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superjawes
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Re: NFL 2019

Tue Dec 31, 2019 12:00 pm

Week 17 - League Status

Here's the full set of data for every division, changes since week 10.

2019
1st: NFC West: 38-25-1 (.602)
2nd: NFC North: 34-29-1 (.539)
3rd: AFC East: 34-30 (.533) [^4th]
T-4th: NFC South: 32-32 (.500) [^6th]
T-4th: AFC South: 32-32 (.500) [v3rd]
6th: AFC West: 31-33 (.484) [v5th]
7th: AFC North: 30-34 (.469)
8th: NFC East: 24-40 (.375)

ALL AFC: 127-129 (.496)
ALL NFC: 128-126-2 (.504)

Win percentages mostly evened out down the stretch as most teams played multiple division games in the final four weeks, but the NFC West still reigns supreme with overall win %, while the NFC East still stinks. For reference, here's how everyone did last season:

2018
AFC East: 28-36 (.438)
AFC North: 32-30-2 (.516)
AFC South: 35-29 (.547)
AFC West: 34-30 (.531)
ALL AFC: 129-125-2 (.508)

NFC East: 31-33 (.484)
NFC North: 32-30-2 (.516)
NFC South: 32-32 (.500)
NFC West: 30-34 (.469)
ALL NFC: 125-129-2 (.492)

So the NFC West is not only the best of 2019, but they're also the most improved, with +8.5 wins. The AFC East also saw a 6-win improvement thanks to a surge by Buffalo an New York. This could have been mostly erased had Miami tanked harder. On the opposite end of the spectrum, the NFC East is the biggest loser of 2019, with only one team above .500 and control of the #2 and #3 picks in the draft.

2019 New Head Coaches

Matt LaFleur, Green Bay Packers: 13-3 (.813), NFC North Title, First Round Bye
Kliff Kingsbury, Arizona Cardinals: 5-10-1 (.344), DNQ for playoffs
Bruce Arians, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 7-9 (.438), DNQ for playoffs
Freddie Kitchens, Cleveland Browns: 6-10 (.375), FIRED, DNQ for playoffs
Vic Fangio, Denver Broncos: 7-9 (.438), DNQ for playoffs
Adam Gase, New York Jets: 7-9 (.438), DNQ for playoffs
Zac Taylor, Cincinnati Bengals: 2-14 (.125), #1 Pick in the 2020 Draft
Brian Flores, Miami Dolphins: 5-11 (.313), DNQ for playoffs

ALL New Head Coaches: 52-75-1 (.410)
Minus Arians and Gase: 38-57-1 (.401)

So Arians and Gase still boosted the combined record of our new head coaches, but surges by Fangio and Flores balanced it out a bit more. Out of these 8 coaches, 5 improved their teams' record over 2018. Among the 3 teams who slipped, the Dolphins were trying to tank, the Bengals successfully tanked, and the Browns fired Freddie Kitchens. In 2018, two coaches made the playoffs (Nagy via NFC North title, Reich via Wild Card). While neither of those coaches returned in 2019, Mike Vrabel made his first appearance. And Pat Shurmur got fired this year.

Not to gloat about the Shurmur firing, but I had him on my "Should be a Hot Seat" take this time last year along with Ron Rivera. Shurmur for (incorrectly) blaming his problems on Eli Manning, which was proven when Jones did not magically fix the Giants, and Rivera for the continued slide of the Panthers. It does seem that new ownership broke that relationship on amicable terms, though. So that's nice.
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JustAnEngineer
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Re: NFL 2019

Tue Dec 31, 2019 12:52 pm

Ron Rivera has a new 5-year contract with the Redskins and Bruce Allen has been fired.
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Captain Ned
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Re: NFL 2019

Tue Dec 31, 2019 12:57 pm

JustAnEngineer wrote:
Ron Rivera has a new 5-year contract with the Redskins and Bruce Allen has been fired.

