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JustAnEngineer
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Re: NFL 2018

Sun Jan 13, 2019 8:58 pm

superjawes wrote:
Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints
New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2019 ... ship-game/
Will Brinson wrote:
New England is an underdog for just the seventh time in the postseason under Bill Belichick
https://www.sportsline.com/nfl/odds/
Saints are -3½ points or bet 170 to win 100 on the money line. Chiefs are -3 points or bet 150 to win 100 on the money line. This is the 8th consecutive season that the Patriots have played in the AFC championship game under Belichick.
http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/2575 ... s-schedule
Last edited by JustAnEngineer on Mon Jan 14, 2019 7:46 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: NFL 2018

Sun Jan 13, 2019 9:06 pm

JustAnEngineer wrote:
superjawes wrote:
Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints
New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2019 ... ship-game/
Will Brinson wrote:
New England is an underdog for just the seventh time in the postseason under Bill Belichick
https://www.sportsline.com/nfl/odds/
Saints are -3½ points or bet 170 to win 100 on the money line. Chiefs are -3 points or bet 150 to win 100 on the money line. This is the 9th time that the Patriots have played in the AFC championship game under Belichick.


Good news for the Patriots (although I hate them): Alabama lost.

The Patriots have never won a Superbowl in the same year that Alabama has won the national championship. [Not that this guarantees they *will* win though]

https://www.sbnation.com/college-footba ... super-bowl
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Re: NFL 2018

Sun Jan 13, 2019 9:58 pm

superjawes wrote:
..but this Chiefs team is different, and I think getting a chance to play the Patriots earlier this season will be a good boost.


-and yet the Patriots seem to be playing quite a lot better now, and the Chiefs not so well as they were mid. season. I sure hope the Chiefs win though.
 
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Re: NFL 2018

Sun Jan 20, 2019 10:20 pm

..crap. :cry:
 
chuckula
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Re: NFL 2018

Sun Jan 20, 2019 10:22 pm

Rams: Got in on a bad call.
Patriots: Got in by selling their souls to the devil.

Interest in this Stuperbowl: Nil.
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Re: NFL 2018

Sun Jan 20, 2019 10:22 pm

NFC Championship Game - Results
Los Angeles Rams 26 at New Orleans Saints 23

AFC Championship Game - Results
New England Patriots 37 at Kansas City Chiefs 31

Super Bowl LIII
Los Angeles Rams vs. New England Patriots

Football is bad. I hate it.

The Chiefs played very well, again having their defense punch well above their ~31st in the league ranking, but it wasn't enough. There are a few bogus calls made against them, but the talk of the next couple weeks will probably be the missed DPI against the Rams that stole the NFC Championship from the Saints. So now the Rams and Patriots return to the Super Bowl 17 years later, and I have to pick the Rams...by a last second field goal.

But don't hold it against me if I find something else to watch that weekend.
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Re: NFL 2018

Sun Jan 20, 2019 11:34 pm

so the Saints "missed" call was so so so so awful

the officiating was almost equally as awful in the Chiefs/Pats game, but it was fairly "both sides" awful. More than one D-PI/holding that should have been called on the Chiefs and wasn't. The roughing the passer on the Chiefs was pretty lol.

But I mean, you can't line up offsides on a game deciding play. The Chiefs lost that game. Brady did what Brady does.

also....

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Re: NFL 2018

Thu Jan 31, 2019 10:32 pm

https://theundefeated.com/features/rams ... ve-genius/
Domonique Foxworth wrote:
Genius is creativity and ingenuity. In football, it is exploiting an advantage that other teams have yet to find.

The first genius tactic McVay has used this season, which will be copied by teams next season, is putting receivers in tight alignments and creating condensed formations. While many coaches are just starting to accept that spread offenses are not just for college football, McVay is doing the opposite: contracting. With the help of ESPN Analytics and NFL Next Gen Stats, I discovered that 60 percent of the Rams’ formations are less than 20 yards wide at the snap. The second team on that list is at 37 percent. Condensed formations benefit the Rams in several ways. They shorten the edge of the defense for outside runs. They also allow receivers to block in the running game. On bootlegs and waggles, they allow receivers to down-block on the defensive end, ensuring that the quarterback can roll out of the pocket and have more time to throw. And when teams have adjusted by putting the defensive end outside of the receiver, they’ve left a large running gap for the offense. Condensed formations also facilitate picks and crossing routes that can’t be stopped in press man coverage. So teams don’t press the Rams, giving their receivers free releases off the line. And teams will play a lot more zone against the Rams, which is weak against the flood concepts that the Rams run most often. Zone coverages also give defenders more rules and responsibilities, which means there are more opportunities for McVay to create mismatches and contradictions that can result in blown coverages.

