SecretMaster wrote:Starfalcon wrote:Yeah the real **** will hit the fan when the hospitals are full and cant take anymore people, then things get rough. Plus once doctors and nurses start getting sick also and cant work, then hospitals become a bad place to be. That is basically happening in italy now, no room at the hospital or any way to get treatment.
Yeah I think this is a key point with respect to the mortality rate. Without the availability of modern medicine and facilities, the mortality rate is going to be higher. Without doing a cursory Google check, my suspicion is that the infamous Spanish flu would have had a significantly (statistically) improved mortality rate had our knowledge of medicine and medical facilities been up to modern standards. If the medical system becomes compromised, which is a very real possibility and the impetus behind the seemingly draconian measures, the arguments about the low mortality rate become moot. I shudder to think what will happen to countries in Africa and South America if this gets established (and it likely will). Iran might be good proxy for what it would look like.
H1N1
IS the 1918 Spanish Flu. Just looking at the mortality rate of H1N1 2009 vs Spanish Flu 1918 is all you need to know about the difference with modern technology.
In any case, your assertion is correct. With modern tech + hospitals, we pushed the Spanish Flu / H1N1's mortality rate to fractions-of-a-fraction of a percent. Like 0.02% or something really small.
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With regards to the mortality rate when hospitals are swamped... note that Italy currently has an 8% mortality rate due to COVID19. (
AND a significantly higher testing proportion than the USA). I don't consider Italy to be "representative" of a US-like mortality rate however, because they are out of hospital beds / ICU facilities. The US does have more hospital beds than Italy IIRC, but exponential growth means that any difference in hospital beds is made up with just a few days of growth.
Italy is an incredible outlier among countries. A relatively old population, one of the earliest hit, and a failure of its health care system to cope with the crisis. Nonetheless, it is one of the few "Western" countries with similar culture to us (more similar than China / Korea at least). I'm not so pessimistic to assume Italy's statistics are representative of the USA, but they serve as a warning for how bad things could get if we don't take action.