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superjawes
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Re: NFL 2019

Sun Dec 08, 2019 8:02 pm

Week 14 - Results

Thursday Day 12/5
Dallas Cowboys 24 at Chicago Bears 31

Sunday, 12/8
Carolina Panthers 20 at Atlanta Falcons 40
Indianapolis Colts 35 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 38
Miami Dolphins 21 at New York Jets 22
San Francisco 49ers 48 at New Orleans Saints 46
Detroit Lions 7 at Minnesota Vikings 20
Denver Broncos 38 at Houston Texans 24
Baltimore Ravens 24 at Buffalo Bills 17
Cincinnati Bengals 19 at Cleveland Browns 27
Washington Redskins 15 at Green Bay Packers 20
Los Angeles Chargers 45 at Jacksonville Jaguars 10
Pittsburgh Steelers 23 at Arizona Cardinals 17
Tennessee Titans 42 at "Oakland" Raiders 21
Kansas City Chiefs 23 at New England Patriots 16

Sunday Night Football
Seattle Seahawks 12 at Los Angeles Rams 28

Monday Night Football, 12/9

New York Giants 17 at Philadelphia Eagles 23

Well this was definitely a week for Super Bowl contenders. Baltimore won another slugfest, this time against Buffalo's defense, while the 49ers pulled off a last second win against the Saints in NO. Then in the late window, KC showed up to play against New England, snapping the 21-game win streak at Foxborough.

Looking more broadly at the playoff picture, things are interesting. Houston were handed an embarassing loss at home to the Broncos, which paired nicely to bump KC up to the #3 seed. By the way, all of the division leaders in the conference have beaten New England. In the NFC, the 9ers jump up to #1, which will depend on Seattle's showing on SNF. A win will swap these NFC West teams again. However, that will not help the Saints, who got knocked down to #3 seed behind Green Bay. I still feel like the NFC is the more dangerous conference, but I don't think the AFC is a cakewalk, and if KC or Baltimore make it to Miami, it will be a good show.

Here's ad added note as teams start planning their January and February: the Los Angeles Chargers are the first 2018 playoff team to be eliminated from 2019 contention.

SNF EDIT: Wow...not sure how indicative that is for Seattle overall, but they had a nasty night in LA.

MNF EDIT: The Eagles scored 20 unanswered points in the second half to smother Eli's comeback night.
On second thought, let's not go to TechReport. Tis a silly place.
 
superjawes
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Re: NFL 2019

Wed Dec 11, 2019 11:01 pm

Week 15

Thursday Day 12/12
New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens

Sunday, 12/15
New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs
Miami Dolphins at New York Giants
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins
Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers
Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Chargers
Jacksonville Jaguars at "Oakland" Raiders
Cleveland Browns at Arizona Cardinals
Los Angeles Rams at Dallas Cowboys
Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers

Sunday Night Football
Buffalo Bills at Pittsburgh Steelers

Monday Night Football, 12/16
Indianapolis Colts at New Orleans Saints

Not a lot of breathing room in the playoff race leads to a jam-packed week and some risky pickings. Baltimore is risky because of the short week, but a better team at home should pull through. Despite the offensive thwacking Denver delivered last week, I'm going to take the Chiefs and their surprise defense. I'm also taking must-win games for Philly, Seattle, and San Francisco. Still hoping for that week 17 game to decide the NFC West. I'm also taking the raiders in one of Marrone's last games as HC in Jacksonville. With two coaches already down, and more expected, I have a feeling that playoff-dry teams should start their searches sooner rather than later, and Jacksonville seems completely done for the year.
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superjawes
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Re: NFL 2019

Thu Dec 12, 2019 10:22 am

Vic Fangio: No Divisions!

I am partial to changing the division structure, perhaps to encourage better competition and more development for struggling franchises, but "no divisions" isn't the answer, and I like the idea of inter-conference play.

If I were to suggest an alternative, it would probably be to adjust the divisions every year. Basically, instead of the top 4 from each division playing each other once the following year, the top 4 records would play each other twice a year. This would probably offer more good games, it would still give worse teams a shot at the playoffs (and therefore a motivation to improve), and you can still rotate cross-conference games so fans can see every team eventually.

