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superjawes
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NFL 2018

Fri Aug 31, 2018 9:49 am

The wait is finally over. The 2018 season begins in 6 days, so let's get this started.

Week 1

2018 Kickoff Game 9/6
Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles

Sunday 9/9
Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens
Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Giants
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints
Houston Texans at New England Patriots
San Francisco 49ers at Minnesota Vikings
Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins
Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns
Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers
Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos
Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers
Washington Redskins at Arizona Cardinals

Sunday Night Football
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers

Monday Night Football, 9/10
New York Jets at Detroit Lions
Los Angeles Rams at "Oakland" Raiders

Week 1 predictions are pretty simple. The Eagles are going to struggle a bit at QB (for a few weeks), but I still think they start 2018 with a bang. The Saints were really good last year, and I think they'll be really good this year. The Bears are better than most will give them credit, but The Man got paid, he's back, and the Pack are at home. Games to watch? 49ers/Vikings is going to be good. Jimmy G could easily pull of an upset against one of the top NFC teams. Also keep an eye on Cleveland, as I don't think the Browns were an 0-16 team last year (more on that below).

Season long storylines/predictions to watch include Andrew Luck's return. My Colts could have drafted one of the many QB's taken in the first round, but instead they traded down (twice), so my guess is that Luck is going to be fully recovered (physically) and it will be Coach Reich's job to keep him safe and fix that team's awful, awful defense.

Remember Cleveland's 1-31 record over 2 years? That ends this year...I'm not saying they win the division (because getting through Pittsburgh AND Baltimore will be tough), but they win several (6 to 9) games. Any bets on when they win their first?

The NFC East is a tough division, but I think the closest and/or most competitive division this year is the NFC North. Vikings? Good. Packers? Great when Aaron is healthy. Lions? Well, they've had one of the best QBs in the league, and now they have a new coach. Bears? Underrated. Their QB got the benefit of low expectations in his rookie season, and I think they'll have a decent all-around team.

Keep an eye on the Giants. They were another team that was (should have been) better than their 2017 record, but now that they've dumped the terrible HC, this team should do better. I don't think they beat the Eagles in the NFC East, but they might make a WC spot...

Moving West, I see a ton of people hyped about the Rams, but I said all last year that they were overrated, bolstered by low expectations and playing in a weak division. This year, the Cards look better, and the 49ers are due for a breakout now that they have their QB troubles handled. The 49ers will win the NFC West.

Finally...this is going to be a crazy QB year. Besides Luck and Rodgers coming off injury, Alex Smith, Kirk Cousins, and Case Keenum all have new jobs. Brees is coming up on the end of his career. Wentz is due back some time this year, and his backup/temporary starter is SB LII's MVP. And after all that, we have a ton of rookie/sophomore QBs with expectations.
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Re: NFL 2018

Fri Aug 31, 2018 4:00 pm

I doubt the 49ers finish even above the Seahawks. If the Rams stay healthy, they have a good chance to take the NFC West. If the Seahawks could ever get healthy, they could win 10-11 games.
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Re: NFL 2018

Fri Aug 31, 2018 4:43 pm

I personally think Garrapolo is getting too much credit for fixing the 9'ers.. I'm willing to be proven wrong..

I see the AFC west doesn't even make the commentary :)
 
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Re: NFL 2018

Sun Sep 02, 2018 9:07 am

druidcent wrote:
I personally think Garrapolo is getting too much credit for fixing the 9'ers.. I'm willing to be proven wrong..

That's kind of why I'm all-in on the 9ers winning the NFC West. I see Garropolo as a catalyst. He is really good, possibly among the best in the league, but he isn't the only piece of the puzzle. SF won their last 5 games last year, and 3 of those wins were against playoff teams (they dropped 44 points against the Jags, who are supposed to have a devastating defense). I think Shanahan is just getting started with that team.

But it's not just the 9ers fueling my prediction. Around that division, Arizona seems okay, but the Seahawks have let go most of their championship defense, which could end very, very badly for them. The Rams got an easy schedule last year, and they gave up 34 points to the 49ers in week 17, only to be eliminated by the Falcons 26-13 in the Wild Card round. This division is either going to be close, or the 9ers will "unexpectedly" run away with it.

