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Normally I would prefer to save this until Week 1 is in sight, but with several big trades and Free Agent signings under way, it makes more sense to start now.

While many people will be focused on the dumpster fire that is Steelers management (losing Brown and Bell), as a Colts fan I'm more focused on Nick Foles heading to Jacksonville. Foles is a good QB, and he improves the Jaguars, but he's not going to "fix" the Jaguars. The team (and NFL media) were quick to single out Bortles as the weak spot, but the reality is that Jacksonville had one good year when half of the AFC South starting QBs were injured. Glad Nick got paid, but we're looking at a #3 finish (at best) from this team.

What is Dave Gettleman doing, and why didn't he do it last year?
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/nfl- ... -disaster/

Everyone seems to be jumping on the Browns bandwagon now.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/di ... ontenders/

Here's Bill Barnwell's evaluation of every major off-season signing and trade:
http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/2615 ... gning-move

OBJ to the Browns sounds like a great day for the Dawg Pound.

JustAnEngineer wrote:

Everyone seems to be jumping on the Browns bandwagon now.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/di ... ontenders/

"Did the Giants Just Make the Browns Super Bowl Contenders?"

No. Everyone calm down and remember that the Browns are still the Browns. I'm sympathetic for Cleveland, but I still expect Baker to slide a bit in 2019, and I don't see the Browns beating Indianapolis, Houston, Baltimore, New England, Pittsburgh, Kansas City, or Los Angeles (C) in January. Beating two or three of those teams? In a row? Not happening just yet.

That being said, if they stay the course and continue to improve Baker Mayfield and his supporting cast...a Super Bowl appearance in a couple years seems fairly likely. OBJ is still young, so pairing him with a young QB is a recipe for magic. Then you add in a solid defense, some additional offensive weapons, and a crumbling AFC North, and you get a team that could string together a few playoff appearances.

Then again, the Browns are still the Browns. All of my positive speculation is based on this team sticking with their core personnel for more than 18 months.

I was wondering why the Ravens let Weddle go. Now that part is all clear. Earl is an upgrade, younger, and after the $22M this year and the $32M guaranteed, it gets cheaper for Baltimore on the backend. Ravens still have some linebackers to fill out, last I checked.

Seahawks resigning Mychal Kendricks means KJ Wright is almostly certainly available, which was pretty certain anyway. Seahawks still need some cornerback and safety competition going on, by training camp at the latest. Only feel really good about Bradley McDougald. Shaq Griffin, Tre Flowers, Tedric Thompson, and Akeem King need to seriously up their games, especially without Justin Coleman (Lions).

edit: looks like KJ will stay with Seattle.

superjawes, right on.

Shall we spoil this story now?

Here's what's going to happen...the Dolphins will go on an early run in 2019. Florida teams ALWAYS outperform at home in September, and Fitzpatrick's first few starts of a season are his best games. Heck, they might even blow out a "good" team at home, leading to sports media believing in the Fitzmagick again. But then they crash. Hard. Fitz has a 3+ INT game (or two), he'll get benched, and the Dolphins will sputter out of playoff contention by early December.

The dude seems perfectly likeable, but I've seen this story before.

The Dolphins now have the original "FitzMagic" and the official one.

The Tennessee Titans start the 2019 season 0-2 after getting roasted in their own city on Day 2 of the 2019 NFL Draft. Highlights from Reggie Wayne and Pat McAfee.

It is unclear whether the Titans or Josh Rosen have the worst start to 2019.

superjawes wrote:

It is unclear whether the Titans or Josh Rosen have the worst start to 2019.

I give you: Dave Gettleman.

I still think Rosen's 2019 is starting worse because Gettleman's choice there isn't as immediate. Rosen was a first rounder in 2018, got thrown to the wolves, and then the Cardinals didn't do enough to trade him before drafting Kyler Murray #1 overall (a little dealing could resulted in more picks for the Cards, with Denver, DC, NYG as additional dealers).

...but yeah, Daniel Jones better be a Super Bowl MVP within 5 years to clean up the stench of that pick. With Eli Manning as a viable option (assuming you protect him), any young QB has at least a year to learn the NY media, so you should be picking the one best available.

