Personal computing discussed

Moderators: renee, Flying Fox, morphine

How much faster (on average) is 8 core Zen vs. FX 8370K

Poll ended at Sat Dec 31, 2016 11:02 am

Krogoth Percent (0 - 10%)
1 (1%)
10 - 20%
7 (8%)
20 - 30%
25 (27%)
30 - 40%
29 (32%)
40 - 50%
17 (19%)
Anti-Krogoth Percent: 50 - 60%
2 (2%)
Wasson's Revenge Percent: 60%+
10 (11%)
 
Total votes: 91
 
LostCat
Minister of Gerbil Affairs
Posts: 2102
Joined: Thu Aug 26, 2004 6:18 am
Location: Alphanumeric symbols.

Re: I'm Bored: Let's Predict Zen's Performance.

Mon Oct 31, 2016 10:47 am

Glorious wrote:
It's like the ship is sinking and there isn't enough headroom for air unless they can break through a bulkhead.

They just paid down around 700m in long term debt.  55m a year they won't have to worry about anymore.
Their product offerings, and OEM support have been improving every year since...around Kaveris launch.  I can't speak for finances but they are definitely improving now.
I used to think they were done, but it's not looking like it.
Meow.
 
whm1974
Emperor Gerbilius I
Posts: 6043
Joined: Fri Dec 05, 2014 5:29 am

Re: I'm Bored: Let's Predict Zen's Performance.

Mon Oct 31, 2016 11:03 am

Kretschmer wrote:
The best case scenario is that Zen flops so badly that the GPU division gets spun off into a viable unit and the CPU unit shuts down.  Hey, I have a Freesync monitor and want an upgrade. :D

I strongly disagree. I for one hopes that AMD succeeds with Zen and does so big time.
 
Kretschmer
Gerbil XP
Posts: 462
Joined: Sun Oct 19, 2008 10:36 am

Re: I'm Bored: Let's Predict Zen's Performance.

Mon Oct 31, 2016 11:51 am

LostCat wrote:
Glorious wrote:
It's like the ship is sinking and there isn't enough headroom for air unless they can break through a bulkhead.

Their product offerings, and OEM support have been improving every year since...around Kaveris launch. 

Kaveri was early 2014. CPUs have been stagnant; high-end GPUs either punched below their die size/BOM costs (Fuji) or were massively delayed (Vega).
I'm impressed at what AMD creates on a shoe string, but they lack the scale to really gain a foothold at the high end of x86.  They might be able to eke out an existence following their hot-big-cheap CPU strategy, but that's getting tougher and tougher in an ultrathin/mobile world.
 
synthtel2
Gerbil Elite
Posts: 956
Joined: Mon Nov 16, 2015 10:30 am

Re: I'm Bored: Let's Predict Zen's Performance.

Mon Oct 31, 2016 12:21 pm

I don't think the economics work so badly as all that. I think with the performance they're likely to get, they'd have a tough time selling desktop parts for anything north of $500, but how good or bad that is depends on the die size. There are a couple of tricks here: Intel spends a lot of space on iGPUs, and we know from the dGPU market that a $500 chip doesn't have to be all that small to turn a profit (and that's even the same process). Due to the first, if a Zen core is similar in footprint to an Intel core, 8C GPU-less Zen might not be too much of a bigger die than 4C GT2 Kaby Lake. Due to the second, we can see that a sub-200 mm2 chip selling for $400 should be able to turn some excellent marginal profits.
 
LostCat
Minister of Gerbil Affairs
Posts: 2102
Joined: Thu Aug 26, 2004 6:18 am
Location: Alphanumeric symbols.

Re: I'm Bored: Let's Predict Zen's Performance.

Mon Oct 31, 2016 12:27 pm

Kretschmer wrote:
Kaveri was early 2014.

And that was the point they had barely anything on the market, so OEM sales were most likely pretty **** for at least another year before Kaveri.

(Personally I don't recall seeing much of Kabini or Temash either, but can't really remember how it was before that.)
Meow.
 
Topinio
Gerbil Jedi
Posts: 1782
Joined: Mon Jan 12, 2015 9:28 am
Location: London

Re: I'm Bored: Let's Predict Zen's Performance.

