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Week 5

Thursday Night Football, 10/8
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears

Sunday, 10/11
Los Angeles Rams at Football Team Washingtoners
Philadelphia Eagles at Pittsburgh Steelers
Arizona Cardinals at New York Jets
Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons
Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys
Indianapolis Colts at Cleveland Browns
Denver Broncos at New England Patriots COVID Reshedule

Sunday Night Football
Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks

Monday Night Football, 10/12
Los Angeles Chargers at New Orleans Saints

Um...we'll see? (Possibly Monday 10/12)
Buffalo Bills at Tennessee Titans

I really want to pick the Chiefs this week, but after possible exposure to COVID against NE, I think I'll pass . Instead, I'll take the Ravens over the Bengals, the Cowboys over the Giants, and the Seahawks over the Vikings. Baltimore and Dallas are just the better teams in the matchups, even if they are divisional games. The Vikings showed that they can travel and play well on limited practice, but only against the terrible Texans. Seattle is a different beast. Even without the normal crowd noise from the 12s, Seattle should win this.

If you're looking for games to watch, pencil in Raiders/Chiefs. As long as there aren't any infectious surprises, the game should be good. I also have a soft spot for the Colts/Browns game. Confession: this was another game I considered traveling for, as I would love to tailgate at least once with the Cleveland faithful. I have mad respect for a fan base who continues to show up despite decades of misery. Oh! And don't forget the Washington game. Alex Smith will be suiting up for the first time in almost two years. Sure, it's just as a backup, but I've been rooting for his recovery this whole time, and it's nice to see him turn that around. Cheers, Alex.

As of writing this, I haven't seen news of postponing or cancelling the Titans/Bills game, but just this morning their positive test count rose to 23. With Buffalo due to play KC one week from today, things are complicated. This game looks like it might be a forfeit by Tennessee, honestly. Otherwise, the KC/BUF matchup will need to be moved... Heck, they might need to move that regardless. Reid and Mahomes are good, but a forfeit by Tennessee means that Buffalo will be extra rested while KC have limited rest after a divisional matchup.

Sidebar: Thursday Night Football is a dumb idea and they should stop doing it.

Week 5 - Results

Thursday Night Football, 10/8
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19 at Chicago Bears 20

Sunday, 10/11
Los Angeles Rams 30 at Football Team Washingtoners 10
Philadelphia Eagles 29 at Pittsburgh Steelers 38
Arizona Cardinals 30 at New York Jets 10
Las Vegas Raiders 40 at Kansas City Chiefs 32
Jacksonville Jaguars 14 at Houston Texans 30
Cincinnati Bengals 3 at Baltimore Ravens 27
Carolina Panthers 23 at Atlanta Falcons 16
Miami Dolphins 43 at San Francisco 49ers 17
New York Giants 34 at Dallas Cowboys 37
Indianapolis Colts 23 at Cleveland Browns 32

Sunday Night Football
Minnesota Vikings 26 at Seattle Seahawks 27

Monday Night Football, 10/12
Los Angeles Chargers 27 at New Orleans Saints 30

Um...we'll see? (Possibly Monday 10/12)
Buffalo Bills at Tennessee Titans

Great to see Alex Smith get some time on the field, even if it wasn't pretty. Not so great seeing Andy Dalton return to the football field, though... Really hope Dak is able to come back eventually, and I'm glad the Cowboys were able to pull of a win for him. Meanwhile, Phil Rivers is really testing my patience. He's getting paid more than Aaron Rodgers, so there is NO EXCUSE to screw up like he was screwing up today two INTs (should have been 3), and a safety on intentional grounding. Forking terrible.

Oh, and there's trouble brewing in San Francisco. We knew the Dolphins had some magic going on, but traveling to the Wast Coast and doing THAT to the NFC champs, and getting Jimmy G. benched? Even with injuries, there's some drama in Santa Clara.

Week 6

Sunday, 10/18
Denver Broncos at New England Patriots
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers
Baltimore Ravens at Philadelphia Eagles
Washington Football Washers at New York Giants
Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts
Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings
Detroit Lions at Jacksonville Jaguars
Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins
Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sunday Night Football
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers

Monday, 10/19
Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills

Monday Night Football, 10/19
Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys

Unfortunately my Colts got news of positive COVID tests, so that game is up in the air until we have more concrete news.