The other thing that the Rams are doing way more than the rest of the league is quick snaps. According to ESPN Analytics and NFL Next Gen Stats, the Rams rushed to the line and snapped the ball in less than five seconds after the ref set the ball 127 times this season. Most other teams didn’t quick-snap more than 40 times this season. The advantage the Rams get from quick-snapping is obvious to even the untrained eye, which can see defenders scramble to get lined up properly, resulting in D-linemen getting blown off the ball on running plays and receivers going unguarded on passes. The benefits show up in the numbers too. On quick snaps, the Rams’ EPA per play is 0.31. That may not sound like much, but it means the Rams are adding 0.3 points to their total every time they quick-snap. On regular snaps, when the Rams snap the ball after five seconds, their EPA is a less impressive but still very good 0.12. Their EPA on regular snaps is probably improved by the very real threat of the quick snap because defenses are less likely to disguise their coverages if they fear that the Rams will quick-snap and catch them out of position. So McVay has the advantage of knowing the defense while still having plenty of time left to communicate his thoughts to Goff before the play clock gets to 15 seconds and the coach-to-quarterback communications are shut off.
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CScottG
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Re: NFL 2018

Sun Feb 03, 2019 10:53 pm

Superbowl ticket purchasers didn't get there money's worth. (..not even close.)

I was hoping the Rams would rally after the first half.. but they just didn't want it bad enough: to many safe plays for a team that got there in the first place because of risky plays (that went well enough overall).

Of course fantastic defense on both sides.. but it makes for an utterly lackluster viewing experience. :oops:
 
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Re: NFL 2018

Mon Feb 04, 2019 6:36 am

CScottG wrote:
Superbowl ticket purchasers didn't get there money's worth. (..not even close.)

I was hoping the Rams would rally after the first half.. but they just didn't want it bad enough: to many safe plays for a team that got there in the first place because of risky plays (that went well enough overall).

Of course fantastic defense on both sides.. but it makes for an utterly lackluster viewing experience. :oops:

Like I posted elsewhere, the Eagles played to win last year. The Rams didn't. When they tried a draw play on 3rd and 22 with under 10 left in the 4th, I rolled my eyes and said "you (censored) deserve to lose."

The defense was amazing on both sides, but the Rams' offense didn't show up. Makes me wish even more that pass interference against the Saints had gotten called. :roll:
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Re: NFL 2018

Mon Feb 04, 2019 7:44 am

I skipped most of the big game, but it looks like LIII will easily be considered one of the worst Super Bowls ever. Instead, let's take one last look back at predictions from the 2018 season, then we can abandon, close, or burn this thread.

superjawes, in Week 12 wrote:
superjawes, in Week 1 wrote:
Season long storylines/predictions to watch include Andrew Luck's return. My Colts could have drafted one of the many QB's taken in the first round, but instead they traded down (twice), so my guess is that Luck is going to be fully recovered (physically) and it will be Coach Reich's job to keep him safe and fix that team's awful, awful defense.
The Colts have won 4 games straight and look like the best 5-5 team in the league. They have candidates for rookie of the year, and the O-line has given up zero (0) sacks in five (5) games. On top of that, Andrew Luck has thrown 3+ TD passes in 7 straight games. Feels good, man! :D
Darius Leonard is DROY, and he completely earned it. Loved watching that kid force fumbles. It's also refreshing to see Andrew Luck get real protection. He may have gotten Comeback Player of the Year, but we have to credit much of that to the Renaissance in front of him. I really think Coach Reich deserved coach of the year (more on that later), but we're going into 2019 feeling the best we have in a long time.

superjawes, in Week 12 wrote:
superjawes, in Week 1 wrote:
Remember Cleveland's 1-31 record over 2 years? That ends this year...I'm not saying they win the division (because getting through Pittsburgh AND Baltimore will be tough), but they win several (6 to 9) games. Any bets on when they win their first?
6 wins might be unlikely now, but they have won three (plus a tie), and they got their first win of the year in Week 3.
Hey! Cleveland managed to sneak in enough wins for my "6 to 9" prediction! :lol: I'd probably treat them as overrated in 2019, though. Yeah, they did a lot of good, but the coaching situation doesn't give me a lot of confidence in their ability to sustain a ~.500 pace. I hope they do well.