The Giants desperately needed a new quarterback a year ago. Instead, they stuck with Eli Manning. Drafting #2 overall last year, in a quarterback-rich draft, Gettleman decided to take a running back and ignored the team's huge need and the available talent at QB. This year, he took the 3rd or 4th ranked quarterback in a weak draft... as the second QB selected with the #6 overall pick. He could selected a great edge rusher with the #6 pick and then the 3rd-ranked QB that he "fell in love" with at the Senior Bowl would still have been available with the Giants' #17 pick after the Redskins took Haskins at #15. It boggles the mind.
https://www.ctpost.com/sports/jeffjacob ... 799283.php
http://www.espn.com/video/clip?id=26610409
http://www.espn.com/blog/new-york-giant ... every-pick

Meanwhile, after trading up to select Josh Rosen at #10 last year, the Arizona Cardinals suffered a devastating series of injuries to their offensive line. Rosen spent the season running for his life behind a porous makeshift line with two different offensive coordinators and an entire coaching staff that got fired at the end of the year. At least in Miami, he's got a serious shot at beating out Ryan Fitzpatrick for another starting job. If it doesn't work out, the Dolphins will be still be in the running to "tank for Tua" next year.
http://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2019/story ... hy-a-steal

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2019 ... -for-2019/
Will Brinson and R.J. White like these bets for the 2019 NFL season:
Chargers over 9½ wins (-140)
Ravens under 8½ wins (-120)
Seahawks over 8½ wins (-120)
Lions under 6½ wins (+110)
Bills over 6½ wins (-160)
Giants under 6 wins (-120)
Packers over 9 wins (-110)

JustAnEngineer wrote:

If it doesn't work out, the Dolphins will be still be in the running to "tank for Tua" next year.

I don't think Tua is tank-worthy

idchafee wrote:

I don't think Tua is tank-worthy

Agreed. Take Tua out of that system and Bob knows.

JustAnEngineer wrote:

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2019-nfl-win-totals-vegas-released-totals-for-all-32-teams-here-are-our-favorite-picks-for-2019/
Will Brinson and R.J. White like these bets for the 2019 NFL season:
Chargers over 9½ wins (-140)
Ravens under 8½ wins (-120)
Seahawks over 8½ wins (-120)
Lions under 6½ wins (+110)
Bills over 6½ wins (-160)
Giants under 6 wins (-120)
Packers over 9 wins (-110)

How do they expect the Chargers to win 10 games? I didn't think their schedule is that much of a cakewalk..

I've always felt that cherry-picking certain before-season team over/unders and division winners was among the safer NFL bets.

Really like what the Arizona Cardinals are cooking up with Ryan Gosling Kliff Kingsbury, Kyler Murray, and Hakeem Butler. Looks like they're getting ready to roll out a high-scoring Big 12 style offense! Should be fun to watch!

druidcent wrote:

JustAnEngineer wrote:

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2019-nfl-win-totals-vegas-released-totals-for-all-32-teams-here-are-our-favorite-picks-for-2019/
Will Brinson and R.J. White like these bets for the 2019 NFL season:
Chargers over 9½ wins (-140)
Ravens under 8½ wins (-120)
Seahawks over 8½ wins (-120)
Lions under 6½ wins (+110)
Bills over 6½ wins (-160)
Giants under 6 wins (-120)
Packers over 9 wins (-110)

How do they expect the Chargers to win 10 games? I didn't think their schedule is that much of a cakewalk..

2 games against both the Raiders and Broncos make it a lot more feasible. They may just split with the Chiefs and they are halfway there. Games against Jacksonville and Miami helps. If they split the rest, they are there.

Broncos are generally a coin-flip, even when the Broncos are sucking... And I thought the Chargers are traveling overseas this year... I'm not sure they split the Chiefs either.

10 is actually pretty plausible, the more I think about it. Besides the AFC West (3-2), they play the Steelers and Dolphins (1-0), the NFC North (1-1), and the AFC South (2-1). I give them at least 7 wins and 4 losses, leaving them 5 games to find 3 more wins.

Their schedule does include 4 teams who played in the 2018 playoffs, and another 3 who got really close, so another 12-win (or better) season feels less likely, but 9 or 10 isn't a stretch.

Captain Ned wrote:

In the immortal words of Chris Berman: DOINK!!!

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/the- ... ing-start/
Eight Bears kickers; six misses from 43 yards... in practice.

