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FitzMagic #29 wants out of the fish tank.
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/mink ... hins-star/
https://sports.yahoo.com/dolphins-are-t ... 15105.html
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/285 ... anking-for

The NFL has had 75 different teams in its first 100 years.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ovdbrdCIP7U

Week 2 - Results

Thursday Night Football 9/12
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 at Carolina Panthers 14

Sunday, 9/15
Arizona Cardinals 17 at Baltimore Ravens 23
Dallas Cowboys 31 at Washington Redskins 21
Indianapolis Colts 19 at Tennessee Titans 17
Seattle Seahawks 28 at Pittsburgh Steelers 26
Buffalo Bills 28 at New York Giants 14
San Francisco 49ers 41 at Cincinnati Bengals 17
Los Angeles Chargers 10 at Detroit Lions 13
Minnesota Vikings 16 at Green Bay Packers 21
Jacksonville Jaguars 12 at Houston Texans 13
New England Patriots 43 at Miami Dolphins 0
Kansas City Chiefs 28 at "Oakland" Raiders 10
New Orleans Saints 9 at Los Angeles Rams 27
Chicago Bears 16 at Denver Broncos 14

Sunday Night Football
Philadelphia Eagles 20 at Atlanta Falcons 24

Monday Night Football, 9/16
Cleveland Browns 23 at New York Jets 3

I think the Patriots beat the spread...or Dolphins, depending on how you pick that one. Keep an eye on the Saints and Steelers, as both starting QBs suffered injuries. No clear indication on how serious either is.

SNF EDIT: Moar of that, please! Killer way for the Eagles to lose, especially with so many offensive injuries, but that was fun to watch.

superjawes wrote:

Chicago Bears 16 at Denver Broncos 14
Indianapolis Colts 19 at Tennessee Titans 17

Undrafted NFL free agent and former Florida walk-on Eddy Pineiro made an extra point and three long field goals, including a game-winning 53-yarder after the clock ticked down to zero (but officials put one second back on the clock). Pineiro has made 100% of his kicks in the first two games of his NFL career.
https://twitter.com/NFL/status/1173379262801297408
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/276 ... lift-bears

Meanwhile, a future hall of famer may be hanging up his cleats two games into the season.
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/adam ... -attempts/

JustAnEngineer wrote:

Undrafted NFL free agent and former Florida walk-on Eddy Pineiro made an extra point and three long field goals, including a game-winning 53-yarder after the clock ticked down to zero (but officials put one second back on the clock). Pineiro has made 100% of his kicks in the first two games of his NFL career.
https://twitter.com/NFL/status/1173379262801297408
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/276 ... lift-bears

Bears fans: "We finally have a kicker!"
::looks at the offense::
"But what did it cost?"
Bears fans: "...I don't want to talk about it."

JustAnEngineer wrote:

Meanwhile, a future hall of famer may be hanging up his cleats two games into the season.
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/adam ... -attempts/

Might be blowing this up a little too much right now. Obviously, as Pat points out, he is the oldest player in the league, and his missed kicks are clearly weighing on him. I have been and will be keeping a close eye on this. He's been great for Indy, and if he heads into retirement, I will still be immensely grateful for his contributions.

The Vinatieri retirement speculation is definitely taking a back seat right now. Both Drew Brees and Big Ben are undergoing surgeries. Brees is out ~6 weeks while Roethlisberger is out for the season. Considering their ages, these are potentially career-ending events. Even if they both come back, the Saints and Steelers will be testing their QB futures directly in the fire of an NFL season.

And my Keepers team is now a steaming plie, as they're my 2 QBs.

In the bounties league, I dropped Roethlisburger before today’s news was out about the surgery. He hasn’t looked great this season, even before Sunday’s injury.

Let's look at the league after two weeks.

Undefeated Teams: Patriots, Bills, Ravens, Chiefs, Cowboys, Packers, Seahawks, 49ers, Rams (nice job, NFC West!)