superjawes, in Week 12 wrote:
superjawes, in Week 1 wrote:
...I think the closest and/or most competitive division this year is the NFC North. Vikings? Good. Packers? Great when Aaron is healthy. Lions? Well, they've had one of the best QBs in the league, and now they have a new coach. Bears? Underrated. Their QB got the benefit of low expectations in his rookie season, and I think they'll have a decent all-around team.
This still looks like the most competitive division. The Packers clearly have some issues, and the Lions are a work in progress with a 4-6 record. Still, only 3 games separate #1 from #3. The surprise here is the Bears. I knew they were underrated, and their QB still needs some work, but that defense has been kicking ass and taking names. This team should make the playoffs for the fist time since 2011.
Matt Nagy did a lot of good with the Bears. I do think many of the pieces were already there, which is why (besides my Colts bias) I think Reich deserved Coach of the Year more, but he still brought hope back to Bears fans, and they haven't had that in a LOOONG time.

As for the rest of this division, I think the future is muddy. The Vikings made it clear that they were not deserving of their 2017 finish by signing a new starting QB only to miss the 2018 postseason in Week 17. This team needs a lot of work, and I hope Cousins doesn't get blamed for all of it. The Lions look like a team on the rise. I kind of expected more from them, but if what they're doing keeps working, they're a legitimate challenger in the NFC North. The Packers...we'll see. The McCarthy ousting was a long time coming, and would have preferred to see a new HC with a defensive background. Still, I think the Packers are great when Aaron Rodgers is healthy, and maybe we'll see some fun things from LaFleur.

superjawes, in Week 12 wrote:
superjawes, in Week 1 wrote:
Keep an eye on the Giants. They were another team that was (should have been) better than their 2017 record, but now that they've dumped the terrible HC, this team should do better. I don't think they beat the Eagles in the NFC East, but they might make a WC spot...
NEVERMIND :oops:
Yeah, this was probably my biggest busted prediction. In my defense, I expected Shurmur to protect Eli Manning more. I still wouldn't write off Eli for a decent good enough 2019, but the Giants need some long-term solutions on offense, both to protect their current starting QB and to plan for a future QB.

superjawes, in Week 12 wrote:
superjawes, in Week 1 wrote:
Moving West, I see a ton of people hyped about the Rams, but I said all last year that they were overrated, bolstered by low expectations and playing in a weak division. This year, the Cards look better, and the 49ers are due for a breakout now that they have their QB troubles handled. The 49ers will win the NFC West.
No one could have expected Jimmy G to get hurt, and Arizona has shown some STUNNINGLY bad management for their rookie QB. Also, credit where credit is due. The Rams have improved this year. They will still face a tough postseason, but you have to respect the way they are playing right now.
Yeah...my reservations about the Rams never went away, and their 3-point performance yesterday will probably turn into one helluva 2019 hangover.

superjawes, in Week 12 wrote:
superjawes, in Week 1 wrote:
Finally...this is going to be a crazy QB year. Besides Luck and Rodgers coming off injury, Alex Smith, Kirk Cousins, and Case Keenum all have new jobs. Brees is coming up on the end of his career. Wentz is due back some time this year, and his backup/temporary starter is SB LII's MVP. And after all that, we have a ton of rookie/sophomore QBs with expectations.
Well, Luck is looking good (see above) and Rodgers is Rodgers (held back by the rest of his team). Wentz is struggling, but so are the rest of the Eagles. Keenum wasn't the cure-all for the Broncos, nor was Cousins for the Vikings (I am not surprised by either). Then there's Alex Smith...I feel REALLY bad for him right now :-?
We did get plenty of fun QB play this year! ...not sure what happens in 2019, though. We had a spattering of injuries, a couple of free agent busts (ish?), some rookies still learning their craft, and a handful of teams still looking for new QBs. One of my surprises was Flacco's midseason injury leading to the Lamar Jackson era in Baltimore. There's at least one QB who might be "good enough" for some teams. Maybe Elway will sign him!

superjawes, in Week 12 wrote:
And then there's Patrick Mahomes, lighting up his competition. The low scoring games for this team were in Week 4 (27 @ Denver) and Week 10 (26 vs. Arizona). The Chiefs scored 40 and 51 points in their LOSSES. Alex Smith looked good in 2017, but now we know why he went to Washington.
The man deserves to stand out. 2018 MVP and well deserved. He always looked great, even in losing games (and even beating my Colts...), and it was just fun watching the Chiefs play. I look forward to more of this. Also, we'll see Mahomes take on Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck (again) in 2019. High hopes for those games.
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Re: NFL 2018

Thu Feb 14, 2019 12:24 pm

Image
 
kvndoom
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Re: NFL 2018

Thu Feb 14, 2019 12:33 pm

Now that's comedy gold. I have a coworker from IL whose heart was already broken. Gotta rub in the salt!
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Re: NFL 2018

Thu Feb 14, 2019 3:26 pm

superjawes, in Week 12 wrote:
One of my surprises was Flacco's midseason injury leading to the Lamar Jackson era in Baltimore. There's at least one QB who might be "good enough" for some teams. Maybe Elway will sign him!


