Personal computing discussed

Moderators: renee, Flying Fox, morphine

 
blastdoor
Gerbil First Class
Topic Author
Posts: 181
Joined: Fri Apr 08, 2005 4:12 pm

Intel Earnings

Fri Oct 25, 2019 7:22 am

https://www.anandtech.com/show/15030/in ... rd-results

The good news for Intel is that despite the initial setbacks for 10 nm, they have stated that 10 nm yields are actually ahead of their internal expectations for this point in its lifecycle, which should help alleviate some of the backlog the company has been facing with production assuming the can use the improved yields to transition more of their lineup over to 10 nm a bit quicker. Intel has also stated that despite the years lost on 10 nm, they are moving back to a 2 to 2.5 year process cadence, with 7 nm on track for their GPU lineup in 2021.


This is what passes for "good news" at Intel these days?

First, it seems to me that nobody should describe Intel as "ahead of schedule" when it comes to 10nm.

Second, I'm not aware of any evidence that 10nm will be used for anything other than quad core parts anytime soon. Where are the big Xeons? At best, they might be able to move more mobile production to 10nm, freeing up some 14+++ capacity for other things.

Third, I don't see how touting the arrival of a currently nonexistent product (their GPU) on 7nm is an endorsement of that process. It sounds to me like they are starting with a VERY low volume product on that process. Hardly an endorsement.
 
just brew it!
Gold subscriber
Administrator
Posts: 53518
Joined: Tue Aug 20, 2002 10:51 pm
Location: Somewhere, having a beer

Re: Intel Earnings

Fri Oct 25, 2019 8:16 am

Gotta put a positive spin on it somehow to appease the shareholders.
Nostalgia isn't what it used to be.
 
JustAnEngineer
Gold subscriber
Gerbil God
Posts: 19052
Joined: Sat Jan 26, 2002 7:00 pm
Location: The Heart of Dixie

Re: Intel Earnings

Tue Nov 05, 2019 6:25 am

blastdoor wrote:
I thought Moore's Law was dead, but maybe it's just dead at Intel?
It's pining for the fjords of Santa Clara.

https://www.techpowerup.com/260821/inte ... n-from-amd
btarunr wrote:
Intel CFO George Davis in an interview with Barron's commented on the company's financial health, and some of the reasons behind its rather conservative gross margin guidance looking forward to at least 2023. Intel's current product stack is moving on to the company's 10 nm silicon fabrication process in a phased manner. The company is allocating 10 nm to mobile processors and enterprise processors, while brazening it out with 14 nm on the client-desktop and HEDT platforms until they can build 10 nm desktop parts. AMD has deployed its high-IPC "Zen 2" microarchitecture on TSMC's 7 nm DUV process, with plans to go EUV in the coming months.


https://www.barrons.com/articles/intel- ... 1572840766
Barron's wrote:
Intel’s gross margin is down significantly year-over-year. Where do you see future gross profit margins going with the new manufacturing node cadence of every 2 to 2.5 years? (Intel has stated it intends to move to next generation chip manufacturing technologies at a quicker pace.)
Intel CFO George Davis wrote:
We’re still keenly focused on gross margin. Everything from capital efficiency to the way we’re designing our products. What we’ve said though, the delay in 10 nanometer means that we’re going to be a little bit disadvantaged on unit cost for a period of time. We actually gave guidance for gross margin out in 2021 to help people understand. 2023 is the period that we were ultimately guiding [when] we’re going to see very strong revenue growth and margin expansion. We’ve got to get through this period where we have the 10 nanometer being a little bit late [as] we’re not optimized on a node that we’re on. But [by] then we’re moving to a two to two and a half year cadence on the next nodes. So we’re pulling in the spending on 7 nanometer, which will start up in the second half of 2021 because we think it’s the right thing to do competitively. So we’re making the investment now that makes us just a little less efficient, and that’s reflected in gross margin.


