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DancinJack
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Re: NFL 2018

Wed Nov 07, 2018 10:55 pm

Talk about a dud of a MNF game. Ugh.
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superjawes
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Re: NFL 2018

Wed Nov 07, 2018 11:17 pm

DancinJack wrote:
Talk about a dud of a MNF game. Ugh.

I should seriously start holding parties for these awful prime time games. Like watching bad movies, they can only be enjoyed with friends...and alcohol :lol:
On second thought, let's not go to TechReport. Tis a silly place.
 
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Re: NFL 2018

Wed Nov 07, 2018 11:36 pm

How are the seven eight new coaches doing halfway through the season?

Matt Nagy, Chicago Bears, 5-3
Mike Vrabel, Tennessee Titans, 4-4
Frank Reich, Indianapolis Colts, 3-5
Matt Patricia, Detroit Lions, 3-5
Steve Wilks, Arizona Cardinals, 2-6
Gregg Williams, Cleveland Browns, 0-1 (2-5-1 under Hue Jackson)
Pat Shurmur, New Jersey Giants, 1-7
Jon Gruden (aka "Chucky the Tanker"), Oakland Raiders, 1-7
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Re: NFL 2018

Sun Nov 11, 2018 7:38 pm

Week 10 - Results

Thursday Night Football 11/8
Carolina Panthers 21 at Pittsburgh Steelers 52

Sunday 11/11
New Orleans Saints 51 at Cincinnati Bengals 14
Atlanta Falcons 16 at Cleveland Browns 28
Detroit Lions 22 at Chicago Bears 34
Arizona Cardinals 14 at Kansas City Chiefs 26
New England Patriots 10 at Tennessee Titans 34
Washington Redskins 16 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3
Buffalo Bills 41 at New York Jets 10
Jacksonville Jaguars 26 at Indianapolis Colts 29
Los Angeles Chargers 20 at "Oakland" Raiders 6
Seattle Seahawks 31 at Los Angeles Rams 36
Miami Dolphins 12 at Green Bay Packers 31

Sunday Night Football
Dallas Cowboys 27 at Philadelphia Eagles 20

Monday Night Football, 11/12
New York Giants 27 at San Francisco 49ers 23

I think Atlanta and Jacksonville effectively eliminated themselves from playoff contention after losing today. With the Panthers and Saints in the division, stealing a Wild Card becomes more difficult. The NFC North remains very competitive with wins from the Bears and Packers, as does the AFC South with wins by the Titans and Colts. Seattle's loss cuts their Wild Card hopes while keeping the Rams in the hunt for home field advantage. Also, Tennessee's win over New England is a gift to Kansas City, giving extra cushion to KC's lead while bumping NE to the #3 seed.

We still have several weeks to go, but the playoff picture is becoming clearer.

SNF EDIT: Jason Garrett keeps his job (for now), and the Eagles face a deep hole on the road back to the playoffs. I wouldn't count out the underdogs completely, but they might need to run the table to have any playoff hopes.
Last edited by superjawes on Tue Nov 13, 2018 8:27 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: NFL 2018

Sun Nov 11, 2018 7:42 pm

Theoretically, even the 1-7 New York Jersey Giants and 1-8 Oakland Raiders Tankers could still make the playoffs if they win all of their remaining games and get a lot of help from other teams.
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/standings/playoffrace

Practically, FiveThirtyEight gives eleven of the thirty-two NFL teams a ≤4% chance of making the playoffs:
Detroit Lions (3-6), Jacksonville Jaguars (3-6), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-6), Denver Broncos (3-6), Buffalo Bills (3-7), Cleveland Browns (3-6-1), San Francisco 49ers (2-7), New Jersey Jets (3-7), Arizona Cardinals (2-7), New Jersey Giants (1-7) and Oakland Raiders (1-8).
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... id=rrpromo

Six teams are nearly locks at more than 90% chance of being among the twelve teams to make the playoffs:
Los Angeles Rams (9-1), Kansas City Chiefs (9-1), New Orleans Saints (8-1), New England Patriots (7-3), Los Angeles Chargers (7-2) and Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2-1).

