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superjawes
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Re: NFL 2019

Fri Jul 12, 2019 8:33 am

Yeah, I'm 100% behind full-time officials. At the bare minimum they should make referees full time. That would ensure that every crew is being led by someone doing it as a career. Hopefully this is just a short-term thing. 2019 is the last year of the officiating CBA, and this move is clearly a direct result of that.

As for League revenue, I think they have options to maintain current levels. Their DirecTV deal needs to DIAF so they can replace it with a dish-free streaming option. I would buy in if they made it streamable and cut the price to $100 for the season. And even then, I don't need every single game for that price. I really just want prime time and all of my team's games. Maybe it won't be exactly 1:1, but I suspect many more people would sign on for that deal, offsetting the "loss" of making it more affordable.
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Re: NFL 2019

Fri Jul 12, 2019 9:48 am

superjawes wrote:
As for League revenue, I think they have options to maintain current levels. Their DirecTV deal needs to DIAF so they can replace it with a dish-free streaming option. I would buy in if they made it streamable and cut the price to $100 for the season. And even then, I don't need every single game for that price. I really just want prime time and all of my team's games. Maybe it won't be exactly 1:1, but I suspect many more people would sign on for that deal, offsetting the "loss" of making it more affordable.

This Wikipedia article is a good read if you've got the time, but the portion I linked gets to the meat of it. Sunday Ticket is just one piece of the pie, though yes, the area with the most potential for growth IMO. If you include Sunday Ticket, the NFL's current network contracts look to be about $7.025b assuming my math is correct.

In all likelihood, DirectTV ($1.500) and ESPN ($1.750) will not renew after their contracts, or will re-negotiate for much lower, possibly non-exclusive agreements. That would put $3.250b, or roughly 46% of the NFL's current income up in the air within 3 years. The three traditional networks also have contracts up within that time period, but I don't know much about their financial outlooks. I would expect them to be somewhat more stable, but I could be way off.
 
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Re: NFL 2019

Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:03 am

Alright, kids. Let's get this party started.

Week 1

2019 and 100th Season Kickoff Game, 9/5
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears

Sunday, 9/8
Los Angeles Rams at Carolina Panthers
Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets
Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings
Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins
Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars
Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns
Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Chargers
Cincinnati Bengals at Seattle Seahawks
San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys
Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals

Sunday Night Football
Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots

Monday Night Football, 9/9
Houston Texans at New Orleans Saints
Denver Broncos at "Oakland" Raiders

Picks are just me playing myself. While it would be a perfectTM upset opportunity for the Pack, I think the Bears get to set their own tone for their 2019 campaign. I also like Philly and NO opening at home, and I would even take the Seahawks in Cincinnati. Oh? You like the Chiefs over the Jags? That's bait. Florida games always upset your expectations this early in the season, so I won't be ruling out a "surprise" from Saint Nick. Same goes for Fitzmagick in Miami and Bruce Arians in Tampa.

If you want some games to watch, start with Dan Quinn vs. Mike Zimmer in Minnesota. These coaches are likely entering "Miami or Bust" seasons with hungry fan bases. Plus, Matt Ryan vs. Kirk Cousins should be fun. You might also get a close cross-country matchup in Carolina, and an early start to a Wild Card battle with Bills vs. Jets. While I expect the Chargers to win, it might also be beneficial to watch their matchup against the Colts. Honestly, a loss here is actually good for Indy. Expectations are low, and I like their long-term chances if they play as underdogs. Plus, the only way this team makes a legitimate playoff run is if they discover and fix their weaknesses early.

Speaking of the Colts, let's talk season-long storylines. I still think the Colts are better than some have them pegged. It takes more than a QB to make a roster, and the Ballard/Reich team proved itself in 2018. I do think they end up over .500 with a plausible playoff spot, but getting there will be a challenge.

I also think the crowd favorite Browns make the playoffs. They might not win the division, but I think they make it into Wild Card round...where they lose. This team seems stacked with talent, but they need a little more playoff experience before I consider them real Super Bowl contenders. Also, they need to maintain the same QB1, HC, and GM for more than 18 months before they earn any championship consideration.