You also don't have to re-shuffle every year. You could do it every 4 years with a combined record. That would give you a complete set of games against the other conference and filter out a lot of noise. Like you wouldn't automatically move the Jaguars or Vikings to the "top" division after one good season, but teams like the Chiefs would end up playing more games against the Patriots since they've consistently outmatched the AFC West (and same with the Pats in the East).
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druidcent
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Re: NFL 2019

Thu Dec 12, 2019 1:55 pm

Just to clarify though.. the Chiefs have only been really good the past 2 years or so.. Broncos have ruled the roost of the AFC West for a long time :) Also, most divisions have pretty good rivalries going, even if geographically they don't make sense..

As I understand the scheduling, outside of division games (6 per year), there 2 inter-divisional games (4 AFC, 4 NFC), and the remaining two games are against opponents in your conf at the same division finish as last year.

What I'd prefer to see though is removal of the playoff seeding system.. Division winners should get into the playoffs, but shouldn't get a home game if their record is worse than a wild card's overall record. That would make the late season games more interesting for sure.
 
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Re: NFL 2019

Thu Dec 12, 2019 2:35 pm

superjawes wrote:

MNF EDIT: The Eagles scored 20 unanswered points in the second half to smother Eli's comeback night.


Eli Manning wanted to win that game so bad... might be the last game of his career, and he want to go out with a winning record. Now he's 116-117...
 
superjawes
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Re: NFL 2019

Sun Dec 15, 2019 8:28 pm

Week 15 - Results

Thursday Day 12/12
New York Jets 21 at Baltimore Ravens 42

Sunday, 12/15
New England Patriots 34 at Cincinnati Bengals 13
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 38 at Detroit Lions 17
Houston Texans 24 at Tennessee Titans 21
Denver Broncos 3 at Kansas City Chiefs 23
Miami Dolphins 20 at New York Giants 36
Philadelphia Eagles 37 at Washington Redskins 27
Seattle Seahawks 30 at Carolina Panthers 24
Chicago Bears 13 at Green Bay Packers 21
Minnesota Vikings 39 at Los Angeles Chargers 10
Jacksonville Jaguars 20 at "Oakland" Raiders 16
Cleveland Browns 24 at Arizona Cardinals 38
Los Angeles Rams 21 at Dallas Cowboys 44
Atlanta Falcons 29 at San Francisco 49ers 22

Sunday Night Football
Buffalo Bills 17 at Pittsburgh Steelers 10

Monday Night Football, 12/16
Indianapolis Colts 7 at New Orleans Saints 34

OOF. Got burned by the Bay! Worse news for SF, though, who now drop back to the #5, with Seattle in control of the division. Also bad news for the Raiders, as one more win by the Steelers would eliminate their playoff hopes completely (along with the Browns).

Also with the NFC, we're up to 4 confirmed teams, and the #1 seed is hypothetically split between the 9ers and Seahawks at 11-3. The biggest question in the next two weeks is obviously going to be seeding. All of these top teams are very close, and many of them still have games to play before the season is over. Heck, even Philly gets a chance at redemption against Dallas next week!

SNF EDIT: Quack!

MNF EDIT: :-? Well that's quite a way to end the 2019 season...I have thoughts on the 2020 Colts that I will write up at some point.
Last edited by superjawes on Tue Dec 17, 2019 9:05 am, edited 1 time in total.
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TheEmrys
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Re: NFL 2019

Mon Dec 16, 2019 6:39 am

Tonight, I am a Colts fan. But, there will be a unique situation if the Saints win. There will be 4 teams at 11-3. No matter what happens, there will be no change in seeding. Seahawks are the first seed, despite losing to the Saints. This gets weird. For the divisions, head to head still matters so Seahawks are still the division leader. Sorry Niners fans. But, because there is a three way tie for records at 11-3, the only way head to head comes into play is if all three teams (Seahawks, Saints, and Packers) have played each other. Instead, it goes to divisional record, or Conference record (I can't remember which).

Crazy stuff.
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JustAnEngineer
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Re: NFL 2019

Mon Dec 16, 2019 9:19 am

Seahawks & 49ers will play again. Lower finishing of those two is the #5 NFC seed, playing first round in Dallas/Philadelphia. Between Seahawks & Saints, it could go back to the week 3 Tedy Bridgewater led head-to-head victory.
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Re: NFL 2019

Mon Dec 16, 2019 9:40 am

Yep, but with the Seahawks having a win over the Niners, and if the records remain even (which very well could happen), the best SanFran can hope for would be a split. Then the scenarios get interesting.
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Re: NFL 2019

Mon Dec 16, 2019 6:46 pm

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superjawes
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Re: NFL 2019

Tue Dec 17, 2019 9:18 am

TheEmrys wrote:
Yep, but with the Seahawks having a win over the Niners, and if the records remain even (which very well could happen), the best SanFran can hope for would be a split. Then the scenarios get interesting.