Barron's wrote:
My industry contacts are saying AMD’s new Rome server chips are getting good traction with customers. Can you comment on the competitive landscape over the next couple of years against AMD’s chip lineup and Taiwan Semiconductor’s chip manufacturing technology?
Intel CFO George Davis wrote:
We said we expect to have heightened competition over the next 18 to 24 months. And our outlook reflects that. Our view on the nature of that competition and impact hasn’t really changed since we gave [our] longer term forecast in May.
i7-9700K, NH-D15, Z390M Pro4, 32 GiB, RX Vega64, Define Mini-C, SSR-850PX, C32HG70+U2407, RK-9000BR, MX518
 
Igor_Kavinski
Gerbil Elite
Posts: 868
Joined: Fri Dec 22, 2006 2:34 am

Re: Intel Earnings

Tue Nov 05, 2019 6:49 am

Intel should just bite the bullet and look into using TSMC "just in case". Might take them a few years to adapt their designs to TSMC's process but better that than risk heading into Bermuda Triangle with their "world-class" semiconductor manufacturing.
 
roncat
Gerbil First Class
Posts: 125
Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2016 8:29 am

Re: Intel Earnings

Tue Nov 05, 2019 7:27 am

Igor_Kavinski wrote:
Intel should just bite the bullet and look into using TSMC "just in case". Might take them a few years to adapt their designs to TSMC's process but better that than risk heading into Bermuda Triangle with their "world-class" semiconductor manufacturing.


Yep, and the Russian and Chinese government should just use Facebook to run all their systems, and the US should use Huawei equipment exclusively.
 
K-L-Waster
Gerbil XP
Posts: 489
Joined: Thu Feb 12, 2015 8:10 pm
Location: Hmmm, I was *here* a second ago...

Re: Intel Earnings

Tue Nov 05, 2019 7:39 am

I do find it interesting that everyone here treats a quarter with $6B NET revenue as just another step to extinction.

For perspective, it's only recently that AMD has managed to bring in more than that as GROSS revenue for a full year.

Once again, the purpose of a company is to make money for the shareholders. Full stop. Which strategy they use to make that money isn't critical -- the only critical thing is that it actually make money.

Sure, nothing they've released in the past 15 months is all that interesting to most of us (I'm certainly not interested in anything in their current product stack), but that in no way means they're about to roll over and die. In the grand scheme of things, we're just not that important to the CPU market...
Main System: i7-8700K, ASUS ROG STRIX Z370-E, 16 GB DDR4 3200 RAM, MSI GTX 1080 TI, 1 TB CRUCIAL MX500, Corsair 550D

HTPC: I5-4460, ASUS H97M-E, 8 GB RAM, GTX 970, CRUCIAL 256GB MX100, SILVERSTONE GD09B
 
Igor_Kavinski
Gerbil Elite
Posts: 868
Joined: Fri Dec 22, 2006 2:34 am

Re: Intel Earnings

Tue Nov 05, 2019 7:42 am

roncat wrote:
Igor_Kavinski wrote:
Intel should just bite the bullet and look into using TSMC "just in case". Might take them a few years to adapt their designs to TSMC's process but better that than risk heading into Bermuda Triangle with their "world-class" semiconductor manufacturing.


Yep, and the Russian and Chinese government should just use Facebook to run all their systems, and the US should use Huawei equipment exclusively.


AMD is doing that so why can't Intel? AMD isn't a US company?
 
Igor_Kavinski
Gerbil Elite
Posts: 868
Joined: Fri Dec 22, 2006 2:34 am

Re: Intel Earnings

Tue Nov 05, 2019 7:46 am

K-L-Waster wrote:
Sure, nothing they've released in the past 15 months is all that interesting to most of us (I'm certainly not interested in anything in their current product stack), but that in no way means they're about to roll over and die. In the grand scheme of things, we're just not that important to the CPU market...


The issue is that Intel's downward spiral might allow AMD to rest on their laurels. Innovation will suffer and that will impact the minority that is us. I remember things in the CPU space were pretty boring before Zen.
 
K-L-Waster
Gerbil XP
Posts: 489
Joined: Thu Feb 12, 2015 8:10 pm
Location: Hmmm, I was *here* a second ago...

Re: Intel Earnings

Tue Nov 05, 2019 7:56 am

Igor_Kavinski wrote:
K-L-Waster wrote:
Sure, nothing they've released in the past 15 months is all that interesting to most of us (I'm certainly not interested in anything in their current product stack), but that in no way means they're about to roll over and die. In the grand scheme of things, we're just not that important to the CPU market...


The issue is that Intel's downward spiral might allow AMD to rest on their laurels. Innovation will suffer and that will impact the minority that is us. I remember things in the CPU space were pretty boring before Zen.


What downward spiral? They've just posted their largest quarterly profit in company history.