Winless teams: Jets, Dolphins, Bengals, Steelers, Jaguars, Broncos, Redskins, Giants, Panthers, Cardinals (although the red birds do have a tie, so they are above .000)

Week 3 will offer several chances for undefeated teams to extend their streaks (some over other undefeated teams), as well as opportunities for winless teams to notch their first W. As for the new head coaches (new new and old new), we have quite a mess overall. Four wins divided among three coaches.

Kliff Kingsbury, Arizona Cardinals: 0-1-1
Zac Taylor, Cincinnati Bengals: 0-2
Freddie Kitchens, Cleveland Browns: 1-1
Vic Fangio, Denver Broncos: 0-2
Matt LaFleur, Green Bay Packers: 2-0
Brian Flores, Miami Dolphins: 0-2
Adam Gase, New York Jets: 0-2 (23-25 with Dolphins)
Bruce Arians, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 1-1 (49-30-1 with Cardinals)

You've gotta feel bad for Brian Flores. Among the 2019 class, he's been dealt the worst hand, as Chris Grier continues a complete deconstruction of the roster, the latest trade sending some Fitzmagick to Pittsburgh.

The Dolphins lost 59-10 in week 1 and 43-0 in week 2. Apparently, that didn’t look like a sure enough path to the #1 pick in next year’s draft, so they traded away their best defensive player this week. If the Cowboys don’t blow them out by over 50 points this Sunday, will the Dolphins trade away Kenyon Drake next?

And Eli Manning is OUT as the Giants' starting QB.

So you want a crazy option? Eli should try to get traded to the Bears. Mitch Trubisky is making rookie mistakes in his third year as a starter, and the Bears are bearly surviving because of their kicker (miraculously). Put. Eli. On. That. Team. The Bears don't need a lot from their offense, and a solid game manager opposite a stellar defense is the best option for Chicago and Manning.

Probably won't happen...but it would make things fun and interesting.

EDIT: okay, just to ice this even more, turns out that Eli has a no-trade clause in his contract, so unless HE wants the move, all suggestions are DOA. Still, if he wanted to move, his only other options are...what? Return to Coughlin in Florida? Decent weather, but they're waiting on Foles to return. Stick in Jersey and play for the Jets? Darnold will be back eventually. Pop over to Pittsburgh or New Orleans while their franchise QBs are injured? Those teams need and have younger blood. It's a shame that a two-time Super Bowl MVP is doomed to be the highest paid backup, but that's what you get when management misdiagnose the problem.

It seems as if the Jets should be the most desperate, and therefore willing to give up the most to get a QB.

Week 3

Thursday Night Football 9/19
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars

Sunday, 9/22
Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills
Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles
New York Jets at New England Patriots
"Oakland" Raiders at Minnesota Vikings
Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs
Atlanta Falcons at Indianapolis Colts
Denver Broncos at Green Bay Packers
Miami Dolphins at Dallas Cowboys
New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals
Pittsburgh Steelers at San Francisco 49ers
New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks
Houston Texans at Los Angeles Chargers

Sunday Night Football
Los Angeles Rams at Cleveland Browns

Monday Night Football, 9/23
Chicago Bears at Washington Redskins

Injuries on two franchise QBs might be affecting my picks for this week...I don't know if the Steelers are hosed, but they're traveling West to play a much improved 9ers team. The Saints are in a real pickle. They might survive for a while if they can dominate Seattle's O-line (not terribly difficult), but I think defense + Wilson will overpower anything New Orleans can offer. I also like the Pack at home against Denver, and it's just too easy to pick against the Dolphins.

Although we do need a quick sidebar. I've seen some analysts get really hyped about the Cowboys, and looking at their schedule, I've got to issue a fraud alert against them. I do think they will make the playoffs and look really good getting there, but a lot of that will come down to their schedule. There are plenty of winnable games there, and they play some of their real challenges in Arlington (GB, MIN, LA, even BUF). The Cowboys should not be underestimated if you're an NFC team, but I get the feeling that they're going to get a ton of love and favored as Super Bowl LIV Champions only to be knocked out early. This is just an early warning for that. The NFC is still STACKED with a ton of teams that could sneak in and wreak havoc in January, in addition to the postseason juggernauts.