Too bad they can't fire the real source of the problem, namely the owner.
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Re: NFL 2019

Tue Dec 31, 2019 3:24 pm

Browns GM John Dorsey on Sunday wrote:
I would like to thank Freddie for his dedication and efforts this past season. We are disappointed in our results and feel a change is necessary.
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/john ... or-new-gm/
ESPN's Adam Schefter on Tuesday morning wrote:
Baylor head coach Mark Rhule declined the chance to interview for the Cleveland Browns' head coaching job.
Browns Owner Jimmy Haslam on Tuesday afternoon wrote:
We fully recognized that our team did not meet its potential on or off the field and additional changes in leadership give us the best opportunity for success in the future.... Over the last 48 hours, we've had discussion with John about his role but could not come to an agreement on a position that would enable him to remain with the organization.


Tyler Sullivan, CBS Sports, wrote:
Since arriving in 2017, Dorsey has played a major role in turning the Browns organization around and has made some strong moves constructing the roster. He went all-in on Baker Mayfield with the top pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, selected corner Denzel Ward with his other first-rounder and even snatched up star running back Nick Chubb later on in that draft. On top of those moves, Dorsey created a tremendous buzz around the league when he dealt for Odell Beckham Jr. in a trade with the Giants this offseason. Even his decision to sign running back Kareem Hunt, who has been a key member of the Browns offense upon his return from suspension, has come up aces.

Despite his success with some of his roster moves, the decision to put Freddie Kitchens in as the head coach does fall on Dorsey's shoulders.


Jamison Hensley, ESPN, wrote:
Browns are now searching for their 12th head coach and 10th general manager since returning to the NFL in 1999. A look at the rest of the AFC North over that time ...
Ravens: 2 head coaches, 2 GMs
Steelers: 2 head coaches, 1 GM
Bengals: 4 head coaches, 1 GM
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Re: NFL 2019

Tue Dec 31, 2019 10:26 pm

https://www.espn.com/blog/new-york-gian ... e-an-issue
Jordan Raanan, ESPN, wrote:
The Giants were willing to cut bait on a coach who endured a nine-game losing streak this season and went 9-23 in two seasons. Those losses, to their mind, are apparently more on Shurmur than Gettleman, who built the lacking-in-talent roster. The Giants have doubled down on the GM, much the same way Gettleman doubled and then tripled down on quarterback Eli Manning when he returned as general manager. We know how that one turned out, with the veteran quarterback lasting two games before being benched prior to Week 3. The Giants have made their fair share of mistakes over the past two years. You don't end up 5-11 and 4-12 in consecutive seasons by accident.

The Giants know some potential candidates could have a problem with Gettleman. He's old-school, isn't afraid to pat himself on the back and, as his track record shows, he sure knows how to alienate former players -- safety Landon Collins and receiver Odell Beckham Jr. are among the most recent examples. "I'm aware that that's a perception that's out there, but I don't have that concern because I think once they meet [Gettleman] and get to know him, that won't be an issue," Mara said of coaching candidates. They'd better hope Gettleman just doesn't mess it up, or the new coach might ultimately suffer the same fate as Shurmur.
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JustAnEngineer
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Re: NFL 2019

Thu Jan 02, 2020 8:10 am

superjawes wrote:
2019 New Head Coaches
Matt LaFleur, Green Bay Packers: 13-3 (.813), NFC North Title, First Round Bye
Kliff Kingsbury, Arizona Cardinals: 5-10-1 (.344), DNQ for playoffs
Bruce Arians, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 7-9 (.438), DNQ for playoffs
Freddie Kitchens, Cleveland Browns: 6-10 (.375), FIRED, DNQ for playoffs
Vic Fangio, Denver Broncos: 7-9 (.438), DNQ for playoffs
Adam Gase, New York Jets: 7-9 (.438), DNQ for playoffs
Zac Taylor, Cincinnati Bengals: 2-14 (.125), #1 Pick in the 2020 Draft
Brian Flores, Miami Dolphins: 5-11 (.313), DNQ for playoffs

ALL New Head Coaches: 52-75-1 (.410)
Minus Arians and Gase: 38-57-1 (.401)

So Arians and Gase still boosted the combined record of our new head coaches, but surges by Fangio and Flores balanced it out a bit more. Out of these 8 coaches, 5 improved their teams' record over 2018. Among the 3 teams who slipped, the Dolphins were trying to tank, the Bengals successfully tanked, and the Browns fired Freddie Kitchens. In 2018, two coaches made the playoffs (Nagy via NFC North title, Reich via Wild Card). While neither of those coaches returned in 2019, Mike Vrabel made his first appearance. And Pat Shurmur got fired this year.