Sean Wagner-McGough wrote:

Regardless of how and why Parkey missed, the Bears have a kicking problem. That much is undisputed. In truth, they've had one ever since they made the decision to cut Robbie Gould before the 2016 season. Over the past three seasons, the Bears' kickers have made 76 percent of their field goals in regular season games. In that span, Gould made 96.5 percent of his field goals with the Giants and 49ers.

JustAnEngineer wrote:

Captain Ned wrote:

In the immortal words of Chris Berman: DOINK!!!

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/the- ... ing-start/
Eight Bears kickers; six misses from 43 yards... in practice.

Sean Wagner-McGough wrote:

Regardless of how and why Parkey missed, the Bears have a kicking problem. That much is undisputed. In truth, they've had one ever since they made the decision to cut Robbie Gould before the 2016 season. Over the past three seasons, the Bears' kickers have made 76 percent of their field goals in regular season games. In that span, Gould made 96.5 percent of his field goals with the Giants and 49ers.

They were nuts letting him go. I never buy jerseys, and I actually bought a Robbie Gould jersey some years back, because I was sure he'd spend an entire long career with the team (and equally as much because I think having the kickers' jersey is somewhat amusing). As we've seen, a kicker can straight-up cost you playoff games. The Bears beat the Rams with ease during the regular season, what would've happened if it was Gould and he makes the kick?

The Egg wrote:

(and equally as much because I think having the kickers' jersey is somewhat amusing).

#ForTheBrand

I have McAfee and Vinatieri jerseys

More betting advice for the 2019 NFL season:
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2019 ... r-pass-on/
Will Brinson likes the odds for the Bills, Bears, Browns, Chargers, Vikings, Eagles, Steelers, 49ers, Seahawks and Titans.
I don't gamble, but the analysis of those who do provides some insights into the game.

Via NFL.com: Nine Bold Predictions for 2019

Adam Schein wrote:

1) Derek Carr returns to MVP form.

It does count as "bold", but the Soon-To-Be-Vegas Raiders are still an unknown with Gruden at the helm. They open the season on MNF against the Broncos, so we'll probably find out then.

Adam Schein wrote:

2) The Green Bay Packers win 11 games to sit atop the NFC North.

People aren't predicting this? For years, the Packers have been struggling on defense, and judging by their draft picks, it seems like they got the message. As long as LaFleur stays out of the predictable rut that ended McCarthy's tenure, their offense will return to form. Looking at their schedule with that in mind, I think 10 wins is fairly easy, so a stretch goal of 11 is well within reach.

Adam Schein wrote:

3) Baker Mayfield becomes an MVP candidate while taking the AFC North.

No. I like the guy, but the Browns were riding high on low expectations, and his 2019 opponents include the Seahawks, Bills, Patriots, Rams, and Ravens x 2. I like Mayfield+Browns to challenge for the AFC North, but I think it's gonna be close between them and the Ravens fighting late into the season. As for MVP, he would be competing against (at least) Mahomes, Rodgers, Luck, and Goff.

Adam Schein wrote:

4) The Pittsburgh Steelers finish third in the AFC North.

Again...people aren't predicting this? I think I've said before that the Steelers are in bad shape after losing Bell and Brown. Not because they lost them, but how they lost them, with at least a year of off-field drama. This organization needs to clean itself up. If they don't, I can see them falling below the Bengals in the AFC North. Even if they stay relatively clean, the Ravens are always #1 or 2 in the North, and I do think the Browns make their case as well.

tl;dr: The "bold" prediction would be to slate the Steelers at the bottom of the AFC North.

Adam Schein wrote:

5) Daniel Jones starts at least seven games for the New York Giants.

Ain't gonna happen. Start? Yes. Seven? No. The Giants will live or die on their offensive line. Switching to a rookie ain't gonna fix that, and Eli has the experience to make better decisions under that pressure. Regardless, expect a bad year in New York Jersey.

Adam Schein wrote:

6) The NFC West is the most exciting division in football.

This prediction I like. You've got the #1 overall pick going at QB for the least interesting team. The Seahawks feel like they're returning to form, and the 9ers probably made the relevant sacrifices to keep their QB healthy this year. Even with a SB hangover, the Rams should do okay, leading to a tighter division race.