Sure, they've done it selling boring chips for laptops and servers, but that's hardly a sign of impending doom.
Main System: i7-8700K, ASUS ROG STRIX Z370-E, 16 GB DDR4 3200 RAM, MSI GTX 1080 TI, 1 TB CRUCIAL MX500, Corsair 550D

HTPC: I5-4460, ASUS H97M-E, 8 GB RAM, GTX 970, CRUCIAL 256GB MX100, SILVERSTONE GD09B
 
Igor_Kavinski
Gerbil Elite
Posts: 868
Joined: Fri Dec 22, 2006 2:34 am

Re: Intel Earnings

Tue Nov 05, 2019 9:23 am

K-L-Waster wrote:
What downward spiral?

Downward spiral in terms of technological superiority. If they are stuck on old manufacturing processes, they get to have a lower transistor budget than AMD. There's a limit to how many innovative performance enhancing techniques they can cram into that budget before AMD is able to outdo them with sheer number of transistors. It's their future outlook that looks bleak right now, not their current financial performance.
 
JustAnEngineer
Gold subscriber
Gerbil God
Posts: 19052
Joined: Sat Jan 26, 2002 7:00 pm
Location: The Heart of Dixie

Re: Intel Earnings

Tue Nov 05, 2019 9:29 am

Margins are down. They’re still better than AMD’s, but the trend is negative. Most importantly for management, the stock price has underperformed.

The highest margin CPUs are the server products. For price, power and performance, 7 nm EPYC CPUs are clearly superior to Intel’s 14 nm Xeons.
i7-9700K, NH-D15, Z390M Pro4, 32 GiB, RX Vega64, Define Mini-C, SSR-850PX, C32HG70+U2407, RK-9000BR, MX518
 
Igor_Kavinski
Gerbil Elite
Posts: 868
Joined: Fri Dec 22, 2006 2:34 am

Re: Intel Earnings

Tue Nov 05, 2019 9:32 am

JustAnEngineer wrote:
Margins are down. They’re still better than AMD’s, but the trend is negative. Most importantly for management, the stock price has underperformed.

The highest margin CPUs are the server products. For price, power and performance, 7 nm EPYC CPUs are clearly superior to Intel’s 14 nm Xeons.


Thank you.
 
Igor_Kavinski
Gerbil Elite
Posts: 868
Joined: Fri Dec 22, 2006 2:34 am

Re: Intel Earnings

Tue Nov 05, 2019 10:26 am

https://www.theinquirer.net/inquirer/ne ... ta-centres

These slides could be the catalyst pushing other companies to consider Epyc seriously.
 
K-L-Waster
Gerbil XP
Posts: 489
Joined: Thu Feb 12, 2015 8:10 pm
Location: Hmmm, I was *here* a second ago...

Re: Intel Earnings

Tue Nov 05, 2019 1:28 pm

None of which is fatal if you're still selling everything you can put out the door.

https://wccftech.com/intel-cpu-shortages-were-expected-to-be-ending-soon-but-major-pc-oem-execs-say-they-are-here-to-stay/
Main System: i7-8700K, ASUS ROG STRIX Z370-E, 16 GB DDR4 3200 RAM, MSI GTX 1080 TI, 1 TB CRUCIAL MX500, Corsair 550D

HTPC: I5-4460, ASUS H97M-E, 8 GB RAM, GTX 970, CRUCIAL 256GB MX100, SILVERSTONE GD09B
 
Igor_Kavinski
Gerbil Elite
Posts: 868
Joined: Fri Dec 22, 2006 2:34 am

Re: Intel Earnings

Tue Nov 05, 2019 1:50 pm

Intel could always give up on the CPU business, sell their x86 license off to nVidia and become a GPU company first and foremost.
 
just brew it!
Gold subscriber
Administrator
Posts: 53518
Joined: Tue Aug 20, 2002 10:51 pm
Location: Somewhere, having a beer

Re: Intel Earnings

Tue Nov 05, 2019 1:52 pm

lolwut
Nostalgia isn't what it used to be.
 
Igor_Kavinski
Gerbil Elite
Posts: 868
Joined: Fri Dec 22, 2006 2:34 am

Re: Intel Earnings

Tue Nov 05, 2019 2:04 pm

just brew it! wrote:
lolwut

I only tell what my shiny crystal ball shows...
 
Xolore
Gold subscriber
Gerbil
Posts: 22
Joined: Wed Jan 23, 2019 7:27 pm

Re: Intel Earnings

Tue Nov 05, 2019 5:21 pm

It might be a little too shiny.
 
Captain Ned
Gold subscriber
Global Moderator
Posts: 27972
Joined: Wed Jan 16, 2002 7:00 pm
Location: Vermont, USA

Re: Intel Earnings

Tue Nov 05, 2019 5:26 pm

Xolore wrote:
It might be a little too shiny.