Not to gloat about the Shurmur firing, but I had him on my "Should be a Hot Seat" take this time last year along with Ron Rivera. Shurmur for (incorrectly) blaming his problems on Eli Manning, which was proven when Jones did not magically fix the Giants, and Rivera for the continued slide of the Panthers. It does seem that new ownership broke that relationship on amicable terms, though. So that's nice.
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/grad ... eur-soars/
Patrik Walker, CBS Sports, wrote:
Matt LaFleur, Packers: A+
Brian Flores, Dolphins: B
Kliff Kingsbury, Cardinals: B
Vic Fangio, Broncos: C
Zac Taylor, Bengals: F
Freddie Kitchens, Browns: F
Dorsey put all of his chips on the table when he brought in Kitchens against the wishes of some, and the latter performed so poorly he got both of them fired.
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Re: NFL 2019

Sun Jan 05, 2020 10:36 am

I feel this terrible joy at the Patriots getting knocked out.
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superjawes
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Re: NFL 2019

Sun Jan 05, 2020 8:03 pm

Wild Card Weekend - Results

AFC
Buffalo Bills 19 at Houston Texans 22
Tennessee Titans 20 at New England Patriots 13

NFC
Minnesota Vikings 26 at New Orleans Saints 20
Seattle Seahawks 17 at Philadelphia Eagles 9

Three Wild Cards survive another week. This one really hurts for the Saints and Brees, who probably won't have a better chance than this...well also last season, but we know how that one ended. The Saints need to choose a QB of the future, and I get the feeling that Brees will want another shot no matter what. If you play for the Eagles, you might want to get some extra insurance. Carson Wentz played in his first playoff game! But he got hurt in the first half...so 40 year old Josh McCown got to play in his first playoff game! As I was saying, they were still able to give the Seahawks hell, so I was not surprised that they hung in there until the very end.

Over in the AFC, the Bills put on a good show show in their second playoff appearance of the McDermott era. Next year is going to be important for Josh Allen, as he needs to be "good enough" to run with that defense. They really are just a QB away from legitimate contention with how solid their defense is, so the only question is number 17. The Texans got messed up quite a bit in that game, too, but more on that later. We also saw Tom Brady end his season (maybe more?) with a pick six! (And there was much rejoicing!) The Titans are also looking fearsome, but more on that later. Or right now.


Divisional Weekend

AFC
Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs

NFC
Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers
Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers

As good as the Titans were, I do not think that they can beat the Ravens. They survived Wild Card weekend with a good run game. Even if they manage to run the ball early, I think Lamar Jackson scores 3+ touchdowns, forcing the Vrabel into aggressive passing plays, where Tannehill will have to be as good as Jackson (unlikely) and/or they have to beat the Baltimore defense (also unlikely). Over in KC, we saw what a decent defense can do to the Texans. Sure KC have Mahomes, but they've been winning recently in large part to an improved defense. This one could be closer (and Houston did win the regular season game), but I think too much will be stacked against them and the Chiefs return to the AFC Championship game. Plus, Mahomes vs. Jackson for a trip to the Super Bowl? Who doesn't want to see that?

The NFC is largely up in the air. The Vikings exceeded my expectations, which doesn't technically say much, but they're facing an up-and-down 9ers team after surviving in the Superdome. SF have the edge, but I wouldn't count out the Vikings in this one. I also saw how good the Seahawks still are, so they might even be favorites heading into Green Bay. I think we'll know quick how this new Packers team fares in January. If they come out playing good defense, Green Bay will have solid footing to make it into the NFC Championship game.
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JustAnEngineer
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Re: NFL 2019

Sun Jan 05, 2020 9:09 pm

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superjawes
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Re: NFL 2019

Mon Jan 06, 2020 9:22 am

JustAnEngineer wrote:

I was starting to think that JJ just couldn't find anyone to put up with his bulls- unique style of management. But logically, they probably didn't need to move quickly since there are still plenty of options on the table. Out of five teams who let head coaches go, only one have hired for 2020, and that was a unique opportunity as Gruden and Rivera both got fired/let go mid-season.

