defaultluser wrote:Yup. Those perpetually falling discrete graphics card shipments have finally started rising again.
Well, that's enough to demonstrate I'm wrong about Y-o-Y, but it is still an awfully small peg to hang the hat of "several more years until prices stabilize" on.
defaultluser wrote:The spikes in retail card demand (month-to-month) are incredibly unstable, but there's clearly more demand than can be met.
It's not even month to month though. Things were completely stable a month ago in regards to 1070s, now, basically this week, they are double the price.
There's more demand than can be met *TODAY*, next quarter, next month, next week, who knows?
defaultluser wrote:I was with you and thought miners were a complete joke, until the last year of zero availability OF GDDR5 NVIDIA CARDS. A GPU maker that has FIVE TIMES the production capacity of AMD couldn't keep up with miner demand for the entire year.
I don't think the miners are a joke, so I don't know where you are coming from with that...?
I also don't know where "last year zero availability" for "Nvidia GDDR5" comes from. I just told you, I almost bought one at $450 a month ago.
I mean that stuck in my memory because I almost did it, but more vaguely I can still recall it being roughly the same price for months before that: I don't buy hardware without thinking about it for awhile first. I occasionally throw stuff together on newegg just to keep a rough idea of what "new" will cost me, and I wasn't remotely surprised by 1070 at ~450. I'd hazard that it was likely around that for the entire Q4 of 2017, but I don't have any evidence of that off-handedly.
Even previous to that, I think it was around 600 for a custom one in mid-summer? I remember grumbling about that
https://techreport.com/news/32710/rx-ve ... spot-check
Techreport wrote:However, GeForce GTX 1070 prices are also in the midst of a re-entry of late. Surveying all of Newegg's GTX 1070 offerings shows that it's possible to get one of those cards for as little as $400 right now, just $20 over Nvidia's suggested price at launch. Most custom GTX 1070s seem to top out at about $450 at the moment, so buyers have a wide range
https://www.pcworld.com/article/3202193 ... upply.html
Mid-October 18, 2017: 400-450
Very Late November: 400-450 (as I probably picked a custom one like TR did)
And the grumbling was in August where people were like "you might as well get a 1080" in reference to 1070, so it would seem that we were in the 500-600 range at that point.
defaultluser wrote:And if we haven't sated demand after a year, expect another year or two at the very least. Despite shipping a few million cards more than last year, there's lots of room for that graph to grow.
There wasn't a mismatch of demand/supply at (roughly) MSRP just 40 days ago. Today, you cannot find a 1070 anywaynear MRSP. I'm not taking 50-80 over the launch price, I am talking double MRSP+50-80 that.
I mean, this just happened, to say it yet again?