I'll also be (among many) watching Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes. This is a fun duo, and they deserve greatness. The big questions: Can they keep up the dazzling offense? Can they muster a semi-competent defense? If they manage both, they're easily on the shortlist for Super Bowl LIV. The Chargers will be chomping at the bit to steal the division, but I doubt that happens. The Raiders also have an interesting question to answer: can they be more interesting on the field than off? They probably finish under .500 regardless.

Now in the NFC...is Carson Wentz the guy? We seem to forget that he did secure the #1 seed in 2017, but the injuries hobbled his 2018 season, and now they've lost their QB2 safety net. Also in the NFC East, are the Giants ready to move on from Eli?...of course they are. I expect a Jones start fairly early. I also expect Jones to suffer terribly because that team doesn't have any QB protection.

In da North we have da Bears ready to follow-up a remarkable 2018. I think Trubinsky holds them back a bit, but they're still favorites in the division and a shoe-in for a playoff spot. Still, 2019 won't be as easy. A revamped Pack offense will be exciting to watch, and I already mentioned Zimmer's predicament, so things should be tighter in the North.

There are many other storylines to watch, but the last one I'll write up is for Drew Brees. Can he win a second ring? And sticking with the Saints, is Bridgewater their answer to Brees' inevitable retirement? This is another QB I'm hoping does well, but 2019 won't be easy. If Brees gets that ring, he, Payton, and all of New Orleans will have earned it.
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Re: NFL 2019

Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:52 pm

I'm excited to see ma boy David Montgomery start for the Bears as a rookie. He's going to freight train some defenders. Rookie of the year -- you heard it here first!
 
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Re: NFL 2019

Fri Aug 30, 2019 2:07 pm

Buub wrote:
I'm excited to see ma boy David Montgomery start for the Bears as a rookie. He's going to freight train some defenders. Rookie of the year -- you heard it here first!

As cool as that would be, it will be fairly difficult to achieve with Nagy using a "RB by committee" approach, even if he gets the majority of the actual rushes.

I'd personally like to see a good helping of multiple RB sets to keep the defenses guessing.
 
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Re: NFL 2019

Sat Aug 31, 2019 6:43 pm

Have running back by committees ever worked out well? Not nearly as often as they fail spectacularly.

Clooney to the Seahawks. Awesome! NFC West is going to be the most interesting division for sure now.
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Re: NFL 2019

Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:56 pm

TheEmrys wrote:
Have running back by committees ever worked out well?
Sure. Lots of times. Warrick Dunn and Mike Alstott, Mercury Morris, Larry Csonka and Jim Klick, Bo Jackson and Marcus Allen, Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara...
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Re: NFL 2019

Sat Aug 31, 2019 11:04 pm

JustAnEngineer wrote:
Mercury Morris, Larry Csonka and Jim Klick

In which JAE announces his membership in the age cohort shared with JBI and myself. BTW: 22, 39, and 21, and it's Kiick.
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Re: NFL 2019

Sun Sep 01, 2019 5:54 am

I wonder how much those hundreds of '72 & '73 football cards would be worth today if I still had them?
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Re: NFL 2019

Sun Sep 01, 2019 2:39 pm

JustAnEngineer wrote:
TheEmrys wrote:
Have running back by committees ever worked out well?
Sure. Lots of times. Warrick Dunn and Mike Alstott, Mercury Morris, Larry Csonka and Jim Klick, Bo Jackson and Marcus Allen, Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara...


Should have qualified it by modern offenses with a lone back set. Pro/Near/Far/I sets are rare. Teams don't utilize FB's any more. Historically, it has been very successful. But in lone back sets? Maybe the Jacksonville set where they had Maurice Jones-Drew and..... Fred Taylor? I see a lot of teams say they will do RB by committe and it is generally a bad idea. Denver might be the next team that can do it well.
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Re: NFL 2019

Sun Sep 01, 2019 2:40 pm

JustAnEngineer wrote:
I wonder how much those hundreds of '72 & '73 football cards would be worth today if I still had them?


