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JustAnEngineer
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Re: NFL 2018

Tue Sep 11, 2018 5:48 am

All seven new head coaches lost their first game.
Matt Nagy, Chicago Bears lost 23-24 to the Packers
Pat Shurmur, New Jersey Giants lost 15-20 to the Jaguars
Mike Vrabel, Tennessee Titans lost 20-27 to the Dolphins
Frank Reich, Indianapolis Colts lost 23-34 to the Bengals
Steve Wilks, Arizona Cardinals lost 6-24 to the Redskins
John Gruden, Oakland Raiders lost 13-33 to the Rams
Matt Patricia, Detroit Lions lost 17-48 to the Jets

Keep in mind that NFL teams usually get new head coaches because they are bad teams that got their previous coach fired.
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Re: NFL 2018

Tue Sep 11, 2018 8:43 am

JustAnEngineer wrote:
All seven new head coaches lost their first game.
Matt Nagy, Chicago Bears lost 23-24 to the Packers
Pat Shurmur, New Jersey Giants lost 15-20 to the Jaguars
Mike Vrabel, Tennessee Titans lost 20-27 to the Dolphins
Frank Reich, Indianapolis Colts lost 23-34 to the Bengals
Steve Wilks, Arizona Cardinals lost 6-24 to the Redskins
John Gruden, Oakland Raiders lost 13-33 to the Rams
Matt Patricia, Detroit Lions lost 17-48 to the Jets

Keep in mind that NFL teams usually get new head coaches because they are bad teams that got their previous coach fired.
To be fair to some of those guys...

Bears lost a rivalry game, on the road, against the best QB in the league. I think they'll be fine in the long run.
The Giants could have upset the Jags, but that was a close finish against a decent team.
Florida games in the early season are not kind to visiting teams. I'd give the Titans a couple weeks.
My Colts are still rusty and need to figure some things out, but they still look much better than the Pagano Colts.

The Cards and Lions don't really have excuses, though. Arizona's offense was non-existent after spending money to get a glass/paper QB under center. Fans are going to be rabid trying to get Josh Allen on the field. I genuinely thought Matt Stafford would be good, but I can't defend a meltdown like that, and the rest of the team was pretty bad, too. I had much higher expectations for that team, especially on defense, considering Patricia's background.

That just leaves Gruden, and this is the strangest one. I mentioned before that I wasn't convinced that the Raiders were "bad" the last few years. I thought they would have been fine with a little more work. Now Gruden comes in, blows everything up, and after all that...they still feel middle-ish? They showed some promise (especially the 1st half offense), but they also look like they need significant work. They seem too good to pull a "tank the season for draft picks", but not good enough to really contend in the AFC West.
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Re: NFL 2018

Tue Sep 11, 2018 9:50 am

Don't think of the Raiders as Middle-ish. Think of the Rams as you did the Seahawks 3-4 years ago. They are at their peak defensively, with a very, very good offense.Strong RB, solid WR, but not quite as good of a QB (but who may mature nicely). That front 7 for the Rams is terrifying.
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Re: NFL 2018

Tue Sep 11, 2018 9:57 am

superjawes wrote:
Bears lost a rivalry game, on the road, against the best QB in the league. I think they'll be fine in the long run.

I think the entire state of Wisconsin fell silent when Rodgers grabbed his knee.
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Re: NFL 2018

Wed Sep 12, 2018 9:02 am

I'm going to make a note right now that Hurricane Florence is going to threaten the Carolinas and Georgia (at least). Here's hoping that everyone stays safe, and no one ends up in harms way because of football.

Week 2

Thursday Night Football 9/13
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals

Sunday 9/16
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons
Indianapolis Colts at Washington Redskins
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans
Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets
Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers
Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints
Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams
New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars
"Oakland" Raiders at Denver Broncos

Sunday Night Football
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys

Monday Night Football, 9/17
Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears

Reminder that it is still September, and Florida is still hot and humid. I would love to take the Eagles defense over Tampa, but the weather will probably wear them down faster than expected. Also reminder that it is only week 2, and we shouldn't make hasty predictions on limited data...but I will.