I see the AFC west doesn't even make the commentary :)

The AFC West is just...weird? I think Denver is on the verge of a complete collapse because Elway doesn't have the patience to develop a QB. I see a ton of people like the Chargers, but they never have a home game. I don't know if Gruden can fix the Raiders (although I don't think they were completely broken to begin with), and KC will depend on how their new QB does. Alex Smith showed that he is still really good, but the Chiefs let him go for the new guy, and that's saying something. Overall, though, I don't see any of these teams making it past the first round of the playoffs, so there isn't much to say right now.
On second thought, let's not go to TechReport. Tis a silly place.
 
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Re: NFL 2018

Sun Sep 02, 2018 9:19 am

superjawes wrote:
I see the AFC west doesn't even make the commentary :)

The AFC West is just...weird? I think Denver is on the verge of a complete collapse because Elway doesn't have the patience to develop a QB. I see a ton of people like the Chargers, but they never have a home game. I don't know if Gruden can fix the Raiders (although I don't think they were completely broken to begin with), and KC will depend on how their new QB does. Alex Smith showed that he is still really good, but the Chiefs let him go for the new guy, and that's saying something. Overall, though, I don't see any of these teams making it past the first round of the playoffs, so there isn't much to say right now.


Curious... I'll grant that Bronco's haven't selected a good quarterback in a while, but the last couple years seems to be giving the quarterbacks that were drafted a chance. Considering the Bronco's D isn't that different from the Super Bowl 50 team, you don't think a quarterback who gives them a chance to play will get them through the first round at least?

I'd say Gruden is working to blow up what was a decent Raiders team (Mack still isn't under contract last I checked). I agree with you on the Chargers and Chiefs though..
 
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Re: NFL 2018

Sun Sep 02, 2018 12:01 pm

I don't see Garappolo as being all that good, or even great. I see him as being very average. However, average is still valuable.

Also, Mack -> Bears.
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Re: NFL 2018

Sun Sep 02, 2018 12:31 pm

TheEmrys wrote:
I don't see Garappolo as being all that good, or even great. I see him as being very average. However, average is still valuable.

Also, Mack -> Bears.

I'm actually on the Garappolo train, but yeah, Mack to the Bears. Oof.

Also :( Jerrick McKinnon torn ACL. Might mean more passing attempts for Jimmy if they can't find a reliable replacement between Brieda and Morris.
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Re: NFL 2018

Mon Sep 03, 2018 9:35 am

druidcent wrote:
Curious... I'll grant that Bronco's haven't selected a good quarterback in a while, but the last couple years seems to be giving the quarterbacks that were drafted a chance. Considering the Bronco's D isn't that different from the Super Bowl 50 team, you don't think a quarterback who gives them a chance to play will get them through the first round at least?
I think at least part of Denver's problem is that there isn't any stability at the QB position. I think they had a good combo last year. Siemian seems like backup material, so he's your insurance policy. Lynch was the drafted choice, so he should have been the primary starter to get experience. Then they've got the alt-starter in Osweiler, who had history with the team. Lynch didn't get a chance until way late in the season, and after he got injured, they went back to Siemian (who had been benched in Week 9 due to ineffectiveness).

Looking at that...do you really think Case Keenum is going to magically solve their offensive problems? Oh, and I just checked the news on this. None of the QBs mentioned are with the Broncos now. Siemian is in Minnesota, Osweiler in Miami, and Lynch just got cut yesterday.
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Re: NFL 2018

Mon Sep 03, 2018 9:52 am

Pro Football Focus, on August 6 wrote:
NFL quarterback rankings
1. Tom Brady, New England Patriots
2. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
3. Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons
4. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints
5. Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks
6. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers
7. Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts
8. Phillip Rivers, Los Angeles Chargers
9. Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Eagles (still sidelined by late-2017 knee injury. Nick Foles will start)
10. Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions
11. Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers
12. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
13. Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders
14. Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings
15. Alex Smith, Washington Redskins
16. Marcus Mariota, Tennessee Titans
17. Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers
18. Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams
19. Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (suspended 3 games for groping an Uber driver. Ryan Fitzpatrick will start)
20. Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans
21. Tyrod Taylor, Cleveland Browns
22. Sam Bradford, Arizona Cardinals
23. Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals
24. Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins
25. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
26. Mitchell Trubisky, Chicago Bears
27. Blake Bortles, Jacksonville Jaguars
28. Eli Manning, New Jersey Giants
29. Case Keenum, Denver Broncos
30. Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens
31. Josh McCown, New Jersey Jets
32. A.J. McCarron, Buffalo Bills (traded to the Raiders on 9/2 for a 6th round pick. Nathan Peterman will start)
Mike Sando's ESPN QB ranking article based on surveys of NFL executives is behind a paywall, but here is an excerpt:
https://ftw.usatoday.com/2018/07/espn-n ... -hot-takes
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Re: NFL 2018