Mon Oct 31, 2016 2:11 pm

srg86 wrote:
CPU Clock speed L2 cache size Price
Athlon 64 X2 4400+ 2.2GHz 1024KB $581


I ... had forgotten that. Had one, too, paired with a GeForce 6600 GT then a 7900 GTX then a Radeon HD 3850.

(Pretty much i7-6850K range pricing level, but at the time it was only ~£360 inc. VAT, which now will "only" get me a Core i7-6700K.)
Desktop: E3-1270 v5, X11SAT-F, 32GB, RX 580, 500GB P1, 250GB MX500, 4TB 7E8, Xonar DGX, XL2730Z + L22e-20
HTPC: i5-2500K, DH67GD, 4GB, GT 1030, 250GB MX500, 1.5TB ST1500DL003, KDL32EX503U + KA220HQ
Laptop: MacBookPro15,2
 
NovusBogus
Graphmaster Gerbil
Posts: 1408
Joined: Sun Jan 06, 2013 12:37 am

Re: I'm Bored: Let's Predict Zen's Performance.

Mon Oct 31, 2016 2:21 pm

Topinio wrote:
(Pretty much i7-6850K range pricing level, but at the time it was only ~£360 inc. VAT, which now will "only" get me a Core i7-6700K.)

Not to mention it's 2005 dollars...suddenly Broadwell-E pricing looks much less egregious, eh? :)
 
Topinio
Gerbil Jedi
Posts: 1782
Joined: Mon Jan 12, 2015 9:28 am
Location: London

Re: I'm Bored: Let's Predict Zen's Performance.

Mon Oct 31, 2016 2:41 pm

NovusBogus wrote:
Topinio wrote:
(Pretty much i7-6850K range pricing level, but at the time it was only ~£360 inc. VAT, which now will "only" get me a Core i7-6700K.)

Not to mention it's 2005 dollars...suddenly Broadwell-E pricing looks much less egregious, eh? :)

Hmm, yes, according to http://www.usinflationcalculator.com/ $581 in 2005 is $718 in 2016 so that level of part would be £706 versus £360 back then!

If only we'd done this before I talked myself out of the E3-1585 v5 ...
Desktop: E3-1270 v5, X11SAT-F, 32GB, RX 580, 500GB P1, 250GB MX500, 4TB 7E8, Xonar DGX, XL2730Z + L22e-20
HTPC: i5-2500K, DH67GD, 4GB, GT 1030, 250GB MX500, 1.5TB ST1500DL003, KDL32EX503U + KA220HQ
Laptop: MacBookPro15,2
 
Glorious
Gerbilus Supremus
Posts: 12063
Joined: Tue Aug 27, 2002 6:35 pm

Re: I'm Bored: Let's Predict Zen's Performance.

Mon Oct 31, 2016 3:37 pm

synthtel2 wrote:
I don't think the economics work so badly as all that. I think with the performance they're likely to get, they'd have a tough time selling desktop parts for anything north of $500, but how good or bad that is depends on the die size.


But that's the thing, Intel doesn't sell "desktop" parts for north of $400 (and more like $350). Which is why Ryu Connor talked about the X99 platform (which is prosumer/workstation), as that's the only place where there's enough breathing room to even make some real money.

Realistically, AMD isn't going to be able to charge what Intel does at the i7-6700k to i3 level unless it is better, which it seems it won't be, to a virtual certainty.
 
synthtel2
Gerbil Elite
Posts: 956
Joined: Mon Nov 16, 2015 10:30 am

Re: I'm Bored: Let's Predict Zen's Performance.

Mon Oct 31, 2016 6:31 pm

I expect Intel's marginal profits on a 122 mm2 chip selling for $170-330 have no shortage of breathing room, seeing as chips that size go for more like $100-150 in the dGPU space (and that's with a bunch of other hardware attached).

At $400-450, comparisons between 8C Zen and 7700K/7800K/7850K/Xeon E3s should be fair-ish, depending on what you're looking for (if performance is in the range consensus indicates here). At $1000, it would get soundly beaten by a 7900K at almost everything, and the market would be vanishingly small (as in too small to recoup R&D costs, even if the marginal profits are stratospheric). If $400 is enough for sizable marginal profits, which I'm sure it is given what Polaris 10 goes for, then it's not a big deal.