The Chiefs look legit, and the Steelers were struggling. The Steelers also have a nasty habit of losing to teams they should crush (::cough:Jacksonville:cough::), so KC upset the home opener. Even though the Bills got annihilated last week, they should do a little better at home...but better than godawful is still pretty bad. Chargers get a feel-good win on the road.

The 49ers still need to make some things work, but they are in much better shape than the Lions, and the Lions are traveling West, so San Fran takes this one. The Cardinals were absolutely terrible on offense, so while I still have reservations about how "good" the Rams are, they will win their home opener and first division game. Both the Giants and Cowboys have some issues to solve, but Eli and company generally do well in Dallas, so we'll be talking about how the Giants are totally turned around and/or the Cowboys are dead in the water by Monday morning.
Last edited by superjawes on Tue Sep 18, 2018 8:19 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: NFL 2018

Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:34 am

Now if only the Ravens will continue to play that well against good teams...
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Re: NFL 2018

Thu Sep 13, 2018 8:02 pm

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wh ... ldout-now/
Josh Hermsmeyer, FiveThirtyEight wrote:
If Le'Veon Bell’s overriding goal is to get paid and maximize his earnings, his best course of action is to report immediately to team headquarters and start cashing his checks.
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Re: NFL 2018

Sat Sep 15, 2018 7:31 pm

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Re: NFL 2018

Sun Sep 16, 2018 3:20 pm

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Re: NFL 2018

Sun Sep 16, 2018 6:35 pm

Week 2 - Results

Thursday Night Football 9/13
Baltimore Ravens 23 at Cincinnati Bengals 34

Sunday 9/16
Carolina Panthers 24 at Atlanta Falcons 31
Indianapolis Colts 21 at Washington Redskins 9
Houston Texans 17 at Tennessee Titans 20
Philadelphia Eagles 21 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27
Kansas City Chiefs 42 at Pittsburgh Steelers 37
Miami Dolphins 20 at New York Jets 12
Los Angeles Chargers 31 at Buffalo Bills 20
Minnesota Vikings 29 at Green Bay Packers 29 - TIE
Cleveland Browns 18 at New Orleans Saints 21
Detroit Lions 27 at San Francisco 49ers 30
Arizona Cardinals 0 at Los Angeles Rams 34
New England Patriots 20 at Jacksonville Jaguars 31
"Oakland" Raiders 19 at Denver Broncos 20

Sunday Night Football
New York Giants 13 at Dallas Cowboys 20

Monday Night Football, 9/17
Seattle Seahawks 17 at Chicago Bears 24

Two weeks, two ties. And a terrible week for place kickers (I recommend following Pat McAfee for his Special Teams breakdowns).
Last edited by superjawes on Tue Sep 18, 2018 8:19 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: NFL 2018

Sun Sep 16, 2018 6:56 pm

superjawes wrote:
A terrible week for place kickers.
Do you suppose that Dan Bailey's phone is blowing up about now? Over the past seven seasons, he was the second most accurate kicker in the league.


JustAnEngineer wrote:
All seven new head coaches lost their first game.
How did they do in week two?
Matt Nagy, Chicago Bears host the Seahawks on Monday night.
Frank Reich, Indianapolis Colts beat the Redskins 21-9
Mike Vrabel, Tennessee Titans beat the Texans 20-17
John Gruden, Oakland Raiders lost to the Broncos 19-20
Matt Patricia, Detroit Lions lost to the 49ers, 27-30
Pat Shurmur, New Jersey Giants lost to the Cowboys 13-20
Steve Wilks, Arizona Cardinals lost to the Rams, 0-34