The six teams with a 63-71% chance to make one of the remaining six playoff spots are:
Carolina Panthers (6-3), Chicago Bears (6-3), Houston Texans (6-3), Washington Redskins (6-3), Tennessee Titans (5-4) and Minnesota Vikings (5-3-1).

If you're a fan of the seven teams with a 21-34% chance at the playoffs, keep hope alive as long as your team keeps winning:
Cincinnati Bengals (5-4), Seattle Seahawks (4-5), Philadelphia Eagles (4-5), Dallas Cowboys(4-5), Baltimore Ravens (4-5), Green Bay Packers (4-4-1), Atlanta Falcons (4-5).
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Re: NFL 2018

Mon Nov 12, 2018 6:56 am

Gregg Williams is now 1-1 as head coach in Cleveland after the Browns beat the Falcons yesterday. At 0.500, Williams currently has the best winning percentage of any head coach in the twenty year history of the re-incorporated NEW Cleveland Browns. Here's the list in chronological order: Chris Palmer 0.156, Butch Davis 0.414, Terry Robiskie 0.167, Romeo Crennel 0.375, Eric Mangini 0.313, Pat Shurmur 0.281, Rob Chudzinski 0.250, Mike Pettine 0.313, Hue Jackson 0.088 and Gregg Williams 0.500.

Yesterday, Bill Belichick's Patriots lost rather embarrassingly to a Tennessee Titans team coached by ex-Patriot linebacker Mike Vrabel. Belichick has a 0.744 winning percentage in nineteen seasons as head coach in New England. Last week, NFL Films had Bill Belichick mic'd up for the game against the Packers.
http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-micd-up/0 ... ck-Week-9#

Bill Belichick had a 0.450 winning percentage in six seasons and was 0.500 in the playoffs as head coach of the OLD Cleveland Browns from 1991-1995. I was just pondering an alternate football reality where Art Modell didn't fire Belicheck as the head coach and move his team from Cleveland to Baltimore (Ravens) at the end of the 1995 season. Follow that mind-bender up with a different alternate football reality where Bill Belichick remained the head coach of the Jets for more than six days in 1997 (pre-Parcells) or for more than one day in January 2000 (post-Parcells).
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The Egg
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Re: NFL 2018

Mon Nov 12, 2018 10:53 am

Belichick is a great coach, but he's also had a HOF quarterback his entire tenure in New England. There's no telling how things would have turned out for him if Brady had gone elsewhere.
 
superjawes
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Re: NFL 2018

Wed Nov 14, 2018 9:26 am

That was quite the fiasco in Mexico, eh? MNF moved to LA, and this should be one of the best weeks in pro football.

Week 11

Thursday Night Football 11/14
Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks

Sunday 11/17
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens
Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Giants
Pittsburgh Steelers at Jacksonville Jaguars
Houston Texans at Washington Redskins
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts
Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers
"Oakland" Raiders at Arizona Cardinals
Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints

Sunday Night Football
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears

Monday Night Football, 11/18, NOT in Mexico!
Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Rams

Normally I would point out the good games to watch this week, but besides Raiders/Cardinals and Bucs/Giants, every game should be good. They all have SOMETHING important happening. The Broncos and Lions could play to disrupt their opponents' playoff hopes, we've got some excellent prime time football on Sunday and Monday nights, and everyone else is playing to stay alive.

With all that going on, I don't think there are any "safe" picks this week. So instead, I'll make picks in the best matchups. I like the Bears at home for control of the NFC North. I also like the Chiefs and Saints as the best teams in their respective conferences. But again, none of these picks are safe, and the games should be good.
On second thought, let's not go to TechReport. Tis a silly place.
 
