren't expect anywhere near 500K in the US. At one point the projection for wave 1 was 100k to 240K and that has moved down quite a bit. My understanding is that we are expecting, in the US, a little more than the flu or 2x flu deaths.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

...and that projection assumes that fairly aggressive levels of mitigation remain in place, as indicated at the very top of the page.

Government-mandated social distancing
As of our most recent update on April 27, 2020, Georgia had implemented 4 out of 6 social distancing measures. See our FAQ page for details.

Those receiving the drug had a mortality rate of 8.0 percent, while the placebo group was at 11.6 percent. The standard for statistical significance in these matters is a p-value of 0.05; the results here were just outside of that at a p-value of 0.059. As Fauci put it, "the mortality rate trended toward being better."

But a check for viral RNA in various samples showed no significant reduction in those receiving the drug—somewhat disappointing, as the drug is expected to work by blocking the virus' reproduction.

Finally, there's the question of how much that will cost. As of today, we don't know how much Gilead intends to charge for remdesivir in the US or elsewhere. In CEO Daniel O'Day's April letter that revealed the existing stockpile, he wrote that the company "is providing the entirety of this existing supply at no cost, to treat patients with the most severe symptoms of COVID-19. The 1.5 million individual doses are available for compassionate use, expanded access, and clinical trials and will be donated for broader distribution following any potential future regulatory authorizations."

Igor_Kavinski wrote:

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/04/cdcs-failed-coronavirus-tests-were-tainted-with-coronavirus-feds-confirm/

Test kits tainted with the virus? That's almost as bad or even worse than the Wuhan lab.

According to their results, one layer of a tightly woven cotton sheet, combined with two layers of polyester-based chiffon—a sheer fabric often used in evening gowns—filtered out the most aerosol particles (80% to 99%, depending on particle size). Substituting the chiffon with natural silk or a polyester-cotton flannel, or simply using a cotton quilt with cotton-polyester batting, produced similar results.

tfp wrote:

Igor_Kavinski wrote:

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/04/cdcs-failed-coronavirus-tests-were-tainted-with-coronavirus-feds-confirm/

Test kits tainted with the virus? That's almost as bad or even worse than the Wuhan lab.

But here's the thing, whoever used those test kits now have Coronavirus so the test results being positive is completely actuate!

Glorious wrote:

The idea that big respiratory droplets are a huge vector is pretty sound, and yes, the idea that even simple masks would help obviate those is also strong.

Vrock wrote:

Glorious wrote:

The idea that big respiratory droplets are a huge vector is pretty sound, and yes, the idea that even simple masks would help obviate those is also strong.

CDC didn't seem to think so in March.

Antiviral treatments, such as Remdesivir, may also prevent the progression of T cell exhaustion

Vrock wrote:

Glorious wrote:

The idea that big respiratory droplets are a huge vector is pretty sound, and yes, the idea that even simple masks would help obviate those is also strong.

CDC didn't seem to think so in March.

Vrock wrote:

CDC didn't seem to think so in March.

derFunkenstein wrote:

Vrock wrote:

Glorious wrote:

The idea that big respiratory droplets are a huge vector is pretty sound, and yes, the idea that even simple masks would help obviate those is also strong.

CDC didn't seem to think so in March.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mooVaG3uMvI

Respiratory physician Dr David Darley says something peculiar happens to a small group of Covid-19 patients on day seven of their symptoms.

“Up until the end of that first week, they’re stable,” says Darley, a doctor with Sydney’s St Vincent’s Hospital. “And then suddenly, they have this hyper-inflammatory response. The proteins involved in that inflammation start circulating in the body at high levels.”

In these patients, the lungs begin to struggle. Blood pressure lowers. Other organs, including the kidneys, may begin to shut down. Blood clots form throughout the body. The brain and intestines may also be affected. Some suffer changes to their personality, suggesting brain damage.

A renowned intensive care specialist from Italy, Prof Luciano Gattinoni, said this type of clotting in respiratory diseases is “extremely unusual”.

The 75-year-old has been working in intensive care for 40 years, and said he has never seen anything like what is happening to the lungs of some Covid-19 patients. What is particularly baffling is patients are presenting with poor oxygenation but little lung damage. This type of presentation is more typical of patients suffering from altitude sickness than a viral infection, Gattignoni says. As a result, patients who are very sick may not feel like they’re really struggling to breathe – even as they’re being critically deprived of oxygen.

The problem is, mechanical ventilation in intensive care replaces the strength of the respiratory muscles. If patients are struggling to breathe but their lung structure is OK, this ventilation does little to help and in fact may prove harmful, Gattinoni said, because mechanical ventilation is invasive.

He said while only a small number of patients are severe enough to require ventilation, a significant proportion of those on ventilators die, continuing to show low blood oxygen levels despite mechanical assistance. Gattinoni said doctors must use ventilators only when needed, and at the right time. Getting this right can improve survival rates, he believes, and he thinks wrongly timed ventilation is why some intensive care units treating Covid-19 patients have higher death rates than others.

DiMaestro wrote:

And not to be pendantic, but doesn't this thread fall under the 'no politics' bit now?

JustAnEngineer wrote:

I split the politics out of this thread four different times, but then Vrock comes back.

JustAnEngineer wrote:

I split the politics out of this thread four different times, but then Vrock comes back.