I feel like this week will be a turning point for some teams, so picks are limited. I'm taking the Vikings over the Falcons just because that's an established head coach against an interim. I'm also taking Flores and his Dolphins over Gase and his mess, and with all the drama from last week, I am taking the Rams over the 9ers in prime time. Normally I would take the home team, coming off a loss, in a divisional matchup, but the Rams are looking good again.

If the Rams pick isn't good, it should still be a good game, so that leads games to watch on Sunday. Packers/Bucs should also be good, and Chiefs/Bills is the better matchup on Monday.

EDIT: Huzzah! Colts' re-tests came back negative!

Week 6 - Results

Sunday, 10/18
Denver Broncos 18 at New England Patriots 12
Houston Texans 36 at Tennessee Titans 42
Cleveland Browns 7 at Pittsburgh Steelers 38
Baltimore Ravens 30 at Philadelphia Eagles 28
Washington Football Washers 19 at New York Giants 20
Cincinnati Bengals 27 at Indianapolis Colts 31
Atlanta Falcons 40 at Minnesota Vikings 23
Detroit Lions 34 at Jacksonville Jaguars 16
Chicago Bears 23 at Carolina Panthers 16
New York Jets 0 at Miami Dolphins 24
Green Bay Packers 10 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 38

Sunday Night Football
Los Angeles Rams 16 at San Francisco 49ers 24

Monday, 10/19
Kansas City Chiefs 26 at Buffalo Bills 17

Monday Night Football, 10/19
Arizona Cardinals 38 at Dallas Cowboys 10

The Minnesota Vikings and getting embarrassed at home. Is there a more perfect duo? Riverboat Ron gives Joe Judge his first victory as head coach, the Bears are making their case to be a respected 5-1 team, the Jets remain the only winless team in the league, and the Packers just boned it up in Tampa.

The NFC East has become a laughing-stock. The 20-19 loss to the Giants just tells you how stupid the Washington coach was - instead of taking the extra point and sending it into overtime.

I got to watch my own Ravens somehow being infected with ineptitude by traveling to Filthy. It was painful watching them continue to end drives on the same holding/illegal procedure penalties for three quarters straight (and almost losing the game.)

And Monday's barn burner was even more boring thanks to Andey. If there is any one QB out there who mes Dak loom effective, it's Dalton.

Any chance they will revise their "best of the worst gets in" rule to require the team to have a non-losing record?

The rest of the games were at least watchable.

defaultluser wrote:

The NFC East has become a laughing-stock. The 20-19 loss to the Giants just tells you how stupid the Washington coach was - instead of taking the extra point and sending it into overtime.

This was not a bad decision? You get the 2 points and you effectively win the game right there. No overtime risk. I've seen far worse decisions burn many teams in the past, so I will not now, nor ever, criticize this kind of risk when it means winning outright (also see Houston this week).

defaultluser wrote:

And Monday's barn burner was even more boring thanks to Andey. If there is any one QB out there who mes Dak loom effective, it's Dalton.

I didn't watch, but the rumblings coming out of Dallas now seems to be coaching-focused, and I'm inclined to believe that over trying to blame the semi-competent veteran. Dallas have been one of the best stacked teams talent-wise. but they've been crushed by poor management (coaching + Jones' ego). What's worse is McCarthy took time off (purportedly) studying the game, and THIS is what results? Sorry Mike. You are the same old coach that squandered Aaron's career in GB.

defaultluser wrote:

Any chance they will revise their "best of the worst gets in" rule to require the team to have a non-losing record?

Never. You win your division, you win a playoff spot. New England's long-term success was built around being the best in a mediocre division, giving them constant playoff experience to handle tough moments (seriously, a "bad" NE year was a 4-2 division record). We've seen #6 seeds make it to the Super Bowl, and I actually think it would be neat to see a team turn a losing record into a Super Bowl appearance because they got good when it mattered.

superjawes wrote:

This was not a bad decision? You get the 2 points and you effectively win the game right there. No overtime risk. I've seen far worse decisions burn many teams in the past, so I will not now, nor ever, criticize this kind of risk when it means winning outright (also see Houston this week).

For the same reason most teams don't go on 4th and 10 inside the 50 when you have a much better chance of kicking a field goal, and coming away with 3 .

Unless you have an amazing playbook, going for two is a lot lower probability than making an Extra Point. And thanks to the NFL's revised rules, each team would get a chance if the other scored a FG. And in that crapfest, it's unlikely either team would have scored a TD on it's first possession.

