AMD has learned a lot about power efficiency over the last 3 years, and it is slowly starting to show up in their chips. Intel and Nvidia do have the lead in this area. But AMD will get very close to them over the next 2 years.
As far as money goes, so far for Intel, tablets and phones have been a multi-Billion dollar bottomless sink hole. The design wins they have managed to get are so few and far between, that its going to pretty much take a miracle for them to reach profitability in the tablet and/or phone markets. But since Intel has incredibly deep pockets, you can almost never count them out. They also have some of the best chip designers on the planet. 5 more years, and Intel could be a huge player in that market. Their x86/x64 chips will keep them afloat for decades to come though.
AMD probably saved itself by getting the gaming console contracts with MS and Sony. That gives AMD some breathing room to work on getting the power reductions into new chips and start working on more wins for those products. And by AMD not trying to lead the world into 20nm and smaller tech this time, they will save huge amounts of money. They still were not profitable in this last quarter, but the losses seem to be shrinking. If they keep executing on a timely manner over the next 2 years, they may well become a money making entity. Compute is an area where I think AMD is going to make fortunes over the next 5 years. Their NextGen compute technology is very efficient, and they are putting it into as many products as they can, as fast as they can, ranging from sub-$100 consumer chips all the way up into their high end boards.
Nvidia is a cash cow. They have been smart, and they have been lucky. They decided to focus on power a good 2 to 3 years before AMD did. They were pretty much forced to by producing GPU's that you could grill steaks on, but sometimes thats what it takes to wake a company up. They've built chips specifically aimed at the table and phone markets, but with mixed responses from OEMs. But their high end computing products have worked out very well for them.
Microsoft has been the biggest loser in the tablet and phone business. 3 full versions of Windows Phone, and they have less than 3% market share. Metro was and will continue to be a complete disaster for them. People have had years now to look at metro, and they have soundly rejected it on every platform. And yet Microsoft keeps pushing it. Once the horse is dead, bury it. Painting the back end and trotting it back out again is tantamount to putting lipstick on a pig. No matter how much lipstick you put on metro, it will still be a dead pig. Windows 9 will go over better on the desktop, but phones and tablets are not going to change enough to make a difference. Heads have already rolled at Microsoft over Windows 8, and I predict that even more heads will roll before someone has the finally has the balls to kill off Metro. Once that happens, everything about tablets and phones for Microsoft becomes a humongous question mark.
Chip makers all over the work are working on new chips for the mobile and handheld markets. I think we can assume that for the most part, ARM chips will continue to rule the roost. But new chips will constantly be trying to chip away at the ARM lead, and it is inevitable that some of those will take some market share away from ARM. But this will happen slowly and I don't see any huge changes here over the next 5 years.
Its a wide open world out there. With optical chips apparently nearing release from a British company, and quantum computing seemingly on the horizon, there are going to be a lot of challenges for the companies that have been leading the industry. And tons of opportunity for new companies with fresh ideas and technologies.