Welp.. Time to go buy some lottery tickets... I'm hoping next year Flacco's good enough to make the TD pass instead overthrowing a wide open receiver... At least the Bronco's defense should be good enough to keep them in the game..
 
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Re: NFL 2018

Thu Feb 14, 2019 5:07 pm

Before trading for Joe Flacco, the Broncos were clearly the 3rd-best team in the AFC West. After the trade, the Broncos are clearly the 3rd-best team in the AFC West.
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Re: NFL 2018

Thu Feb 14, 2019 6:46 pm

Only by a small margin... :) I've got high hopes for playoffs next year.
 
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Re: NFL 2018

Thu Feb 14, 2019 8:32 pm

The state of the AFC West...

Kansas City Chiefs: Still the best team in the division. Even if the offense slips in 2019, I think Mahomes is the real deal and will still out-perform most of his peers. Pair that with a new DC (assuming he does well), and you have one of the best teams in the league poised for a championship run.

Los Angeles Chargers: This team...I dunno. I keep being told that they're Super Bowl contenders, and they show flashes of greatness each year...but I don't see them ever making it to the big game. Solid #2 for the division assuming no one surges in 2019.

Oakland Vegas "Oakland" Santa Clara "Oakland" Raiders: This is another confusing team. I could see them taking #2 in the West or the #1 overall pick in the 2020 draft. Heck, with how many trades Chucky's made, I could see him getting the #1 pick AND taking #2 in the division. Maybe Gruden's baffling 2018 moves pay off, maybe they don't, and I can't make any predictions until I see a few games.

Denver Broncos: Three years is a long time for some players. Sure, the 2015 roster was legendary, but how much of that momentum is still there? I'm not sure you can even pass judgement on the defense with how poor the offense has been since #18 retired, and Joe Flacco is no Peyton Manning. He's a step up from Case Keenum, but it still feels like Elway is screwing this franchise long-term by not committing to a young, long-term QB. I don't see them finishing better than #3 unless Flacco puts up a league MVP season. (And how likely is that?)

tl;dr: I basically agree with JAE's "#3 in the AFC West" assessment.
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druidcent
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Re: NFL 2018

Thu Feb 14, 2019 10:16 pm

Hey.. stop raining on my parade :)

I'd say the Chiefs have the inside track to the AFC west division title, but Reid is excellent at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.. Poor clock management and game time decisions can kill this team.

With the Chargers, they are hyped up every year as contenders, and they will be strong contenders, but Rivers looks like he could go over a cliff at any time. Also, they're "home" games are just as bad as the Raiders where most of the crowd is rooting for the "away" team.

Raiders, I think you summed it up well, except the taking the #2 slot.. Gruden keeps trading all the good players for potential future picks, but most of those won't pan out. Also no one has a clue as to where they will be playing this year.

If Flacco was the quarterback last year, I can see him winning 1-2 games over Keenum, so we're going to be stuck in 7-9 to 9-7 purgatory.. but most of the games will be close, and there's always a chance. Sure, it's not the 2015 D, but except for the last 2-3 games this year, they were ridiculously good, and ranked near the top of the league. Most of the D is intact, so I can see them repeating.
 
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Re: NFL 2018

Fri Feb 15, 2019 2:12 am

Don't really care who's on what team, I'd just like FAR FEWER missed calls. :P


The NFL really needs something like this:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawk-Eye
 
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Re: NFL 2018

Fri Feb 15, 2019 4:09 am

Testing with RFID trackers (more than one is needed to determine orientation) inside the football has been going on for more than a decade. However, the NFL is not a league that quickly embraces change. NFL owners may not be as hidebound as MLB is, but they're still a group of billionaire senior citizens who are pretty content with where they're at.