Also, when I said desktop, I meant as opposed to server. I intended prosumer and workstation stuff to be included under my statement.
 
ronch
Graphmaster Gerbil
Posts: 1127
Joined: Mon Apr 06, 2009 7:55 am

Re: I'm Bored: Let's Predict Zen's Performance.

Tue Nov 01, 2016 1:32 am

I think, even if Zen matches the best Intel parts, it may still have trouble in the market. At this point I think most folks already have all the performance they're gonna need for a while, whether or not they're demanding users. Demanding users also will buy Zen only if it offers substantially better performance that justifies the expense. And if they've been holding back buying a high end CPU because they've been waiting for Zen, they won't necessarily buy it unless it's very competitive or substantially cheaper, or they're really just pro-AMD. I think Zen should've come out years ago when there were still more tricks in the book to make chips faster and people were more eager to upgrade. Now they may have missed the boat. Of course there are those who simply couldn't afford to buy new parts until now and may be willing to get AMD but I reckon those folks aren't numerous enough to float AMD's boat. Finally, Intel's marketing probably spends more than the entire R&D costs for Zen. Outside our little village here, how many kids have actually heard of it and would be convinced to buy Zen (or AMD in general) instead of Intel, which is a brand you see prominently everywhere?

Even without factoring the seemingly low clock speeds of Zen ES chips out there Zen will have an uphill battle. I'm not even sure using the FX™ moniker would be a good idea, as the brand may have been tarnished by the Bulldozer lineup (I actually said this back in October 2011, saying the FX brand may not be suitable for truly impressive chips in the future). Don't get me wrong, I'd LOVE to see AMD bounce back but the odds are apparently stacked against them. And oh yeah, GF.
NEC V20 > AMD Am386DX-40 > AMD Am486DX2-66 > Intel Pentium-200 > Cyrix 6x86MX-PR233 > AMD K6-2/450 > AMD Athlon 800 > Intel Pentium 4 2.8C > AMD Athlon 64 X2 4800 > AMD Phenom II X3 720 > AMD FX-8350 > RYZEN?
 
ronch
Graphmaster Gerbil
Posts: 1127
Joined: Mon Apr 06, 2009 7:55 am

Re: I'm Bored: Let's Predict Zen's Performance.

Tue Nov 01, 2016 1:37 am

NEC V20 > AMD Am386DX-40 > AMD Am486DX2-66 > Intel Pentium-200 > Cyrix 6x86MX-PR233 > AMD K6-2/450 > AMD Athlon 800 > Intel Pentium 4 2.8C > AMD Athlon 64 X2 4800 > AMD Phenom II X3 720 > AMD FX-8350 > RYZEN?
 
Mr Bill
Gerbil Jedi
Posts: 1815
Joined: Mon Jan 21, 2002 7:00 pm
Location: Colorado Western Slope
Contact:

Re: I'm Bored: Let's Predict Zen's Performance.

Tue Nov 01, 2016 12:15 pm

Its all about the pentiums, baby

I voted 40% or higher. Because the architect has been a winner many times.
X6 1100T BE | Gigabyte GA-990FXA-UD3 AM3+ | XFX HD 7870 | 16 GB DDR3 | Samsung 830/850 Pro SSD's | Logitech cherry MX-brown G710+ | Logitech G303 Daedalus Apex mouse | SeaSonic SS-660XP 80+ Pt | BenQ 24' 1900x1200 IPS | APC Back-UPS NS-1350 | WinXP64 Pro
 
Vhalidictes
Gerbil Jedi
Posts: 1813
Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2005 2:32 pm
Location: Paragon City, RI

Re: I'm Bored: Let's Predict Zen's Performance.

Tue Nov 01, 2016 12:53 pm

Mr Bill wrote:
Its all about the pentiums, baby

I voted 40% or higher. Because the architect has been a winner many times.

Reading through this page, something occurred to me. If AMD Zen doesn't have a iGPU, it might end up smaller / more space-efficient than the recent Intel cores that all include at least a pathetic attempt at one. Going without could be a cheap and easy way to reduce die size.

