Very Interesting and ton of potential, but I do not see 4K units seeing commercial channels for at a least five years. The current generation units are barely catching on right now and it will take a number of years from them to reach critical mass.
5 years, are you serious? The whole industry will be onto something else in 5 years! I give it 2-3 years MAX for widespread availability. MAYBE 4 years for mainstream pricing. FIVE YEARS to see commercial channels? You're insane. Have you just missed the past 5 years and how much has changed? The last 10 years? Sure it's slowing down, but not to the degree that you're inferring.
Yes, that is typically that amount of time for something like the new generation of VR headsets to catch on if they ever do. IMO, their biggest problem is trying to appeal to the mainstream market. At this stage, they are nothing more than a fancy novelty toy for geeks and hardcore hobbyists.
Look how long it took for 2Megapxiel displays to become commonplace and 4 Megapixel displays to a lesser extent? Almost a decade. SSDs took a while before hitting critical mass. They existed back in 80s, but the cost of flash memory made it cost-prohibitive for mainstream market. It wasn't after many node shrinks and several other advances in flash media that allow SSDs to become affordable to mainstream during early 2000s. First-generation SSDs had a number of aching issues that were ironed out in second and third-generation units. Multi-core CPUs took a while before becoming commonplace and mainstream software to take advantage of them.
VR headsets faced their own set of technology hurdles that will have to overcome in order to get widespread adoption.
Not much has fundamentally changed in the computing world in the past five years. Just more miniaturization (CPUs and form factors) and scaling-up existing designs (GPU/SSDs). A sharp contrast to the rapid growth seen throughout the late 80s into the early 2000s.
Last edited by Krogoth
on Wed Oct 23, 2013 5:49 am, edited 1 time in total.
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