Is it time for fan over-reactions yet?
Historically, teams that start 2-0 have an excellent chance of making the playoffs. Here are rough probabilities of making the playoffs for the teams with the best and worst starts this season:
The Buccaneers (70%), Bengals (67%), Dolphins (70%), Broncos (53%), Chiefs (66%), Jaguars (63%) and Rams (64%) have all started the season 2-0.
The Steelers (20%) are 0-1-1.
The Lions (14%), Texans (11%), Raiders (13%), Cardinals (14%), Giants (17%) and Bills (9%) have started 0-2. Barring another improbable tie, the Seahawks (26%) or the Bears (21%) will fall to 0-2 Monday night.
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Re: NFL 2018

Mon Sep 17, 2018 8:51 am

The Winless
Buffalo Bills
Cleveland Browns
Pittsburgh Steelers
Houston Texans
"Oakland" Raiders
New York Giants
Detroit Lions
Chicago Bears
Arizona Cardinals
Seattle Seahawks

The Undefeated
Miami Dolphins
Cincinnati Bengals
Jacksonville Jaguars
Kansas City Chiefs
Denver Broncos
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Los Angeles Rams

*Indicates First Year Head Coach

Fans are already overreacting, as fans tend to overreact to everything. I'd really look more to weeks 7-9 to start making solid playoff predictions. Some teams are going to get much better, some are going to stay the same, and I suspect a few will get much, much worse.

As for the above lists, we might as well start keeping track of who needs a W and who's due for an L. Among those winless first year HCs, Gruden and Wilks should be the only ones sweating right now. I think the Lions and Giants looked better, but they also played some tough games in weeks 1 and 2, so they have some time to bring things together. On the other hand, Wilks' offense is really, really bad, and he just needs points to insure his future in AZ. Gruden is (should be) in the hot seat early after blowing up his roster, raising expectations, then going 0-2. For that, I think he needs to produce results faster than the other First Years. It will be a long road to pass KC and Denver (and LAC aren't looking terrible, either).

EDIT: Bears won, leaving four First Year HCs without wins.
Last edited by superjawes on Wed Sep 19, 2018 9:53 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: NFL 2018

Mon Sep 17, 2018 2:17 pm

JustAnEngineer wrote:
superjawes wrote:
A terrible week for place kickers.
Do you suppose that Dan Bailey's phone is blowing up about now? Over the past seven seasons, he was the second most accurate kicker in the league.
The answer was "yes", apparently.

In other news, my Colts are probably going to lose in Philly, and there will be no shame in the loss...hopefully.
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Re: NFL 2018

Mon Sep 17, 2018 8:14 pm

JustAnEngineer wrote:
A sad end for Josh Gordon's talent:
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/brow ... -saturday/
Can Bill Belichick turn another troubled but talented player into an all-pro?
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/josh ... -treasure/
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Re: NFL 2018

Wed Sep 19, 2018 10:07 am

Week 3

Thursday Night Football 9/20
New York Jets at Cleveland Browns

Sunday 9/23
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons
Green Bay Packers at Washington Redskins
Indianapolis Colts at Philadelphia Eagles
Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings
"Oakland" Raiders at Miami Dolphins
Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens
Cincinnati Bengals at Carolina Panthers
New York Giants at Houston Texans
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars
San Francisco 49ers at Kansas City Chiefs
Los Angeles Cage Match, Chargers "at" Rams
Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks
Chicago Bears at Arizona Cardinals

Sunday Night Football
New England Patriots at Detroit Lions

Monday Night Football, 9/24
Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I probably shouldn't be too high on the Chiefs, but they are good, playing at home against a work-in-progress team. Buffalo will continue to struggle, especially in Minnesota (who are looking to wash that tie out of their mouth). The Raiders are struggling, and they'll be traveling a long way to a hot and humid game, so the struggle will continue. The Cardinals are just bad. Barring a miracle from Josh Allen, the Bears win big in AZ.