Not much. My dad's from the 50's and 60's are worth maybe 1/10th what his baseball cards are worth.
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Re: NFL 2019

Tue Sep 03, 2019 8:35 am

The Colts have secured their current (and unexpected) starting QB through 2020 with a $30 million deal. For context, this puts him at the bottom among veteran starters, and ahead of everyone still on rookie deals. Also, Brian Hoyer was signed to a 3-year deal to be veteran backup.

I don't hate it, and here's what I said in the Luck retirement thread:
superjawes wrote:
But in the meantime, I think we really need to pay Jacoby. He's only on contract for this season, and for a low cost of $2 mil. If he proves he can start in the NFL, he'll hit free agency with huge value, and we could end up in a bidding war. I'd get him up to at least $4 mil for this year as a starter, and get a midrange price for 2020. Basically, give him a "prove it" contract in the short term so--assuming he's good in 2019--we can negotiate a better long-term deal in 2020 to keep him in Indy (and also we won't be screwed if he flounders).
So $4 mil was low, but Ballard still did what he needed to do. A potential future is secured, he's got a much better contract, and we'll be in good shape for 2020-2021 negotiations.
On second thought, let's not go to TechReport. Tis a silly place.
 
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Re: NFL 2019

Thu Sep 05, 2019 10:32 pm

And my first pick of the year is a bust in the best way possible! Yes, I like the Packers, but that was just a good game, and pretty good defense...which is just weird.
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Re: NFL 2019

Fri Sep 06, 2019 12:56 pm

superjawes wrote:
And my first pick of the year is a bust in the best way possible! Yes, I like the Packers, but that was just a good game, and pretty good defense...which is just weird.

The Bears look like they haven't quit sorted out their game plan yet. They seemed a bit disoriented. I was really hoping to see more of David Montgomery. He had some awesome plays while he was in there. Maybe they're just trying to ease him into the job so they don't burn him out too early. No idea.

Also was disappointed to not see much of Allen Lazard for the Packers. He had some good practices with them, but I understand he's way down the roster. Still would have been fun to see him catch a ball or two. He was one of the all-time best receivers for Iowa State.
 
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Re: NFL 2019

Fri Sep 06, 2019 1:25 pm

What we saw in Thursday's game was a result of the majority of both starting offenses and both QBs not taking a single preseason snap. Both of them came in ice cold and had to go against outstanding defenses. Rodgers took until the end of the first half to get up to game-speed, while Trubisky took the majority of the game. I can understand holding out Rodgers (very high salary, many years in the league), but Trubisky could have very clearly used the preseason playing time. That's on the coach.

Nagy's offensive playcalling was also once again very poor. They went a stretch of like 30 plays without a run, and he failed to utilize his weapons properly. Cohen was barely used, Montgomery was barely used, and I don't think Miller their WR2 was even in the game most the time. None of that makes any sense. Basically a repeat of last year's playoff game. Terrible playcalling, poor coaching.
 
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Re: NFL 2019

Fri Sep 06, 2019 6:49 pm

The Egg wrote:
What we saw in Thursday's game was a result of the majority of both starting offenses and both QBs not taking a single preseason snap. Both of them came in ice cold and had to go against outstanding defenses. Rodgers took until the end of the first half to get up to game-speed, while Trubisky took the majority of the game. I can understand holding out Rodgers (very high salary, many years in the league), but Trubisky could have very clearly used the preseason playing time. That's on the coach.

That's a great perspective. I understand keeping them out of major preseason snaps to keep them healthy. But practice is important, and seems like there needs to be some balance there.

Nagy's offensive playcalling was also once again very poor. They went a stretch of like 30 plays without a run, and he failed to utilize his weapons properly. Cohen was barely used, Montgomery was barely used, and I don't think Miller their WR2 was even in the game most the time. None of that makes any sense. Basically a repeat of last year's playoff game. Terrible playcalling, poor coaching.