Mon Sep 03, 2018 1:44 pm

lol @ Broncos releasing Lynch. Things going super smoothly for Elway, eh?
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Re: NFL 2018

Mon Sep 03, 2018 4:01 pm

It was Rick Smith that gave Brock Osweiler $37 million guaranteed and then gave up the 4th pick in the 2nd round of the 2018 draft to get out from under that contract. Elway passed on that opportunity.
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Re: NFL 2018

Mon Sep 03, 2018 4:32 pm

JustAnEngineer wrote:
It was Rick Smith that gave Brock Osweiler $37 million guaranteed and then gave up the 4th pick in the 2nd round of the 2018 draft to get out from under that contract. Elway passed on that opportunity.

/shrug

They're a mess either way.
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Re: NFL 2018

Tue Sep 04, 2018 12:08 am

Paxton Lynch was given every opportunity to beat out Siemian last year.. he just couldn't do it.. He was a one read QB..

The OL didn't help Simiean either.. I think he got injured in game 5 or something, and was never right after that.. (maybe the season before). If Case Keenum can provide steady game manager play (not sure, considering the OL is still crap), Denver will be fighting for KC for the AFC West championship.
 
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Re: NFL 2018

Wed Sep 05, 2018 8:30 pm

FiveThirtyEight wrote:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... edictions/
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/nf ... he-browns/
Projected regular season wins:
AFC East:
11.0 New England Patriots
7.0 New Jersey Jets
6.9 Miami Dolphins
6.0 Buffalo Bills
AFC North:
10.3 Pittsburgh Steelers
8.2 Baltimore Ravens
6.6 Cincinnati Bengals
5.4 Cleveland Browns
AFC South:
8.8 Jacksonville Jaguars
8.1 Houston Texans
8.1 Tennessee Titans
6.7 Indianapolis Colts
AFC West:
9.0 Los Angeles Chargers
8.2 Kansas City Chiefs
7.2 Denver Broncos
7.2 Oakland Raiders

NFC East:
10.3 Philadelphia Eagles
8.6 Dallas Cowboys
6.7 New Jersey Giants
6.7 Washington Redskins
NFC North:
9.9 Minnesota Vikings
9.4 Green Bay Packers
8.2 Detroit Lions
6.6 Chicago Bears
NFC South:
9.8 Atlanta Falcons
9.7 New Orleans Saints
8.2 Carolina Panthers
6.3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
NFC West:
9.4 Los Angeles Rams
8.1 San Francisco 49ers
8.0 Seattle Seahawks
6.2 Arizona Cardinals
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Re: NFL 2018

Thu Sep 06, 2018 10:50 am

I'm hopeful that the Ravens can take-on another win and get back to the playoffs this year. All that would require is Joe Flacco to return to his 2014 level-of-play (more tds, more ypa). We''ve added to the number of quality targets, so the only missing link here is him.

We'll see if he actually takes that next step, or if the Ravens will have to consider cutting him next year (he's very expensive for the last years of his contract).
 
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Re: NFL 2018

Fri Sep 07, 2018 12:39 am

superjawes wrote:

2018 Kickoff Game 9/6
Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles




I liked it, despite fairly poor game-play - it was a well-matched game.


A lot of (legit) calls though..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5eFZyzWLK4Y
 
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Re: NFL 2018

Sun Sep 09, 2018 8:01 am

Guys, I'm sorry. I forgot one of the biggest story lines to watch this season:

Adam Vinatieri is 57 points from matching--58 points from passing--Morten Andersen for the all-time leading scorer in the NFL.

So go Colts!
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Re: NFL 2018

Sun Sep 09, 2018 9:15 am

Vinatieri should definitely have that record before Thanksgiving.
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Re: NFL 2018

Sun Sep 09, 2018 1:25 pm

Even more commercials (it wasn’t bad enough, now they’re half-screen in between plays), penalty flags flying everywhere on probably 50% of the plays, more stupid ambiguous rules that nobody understands.....