Of course if the Zen design is a Fusion design then it's going to need to deal with more power draw / heat / die size and in that case it's going to be a worse solution than Cannon Lake.
 
just brew it!
Administrator
Posts: 53977
Joined: Tue Aug 20, 2002 10:51 pm
Location: Somewhere, having a beer

Re: I'm Bored: Let's Predict Zen's Performance.

Tue Nov 01, 2016 1:01 pm

Vhalidictes wrote:
Reading through this page, something occurred to me. If AMD Zen doesn't have a iGPU, it might end up smaller / more space-efficient than the recent Intel cores that all include at least a pathetic attempt at one. Going without could be a cheap and easy way to reduce die size.

Of course if the Zen design is a Fusion design then it's going to need to deal with more power draw / heat / die size and in that case it's going to be a worse solution than Cannon Lake.

My understanding is that the Zen design is supposed to be "all of the above". There will be Zen APUs for the budget and mobile segments, Zen standalone desktop CPUs (no IGP) for the performance and power user market, and Zen Opterons for the datacenter.
Nostalgia isn't what it used to be.
 
chuckula
Gold subscriber
Minister of Gerbil Affairs
Topic Author
Posts: 2109
Joined: Wed Jan 23, 2008 9:18 pm
Location: Probably where I don't belong.

Re: I'm Bored: Let's Predict Zen's Performance.

Tue Nov 01, 2016 1:31 pm

Yeah, we've heard that one before with Bulldozer vs. consumer-grade Sandy Bridge parts. Didn't work out too well then.
However, the literal core size of a Zen part might be relatively small compared to a Skylake core. But chips are a whole lot more than just the core. If what AMD has told us is true, then an 8 core Zen part will have 20 MB of L2 + L3 cache total (about 21 MB when you factor in L1 cache too). 21 MB of SRAM cache assuming 6-transistor cells per-bit and ignoring all the control logic that is needed to make it work consumes about 1.06 Billion transistors right there. A full 4 core Skylake part has about 9.25 MB of SRAM cache for L1 --> L3, which comes out to 466 million transistors.
4770K @ 4.7 GHz; 32GB DDR3-2133; Officially RX-560... that's right AMD you shills!; 512GB 840 Pro (2x); Fractal Define XL-R2; NZXT Kraken-X60
--Many thanks to the TR Forum for advice in getting it built.
 
wingless
Gerbil XP
Posts: 391
Joined: Sun Jun 10, 2007 6:38 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

Re: I'm Bored: Let's Predict Zen's Performance.

Tue Nov 01, 2016 3:39 pm

Apple has chosen Zen for their upcoming products. I doubt Zen will suck as bad as some of you seem to want it to. It'll be acceptable in our eyes; maybe not the fastest, but acceptable overall.
Intel Core i7 2600K | 16GB DDR3-2133 | ASUS P8Z77-V Pro | Silverstone 750W | ASUS Strix GTX 980 OC | ASUS Xonar DSX/S.M.S.L. M2 USB DAC | Samsung 840 Pro | A bunch of HDDs and a lot of TBs.
 
chuckula
Gold subscriber
Minister of Gerbil Affairs
Topic Author
Posts: 2109
Joined: Wed Jan 23, 2008 9:18 pm
Location: Probably where I don't belong.

Re: I'm Bored: Let's Predict Zen's Performance.

Tue Nov 01, 2016 3:41 pm

wingless wrote:
Apple has chosen Zen for their upcoming products.


Citation of wild speculation asserted as proven fact needed, and no the fact that Apple happens to be using a low-end consumer GPU from AMD is not an indicator of Zen being used in any Apple products whatsoever.
4770K @ 4.7 GHz; 32GB DDR3-2133; Officially RX-560... that's right AMD you shills!; 512GB 840 Pro (2x); Fractal Define XL-R2; NZXT Kraken-X60
--Many thanks to the TR Forum for advice in getting it built.
 
just brew it!
Administrator
Posts: 53977
Joined: Tue Aug 20, 2002 10:51 pm
Location: Somewhere, having a beer

Re: I'm Bored: Let's Predict Zen's Performance.