Generally speaking, I think the Saints/Falcons game should be good, and Patricia *might* have some surprises for his old team in prime time. The game in Philly might have some magic, too. Wentz is slated to return, and the Colts shocked everyone by defending against the run. Philly should win that one, but hopefully it will be fun to watch for everyone.
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Re: NFL 2018

Thu Sep 20, 2018 10:46 pm

At worst, 2018 will still be Hue Jackson's best season with the Browns (1-14-1).

Congratulations, Cleveland!
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Re: NFL 2018

Thu Sep 20, 2018 11:37 pm

JustAnEngineer wrote:
JustAnEngineer wrote:
A sad end for Josh Gordon's talent:
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/brow ... -saturday/
Can Bill Belichick turn another troubled but talented player into an all-pro?
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/josh ... -treasure/

I dunno, I really don't with Gordon. Belichick is capable, but is Gordon willing will be the real question.
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Re: NFL 2018

Thu Sep 20, 2018 11:41 pm

superjawes wrote:
Congratulations, Cleveland!
Dilly dilly!
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Re: NFL 2018

Fri Sep 21, 2018 9:33 am

Last night's win gives Cleveland the #10 overall record.

Regardless of what happens on Sunday, they will have a better record going into Week 4 than the 0-2 Seahawks, Raiders, Giants, Texans, Lions, Bills, Cardinals, and Jets.

With their Week 1 tie, the Browns managed to join the .500 Club in an odd-numbered week. There are several teams already in the club at 1-1, and Week 3 ties would keep them there. Any bets on that happening?
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Re: NFL 2018

Sun Sep 23, 2018 6:33 pm

Week 3 - Results

Thursday Night Football 9/20
New York Jets 17 at Cleveland Browns 21

Sunday 9/23
New Orleans Saints 43 at Atlanta Falcons 37
Green Bay Packers at Washington Redskins 31
Indianapolis Colts 16 at Philadelphia Eagles 20
Buffalo Bills 27 at Minnesota Vikings 6 :oops:
"Oakland" Raiders 20 at Miami Dolphins 28
Denver Broncos 14 at Baltimore Ravens 27
Cincinnati Bengals at Carolina Panthers 31
New York Giants 27 at Houston Texans 22
Tennessee Titans 9 at Jacksonville Jaguars 6
San Francisco 49ers 27 at Kansas City Chiefs 38
Los Angeles Cage Match, Chargers 23 "at" Rams 35
Dallas Cowboys 13 at Seattle Seahawks 24
Chicago Bears 16 at Arizona Cardinals 14

Sunday Night Football
New England Patriots 10 at Detroit Lions 26

Monday Night Football, 9/24
Pittsburgh Steelers 30 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27
Last edited by superjawes on Mon Sep 24, 2018 11:29 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: NFL 2018

Sun Sep 23, 2018 7:42 pm

superjawes wrote:
Week 3 - Results

Thursday Night Football 9/20
New York Jets 17 at Cleveland Browns 21

Sunday 9/23
New Orleans Saints 43 at Atlanta Falcons 37
Green Bay Packers at Washington Redskins 31
Indianapolis Colts 16 at Philadelphia Eagles 20
Buffalo Bills 27 at Minnesota Vikings 6 :oops:
"Oakland" Raiders 20 at Miami Dolphins 28
Denver Broncos 14 at Baltimore Ravens 27
Cincinnati Bengals at Carolina Panthers 31
New York Giants 27 at Houston Texans 22
Tennessee Titans 9 at Jacksonville Jaguars 6
San Francisco 49ers 27 at Kansas City Chiefs 38
Los Angeles Cage Match, Chargers 23 "at" Rams 35
Dallas Cowboys 13 at Seattle Seahawks 24
Chicago Bears 16 at Arizona Cardinals 14

Sunday Night Football
New England Patriots at Detroit Lions

Monday Night Football, 9/24
Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers



As a life long Bills fan it was great to see them look this good against the Vikings.
Especially Josh Allen, who was my last choice of who I would have drafted for qb in the last draft.
I dont expect them to win many games this year, but this one was a quality win.
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Re: NFL 2018

Sun Sep 23, 2018 7:56 pm

rogue426 wrote:
As a life long Bills fan it was great to see them look this good against the Vikings.
Especially Josh Allen, who was my last choice of who I would have drafted for qb in the last draft.
I dont expect them to win many games this year, but this one was a quality win.