Again, I've been eyeing their Week 17 rematch in Seattle for weeks now. Since they have the same record (11-3), and they play winnable games (Rams @ SF, Cards @ SEA), that is my SNF, winner-take-all golden matchup. PERFECT game to end the regular season.

Plus, even if SF lose to the Rams on Saturday and drop a win behind the Seahawks, they might still have a shot at the division. They currently have identical division, conference, and non-conference records (3-1, 8-2, 3-1). I am not sure how deep they would have to go in tiebreakers in that scenario...but it would be interesting :lol:
On second thought, let's not go to TechReport. Tis a silly place.
 
superjawes
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Re: NFL 2019

Wed Dec 18, 2019 9:09 pm

Week 16

Saturday 12/21
Houston Texans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots
Los Angeles Rams at San Fransisco 49ers

Sunday, 12/22
Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins
Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets
New York Giants at Washington Redskins
Carolina Panthers at Indianapolis Colts
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns
Jacksonville Jaguars at Atlanta Falcons
New Orleans Saints at Tennessee Titans
"Oakland" Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers
Detroit Lions at Denver Broncos
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles

Sunday Night Football
Kansas City Chiefs at Chicago Bears

Monday Night Football, 12/23
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings

Crappy week for picks, eh? Only a handful of teams left in the running means many games with virtually no purpose (see Panthers at Colts). But I've been picking at least 4 a week, so I'm taking KC, Baltimore, SF, and Seattle. The NFC West teams need wins to protect/steal seeding, Baltimore are a win away from locking the #1 seed, and I think they are WAY over matched against the off-season Super Bowl favorites ( :lol: ). KC are still alive for a first round bye, and they are far more balanced than the Bears.

I think the best game to watch this week is on Monday. Packers and Vikings basically playing for the division this late in the season is a perfect "prove it" moment for either head coach. And while I am picking the 9ers, they are playing against the defending NFC Champs, so I don't expect that to be a quiet game.

If you want an "interesting to Jawes" matchup, try Bengals/Miami or Cowboys/Eagles. Flores really bungled up his GM's tanking plan, but a loss would even out the draft order a bit. There's also the "QB's playing for 2020 jobs" angle from both teams. The Cowboys Eagles game is basically for the NFC East, which most people are tagging as the "participation" slot in the 2019 playoffs, but I wouldn't bet against the Eagles in January, and both teams have a lot of pride on the line.
Last edited by superjawes on Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:59 am, edited 1 time in total.
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JustAnEngineer
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Re: NFL 2019

Wed Dec 18, 2019 9:34 pm

FiveThirtyEight is trying to convince me that the Cowboys are actually a great team with a bad record:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ye ... scenarios/
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Re: NFL 2019

Wed Dec 18, 2019 9:36 pm

JustAnEngineer wrote:
FiveThirtyEight is trying to convince me that the Cowboys are actually a great team with a bad record:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ye ... scenarios/

The Cowboys will NEVER be a great team with Jerry Jones as owner (c.f. Redskins/Snyder).
What we have today is way too much pluribus and not enough unum.
 
superjawes
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Re: NFL 2019

Wed Dec 18, 2019 10:06 pm

Captain Ned wrote:
JustAnEngineer wrote:
FiveThirtyEight is trying to convince me that the Cowboys are actually a great team with a bad record:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ye ... scenarios/

The Cowboys will NEVER be a great team with Jerry Jones as owner (c.f. Redskins/Snyder).

Agreed, and FiveThirtyEight weigh statistics too much. Just go to their main predictions page, plug in a W for the Ravens against the Browns to seal a first round bye (and home field advantage), then see their "Win Super Bowl Odds" change depending on Week 17 results. Statistically, I am sure there is some rationalization. Common sense, however, will tell you that the Ravens will have basically zero reason to play hard against the Steelers if they've already sealed the #1 seed, so that game would have zero bearing on Super Bowl odds. The Ravens would have no reason to give up their playbook or risk injury to their roster.

"Statistics" never tell the whole story. The best proof is the 2010 San Diego Chargers. #1 Offense AND #1 Defense. How did they do in the playoffs? They didn't even qualify.