Adam Schein wrote:

7) Andy Dalton enjoys the best year of his career.

Dalton/Green is a good combo, and I'm sure Cincy will do better than 2018, but they face several of the teams the Browns do, plus the Browns! (...it feels really weird complimenting the Browns like this.)

Adam Schein wrote:

8) Sean McDermott earns Coach of the Year honors.

Interesting. I do believe there will be a stand-out team in the AFC East stealing a Wild Card, and the Bills might be the one. Despite their offensive struggles, they've been improving on defense for some time, even with changes at HC. Plus, Josh Allen showed plenty of promise despite a lackluster year for the team, which means he's added a year of experience without drawing too much attention to himself (see: potential slides for Mahomes, Goff, Mayfield).

If it isn't McDermott, keep an eye out for Bruce Arians. He's won AP Head Coach of the Year twice, and for good reason. Plus, Tampa Bay has more room for advancement in their division than Buffalo.

Adam Schein wrote:

9) The Los Angeles Chargers field the best defense in NFL.

Meh. They might still be top 10, but there are plenty of other teams improving defensively in 2019. I don't really see the Bears or Ravens getting worse, and in 2018 the Jaguars were #5 in points allowed, despite the disastrous season. They've also got a handful of games against offensively stacked teams.

In a game where you can have a season-ending injury on any given play, I never hold much confidence in 1-man teams such as the Packers. If you're betting one game at a time, yeah, but not before the season.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is ... rd-cursed/
https://www.nydailynews.com/sports/foot ... story.html

Manish Mehta wrote:

Jets fire GM Mike Maccagnan and surpass Knicks and Giants as the biggest joke in town
There’s no way to sugarcoat it: New Jersey Jets Chairman and CEO Christopher Johnson is disingenuous, reactionary, erratic or just plain clueless. Take your pick.... The acting owner’s choice to pull the plug after Maccagnan headed a coaching search, spent more than $120 million in free agency and oversaw a draft that included the No. 3 pick was the latest example that perhaps the Jets are what so many have always believed them to be: A lost, dysfunctional outfit unable to get out of its own way.... The timing of this move reeks of amateurism. Vice President of Player Personnel Brian Heimerdinger, who has been credited for orchestrating the trade last year to position the Jets to draft Sam Darnold, was collateral damage.

M-E-S-S... same old Jets.

Mike Greenberg is beside himself:
http://www.espn.com/video/clip?id=26760712

http://www.espn.com/blog/new-york/jets/ ... -questions

Rich Cimini wrote:

The Maccagnan-Adam Gase marriage was dysfunctional. Their relationship eroded faster than a diet fad. Essentially, Johnson is entrusting a coach with a 23-25 career record to lead his organization, which is a bold move, Cotton. The job might scare away potential candidates because of the organizational dysfunction and instability. The Jets can be career killers for executives and coaches. The lack of a clear vision is one of the reasons the franchise has suffered in mediocrity. The Jets' CEO has discovered that running a team involves more than luxury suites, private jets and VIP access. His indecisiveness and lack of vision raise questions about his ability to lead the franchise. He needed a "deep dive" into the inner workings of the organization to figure out his GM and new coach were butting heads? Come on.

Wich team can win how you think?

Speaking of the NFL, I saw this yesterday:
NFL Suspends Full-Time Officiating Program

If anything, better officiating should be one of their top priorities, but they're screwing around because a contract negotiation is approaching. Perfect example of how the NFL doesn't give a g- d- about the quality of their product. How much do officials cost, and how important are they?

What's also interesting is that the sorts of broadcasting deals which account for the majority of the league's income (and are distributed equally to all the teams, allowing them to have the same salary cap) will be ending soon. "Regardless of the conflicting details, the NFL is feeling good about where it currently is...." They're feeling good about having someone bent over a barrel? I hope those clueless morons realize that there's no way they're going to get anywhere near the same money next time around. Have they been paying attention to anything at all? Traditional cable/satellite companies are hemorrhaging subscribers at ever-increasing rates, and would never be able to pay what they have in the past. The NFL might be able to score something with a player like Amazon (who has dabbled in broadcasting a handful of games), but once they realize they're the only serious player at the table, the NFL's position is weakened significantly. Some big changes will be coming to Sears...er, I mean the NFL in the next 5 years.