Tue Nov 01, 2016 4:02 pm

chuckula wrote:
wingless wrote:
Apple has chosen Zen for their upcoming products.

Citation of wild speculation asserted as proven fact needed, and no the fact that Apple happens to be using a low-end consumer GPU from AMD is not an indicator of Zen being used in any Apple products whatsoever.

Yeah, at best this "news" seems to consist of rumors and speculation. It's certainly possible, but it isn't plausible IMO. It seems pretty unlikely that Apple would commit before seeing real-world performance and power usage of production parts, especially given AMD's track record with CPUs in recent years.
Nostalgia isn't what it used to be.
 
Redocbew
Minister of Gerbil Affairs
Posts: 2313
Joined: Sat Mar 15, 2014 11:44 am

Re: I'm Bored: Let's Predict Zen's Performance.

Tue Nov 01, 2016 4:50 pm

chuckula wrote:
Citation of wild speculation asserted as proven fact needed, and no the fact that Apple happens to be using a low-end consumer GPU from AMD is not an indicator of Zen being used in any Apple products whatsoever.

Posts like that are what you get for creating a thread like this.   :P
But yeah, obviously that one requires a truckload of RDF to take seriously. I'm not even sure for what product that would make sense.
Do not meddle in the affairs of archers, for they are subtle and you won't hear them coming.
 
Vhalidictes
Gerbil Jedi
Posts: 1813
Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2005 2:32 pm
Location: Paragon City, RI

Re: I'm Bored: Let's Predict Zen's Performance.

Tue Nov 01, 2016 5:06 pm

Redocbew wrote:
chuckula wrote:
Citation of wild speculation asserted as proven fact needed, and no the fact that Apple happens to be using a low-end consumer GPU from AMD is not an indicator of Zen being used in any Apple products whatsoever.

Posts like that are what you get for creating a thread like this.   :P
But yeah, obviously that one requires a truckload of RDF to take seriously. I'm not even sure for what product that would make sense.

It would probably make sense for a Macbook or low-end iMac... assuming that Apple intends to start making any of those again.
 
Glorious
Gerbilus Supremus
Posts: 12063
Joined: Tue Aug 27, 2002 6:35 pm

Re: I'm Bored: Let's Predict Zen's Performance.

Tue Nov 01, 2016 5:08 pm

new mac mini? /ducks
 
Vhalidictes
Gerbil Jedi
Posts: 1813
Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2005 2:32 pm
Location: Paragon City, RI

Re: I'm Bored: Let's Predict Zen's Performance.

Tue Nov 01, 2016 5:11 pm

Glorious wrote:
new mac mini? /ducks

Why the need to duck? It's true, a new Mac Mini would be nice, but Apple is now the iPhone company. 

Which is awesome in the short term, but that road leads to irrelevance at best, being bought by Amazon.com for pennies per share in 2022 (to help build the new attempt at a Fire Phone) at worst.

You don't need to believe me, just look up the Wikipedia page for Research in Motion (Blackberry Limited). Or Nokia. Your pick.
 
Glorious
Gerbilus Supremus
Posts: 12063
Joined: Tue Aug 27, 2002 6:35 pm

Re: I'm Bored: Let's Predict Zen's Performance.

Tue Nov 01, 2016 5:15 pm

Ah, no, I just wanted to spin the rumor wheel.
 
Topinio
Gerbil Jedi
Posts: 1782
Joined: Mon Jan 12, 2015 9:28 am
Location: London

Re: I'm Bored: Let's Predict Zen's Performance.

Tue Nov 01, 2016 7:05 pm

Kaveri, Carrizo and Bristol Ridge all fitted within the Mac mini's historical CPU TDP range of 23-35 W, but none were worthy of replaing the Intel CPUs (Kaveri launched with a 2 y.o. Ivy Bridge in the Mac mini, dual- and quad-core, but wasn't good enough even with its iGPU and OpenCL; Carrizo and Bristol Ridge both failed to surplant dual-core Haswell -- which was 2 y.o. when Bristol Ridge shipped).

If the Raven Ridge implementation of Zen in 1H'17 could get reasonably close to the IPC of Kaby Lake in that TDP window, Apple would get to choose between the two and Intel would just offer Apple a 30-35 W quad-core version for basically no money.