Now that I've got that off my chest, who wants to find some good football to watch? Obviously you should tune into Sunday Night Football. IIRC, this is the first time the Browns have been on a nation-wide broadcast since Monday Night Football moved to ESPN. The ghosts of the NFL have a chance to redeem themselves by giving the Rams a good fight. During the day, you should definitely tune into Baltimore @ KC. That's a rematch between two young, talented QBs. If Mahomes can overcome Baltimore's D, we'll see a shootout at Arrowhead. I'll also throw some love to my Colts, who host another 1-1 team in our home opener. That game will likely be a hard-fought win (for whomever comes out on top).

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... ons/games/
Falcons at Colts looks like a close game.

Dallas is "only" a 14½ point favorite against the fish tank. That's not even as lopsided as the hapless Jets sending their 3rd string QB against the Patriots.

FiveThirtyEight's model likes your picks:
Packers 74%
Cowboys 89%
49ers 79%
Seahawks 73%
It likes New England even more:
Patriots 91%

New England are a smart pick, but I hate picking them. If we're going comparisons, they probably do get a better point differential than Dallas/Miami. The Pats generally aren't merciful, and they're at home. Miami's offensive players have some incentive to score points, if only to earn trade capital. I still expect both games to be blowouts.

Interesting thing about FiveThirtyEight's model, you can compare the new, QB-adjusted model to traditional Elo. The QB version swings IND/ATL by 3.5 in Ryan's favor (must be residual Luck), and it swings by 8 for PIT/SF (adv. Garoppolo). It's only worth 0.5 for Brady, though, like it literally doesn't matter who the Jets dress at QB.

Josh Rosen gets his first 2019 start!

Adam Maya wrote:

Rosen will again be operating behind an offensive line under construction.

Frank, I think Chris Grier is doing the exact opposite.

Captain Ned wrote:

How many weeks until the Patriots implode?

Almost two.
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/anto ... hats-next/
https://www.si.com/nfl/2019/09/16/anton ... ct-assault
https://www.si.com/nfl/2019/09/19/anton ... t-messages
https://www.si.com/nfl/2019/09/20/anton ... t-messages

Drew Rosenhaus wrote:

It's unfortunate things didn't work out with the Patriots. But Antonio is healthy and is looking forward to his next opportunity {to screw things up} in the NFL. He wants to play the game he loves and he hopes to play for another team soon.

Adam Schefter wrote:

I think it's fair to wonder who, at this point, would give Antonio Brown a chance next. When the New England Patriots say goodbye to you, that's a kiss of death.

Week 3 - Results

Thursday Night Football 9/19
Tennessee Titans 7 at Jacksonville Jaguars 20

Sunday, 9/22
Cincinnati Bengals 17 at Buffalo Bills 21
Detroit Lions 27 at Philadelphia Eagles 24
New York Jets 14 at New England Patriots 30
"Oakland" Raiders 14 at Minnesota Vikings 34
Baltimore Ravens 22 at Kansas City Chiefs 33
Atlanta Falcons 24 at Indianapolis Colts 27
Denver Broncos 16 at Green Bay Packers 27
Miami Dolphins 6 at Dallas Cowboys 31
New York Giants 32 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31
Carolina Panthers 38 at Arizona Cardinals 20
Pittsburgh Steelers 20 at San Francisco 49ers 24
New Orleans Saints 33 at Seattle Seahawks 27
Houston Texans 27 at Los Angeles Chargers 20

Sunday Night Football
Los Angeles Rams 20 at Cleveland Browns 13

Monday Night Football, 9/23
Chicago Bears 31 at Washington Redskins 15

From the early window, five teams stay perfect, while the afternoon window sees a split in the NFC West, with the Seahawks getting upset at home and the 49ers staying perfect. SNF will determine if SF have to share the top spot. Speaking of Seattle, it looks like they are just getting sloppy. Fumbles and poor special teams really seemed to cut up any advantage they had, and suddenly I'm not very confident in their abilities. Oh,and some kid name Daniel Jones won his first start in one of the worst possible outcomes for the Giants. I think I've made it clear that I do not believe that team is stable, and being able to scapegoat Manning will just be delaying that realization for everyone else.