Don't point fingers at a much higher-scoring game just to make your empty point - Derrick Henry is a 4th-quyuarter touchdown machine, BUT he is not a member of the sucky NY Giants. If I had the same decision to make in the Texans Titans game (with your theoretical Texans scoring a TD AT the end), I would have chosen Go For Two.

But because the Titans actually outscored the Texans 15 to 7 in the fourth (and the Titans scored the LAST TD), it's a pointless thought exercise; EVEN THE TITANS had the chance to go for two, and avoid overtime, but felt they could trust their offense to finish the game with a TD (so they had Groskowski kick the point.)

This is a pointless mind exercise that never actually happened for the Texans (they were overwhelmed, and nothing was going to save them), but DID actually happen to Washington. One team made the worst choice when they were given the chance (and it cost them the game instantly)

I'm simply pointing-out that all 4 of the teams in the East are poorly-coached, and the Giants lucked their way into a win by a poor coaching decision.
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Dude, you're totally missing the point. Yes, kicking the extra point is a higher probability, but you have no idea whether or not overtime will go your way. A coin toss can basically end OT before it starts (again, see what happened Houston). Ron Rivera chose a path that would have won his team the game while he had control of the ball, just like Romeo Crennel did. It doesn't matter that they both failed. It doesn't matter who they were playing. Had both teams succeeded, we would be celebrating how "gutsy" and "smart" those coaches were for winning the game when they had the chance.

Don't criticize the coaches who take smart risks and fail. Criticize the coaches who take zero risks and lose.

Week 7

Thursday Night Football, 10/22
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles

Sunday, 10/18
Pittsburgh Steelers at Tennessee Titans
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Washingball Washingers
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints
Green Bay Packers at Houston Texans
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals
Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons
Jacksonville Jaguars at Los Angeles Chargers
San Francisco 49ers at New England Patriots
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Las Vegas Raiders

Sunday Night Football
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals

Monday Night Football, 10/19
Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Rams

I'm taking 4 road teams as picks this week, just for fun. Okay, not entirely for fun. First, I'm taking the Packers and Bills in bounce-back games against weaker opponents. Bills should be an easy win (and more embarrassment for New York), and while the Pack are facing an opponent eager to win, I think Rodgers and LaFleur know they have to make adjustments to keep their season on track. Testing that in Houston seems like a good idea. I am also picking two of the best teams in division matchups: KC and Seattle. These picks feel risky after the Broncos showed promise and Arizona's production this season, but the Chiefs are still the Chiefs, and Seattle are coming off their bye. Hoping both of those games are good.

And if there are other games to watch, I would probably pencil in Steelers/Titans and Bears/Rams for sure. The battle between undefeated teams should tell us a lot about one of them at least, and the Bears and Rams are two teams fighting to prove themselves.

EDIT: Hawks/Cards got moved into prime time (sticking with the Hawks). Bucs/Raiders into an afternoon slot.

superjawes wrote:

Dude, you're totally missing the point. Yes, kicking the extra point is a higher probability, but you have no idea whether or not overtime will go your way. A coin toss can basically end OT before it starts (again, see what happened Houston). Ron Rivera chose a path that would have won his team the game while he had control of the ball, just like Romeo Crennel did. It doesn't matter that they both failed. It doesn't matter who they were playing. Had both teams succeeded, we would be celebrating how "gutsy" and "smart" those coaches were for winning the game when they had the chance.

Don't criticize the coaches who take smart risks and fail. Criticize the coaches who take zero risks and lose.

I criticize poor coaching decisions, you seem to be missing this significance. By your logic, we should ALWAYS go for two points.

We don't, because we understand the odds are VASTLY against us (unless you have a trick play waiting for this that can't fail). THAT ASSUMES YOUR COACHING STAFF HAS A GOOD PLAYBOOK TO RELY ON (not true with either the Giants or Washington)

If yor opponent is unlikely to score a touchdown in the next possession (assuming they get the ball first), then you will have an even better chance of making that PAT (95%) plus making that field goal to stay in the game (85-90%) versus the 50% average success rate.

And if your playbook/QB sucks , then your success rate is way lower tyhan 50%. just look at this assessment form SBNation

Despite Washington, Tennessee, Denver, Atlanta, and especially Detroit dragging down the class, collectively the league successfully converted 253 of the 505 attempts, good for an average of 1.002 points per try (the attempts of the 27 teams that didn’t have 2-point yips produced an average of 1.082 points each).

https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2020/1/30/ ... l-dorktown

So blindly pretending that 2-point conversion success-rate have nothing to do with the team you are playing for is just ignoring the truth. If you have a 30% 2PT success rate then you'd have to be nuts to go with that over taking your chances with overtime.

defaultluser wrote:

I criticize poor coaching decisions, you seem to be missing this significance.