If the Mac mini is not actually dead yet...
Desktop: E3-1270 v5, X11SAT-F, 32GB, RX 580, 500GB P1, 250GB MX500, 4TB 7E8, Xonar DGX, XL2730Z + L22e-20
HTPC: i5-2500K, DH67GD, 4GB, GT 1030, 250GB MX500, 1.5TB ST1500DL003, KDL32EX503U + KA220HQ
Laptop: MacBookPro15,2
 
Vhalidictes
Gerbil Jedi
Posts: 1813
Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2005 2:32 pm
Location: Paragon City, RI

Re: I'm Bored: Let's Predict Zen's Performance.

Wed Nov 02, 2016 11:51 am

Topinio wrote:
Kaveri, Carrizo and Bristol Ridge all fitted within the Mac mini's historical CPU TDP range of 23-35 W, but none were worthy of replaing the Intel CPUs (Kaveri launched with a 2 y.o. Ivy Bridge in the Mac mini, dual- and quad-core, but wasn't good enough even with its iGPU and OpenCL; Carrizo and Bristol Ridge both failed to surplant dual-core Haswell -- which was 2 y.o. when Bristol Ridge shipped).

If the Raven Ridge implementation of Zen in 1H'17 could get reasonably close to the IPC of Kaby Lake in that TDP window, Apple would get to choose between the two and Intel would just offer Apple a 30-35 W quad-core version for basically no money.

If the Mac mini is not actually dead yet...

The BOM is important. Especially for lower-end hardware. It's really a case of whether it makes more sense / costs more to have an Intel CPU and separate GPU vs a AMD APU.

I agree that the main reason that AMD hasn't gotten a design win is low CPU performance, so if/when that gets better, Apple would benefit from the generally better graphics performance of an APU.
 
LostCat
Minister of Gerbil Affairs
Posts: 2102
Joined: Thu Aug 26, 2004 6:18 am
Location: Alphanumeric symbols.

Re: I'm Bored: Let's Predict Zen's Performance.

Wed Nov 02, 2016 3:36 pm

I'm kinda wondering if Metal performance is anything like DX12 and Vulkan (where AMD has often had the advantage.)  I haven't really looked into it, but I was surprised that Polaris parts got into Apple kit.
Meow.
 
hansmuff
Gerbil
Posts: 15
Joined: Mon May 17, 2010 7:00 pm
Contact:

Re: I'm Bored: Let's Predict Zen's Performance.

Wed Nov 02, 2016 5:33 pm

Zen's performance won't topple the charts. As much as people love to bash Intel, there's only so much to gain right now.

So AMD made a choice that IMO is incredibly smart: give enthusiasts something they will get excited about like 8c16t with good platform features and instruction set extensions at a reasonable price. No GPU on those parts because nobody wants them; push power usage down. I believe the performance will be exactly what AMD said it will be, no more and no less.
 
LostCat
Minister of Gerbil Affairs
Posts: 2102
Joined: Thu Aug 26, 2004 6:18 am
Location: Alphanumeric symbols.

Re: I'm Bored: Let's Predict Zen's Performance.

Wed Nov 02, 2016 5:34 pm

Still meaningless, but hey numbers.
http://wccftech.com/new-amd-zen-blender-benchmarks/
Meow.
 
anotherengineer
Gerbil Jedi
Posts: 1677
Joined: Fri Sep 25, 2009 1:53 pm
Location: Northern, ON Canada, Yes I know, Up in the sticks

Re: I'm Bored: Let's Predict Zen's Performance.

Wed Nov 02, 2016 5:52 pm

One question out of curiosity.

When ##% IPC gets thrown around, is that in general for everything, or is there a specific industry benchmark that's an accepted standard to say, yep that's a 35% IPC improvement, regardless of other benchmarks??  Would one of the SPEC benchmarks be it?

Reason I ask, is because for cinebench, we do see the 8370 do well in it for max threads typically (not single).  http://techreport.com/review/26996/amd- ... reviewed/6
Life doesn't change after marriage, it changes after children!

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests
GZIP: On