He claims that a lot of RPOs were called, and MT ended up throwing for most of them. Nagy seemed frustrated by the amount of running after the game as well. But then again, he's the coach -- he needs to fix that. Next game will see if he does.
 
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Re: NFL 2019

Fri Sep 06, 2019 8:04 pm

While the Bears defense remains very good, they had an amazingly high number of takeaways last season. That's not normally a statistic that can reliably be counted upon to remain at a high level, so you'd expect some regression to the mean on the defensive side of the ball this year, and the offense doesn't look good enough to make up the difference.
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Re: NFL 2019

Sat Sep 07, 2019 12:07 pm

And Antonio Brown yet again proves why the Steelers were smart to let him go.
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Re: NFL 2019

Sat Sep 07, 2019 1:58 pm

Captain Ned wrote:
Antonio Brown yet again proves why the Steelers were smart to let him go.
https://sports.yahoo.com/antonio-brown- ... 47489.html
Drew Rosenhaus wrote:
"Now that Antonio is a free agent, we are focused on the future and I will immediately work on signing him to a new team {that he can also bring down}. Antonio is looking forward to a new beginning."
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Re: NFL 2019

Sat Sep 07, 2019 4:33 pm

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/275 ... l-patriots

How many weeks until the Patriots implode? AB wants it to be all about him all of the time, so he goes to the one team that WILL NOT let that happen. Popcorn time.
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Re: NFL 2019

Sat Sep 07, 2019 6:46 pm

At what point does this whole AB saga stop being a funny show and start getting serious? The man does play football, after all, and he's taken at least one intense shot to the head (from Vontaze Burfict). Seeing what's happened from the cryo therapy to the helmet thing to release...these might actually be symptoms of CTE. Granted, IANAD, but he was one of the best players in the league, and it feels like all of this happened very rapidly, rather than a consistent pattern of acting out.
On second thought, let's not go to TechReport. Tis a silly place.
 
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Re: NFL 2019

Sun Sep 08, 2019 6:50 pm

superjawes wrote:
At what point does this whole AB saga stop being a funny show and start getting serious? The man does play football, after all, and he's taken at least one intense shot to the head (from Vontaze Burfict). Seeing what's happened from the cryo therapy to the helmet thing to release...these might actually be symptoms of CTE. Granted, IANAD, but he was one of the best players in the league, and it feels like all of this happened very rapidly, rather than a consistent pattern of acting out.


I've been thinking that for several weeks now
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Re: NFL 2019

Sun Sep 08, 2019 7:29 pm

Week 1 - Results

2019 and 100th Season Kickoff Game, 9/5
Green Bay Packers 10 at Chicago Bears 3

Sunday, 9/8
Los Angeles Rams 30 at Carolina Panthers 27
Washington Redskins 27 at Philadelphia Eagles 32
Buffalo Bills 17 at New York Jets 16
Atlanta Falcons 12 at Minnesota Vikings 28
Baltimore Ravens 59 at Miami Dolphins 10
Kansas City Chiefs 40 at Jacksonville Jaguars 26
Tennessee Titans 42 at Cleveland Browns 13
Indianapolis Colts 24 at Los Angeles Chargers 30
Cincinnati Bengals 20 at Seattle Seahawks 21
San Francisco 49ers 31 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17
New York Giants 17 at Dallas Cowboys 35
Detroit Lions 27 at Arizona Cardinals 27 - TIE

Sunday Night Football
Pittsburgh Steelers 3 at New England Patriots 33

Monday Night Football, 9/9
Houston Texans 28 at New Orleans Saints 30
Denver Broncos 16 at "Oakland" Raiders 24

Old news from the early window, the Browns are still the Browns. New news from the early window, Jacksonville might be hunting for another QB after Nick Foles is injured on his first TD pass of his tenure, the Ravens set a franchise record for points scored in a single game, and Mike Zimmer starts his 2019 much better than Dan Quinn.

So the Dolphins are officially in tanking mode. Do they go for a perfect 0-16 season? If they win a game, who do they beat and when? Also worth asking: which players make it to week 17? With Foles being out "indefinitely" for the Jags, Josh Rosen might be a possible fill-in.