And it might be a metal ass.
What we have today is way too much pluribus and not enough unum.
 
Igor_Kavinski
Gerbil Elite
Posts: 868
Joined: Fri Dec 22, 2006 2:34 am

Re: Intel Earnings

Thu Nov 07, 2019 1:43 am

Igor_Kavinski wrote:
Intel could always give up on the CPU business, sell their x86 license off to nVidia and become a GPU company first and foremost.


Wow. Turns out Intel is doing exactly that, except not just GPU but other things too. Guess they are tired and bored of trying to eke out 5% to 10% performance gains from their CPU architectures: https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2019/10 ... ess-model/
 
blastdoor
Gerbil First Class
Topic Author
Posts: 181
Joined: Fri Apr 08, 2005 4:12 pm

Re: Intel Earnings

Thu Nov 07, 2019 11:18 am

Igor_Kavinski wrote:
Igor_Kavinski wrote:
Intel could always give up on the CPU business, sell their x86 license off to nVidia and become a GPU company first and foremost.


Wow. Turns out Intel is doing exactly that, except not just GPU but other things too. Guess they are tired and bored of trying to eke out 5% to 10% performance gains from their CPU architectures: https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2019/10 ... ess-model/


I love this quote:

The slide that really drives this commitment home comes from Q2's investor meeting that explicitly shows the company moving from a "protect and defend" strategy to a growth strategy


I'll believe it when I see it. Protect and Defend has been Intel's MO for 30 years. It's also funny that they cite 5g modems after their big belly flop in developing 5g modems for apple. I know, I know -- they're allegedly focusing now on the "internet of things". Good luck competing in that market with the ARM guys.

Intel's 30 year schtick has been x86+process lead = $$.

How do they expect to make their sky high margins in a world where x86 is irrelevant and TSMC has the process lead?

Refusing to fab iPhone SOCs for Apple may have been the biggest mistake any Intel exec has ever made -- maybe bigger than Itanium + Netburst.

I'm not saying Intel is doomed. But their 60% margins are.
 
Waco
Gold subscriber
Grand Gerbil Poohbah
Posts: 3217
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2009 4:14 pm
Location: Los Alamos, NM

Re: Intel Earnings

Thu Nov 07, 2019 12:32 pm

Well, they aren't getting rid of the CPU, they're just wanting to make it more of a SoC. I get that, and the market has been shifting that way for years even in the server space.
Desktop: X570 Gaming X | 3900X | 32 GB | Alphacool Eisblock Radeon VII | Heatkiller R3 | Samsung 4K 40" | 1 TB SX8200 Pro + 2 TB 660p + 2 TB SATA SSD
NAS: 1950X | Designare EX | 32 GB ECC | 7x8 TB RAIDZ2 | 8x2 TB RAID10 | FreeNAS | ZFS | LSI SAS
 
Krogoth
Gerbil Elder
Posts: 5838
Joined: Tue Apr 15, 2003 3:20 pm
Location: somewhere on Core Prime
Contact:

Re: Intel Earnings

Thu Nov 07, 2019 3:40 pm

Intel's halcyon days are gone and probably will never come back. Intel's CPU division is going back to 1980s and early 1990s where it actually had stiff competition. Intel's biggest nemesis isn't AMD, it is ARM and emerging Chinese semiconductor firms.
Gigabyte Z390 AORUS-PRO Coffee Lake R 9700K, 2x8GiB of G.Skill DDR4-3600, Sapphire RX Vega 64, Corsair CX-750M V2 and Fractal Define R4 (W)
Ivy Bridge 3570K, 2x4GiB of G.Skill RIPSAW DDR3-1600, Gigabyte Z77X-UD3H, Corsair CX-750M V2, and PC-7B
 
just brew it!
Gold subscriber
Administrator
Posts: 53518
Joined: Tue Aug 20, 2002 10:51 pm
Location: Somewhere, having a beer

Re: Intel Earnings

Thu Nov 07, 2019 11:18 pm

Krogoth wrote:
Intel's biggest nemesis isn't AMD, it is ARM and emerging Chinese semiconductor firms.

I'd argue that the biggest threat to Intel's datacenter business (their bread and butter, as desktop PCs wane in importance) is AMD. But AMD is currently reaping the indirect benefits of TSMC's aggressive process improvements, which have been largely driven by the needs of smartphone vendors using ARM chips. So you're simultaneously both right and wrong. :wink:
Nostalgia isn't what it used to be.

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests
GZIP: On