But in this case you are criticizing good coaching decisions! Convert the 2 points and WIN. Immediately. While the game is under your control. That is a GOOD decision. Not a bad one.

defaultluser wrote:

By your logic, we should ALWAYS go for two points.

There actually is a school of thought where teams should always go for two. Heck, your league-wide data supports it. Even a kicker with 100% PAT conversion will, at best, return 1 point per try. Anything >50% success on 2-point conversions (1.002 for the league) results in more points than kicking. (Oh, and if you plan for 2-point conversions, your chances to convert are better.)

But the thing YOU keep missing is that not all extra points are created equal. Kicking an extra point in the 1st quarter is different than kicking one in the 4th. Because the 4th quarter is closer to the end of the game. Where a greater lead (or any lead) has a greater impact on your probability of winning. The decision we are talking about is the decision to WIN. Not to continue the game, but to WIN immediately (while your team has possession). Giving the ball back to the Giants was conceding to ~50% win chance. Converting the 2-point conversion would have been ~100% win chance. I don't care how bad the Washington Football Team is or what their 2-point conversion probability was. Ron Rivera tried to shift his win probability to 100%. That will always be a good coaching decision in my book.

defaultluser wrote:

THAT ASSUMES YOUR COACHING STAFF HAS A GOOD PLAYBOOK TO RELY ON (not true with either the Giants or Washington)

THIS DOESN'T MATTER. Even a good play can go TU on a miscue or coverage mismatch. Even a good team can fail its 2-point try. But we aren't really talking about how good the playbook or team is. We're talking about shifting your win chance to 100% versus 50%. We're talking about kicking away the ball and your control of the game versus winning outright. It's not just about probabilities, but the potential outcomes.

defaultluser wrote:

So blindly pretending that 2-point conversion success-rate have nothing to do with the team you are playing for is just ignoring the truth. If you have a 30% 2PT success rate then you'd have to be nuts to go with that over taking your chances with overtime.

See, you're missing the impact of that 30% success rate in this situation. It's a 30% chance to win versus a 95% chance to postpone the outcome of the game.

Just follow me for a sec. If you do concede to overtime, you're committing to more work and higher risk of player injury for ~50% chance of winning. If you concede to overtime and lose the coin toss, you're down to ~47% chance of winning, and that's at the coin toss. At the start of OT, you can be below 50% win chance, putting your players into harm's way (which hurts you chances of winning in future games), against the winless GIANTS.

So Ron Rivera rolled the dice and lost. He made a good choice. It WAS risky, but he tried to win when he had the chance. He should be celebrated for that, not criticized.

Week 7 - Results

Thursday Night Football, 10/22
New York Giants 21 at Philadelphia Eagles 22

Sunday, 10/18
Pittsburgh Steelers 27 at Tennessee Titans 24
Dallas Cowboys 3 at Washington Washingball Washingers 25
Buffalo Bills 18 at New York Jets 10
Carolina Panthers 24 at New Orleans Saints 27
Green Bay Packers 35 at Houston Texans 20
Cleveland Browns 37 at Cincinnati Bengals 34
Detroit Lions 23 at Atlanta Falcons 22
Jacksonville Jaguars 29 at Los Angeles Chargers 39
San Francisco 49ers 33 at New England Patriots 6
Kansas City Chiefs 43 at Denver Broncos 16
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 45 at Las Vegas Raiders 20

Sunday Night Football
Seattle Seahawks 34 at Arizona Cardinals 37

Monday Night Football, 10/19
Chicago Bears 10 at Los Angeles Rams 24

Well so much for Dalton being worth some extra wins. I think Dallas are en route to a complete collapse. The news coming out of the locker room, the generally lackluster performance from McCarthy, and getting blown out by the Team With No Name. Is there any real hope for a 2021 bounce-back?

I know Atlanta are familiar with misery, but losing (in part) because Gurley scored a touchdown feels like Detroit passing on their cursed luck, or at least sharing it for a day. On the bright side, losing more games means better picks in the Spring!