Sure, Dallas might play a home game...they might even win a home game. But then do you really expect them to do on the road to beat any of the other NFC playoff contenders? TWO of them?! Yeah...no. That's not happening.
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TheEmrys
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Re: NFL 2019

Fri Dec 20, 2019 7:53 am

Football Outsiders, whose stats are pretty solid, had the Chargers lower than #1. NE had the #1 offense and #19 defense. Pitt was #1 in defense, and #5 in Offense. The Bolts were #4 in Offense, #7 in D. Very, very good, but not dominant. 2009, the Chargers will still very good at 13-3. But the offense ranked #4 while D was a dismal #23. It shows why the exited early.
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superjawes
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Re: NFL 2019

Fri Dec 20, 2019 10:49 am

TheEmrys wrote:
Football Outsiders, whose stats are pretty solid, had the Chargers lower than #1. NE had the #1 offense and #19 defense. Pitt was #1 in defense, and #5 in Offense. The Bolts were #4 in Offense, #7 in D. Very, very good, but not dominant. 2009, the Chargers will still very good at 13-3. But the offense ranked #4 while D was a dismal #23. It shows why the exited early.

You should watch the video I linked...

Also, I said 2010, and I think you were looking at ATL's record for 2010, not SD's. In 2010, despite that great team, the Bolts finished with the 9-7 record and missed the playoffs. Not an early exit...MISSED.
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TheEmrys
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Re: NFL 2019

Fri Dec 20, 2019 5:10 pm

No, those stats are for 2010, followed by 2009's. The video is terrible. It is measuring offense by yards and defense by yards allowed. Absolute rubbish stastically speaking. Read Football Outsiders if you want good statistics on football. Fivethirtyeight is very, very good and Nate is terrific at stats. But he came out of Baseball. They need to refine their analytics a bit. FO has some very, very good stats. DVOA being their metric which has a high correlation with season success.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2011/final-2010-dvoa-ratings
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JustAnEngineer
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Re: NFL 2019

Sat Dec 21, 2019 11:50 am

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/less ... ealize-it/
Jason La Canfora wrote:
Turns out, Gregg Williams was precisely what the franchise needed. He led the Browns to an unprecedented run of good form and quality play the likes of which had never been seen before under the Haslams. There were firm rules, there was clearly one voice in charge, and it didn't matter whether you were the hotshot top draft pick or the 53rd guy on the roster – you knew what would and would not be tolerated.
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Re: NFL 2019

Sat Dec 21, 2019 12:45 pm

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/race ... nish-line/
Bryan DeArdo wrote:
At 1-13, Cincinnati has a two-game "lead" on the Dolphins, Giants and Redskins with two games to go in the 2019 regular season. While the Lions also have three wins, their one tie eliminates them from having a shot at the first overall pick, unless they're willing to trade for it.

While the Dolphins beating the Patriots in Foxborough in Week 17 is as believable as the Patriots' embattled "Do Your Job" film producer, the Giants and Redskins remain a threat to the Bengals' chances at preserving the first overall pick.
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Re: NFL 2019

Mon Dec 23, 2019 9:17 am

Aaaand Seattle's season is over. No RB's on the most notorious running team in the NFL? LT out on a suspect O-line? Too many injuries for this year. First round Wildcard exit. There is even talk of Marshawn Lynch being called back.
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superjawes
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Re: NFL 2019

Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:43 am

Back from Christmas shenanigans. That new Raiders stadium looks pretty goo, btw.

Week 16

Saturday 12/21
Houston Texans 23 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20
Buffalo Bills 17 at New England Patriots 24
Los Angeles Rams 31 at San Fransisco 49ers 34

Sunday, 12/22
Cincinnati Bengals 35 at Miami Dolphins 38
Pittsburgh Steelers 10 at New York Jets 16
New York Giants 41 at Washington Redskins 35
Carolina Panthers 6 at Indianapolis Colts 38
Baltimore Ravens 31 at Cleveland Browns 15
Jacksonville Jaguars 12 at Atlanta Falcons 24
New Orleans Saints 38 at Tennessee Titans 28
"Oakland" Raiders 24 at Los Angeles Chargers 17
Detroit Lions 17 at Denver Broncos 27
Arizona Cardinals 27 at Seattle Seahawks 13
Dallas Cowboys 9 at Philadelphia Eagles 17

Sunday Night Football
Kansas City Chiefs 26 at Chicago Bears 3

Monday Night Football, 12/23
Green Bay Packers 23 at Minnesota Vikings 10

The Eagles still look capable of putting up a fight...the Cowboys do not. Also, I wouldn't count out Seattle after an in-division loss, especially since they have faith in Marshawn's return. They're another dangerous team who will be playing somehwere. We need Week 17 to determine where, though.