Here's that perspective according to NFL.com.

NFL Assistant Up-Hires: Dennis Allen (DC-NO), Eric Bieniemy (OC-KC), Brian Daboll (OC-BUF), Joe Judge (ST-NE), Don Martindale (DC-BAL), Josh McDaniels (OC-NE), Kris Richard (DBacks-DAL), Greg Roman (OC-BAL), Robert Saleh (DC-SF), Kevin Stefanski (OC-MN)

College Up-Hires: Urban Meyer (HC-OSU), Matt Rhule (HC-Baylor), Joe Brady (coOC-LSU)

Former NFL HCs: Marvin Lewis (CIN), Mike McCarthy (GB)

And that's leaving recently-fired head coaches like Garrett and Shurmur off the table. I think Rivera is the only true candidate of those five. If any more of them return to NFL coaching, it would probably be as OC/DC/etc. (like Chuck Pagano did). The main point is the long list of candidates for 4 potential landing spots. Assume former Super Bowl champion Mike McCarthy wins one and there are only 3 spots left.

EDIT: Well that didn't take long.
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superjawes
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Re: NFL 2019

Tue Jan 07, 2020 10:24 am

superjawes wrote:
I was starting to think that JJ just couldn't find anyone to put up with his bulls- unique style of management. But logically, they probably didn't need to move quickly since there are still plenty of options on the table. Out of five teams who let head coaches go, only one have hired for 2020, and that was a unique opportunity as Gruden and Rivera both got fired/let go mid-season.

Here's that perspective according to NFL.com.

NFL Assistant Up-Hires: Dennis Allen (DC-NO), Eric Bieniemy (OC-KC), Brian Daboll (OC-BUF), Joe Judge (ST-NE), Don Martindale (DC-BAL), Josh McDaniels (OC-NE), Kris Richard (DBacks-DAL), Greg Roman (OC-BAL), Robert Saleh (DC-SF), Kevin Stefanski (OC-MN)

College Up-Hires: Urban Meyer (HC-OSU), Matt Rhule (HC-Baylor), Joe Brady (coOC-LSU)

Former NFL HCs: Marvin Lewis (CIN), Mike McCarthy (GB)

And that's leaving recently-fired head coaches like Garrett and Shurmur off the table. I think Rivera is the only true candidate of those five. If any more of them return to NFL coaching, it would probably be as OC/DC/etc. (like Chuck Pagano did). The main point is the long list of candidates for 4 potential landing spots. Assume former Super Bowl champion Mike McCarthy wins one and there are only 3 spots left.

EDIT: Well that didn't take long.

Panther's hire Rhule, only the Browns and Giants are left without head coaches.
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Re: NFL 2019

Tue Jan 07, 2020 3:51 pm

superjawes wrote:
Panther's hire Rhule, only the Browns and Giants are left without head coaches.

Only Baylor fans are surprised he bolted for something better.
 
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Re: NFL 2019

Sun Jan 12, 2020 9:54 pm

Divisional Weekend - Results

AFC
Tennessee Titans 28 at Baltimore Ravens 12
Houston Texans 31 at Kansas City Chiefs 51

NFC
Minnesota Vikings 10 at San Francisco 49ers 27
Seattle Seahawks 23 at Green Bay Packers 28

Divisional weekend was drunk, at least in the AFC. The best team in the league put on their best Browns impression in an apparent bid to return to Cleveland. Then the Chiefs drop behind by 24 points early, then ROAR back to win 51-31. For the NFC, it really seems like the rest Minnesota took in Week 17 was the only reason they beat the Saints in New Orleans and just got clobbered by the 9ers. Meanwhile, I feel like we should give a ton of credit to the Packcers organization. LaFleur on his own seems okay as a head coach, but having stability on defense was a godsend, and definitely contributed to their #2 seeding as well as their win tonight.

I slightly take back my comments about Baltimore, just to respect what Vrabel has managed in Nashville. That is a well coached team that has played well, they have earned their way into the AFC Championship, that being said...