Week 14 - League Status

Definitely had some division shuffling since Week 8. A string of trouble for the 9ers and Cards bumped the NFC West down a spot, allowing the AFC North to jump ahead. The NFC North also slipped a bit, tying them with the AFC West and NFC South at .521. The East remains on the bottom...probably for the rest of the season.

↑1st 2nd: AFC North: 29-18-1 (.615)
↓2nd 1st: NFC West: 27-21 (.563)
↑T-3rd 4th: AFC West: 25-23 (.521)
↑T-3rd 5th: NFC South: 25-23 (.521)
↔T-3rd: NFC North: 25-23 (.5521)
↑6th 7th: AFC East: 23-25 (.479)
↓7th 6th: AFC South: 21-27 (.438)
↔8th: NFC East: 16-31-1 (.344)

ALL AFC: 98-93-1 (.513)
ALL NFC: 93-98-1 (.487)

The New Head Coach situation does look a bit rosier now thanks to recent wins by Rivera and Judge, boosting the overall record from .371 just a few weeks ago, and although the New New HCs are still boasting a better overall record, I'm willing to chalk some of the Cowboys' trouble up to a terrible, terrible QB situation.

Kevin Stefanski, Cleveland Browns: 9-3 (.750)
Matt Rhule, Carolina Panthers: 4-8 (.333)
Joe Judge, New York Giants: 5-7 (.417)
Mike McCarthy, Dallas Cowboys: 3-9 (.250)
Ron Rivera, Washington: 5-7 (.417)

ALL New Head Coaches: 26-34 (.433)
Minus McCarthy and Rivera: 18-18 (.500)

Week 8

Thursday Night Football, 10/29
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers

Sunday, 11/1
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens
Los Angeles Rams at Miami Dolphins
New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers
Indianapolis Colts at Detroit Lions
Las Vegas Raiders at Cleveland Browns
Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks
New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears

Sunday Night Football
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles

Monday Night Football, 11/2
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Giants

Welcome to the middle of the regular season. This week I could not resist taking the Chiefs over the Jets, which would be good for 8 straight losses by Adam Gase. I am also taking flaming thumbtacks over the Bengals, and Buffalo winning at home. I don't want to pick the Eagles this week, but pair the turmoil in Dallas with Dalton in concussion protocol, and I think Philly should be able to win one at home.

If you want good games to watch, Steelers/Ravens could upset Pittsburgh's current run of wins and toss control of the division up in the air. The Colts' trip to Detroit could also be good to watch, and I think the game of the week should be 49ers/Seahawks.

Week 8 - Results

Thursday Night Football, 10/29
Atlanta Falcons 25 at Carolina Panthers 17

Sunday, 11/1
Pittsburgh Steelers 28 at Baltimore Ravens 24
Los Angeles Rams 17 at Miami Dolphins 28
New York Jets 9 at Kansas City Chiefs 35
Minnesota Vikings 28 at Green Bay Packers 22
Indianapolis Colts 41 at Detroit Lions 21
Las Vegas Raiders 16 at Cleveland Browns 6
Tennessee Titans 20 at Cincinnati Bengals 31
New England Patriots 21 at Buffalo Bills 24
Los Angeles Chargers 30 at Denver Broncos 31
San Francisco 49ers 27 at Seattle Seahawks 37
New Orleans Saints 26 at Chicago Bears 23

Sunday Night Football
Dallas Cowboys 9 at Philadelphia Eagles 23

Monday Night Football, 11/2
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 25 at New York Giants 23

The Falcons hold on to a lead! The Bengals upset the Titans! The Patriots lose in a very un-Patriots way!

Missed the afternoon window and SNF, but I did get to see my Colts show their promise, even if it was against the Lions. Being able to win games on defense is something we desperately need. Up in Green Bay...I'm already ready to hit the reset button, because this is just frustrating. This team has lots of talent in *some* areas, but when they lose, they lose big. If Gutekunst and LaFleur want to run Aaron Rodgers out of town, just do it already. It will be better for everyone.

Josh McCown is back!

Okay, I have an idea...for the 2021 and 2022 seasons, let's just rotate Josh through the rosters so he can play for the remaining 20 NFL teams. One new team a week with multiple weeks off. We complete the full set of 32 Josh McCown jerseys.

Rotate him with Ryan Fitzpatrick?

Oooooh, let's make it a race! Who will be the first to reach 32?