From the later window...I think the Lions and Cardinals are still kinda bad, bringing the year's first tie game. Week 1 2018 also saw the Steelers and Browns tie.

My Colts lost in OT, which is disappointing, but we started last year 1-5, and I saw a lot that can be fixed for the coming weeks.

MNF EDIT: Wooooooooooooooooooooow that NO game! Brought my last pick of the week down to the final seconds!
Last edited by superjawes on Tue Sep 10, 2019 12:10 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: NFL 2019

Mon Sep 09, 2019 10:35 am

That Seahawks game was a nailbiter! Someone get the offensive line a Starbucks run or something.
Last edited by Buub on Tue Sep 10, 2019 10:10 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Re: NFL 2019

Mon Sep 09, 2019 11:03 am

Buub wrote:
That Seahawks game was a nailbiter! Some get the offensive line a Starbucks run or something.

I was surprised by how close that one was, and it all came down to Wilson's O-line. He was throwing well when he scrambled or had time, but they aren't going to beat better teams under that kind of pressure.
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Re: NFL 2019

Tue Sep 10, 2019 9:11 pm

Just when you thought that the Antonio Brown crazy was cooling down:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/275 ... il-lawsuit
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Re: NFL 2019

Tue Sep 10, 2019 9:14 pm

Talking heads on two of the sports talk radio stations were referring to him as "Antonio Clown" this week.
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/anto ... very-step/
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Re: NFL 2019

Wed Sep 11, 2019 6:04 pm

Week 2

Thursday Night Football 9/12
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers

Sunday, 9/15
Arizona Cardinals at Baltimore Ravens
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans
Seattle Seahawks at Pittsburgh Steelers
Buffalo Bills at New York Giants
San Francisco 49ers at Cincinnati Bengals
Los Angeles Chargers at Detroit Lions
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins
Kansas City Chiefs at "Oakland" Raiders
New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Rams
Chicago Bears at Denver Broncos

Sunday Night Football
Philadelphia Eagles at Atlanta Falcons

Monday Night Football, 9/16
Cleveland Browns at New York Jets

Normally I would not pick the Patriots out of principle, but picking against Miami just makes sense for this one (which is why they get the red, too). While I think Baltimore exploited that to run up the score, I also think the Ravens are more than good enough to take the Cardinals at home. I also like Seattle over whatever is going on in Pittsburgh, as well as the Texans getting a division win at home. My last pick is possibly my most dangerous, but Atlanta's poor performance dropped their favorability enough to pick the Eagles.

If you want some good games to watch, Indy vs. Tennessee should be good. The Titans got an easy open, but the Colts are much more serious, and it's a great opportunity to extend their winning streak without Andrew Luck under center. We've also got another good matchup in Green Bay. Does the Pack have a defense? Can their offense get started faster? Can Zimmer's defense restrain an NFL MVP for two weeks in a row?
On second thought, let's not go to TechReport. Tis a silly place.
 
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Re: NFL 2019

Wed Sep 11, 2019 9:29 pm

superjawes wrote:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers -6½
Arizona Cardinals +13½ at Baltimore Ravens
Dallas Cowboys -4½ at Washington Redskins
Seattle Seahawks at Pittsburgh Steelers -4
Jacksonville Jaguars +2½ at Houston Texans
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins +19
Kansas City Chiefs -8 at "Oakland" Raiders
Philadelphia Eagles at Atlanta Falcons +1½
Patriots over Dolphins seems like a no-brainer, if you ignore the point spread and the money line.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... id=rrpromo
FiveThirtyEight's ELO model gives the Patriots an 81% chance of winning. It also likes the Ravens over the Cardinals and the Texans over the Jaguars with a similar confidence.
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Re: NFL 2019

Thu Sep 12, 2019 9:53 am

Well this is certainly a story. I don't think Trevor Siemien is a huge downgrade, but I wasn't expecting too much from this game anyway.
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