I genuinely do not know what happened there. I expected Minnesota to crush the Bills (at home!)...I guess they had something to prove after Vontae Davis retired :lol:
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Re: NFL 2018

Sun Sep 23, 2018 8:36 pm

As a fan of the Texans since their inception, I am really hating football right now.

At least last year the entire team died, so there was no expectation of success but this just godawful and painful. Is this what it's like to be a Browns fan?
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Re: NFL 2018

Sun Sep 23, 2018 8:45 pm

paulWTAMU wrote:
As a fan of the Texans since their inception, I am really hating football right now.

At least last year the entire team died, so there was no expectation of success but this just godawful and painful. Is this what it's like to be a Browns fan?

Nah dude, the Browns won this week. They're living on cloud nine right now.
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Re: NFL 2018

Sun Sep 23, 2018 9:39 pm

paulWTAMU wrote:
At least last year the entire team died, so there was no expectation of success but this just godawful and painful. Is this what it's like to be a Browns fan?
Your Texans have always been the Texans. In order to feel like a Browns fan, your team would need to move to a new city and get a new name, then a "New Texans" team would have to be created in Houston only to be awful for ~20 years (and counting).

Although I am serious when I say that I want to tailgate with the Cleveland faithful. It takes a LOT of dedication to stick with your team when you're bad for THAT long.
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Re: NFL 2018

Mon Sep 24, 2018 3:38 pm

The original Houston football team did move; they're now the Titans. Bastards kept the rights and history to the Oilers name.
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Re: NFL 2018

Mon Sep 24, 2018 4:16 pm

paulWTAMU wrote:
The original Houston football team did move; they're now the Titans. Bastards kept the rights and history to the Oilers name.

Okay. I kind of forgot about the Oilers. Still, the Texans haven't been "awful" for their entire history, at least not wrt the AFC South.

superjawes wrote:
...the 49ers are due for a breakout now that they have their QB troubles handled. The 49ers will win the NFC West.

Well that prediction lasted all of three weeks...
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Re: NFL 2018

Mon Sep 24, 2018 4:22 pm

superjawes wrote:
superjawes wrote:
...the 49ers are due for a breakout now that they have their QB troubles handled. The 49ers will win the NFC West.

Well that prediction lasted all of three weeks...


So you're saying I can blame you now that my team is going to go 1-15?
 
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Re: NFL 2018

Mon Sep 24, 2018 11:44 pm

superjawes wrote:
The Winless
Buffalo Bills
Cleveland Browns
Pittsburgh Steelers
Houston Texans
"Oakland" Raiders
New York Giants
Detroit Lions
Chicago Bears
Arizona Cardinals
Seattle Seahawks

The Undefeated
Miami Dolphins
Cincinnati Bengals
Jacksonville Jaguars
Kansas City Chiefs
Denver Broncos
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Los Angeles Rams

*Indicates First Year Head Coach

Nothing like Week 3 to upset the narratives. We're down to only 3 winless teams and 3 lossless teams, and the same two First Year coaches are in the Danger zone. Bit less for the Cards after managing some offense, but Gruden is looking like a big risk for a team looking to restart in a new city.

JustAnEngineer wrote:

The Fitzmagick ran out!
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Re: NFL 2018

Tue Sep 25, 2018 12:48 pm

superjawes wrote:
JustAnEngineer wrote:

The Fitzmagick ran out!
Ryan Fitzpatrick leads the NFL in passing yards (1230). He’s thrown 11 touchdowns to 4 interceptions, 70% completion rate, 125 QBR, and no run-ins with the police for theft or sexual assault.
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