The NFL’s product is almost unwatchable.
 
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Re: NFL 2018

Sun Sep 09, 2018 1:33 pm

JustAnEngineer wrote:
Vinatieri should definitely have that record before Thanksgiving.

At this rate he'll have it in week 3! :lol:
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Re: NFL 2018

Sun Sep 09, 2018 4:08 pm

...well...the Browns didn't lose...
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Re: NFL 2018

Sun Sep 09, 2018 5:28 pm

superjawes wrote:
The Browns didn't lose.
Some folks will blame Le'Veon Bell's selfishness for that.
Mean Joe Greene wrote:
Selfish players who think only of themselves … in my day they’d be gone. They can take away your championship dreams.
Le'Veon Bell is still holding out because a $14½ million/year ($855,000 per week) guaranteed franchise tender wasn't enough for him and because he doesn't want to risk an injury fulfilling his existing contract with the Steelers this year that might jeopardize his ability to sign a more massive contract with a different team next year.

In place of the absent Bell, second-year running back James Conner played all five quarters, carried the ball 31 times for 135 yards and two touchdowns and caught five out of six passes thrown his way for 57 yards, but his fumble was costly. Conner's salary is one twentieth of Bell's. Conner is paid less per season than Bell would be paid in a single week, if Le'Veon could be bothered to show up for work.
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Re: NFL 2018

Sun Sep 09, 2018 6:59 pm

snap a multiseason losing streak without winning. How the hell
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Re: NFL 2018

Sun Sep 09, 2018 8:01 pm

Week 1 - Results

2018 Kickoff Game 9/6
Atlanta Falcons 12 at Philadelphia Eagles 18

Sunday 9/9
Buffalo Bills 3 at Baltimore Ravens 47 :oops:
Jacksonville Jaguars 20 at New York Giants 15
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 48 at New Orleans Saints 40
Houston Texans 20 at New England Patriots 27
San Francisco 49ers 16 at Minnesota Vikings 24
Tennessee Titans 20 at Miami Dolphins 27 (game delayed due to weather)
Cincinnati Bengals 34 at Indianapolis Colts 23
Pittsburgh Steelers 21 at Cleveland Browns 21 - TIE :o
Kansas City Chiefs 38 at Los Angeles Chargers 28
Seattle Seahawks 24 at Denver Broncos 27
Dallas Cowboys 8 at Carolina Panthers 16
Washington Redskins 24 at Arizona Cardinals 6

Sunday Night Football
Chicago Bears 23 at Green Bay Packers 24

Monday Night Football, 9/10
New York 48 Jets at Detroit Lions 17 :(
Los Angeles Rams 33 at "Oakland" Raiders 13

EDIT: HOLY HECK. Down 20-0 at the half after getting carted off. The Man returns in the second half and rallies to win 24-23. FOOTBALL IS SAVED! REJOICE!
Last edited by superjawes on Tue Sep 11, 2018 8:21 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: NFL 2018

Sun Sep 09, 2018 8:05 pm

paulWTAMU wrote:
snap a multiseason losing streak without winning. How the hell

2017: 0-16
2016: 1-15
2015: 3-13
2014: 7-9 (still #4 in AFC North!)

It was a division game, and IIRC, they were close to not losing game 16 last year. Still, a very Browns thing to do, and they're still a long way away from getting to their 2015 record of 3 wins.
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Re: NFL 2018

Sun Sep 09, 2018 10:09 pm

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Re: NFL 2018

Sun Sep 09, 2018 10:33 pm

JustAnEngineer wrote:

Easy, now. One good game does not a great QB make.
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Re: NFL 2018

Sun Sep 09, 2018 10:40 pm

Aaron Rodgers doing Aaron Rodgers things tonight.

Sorry Da Bears.
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Re: NFL 2018

Mon Sep 10, 2018 1:28 am

JustAnEngineer wrote:
...played all five quarters...


Come again?
 
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Re: NFL 2018

Mon Sep 10, 2018 4:51 am

The NFL changed the overtime period from 15 minutes to 10 minutes of play in 2017, so it's not really a fifth quarter any more, but with 70 minutes instead of a regular game's 60 minutes, you would expect more plays in an overtime game.
https://operations.nfl.com/the-rules/nf ... ime-rules/
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