Two weeks ago, one of ESPN's talking heads said that Russell Wilson was "one Tyler Lockett injury away from having to throw passes to himself."

Too bad Pats allowed those 14 points. Had they won by 27+ pts they would've broken the Cowboys'68 record -- +99 scoring margin after the first 3 games of the season. Now Pats have only +89

Week 3 - League Status

Time to look at the whole league for a moment. You can get team ranking pretty easily, so let's start by looking at combined division and conference records.

AFC East: 6-6 (.500)
AFC North: 3-9 (.250)
AFC South: 6-6 (.500)
AFC West: 5-7 (.417)

NFC East: 5-7 (.417)
NFC North: 9-2-1 (.792)
NFC South: 5-7 (.417)
NFC West: 8-3-1 (.708)

ALL AFC: 20-28 (.417)
ALL NFC: 27-19-2 (.583)

I got the idea for this by looking at the AFC North and East. Several teams performing poorly there, and no AFC division is collectively over .500. You have to find that in the NFC, where the North and West notch a total of 17 wins, or 36% of all league wins. That's against just five losses and two ties. Although the West has had zero division games, and the North has had two, where the Packers won both. Speaking of the Pack, let's check in on new head coaches.

Matt LaFleur, Green Bay Packers: 3-0 (1.000)
Bruce Arians, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 1-2 (.333)
Freddie Kitchens, Cleveland Browns: 1-2 (.333)
Kliff Kingsbury, Arizona Cardinals: 0-2-1 (.167)
Zac Taylor, Cincinnati Bengals: 0-3 (.000)
Vic Fangio, Denver Broncos: 0-3 (.000)
Brian Flores, Miami Dolphins: 0-3 (.000)
Adam Gase, New York Jets: 0-3 (.000)

ALL New Head Coaches: 5-18-1 (.229)
Minus Arians and Gase: 4-13-1 (.250)

Well this looks grim. LaFleur and the Packers are miles ahead of the rest after 3 weeks, as Kitchens owns the only other win as a first time head coach. Adding in the Arians win and the Kingsbury tie only boosts the combined record by 1.5. Plus, out of seven still-winless teams, FIVE have new head coaches (four if you exclude Gase). Mike Tomlin and Jay Gruden are the other winless HCs, and their chairs are probably getting uncomfortable.

Bonus: Every All-division record, in order from best to worst.

NFC North: 9-2-1 (.792)
NFC West: 8-3-1 (.708)
AFC South: 6-6 (.500)
AFC East: 6-6 (.500)
AFC West: 5-7 (.417)
NFC South: 5-7 (.417)
NFC East: 5-7 (.417)
AFC North: 3-9 (.250)

For the most part, NFL teams get new head coaches because the team was bad the previous season.

JustAnEngineer wrote:

For the most part, NFL teams get new head coaches because the team was bad the previous season.

Fair, so let's compare to 2018 after 3 weeks.

Mike Vrabel, Tennessee Titans (beat Jaguars): 2-1 (.667)
Matt Nagy, Chicago Bears (beat Cardinals): 2-1 (.667)
Pat Shurmur, New York Giants (beat Texans): 1-2 (.333)
Frank Reich, Indianapolis Colts (lost to Eagles): 1-2 (.333)
Matt Patricia, Detroit Lions (beat Patriots): 1-2 (.333)
Steve Wilks, Arizona Cardinals (lost to Bears): 0-3 (.000)
John Gruden, "Oakland" Raiders (lost to Dolphins): 0-3 (.000)

Combined Record: 7-14 (.333)
Minus Gruden: 7-11 (.389)

So true, the 2018 class record wasn't great, but they were faring a bit better, especially if you dismiss Gruden as an outlier--former (Super Bowl winning) head coach of Tampa Bay with zero wins. The wins were also spread out a bit more, as only two teams entered week 4 winless versus the five in 2019.