And I caught a bit of the BUF/NE game. Buffalo are for real. They're still a little rough, and I'm not sure they can win more than 1 playoff game, but McDermott is doing good things in Buffalo.
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superjawes
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Re: NFL 2019

Fri Dec 27, 2019 12:16 pm

And that brings us to the final week of regular season football. Like last year, I'm organizing by important vs. non-important.

Week 17

Games with No Playoff Teams
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams

Games with a Playoff Team, but no Seeding Significance
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills

Games with Seeding Significance
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans
Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens
"Oakland" Raiders at Denver Broncos

Sunday Night Football, Regular Season Finale
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks

This week might have a few more significant games than you might expect. This mostly comes down to seeding, where KC and NE could still flip into and out of a first round bye, and the NFC is just a mess, with two divisions still up in the air, and the two division winners still in competition for top seeds.

Fortunately, I think there are some good picks among the important games. First, I do like the Chiefs getting win #12 at home. I also think the Eagles win the NFC East outright in Jersey. While the Raiders have a mathematical chance to make a Wild Card, I'm picking against them twice. Baltimore have already announced benchings to protect their players, giving Pittsburgh an easy in, but I also think Vic's Broncos get a home finale win to finish 2019 strong.
On second thought, let's not go to TechReport. Tis a silly place.
 
superjawes
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Re: NFL 2019

Sun Dec 29, 2019 8:11 pm

Week 17 - Results

Games with No Playoff Teams
Cleveland Browns 23 at Cincinnati Bengals 33
Atlanta Falcons 28 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 22
Indianapolis Colts 20 at Jacksonville Jaguars 37
Arizona Cardinals 24 at Los Angeles Rams 31

Games with a Playoff Team, but no Seeding Significance
Chicago Bears 21 at Minnesota Vikings 19
New York Jets 13 at Buffalo Bills 6

Games with Seeding Significance
Miami Dolphins 27 at New England Patriots 24
Los Angeles Chargers 21 at Kansas City Chiefs 31
Green Bay Packers 23 at Detroit Lions 20
New Orleans Saints 42 at Carolina Panthers 10
Philadelphia Eagles 34 at New York Giants 17
Tennessee Titans 35 at Houston Texans 14
Washington Redskins 16 at Dallas Cowboys 44
Pittsburgh Steelers 10 at Baltimore Ravens 28
"Oakland" Raiders 15 at Denver Broncos 16

Sunday Night Football, Regular Season Finale
San Francisco 49ers 26 at Seattle Seahawks 21

AFC is locked after Tennessee earned their spot. They would have gotten help anyway as the Steelers and Raiders both failed to win their finales. A week 17 miracle(?) win by the Dolphins paired with a KC win sends New England OUT of the #2 seed, giving Andy Reid and company a week off.

Over in the NFC, the Packer's win sealed a first round bye, but their final seed will be determined by SF and Seattle tonight. The Cowboys did their part by beating Washington, but the Eagles took destiny into their own hands and won the NFC East outright.

We really can't leave it at that, though. I've been praising Pederson and the Eagles for a long time, even when their performance has been...less than stellar, but they have consistently performed well no matter who is on the field. That team is absolutely DECIMATED by injury, and yet they pulled off a winning record to take the East. They will play the Seahawks or 49ers next week, and neither of those juggernauts should expect an easy win in Philly. Easily the most dangerous 9-7 team, and they're underdogs...again.

EDIT: What. An. Ending...too bad we're going to be talking about DPI non-calls again.
Last edited by superjawes on Sun Dec 29, 2019 11:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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JustAnEngineer
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Re: NFL 2019

Sun Dec 29, 2019 8:39 pm

The Eagles had 24 players miss games this season. :o

Freddie Kitchens is one and done:
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/brow ... ince-2009/
Jimmy Haslam wrote:
We thank Freddie for his hard work and commitment to this organization but did not see the success or opportunities for improvement to move forward with him as our head coach.
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superjawes
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Re: NFL 2019

Sun Dec 29, 2019 8:48 pm

JustAnEngineer wrote:
The Eagles had 24 players miss games this season. :o
I think I saw a record that they were the first team to have 4,000+ passing yards and ZERO receivers breaking the 500 mark.