JustAnEngineer
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Re: NFL 2018

Wed Nov 14, 2018 8:38 pm

superjawes wrote:
I would point out the good games to watch this week, but besides Raiders/Cardinals and Bucs/Giants, every game should be good. They all have SOMETHING important happening. ... the games should be good.
That's what Neil Paine said, too.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ch ... uper-bowl/

Their system actually ranks the Vikings (5-3-1) at the Bears (6-3) on Sunday night as the most significant game of the weekend because the winner is more than 80% likely to win the NFC North title and the loser has a 50/50 chance to miss the playoffs. The Chiefs (9-1) at the Rams (9-1) on Monday night is the highest quality game but it doesn't have as much riding on it because the loser is still almost certain to make the playoffs.
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DancinJack
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Re: NFL 2018

Wed Nov 14, 2018 8:47 pm

Kinda weaksauce they moved the KC/LAR game to LA. Could have played at a "neutral" site.
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Re: NFL 2018

Wed Nov 14, 2018 11:42 pm

DancinJack wrote:
Kinda weaksauce they moved the KC/LAR game to LA. Could have played at a "neutral" site.

I was reading that the condition of the field was so terrible that they’d be risking the safety of the players. Beyond bad. Many of the players were considering not playing.
 
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Re: NFL 2018

Thu Nov 15, 2018 8:37 am

The Egg wrote:
DancinJack wrote:
Kinda weaksauce they moved the KC/LAR game to LA. Could have played at a "neutral" site.

I was reading that the condition of the field was so terrible that they’d be risking the safety of the players. Beyond bad. Many of the players were considering not playing.

This, and it is technically a home game for the Rams, so moving it "back" to their home field makes sense.

Also, where would a neutral site be? And would said neutral site be able to draw enough fans to fill the stadium?
On second thought, let's not go to TechReport. Tis a silly place.
 
DancinJack
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Re: NFL 2018

Thu Nov 15, 2018 11:46 am

I wasn't commenting on WHY they moved it in the first place. I could care less about that part.

The second part though, about it being a home game for LAR, makes more sense now. I don't know where the "neutral" site would be, but I'm sure they could fill it up for the most part. Hell, do it in Tempe or Phoenix. (I don't care where I'm just picking a place between Mexico City, LA, and KC.)
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UberGerbil
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Re: NFL 2018

Thu Nov 15, 2018 12:47 pm

DancinJack wrote:
The second part though, about it being a home game for LAR, makes more sense now. I don't know where the "neutral" site would be, but I'm sure they could fill it up for the most part. Hell, do it in Tempe or Phoenix. (I don't care where I'm just picking a place between Mexico City, LA, and KC.)

The home team in these overseas matchups are required by the NFL to keep their stadium available (eg no booking concerts etc on the date) precisely for contingencies like this. It's never really a neutral site game; it's a home game played elsewhere (the home team has one less game played in their home stadium). So by rule if they weren't going to play it in Mexico City they were going to move it back to LA, and everybody on both teams knew that (even if some of the fans didn't).
 
DancinJack
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Re: NFL 2018

Thu Nov 15, 2018 1:15 pm

UberGerbil wrote:
The home team in these overseas matchups are required by the NFL to keep their stadium available (eg no booking concerts etc on the date) precisely for contingencies like this. It's never really a neutral site game; it's a home game played elsewhere (the home team has one less game played in their home stadium). So by rule if they weren't going to play it in Mexico City they were going to move it back to LA, and everybody on both teams knew that (even if some of the fans didn't).

Yeah, I get that part. But let's not confuse it here. A game in Mexico City != a game in LA.
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Re: NFL 2018

Thu Nov 15, 2018 1:31 pm

Much like Thursday night games, I don’t like when they force teams to play overseas, because I think it puts them at a competitive disadvantage relative to other teams in their division. Of all the international cities, Mexico City probably makes the most sense though; I just wouldn’t want it to come at the cost of an important player(s) from two of the best teams getting hurt.

With all the NFL’s billions of dollars, you’ve gotta wonder why nobody knew or did anything about one of their marquee games until the last minute.
 