AFC Championship Game
Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs

NFC Championship Game
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers

Yes, I dare to pick against the Titans again. As a Colts fan, I really don't want to see the Titans in the Super Bowl, but I do think the Chiefs have a good chance of making it there this time, and I have 100% faith in their ability to handle adversity. Baltimore just kind of crumbled after dropping behind, while Mahomes rallied his team to a statement win, and that edge can do a lot. I'm also going to pick the underdog Packers, since that would be a statement win for Rodgers, and this time, he won't have to do all the work in an NFC Championship game.

Next Sunday should be WILD. We've got a GREAT pair of games coming.
Last edited by superjawes on Sun Jan 19, 2020 5:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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JustAnEngineer
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Re: NFL 2019

Sun Jan 12, 2020 10:27 pm

I'd like to see Andy Reid get his first Superbowl win.
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Re: NFL 2019

Sun Jan 19, 2020 6:15 pm

JustAnEngineer wrote:
I'd like to see Andy Reid get his first Superbowl win.

Well, he'll get his chance. Longest stretch between Super Bowl appearances and, according to the CBS crew, their prior visit was called by Joe Buck's father (Joe Buck is calling this Super Bowl).
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Re: NFL 2019

Sun Jan 19, 2020 9:53 pm

AFC Championship Game - Results
Tennessee Titans 24 at Kansas City Chiefs 35

NFC Championship Game - Results
Green Bay Packers 20 at San Francisco 49ers 37

The Chiefs fell behind again, and they came back again. As I kind of expected, the Chiefs leapt ahead, and Tannehill was unable to match a Reid/Mahomes passing attack. That will be very different in two weeks...

The Packers fell behind and just never recovered. They got beat in the trenches on both sides of the ball. High pressure on Rodgers early paired with flimsy run defense against the 49ers ground game. Well played by San Francisco to set up what should be one of the all-time great Super Bowls.

Super Bowl LIV
Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ers

So who you got winning this one? Who you cheering for? I, for one, will be behind fan favorites Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes, Scott Wasson, and Paul Rudd. Maybe I'll try to whip up some KC-inspired BBQ for that, too...
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Re: NFL 2019

Mon Jan 20, 2020 3:16 am

As much as the 49ers beat the living crap out of my hometown team (Bears) during the 80’s when I was a kid, I can’t help but like their style this season. A power-run offense and destroying the other team in the trenches is my kind of football.

Kansas City is a bit “whiz-bang” for my tastes, but it’s still entertaining to watch, and I do like that it’s a team who hasn’t been there in decades. Most of all, I’m just happy that New England didn’t make it.
 
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Re: NFL 2019

Thu Jan 23, 2020 11:34 am

I hate to say it, as a Seahawks fan, but the 49ers are the more complete team. They have great personnel on both sides of the ball, and they have a great plan for how to use them in-game.

On the other hand, Mahomes is about as good as modern quarterback in the game. He can pick apart almost any defense out there, which is what allows them to score in bunches.

It's going to be a really interesting contrast in styles. I predict a close game.
 
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Re: NFL 2019

Fri Jan 31, 2020 6:17 am

Bill Barnwell's Super Bowl analysis and pick:
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/285 ... tions-more
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Re: NFL 2019

Sun Feb 02, 2020 3:49 am

Lamar Jackson won the MVP unanimously.
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/nfl- ... ayer/live/
Ryan Tannehill won the comeback player of the year award. He wasn't coming back from an injury. He was coming back from being coached by Adam Gase.
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Re: NFL 2019

Sun Feb 02, 2020 11:01 pm

Super Bowl LIV - Results
Kansas City Chiefs 31 vs. San Francisco 49ers 20

That. Was. Awesome. Andy Reid got his first Super Bowl win (finally!), Mahomes became the youngest Super Bowl MVP, and they dug out of a 10-point hole by scoring 21 unanswered in the 4th. I couldn't have asked for more, and I get the feeling that the Chiefs are going to be in a good place for the foreseeable future.

As for the 49ers...they still seem cursed. Hopefully this loss counts as tribute for running Jim Harbaugh (and Colin Kaepernick) out of town. They are still a very good team, but KC had the right tools to tear them apart when it mattered. If Kyle Shanahan hadn't learned the lesson from Atlanta, it better be clear now: NEVER let up in big games. It doesn't matter how good you think you are or how far ahead you are. If you ease up against a team that wants it more, You Will Lose.
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