I also heard that one player had to go to the locker room today because there was a line at the blue tent...

JustAnEngineer wrote:
Freddie Kitchens is one and done:
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/brow ... ince-2009/
Jimmy Haslam wrote:
We thank Freddie for his hard work and commitment to this organization but did not see the success or opportunities for improvement to move forward with him as our head coach.

Cleveland reboot Mark...how many are we up to now?
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Re: NFL 2019

Sun Dec 29, 2019 8:51 pm

When the Browns hire their next head coach, it will be their seventh full-time coach since 2009. Eric Mangini, Pat Shurmur, Rob Chudzinski, Mike Pettine, Hue Jackson and Freddie Kitchens have all briefly graced the sidelines for Cleveland.
That doesn’t count interim coaches like Gregg Williams.
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superjawes
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Re: NFL 2019

Mon Dec 30, 2019 1:30 am

Some quick oddities of the 2019 playoffs: The Saints, Chiefs, and Eagles are all headed into the playoffs with identical records to their 2018 campaigns. However, due to the addition of the Ravens, 49ers, and...whatever happened with the NFC East, their seeding is different. The Saints get the worst deal, dropping from #1 all the way to #3, losing a week off in addition to home field advantage. Also, the Patriots have a better record than last year, but they lost their first round bye after a Week 17 loss (and KC's tiebreaker).

As for division champions, the AFC remained unchanged. All 4 2018 champs repeated. In the NFC, only the Saints are repeat champions (their third in a row), while the 2018 division winners for the North, East, and West didn't even make the playoffs.

Before I share thoughts on all the playoff teams, I also have DATA to prove that the 2019 playoff class is better than 2018. The combined AFC and NFC records were 60-36 (.625) and 58-38 (.604) in 2018. This year, the AFC got boosted to 67-29 (.698), while the NFC can boast an impressive 69-27 (.727).

2019 AFC Playoff Teams

1. Baltimore Ravens (14-2): here they are...your most terrifying team of the 2019 postseason. You might look at their Week 17 win and think, "No big deal. We knew the Ravens were good." But remember that they did that while resting many of their stars, including MVP candidate Lamar Jackson, and the Steelers needed a win to steal a wild card spot. The Ravens beat the desperate Steelers with RGIII! Who can beat them?

2. Kansas City Chiefs (12-4): or right. Here's the Ravens' biggest threat on the road to Miami. Patrick Mahomes is still one of the best QBs in the league, and now he's got two new advantages--experience and a defense. Seriously, how KC have played defensively in these last few weeks probably makes them better than their 2018 team, even with the drop in seeding.

3. New England Patriots (11-5): cracks are forming...this is still the most experienced team, but New England play their best postseason football at home, and they'll likely have to play road games in KC and Baltimore to make the Super Bowl (again), and they've lost to both teams this year. Not to mention that they still have the formidable Titans to host first.

4. Houston Texans (10-6): the Texans have won the AFC South 4 of the last 5 years, but they only have 1 playoff win to show for it (against the hapless Raiders). They've also notched losses to the Ravens and Titans, so it's fitting that they're the #4 seed. I don't expect much from them.

5. Buffalo Bills (10-6): the Bills are good. Sure, they got swept by the Patriots, and they also fell to the Ravens, but 5 of their 6 losses were by one score, and their strength is defense. A good defense won't guarantee a championship, but it makes it a whole lot easier to find a functional offense. They probably don't get an extra game in Miami, but they aren't pushovers.

6. Tennessee Titans (9-7): Ryan Tannehill, eh? The Titans were one game away from making the playoffs in 2018, and they continue to do well in 2018. I also don't expect much from this team, given their limited playoff experience, but they could throw a wrench into some plans. Plus, they did hand KC a loss in Week 10.


2019 NFC Playoff Teams

1. San Francisco 49ers (13-3): the 9ers are one of the most balanced teams in football, and could easily go blow for blow with the Ravens. (And they did. In Baltimore). All of their losses were close games, and they have some of the best talent in the league (hello Kittle and Bosa). They do lack some experience, though, and they might have some trouble having played three NFC playoff teams in the regular season. Still, great team, and I hope they're a blast to watch in January.