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Re: NFL 2018

Thu Nov 15, 2018 3:09 pm

DancinJack wrote:
Yeah, I get that part. But let's not confuse it here. A game in Mexico City != a game in LA.
Well, originally the game was going to be in LA so the Rams were going to enjoy the ~7% NFL home field advantage (though it might be a lot less, given their current stadium situation). Then the game got "promoted" to Mexico City, and they lost that due to the neutral field. Now they have it back. The situation for their opponent is reversed, of course (though KC was going to get the usual 8 games with a home field advantage whereas LA was only going to get 7, and now that missing one is back). It doesn't make that much difference in any event, but I don't see the injustice here: the schedule is as it would have been but for the league's attempts to throw wrenches into both teams practice and preparation in the name of pushing the game into new markets.

Unless you're talking about the game-day atmosphere in Mexico City, but you wouldn't get that in Tempe or Phoenix, either. And why Phoenix? They already have their own NFL team. And why pick a place between Mexico City and LA and KC? A plane trip is a plane trip; the total transit times aren't that much different. And like I said, this wasn't supposed to be neutral site game in the first place, home field advantage isn't that great, both teams have already been disrupted, and they're constrained by the (collectively bargained) rules that were already in place to revert to the true home stadium anyway.

The Egg wrote:
Much like Thursday night games, I don’t like when they force teams to play overseas, because I think it puts them at a competitive disadvantage relative to other teams in their division. Of all the international cities, Mexico City probably makes the most sense though; I just wouldn’t want it to come at the cost of an important player(s) from two of the best teams getting hurt.
Are you sure about Mexico City making the most sense in terms of players not getting hurt? It's at 7,400 feet, 50% higher than Denver, and it has a significant air pollution problem. The teams had been making preparations to mitigate that (the Rams were practicing in Colorado Springs) but it was still going to be an issue. The games in Europe just have a longer plane flight (though not any longer than, say, the Seahawks playing in Florida) and some jet lag. I would suspect the chance of getting hurt at sea level in London is significantly less than at altitude in smog in Mexico City.

With all the NFL’s billions of dollars, you’ve gotta wonder why nobody knew or did anything about one of their marquee games until the last minute.

They knew about it for a while (there have been reports questioning the field condition for days now) but it's those very billions that they want to keep growing that made them try to play the game there in the first place and kept them on that path until the player's union essentially rebelled. If it was up to just the league and the owners, they'd still be playing in Mexico City, on jagged gravel and asphalt if necessary. As the CTE issue has demonstrated, the league isn't interested in player health unless it threatens some of those billions.
 
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Re: NFL 2018

Sat Nov 17, 2018 11:21 am

I don't like the idea of blaming coaches for losses. I think they get too much credit for wins, too much blame for losses.

That being said, Mike McCarthy's decision to punt with 4 and 2, with 4 minutes left down 3 and you have Aaron Rodgers was a pretty awful decision
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Re: NFL 2018

Sat Nov 17, 2018 1:06 pm

idchafee wrote:
I don't like the idea of blaming coaches for losses. I think they get too much credit for wins, too much blame for losses.

That being said, Mike McCarthy's decision to punt with 4 and 2, with 4 minutes left down 3 and you have Aaron Rodgers was a pretty awful decision

I've always felt that offensive & defensive coordinators were the most important coaching positions. Of course they're chosen by the head coach to match his philosophy, but ultimately they set the schemes, create and draw up all the plays, and then do the playcalling. Of course there's input from the HC (and sometimes there's exceptions where the HC handles some or all of these duties), but the choice of coordinators is still huge.

Just look at the Bears this year --- 1st year head coach has an awesome defense mainly because he retained an excellent DC and kept continuity on that half of the team.
 
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Re: NFL 2018

Sat Nov 17, 2018 1:59 pm

The Egg wrote:
I've always felt that offensive & defensive coordinators were the most important coaching positions. Of course they're chosen by the head coach to match his philosophy, but ultimately they set the schemes, create and draw up all the plays, and then do the playcalling. Of course there's input from the HC (and sometimes there's exceptions where the HC handles some or all of these duties), but the choice of coordinators is still huge.