Joe Flacco has been one of the most overpaid players in the NFL in the past six years. He has been paid top dollar based on the success of the Ravens 2012 defense, but his play has been poor. The best case would be that he could continue the practice of being overpaid based on the success of a good defensive team in Denver.
https://thebiglead.com/2018/04/06/the-b ... o-problem/
John Elway is demonstrably a failure at identifying quarterback talent. Instead of spending $20,000,000/year on Flacco, the Broncos should spend money hiring a really good QB scout so that they can draft a young quarterback who can perform at an average or better level. With a quarterback working under a modest rookie deal for several years, the team could afford to spend some of their salary cap keeping their elite defensive players for another few years as well as drafting or bringing in some depth for the offensive line. The Seattle Seahawks / Russell Wilson model has proven effective, but it only works if you spend your draft picks on players who are good enough to perform acceptably.
https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2019/2/14 ... ks-history
Rodger Sherman wrote:
Keenum’s stats may be bad, but Flacco’s are worse, and have been for some time. Of the 36 quarterbacks to play in at least 25 games since 2015, Flacco is dead last in yards per attempt, tied for last in touchdown percentage, and 32nd in passer rating.
The best thing {Elway} has done {as a quarterback evaluator} is be famous enough to convince Peyton Manning to sign in Denver. That helped bring the Broncos a Super Bowl, a win that will probably ensure that Elway’s legacy as an executive will be viewed as a positive regardless of what else happens. What would we be saying about his post-playing career if Manning hadn’t wanted to hang out with him?



Bad offensive line play leads to bad quarterback play which leads to a losing record which leads to the coach getting fired. Why aren't NFL GMs held accountable in these situations?
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Re: NFL 2018

Fri Feb 15, 2019 1:59 pm

JustAnEngineer wrote:
Testing with RFID trackers (more than one is needed to determine orientation) inside the football has been going on for more than a decade. However, the NFL is not a league that quickly embraces change. NFL owners may not be as hidebound as MLB is, but they're still a group of billionaire senior citizens who are pretty content with where they're at.


Joe Flacco has been one of the most overpaid players in the NFL in the past six years. He has been paid top dollar based on the success of the Ravens 2012 defense, but his play has been poor. The best case would be that he could continue the practice of being overpaid based on the success of a good defensive team in Denver.
https://thebiglead.com/2018/04/06/the-b ... o-problem/
John Elway is demonstrably a failure at identifying quarterback talent. Instead of spending $20,000,000/year on Flacco, the Broncos should spend money hiring a really good QB scout so that they can draft a young quarterback who can perform at an average or better level. With a quarterback working under a modest rookie deal for several years, the team could afford to spend some of their salary cap keeping their elite defensive players for another few years as well as drafting or bringing in some depth for the offensive line. The Seattle Seahawks / Russell Wilson model has proven effective, but it only works if you spend your draft picks on players who are good enough to perform acceptably.
https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2019/2/14 ... ks-history
Rodger Sherman wrote:
Keenum’s stats may be bad, but Flacco’s are worse, and have been for some time. Of the 36 quarterbacks to play in at least 25 games since 2015, Flacco is dead last in yards per attempt, tied for last in touchdown percentage, and 32nd in passer rating.
The best thing {Elway} has done {as a quarterback evaluator} is be famous enough to convince Peyton Manning to sign in Denver. That helped bring the Broncos a Super Bowl, a win that will probably ensure that Elway’s legacy as an executive will be viewed as a positive regardless of what else happens. What would we be saying about his post-playing career if Manning hadn’t wanted to hang out with him?



Bad offensive line play leads to bad quarterback play which leads to a losing record which leads to the coach getting fired. Why aren't NFL GMs held accountable in these situations?


You'll get no argument from me that the Bronco's and Elway need to do way better at QB scouting... Flacco and Keenum are basically equivalent, but if we can trade Keenum, then Flacco becomes a year to year rental with no dead money until we can get a real long term QB. The problem is $18-20M is about average pay for starting QBs.. I think it drops to the low end if you remove Brady, and all QBs on their rookie contracts.
 
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Re: NFL 2018

Fri Apr 12, 2019 5:53 pm

superjawes wrote:
JustAnEngineer wrote:
Even a team that is having such a terrible season that it is in the running for the first overall pick in the draft still isn't desperate enough to look the other way forever: https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2 ... en-foster/
Michael David Smith wrote:
Although Foster is a talented player, it’s hard to imagine any team will claim him on waivers, given the repeated off-field issues. His NFL career may be over.
About that...

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/reds ... n-in-2019/
John Breech wrote:
The league has announced that Foster will not have to serve a suspension in 2019. However, the linebacker has been fined two game checks over an incident that took place during the 2018 season.
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