2. Green Bay Packers (13-3): Yeah, whatever, the Pack has been to the playoffs before...but not like this. Their defense...is decent? Aaron Rodgers is still one of the best QBs in the league, but he's had to do much less than years past, AND they get a week off, AND they get to host a game in the frozen North. I am very curious to see how LaFleur does in the postseason, but Cheeseheads have plenty of reasons to be excited.

3. New Orleans Saints (13-3): Ouch...matched their record but missed the bye. That hurts, but I'll draw your attention to weeks 3 through 7. Drew Brees missed 5 games this season after thumb surgery, and backup Teddy Bridgewater went undefeated. Sean Payton is one of the top coaches in the league, and definitely the best in the NFC. His Saints could beat anyone. (That doesn't mean they will, but they could.)

4. Philadelphia Eagles (9-7): Wow, the Eagles are headed into the playoffs as underdogs...again. If Payton is the best coach in the NFC, Pederson is a close second for taking this broken mess to the playoffs. The Eagles are the most dangerous team in the NFC right now. They're definitely beatable, but they're going to give their opponents hell. Don't count them out just yet.

5. Seattle Seahawks (11-5): Marshawn Lynch did not provide the magic for an NFC West title, but the Seahawks still look good. They're pretty well rounded, and Pete Carroll is a good coach. They are definitely the most capable wild card of the year. And remember that they were inches away from getting a home playoff game.

6. Minnesota Vikings (10-6): the at the bottom of the list is also at the bottom of my expectations. Mike Zimmer does have a good defense, but after getting embarrassed at home last week, I just don't know if this team is balanced enough to make a convincing run. They start with New Orleans, and if they survive that, they head to the Bay to face the #1 seed, and if they survive THAT, they head to Seattle or Green Bay, and they're 0-3 against those teams already.
On second thought, let's not go to TechReport. Tis a silly place.
 
JustAnEngineer
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Re: NFL 2019

Mon Dec 30, 2019 9:48 am

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... edictions/
Probability of winning the Super Bowl (as of 12/30):
46% Baltimore Ravens
14% Kansas City Chiefs
13% San Francisco 49ers
11% New Orleans Saints
8% Green Bay Packers
3% New England Patriots
2% Philadelphia Eagles
1% Minnesota Vikings
<1% Houston Texans
<1% Tennessee Titans
<1% Seattle Seahawks
<1% Buffalo Bills

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds
Probability of winning the Super Bowl (as of 12/30):
44% Baltimore Ravens
14% San Francisco 49ers
14% Kansas City Chiefs
13% New Orleans Saints
4% Green Bay Packers
2% New England Patriots
2% Tennessee Titans
2% Seattle Seahawks
2% Minnesota Vikings
1% Philadelphia Eagles
1% Buffalo Bills
<1% Houston Texans

https://www.sportsline.com/nfl/odds/futures/
Odds to win Super Bowl LIV (from Westgate as of 12/30):
2.25:1 Baltimore Ravens
3.5:1 San Francisco 49ers
4:1 Kansas City Chiefs
5:1 New Orleans Saints
12:1 Green Bay Packers
14:1 New England Patriots
30:1 Seattle Seahawks
40:1 Houston Texans
40:1 Minnesota Vikings
40:1 Philadelphia Eagles
50:1 Buffalo Bills
50:1 Tennessee Titans

The Chiefs securing the bye should push them up and the Patriots down.
Last edited by JustAnEngineer on Thu Jan 02, 2020 11:14 am, edited 3 times in total.
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TheEmrys
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Re: NFL 2019

Mon Dec 30, 2019 12:20 pm

JustAnEngineer wrote:
The Eagles had 24 players miss games this season. :o

Freddie Kitchens is one and done:
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/brow ... ince-2009/
Jimmy Haslam wrote:
We thank Freddie for his hard work and commitment to this organization but did not see the success or opportunities for improvement to move forward with him as our head coach.


Seattle has lost 21 players, many for multiple games. LT out for 3 weeks, #1 receiver out, 3 top RB's in the depth chart out for the year, the starting AND backup center.... There was interesting measurement at Seattle's SB Nation site (an excellent analytical resource) measured how many plays were missed by starters by Man Games Lost. Here are the top four and their records:
1. Washington 3-13
2. Seattle 11-5 (255 man games Lost)
3. New York Jets 7-9
4. Miami 5-11

Most of the data is behind a paywall. But Seattle has had it rough and easily has the best record of the injury bugged teams.

As an aside, it is a crime that neither Peate Carroll or John Schneider have won Coach or Executive of the Year. Ever.
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