Just look at the Bears this year --- 1st year head coach has an awesome defense mainly because he retained an excellent DC and kept continuity on that half of the team.

Doesn't hurt to get Khalil Mack at the start of the season, either.
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superjawes
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Re: NFL 2018

Sat Nov 17, 2018 2:38 pm

Mike McCarthy is the problem in Green Bay (at least one of them). His play calling is just...BAD. Forget 4th & 2 on Thursday, go back to the LA game. Called a run up the middle FROM HIS OWN END ZONE. That Super Bowl win in 2011 is looking more and more a product of Aaron Rodgers paired with a young (and strong) defense.
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Re: NFL 2018

Sun Nov 18, 2018 7:23 pm

Week 11 - Results

Thursday Night Football 11/14
Green Bay Packers 24 at Seattle Seahawks 27

Sunday 11/17
Cincinnati Bengals 21 at Baltimore Ravens 24
Dallas Cowboys 22 at Atlanta Falcons 19
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 35 at New York Giants 38
Pittsburgh Steelers 20 at Jacksonville Jaguars 16
Houston Texans 23 at Washington Redskins 21
Tennessee Titans 10 at Indianapolis Colts 38
Carolina Panthers 19 at Detroit Lions 20
Denver Broncos 23 at Los Angeles Chargers 22
"Oakland" Raiders 23 at Arizona Cardinals 21
Philadelphia Eagles 7 at New Orleans Saints 45

Sunday Night Football
Minnesota Vikings 20 at Chicago Bears 25

Monday Night Football, 11/18, NOT in Mexico!
Kansas City Chiefs 51 at Los Angeles Rams 54

And Week 11 does not disappoint. The only blowouts (prior to prime time games) were in Indy and New Orleans, with SEVEN games being decided by a field goal or less. Even the Bucs/Giants turned into a shootout.

Bad QB news, though. Alex Smith goes down with a badly broken leg, leaving the door open for the Cowboys to snag the NFC East. The Titans weren't in a great spot for their postseason hopes, so tacking on another injury to Marcus Mariota AND the divisional loss might be the effective end of their chances. Oh, and Joe Flacco didn't play today. Fortunately for the Ravens, Lamar Jackson managed his first NFL start keeping Baltimore in the playoff hunt.

MFN EDIT: I believed that the Chiefs were the best team in the AFC, and I still believe that. Some miscues on defense put them in a hole, but they turned it around and manufactured a Monday night thriller.

Also worth noting that, although they got the win, the Rams were exposed more than the Chiefs tonight. I think we all knew that KC had some defensive issues, but seeing the Rams give up 51 should provide good film to study.
Last edited by superjawes on Tue Nov 20, 2018 12:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
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The Egg
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Re: NFL 2018

Mon Nov 19, 2018 10:14 am

DancinJack wrote:
The Egg wrote:
I've always felt that offensive & defensive coordinators were the most important coaching positions. Of course they're chosen by the head coach to match his philosophy, but ultimately they set the schemes, create and draw up all the plays, and then do the playcalling. Of course there's input from the HC (and sometimes there's exceptions where the HC handles some or all of these duties), but the choice of coordinators is still huge.

Just look at the Bears this year --- 1st year head coach has an awesome defense mainly because he retained an excellent DC and kept continuity on that half of the team.

Doesn't hurt to get Khalil Mack at the start of the season, either.

For sure, but still. Article today on NFL.com
 
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Re: NFL 2018

Mon Nov 19, 2018 7:02 pm

The Butt Fumbler is now the backup QB for the 'Skins.
What we have today is way too much pluribus and not enough unum.
 
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Re: NFL 2018

Mon Nov 19, 2018 7:32 pm

Captain Ned wrote:
The Butt Fumbler is now the backup QB for the 'Skins.