Week 4

Thursday Night Football 9/26
Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers

Sunday, 9/29
Tennessee Titans at Atlanta Falcons
Washington Redskins at New York Giants
Los Angeles Chargers at Miami Dolphins
"Oakland" Raiders at Indianapolis Colts
Carolina Panther at Houston Texans
Kansas City Chiefs at Detroit Lions
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Rams
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears
Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos

Sunday Night Football
Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints

Monday Night Football, 9/30
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers

I feel like the Packers should be a lock-in for Thursday Night, but betting against the Eagles is dangerous. This has the potential to be one of the best games of the week, even with my normal reservations about Thursday Night's screwing everything up due to the short week. Because of that, I'm sticking with my picks for the Chargers against the Dolphins, for the Rams, and for the Bears. Since I've been picking four a week, I'll also take Pittsburgh at home. The game will mostly set up who finishes 3rd and 4th in the AFC North.

For game watching, obviously try to tune into TNF, but there are several worth watching. Although I pick the Bears to win, their game against the Vikings could be close. The Browns/Ravens game could also be good, and the Bills miiiight pull off a surprise at home. The Cowboys are also getting their first "real" challenge with the "not dead yet" Saints in prime time. The most interesting game to watch this week will be in Detroit. Matt Patricia is finally making progress with that team, and he is undefeated so far. I'm curious to his plans for Mahomes.

Week 4 - Results

Thursday Night Football 9/26
Philadelphia Eagles 34 at Green Bay Packers 27

Sunday, 9/29
Tennessee Titans 24 at Atlanta Falcons 10
Washington Redskins 3 at New York Giants 24
Los Angeles Chargers 30 at Miami Dolphins 10
"Oakland" Raiders 31 at Indianapolis Colts 24
Carolina Panther 16 at Houston Texans 10
Kansas City Chiefs 34 at Detroit Lions 30
Cleveland Browns 40 at Baltimore Ravens 25
New England Patriots 16 at Buffalo Bills 10
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 55 at Los Angeles Rams 40
Seattle Seahawks 27 at Arizona Cardinals 10
Minnesota Vikings 6 at Chicago Bears 16
Jacksonville Jaguars 26 at Denver Broncos 24

Sunday Night Football
Dallas Cowboys 10 at New Orleans Saints 12

Monday Night Football, 9/30
Cincinnati Bengals 3 at Pittsburgh Steelers 27

superjawes wrote:

I feel like the Packers should be a lock-in for Thursday Night, but betting against the Eagles is dangerous.

And that's why I don't like picking against the Eagles.

Eight Teams entered Week 4 undefeated. Four Five of those teams lost, two extended, and one team is on bye. The Cowboys defend their status shortly. On the other end, seven teams entered week 4 without wins, and of the five who played today, none tasted victory. Barring a tie tomorrow night, the Bengals or Steelers will be celebrating their first 2019 win.

In other news, the Bears proved that they don't really need a strong QB to win, keeping the Vikings scoreless for ~3.5 quarters while Trubisky left early with a shoulder injury. And the Rams decided to screw up my picks for the week by allowing 55 points by the Bucs! Some of that was defensive scoring, but still. Also, Frank Gore became the 4th RB with 15,000 yards today while Larry Fitzgerald earned the #2 spot for passes caught.

SNF EDIT: Dallas fall short in New Orleans!

I hope this gets appealed...up to a permaban.

Vontaze Burfict suspended for the rest of the season.

Not just because he did it to Jack Doyle, not just because Doyle was already being tackled, but because this guy has repeatedly harmed or attempted to harm others. Let him be someone else's problem.

Yeah, it's time. A 5 yard run with head lowered into someone already down should be terms for permabans.

Both of them kinda led with the helmet.

Will Andy Reid get his 200th win this week against the Colts?
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/277 ... -nfl-stars