I mean, I don't care how anyone feels about Kaepernick at this point. The fact that Sanchez just got a contract and Kaep didn't is insane.
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Re: NFL 2018

Mon Nov 19, 2018 7:41 pm

DancinJack wrote:
I mean, I don't care how anyone feels about Kaepernick at this point. The fact that Sanchez just got a contract and Kaep didn't is insane.
The fact that Nathan Peterman got multiple starts could be the beginning and end of Kaep's collusion lawsuit.

But let's be fair to Sanchez. He might have THAT on his record, but he's also an experienced QB (with experience in multiple systems), and he should be pretty affordable, which is especially important since Washington paid Alex Smith well.
On second thought, let's not go to TechReport. Tis a silly place.
 
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Re: NFL 2018

Mon Nov 19, 2018 7:48 pm

I don't dispute any of your points, but Washington could WIN the East with an actual QB. McCoy and Sanchez are just gonna throw (literally and figuratively) the season away.

Anyway, I just think it's all such BS. Kaep is better than at least half the QBs starting in the league right now.
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Re: NFL 2018

Mon Nov 19, 2018 8:29 pm

DancinJack wrote:
Colin Kaepernick is better than at least half the QBs starting in the league right now.
Hmmm... Let's run down the 2018 ranking of total QBR and stop when we get to a quarterback that's playing worse than Kaepernick (who posted a 23rd-place QBR of 49.2 among the 30 QBs that played most of the 2016 season and a 29th place out of 33 with a QBR of 43.4 in 2015):
1 Drew Brees - 87.7
2 Pat Mahomes - 83.9
3 Mitch Trubisky - 76.1
4 Jared Goff
5 Andrew Luck
6 Philip Rivers
7 Matt Ryan - 70.8
8 Ben Roethlisberger
9 Tom Brady
10 Ryan Fitzpatrick - 65.4
11 Kirk Cousins
12 Andy Dalton
13 Cam Newton
14 Carson Wentz - 64.2
*-.-*-.-*-.-*-. (Insert 2014 Colin Kaepernick here.)
15 Jameis Winston - 60.3
16 Russell Wilson
17 Marcus Mariota
18 Aaron Rodgers
19 Joe Flacco
20 Deshaun Watson - 56.2
21 Matt Stafford
22 Blake Bortles
23 Dak Prescott - 50.0
*-.-*-.-*-.-*-. (Insert 2016 Colin Kaepernick here.)
24 Alex Smith - 48.7
25 Eli Manning
26 Baker Mayfield (rookie)
27 Derek Carr
28 Case Keenum - 45.4
29 C.J. Beathard - 43.6
*-.-*-.-*-.-*-. (Insert 2015 Colin Kaepernick here.)
30 Brock Osweiler - 38.2
31 Sam Darnold (rookie) - 33.0
32 Josh Allen (rookie) - 32.1
33 Josh Rosen (rookie) - 31.2
Nathan Peterman - 6.5 (unqualified due to playing only 106 QB plays)
Nick Foles - 56.3 (unqualified)
Nick Mullens - 79.9 (unqualified)
Taysom Hill - 51.2 (unqualified)
Matt Barkley - 84.7 (unqualified)
Colt McCoy - 76.8 (unqualified)
Jeff Driskel - 99.4 (unqualified)

If a team were really confident that he could play like 2013 Colin Kaepernick, he'd certainly get a job, even with all of his baggage. However, 2015 / 2016 / 2017 / 2018 Colin Kaepernick doesn't appear to be worth the headache.
Last edited by JustAnEngineer on Mon Nov 19, 2018 8:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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DancinJack
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Re: NFL 2018

Mon Nov 19, 2018 8:52 pm

I'm not sure comparing a past QBR from different seasons to this years is very accurate?

But if we really want to, Sanchez has an all-time high QBR (for the season) of 55.3.
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druidcent
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Re: NFL 2018

Mon Nov 19, 2018 11:24 pm

Did the Chiefs and Rams forget their defenses in Mexico? I think they just grabbed some random people and stuffed them into the uniforms..
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