Week 9

Thursday Night Football, 11/5
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers

Sunday, 11/8
New York Giants at Washingtons Whatzits
Chicago Bears at Tennessee Titans
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings
Carolina Panthers at Kansas City Chiefs
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars
Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts
Seattle Seahawks at Buffalo Bills
Denver Broncos at Atlanta Falcons
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers
Pittsburgh Steelers at Dallas Cowboys
Miami Dolphins at Arizona Cardinals

Sunday Night Football
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Monday Night Football, 11/9
New England Patriots at New York Jets

Surely LaFleur and the Packers won't lose a third straight to the 9ers...right? After all the injuries? Better pad out the picks by taking the Chiefs at home and the Steelers in Jerry's World, where the Cowboys are expecting a beat down. I'm also taking the Raiders in a game that they "should" win if they really want to be counted as "good" this year.

On the bright side, there are several games that should be great this week. My Colts are in an important game against the Ravens. We've lost against worse teams this year, so getting it together against Baltimore is important. Seahawks/Bills has Wilson v Allen shootout potential. Dolphins/Cardinals could also be a thriller. Both of those teams are on much better pace compared to 2019, and they both have real shots at winning their divisions (with help, of course). And finally, Sunday Night Football very well could be the NFC South Championship game. The Saints have a shot at getting both tiebreakers, or the Bucs could move 1 win ahead in a split. Either way, the division will look very different on Monday morning.

Week 9 - Results

Thursday Night Football, 11/5
Green Bay Packers 34 at San Francisco 49ers 17

Sunday, 11/8
New York Giants 23 at Washingtons Whatzits 20
Chicago Bears 17 at Tennessee Titans 24
Detroit Lions 20 at Minnesota Vikings 34
Carolina Panthers 31 at Kansas City Chiefs 33
Houston Texans 27 at Jacksonville Jaguars 25
Baltimore Ravens 24 at Indianapolis Colts 10
Seattle Seahawks 34 at Buffalo Bills 44
Denver Broncos 27 at Atlanta Falcons 34
Las Vegas Raiders 31 at Los Angeles Chargers 26
Pittsburgh Steelers 24 at Dallas Cowboys 19
Miami Dolphins 34 at Arizona Cardinals 21

Sunday Night Football
New Orleans Saints 38 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

Monday Night Football, 11/9
New England Patriots 30 at New York Jets 27

My Colts are in an important game against the Ravens. We've lost against worse teams this year, so getting it together against Baltimore is important.

That was the opposite of "getting it together" against Baltimore... My biggest fear about Rivers was that he was too expensive for what we were getting, and surprise! That's exactly what's up. If he's stuck in the starting position, Jacoby needs a demotion so that Eason can start preparing. 2020 is mostly a bust if we keep playing offense like that, so we might as well get a head start on 2021.

But hey, at least I was perfect on my picks for the week! Even if 3 out of 4 were really close...

EDIT: Thirty. Eight. To. Three. I only caught parts of it (and only after Nola were up 28-0), but that was the kind of beat down I expected in Dallas!

Week 10

Thursday Night Football, 11/12
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans

Sunday, 11/15
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants
Jacksonville Jaguars at Green Bay Packers
Washington NAMECHANGE at Detroit Lions
Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers
Los Angeles Chargers at Miami Dolphins
Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders
Buffalo Bills at Arizona Cardinals
San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers

Sunday Night Football
Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots

Monday Night Football, 11/16
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears

Should have some interesting games this week, but first some picks. I like the Packers and Lions at home against bad teams, and after seeing what New Orleans did against and in TB last week, I think they should be able to handle the 9ers at home. Last pick is a bit risky, but the Ravens knocked off the Patriots 37-20 last year, when the Pats were a much better team. Maybe it does end up being close, but John Harbaugh should be able to handle it.

Colts/Titans is important. We had an awful, awful game last week, so now we need to get it together against a solid division rival. Not looking forward to it, but it should be on the radar. In Miami, we have a pair of 2020 first rounders going head to head. Dolphins should be good in this one, considering how good they've been, but the Chargers aren't 2-6 bad, so don't be surprised if the Bolts lose in the final seconds again. In Arizona, we've got a pair of up an coming teams. Buffalo absolutely wrecked Seattle's D last week in that 44-34 loss, but Arizona actually seem to have a plan on defense, so I expect this game to be closer. In LA, we have another important division game where the Rams have a shot at taking control of the NFC West, and it could be another shootout. Finally, The Bengals are in Pittsburgh. Normally this would be an easy pick for the Steelers against a bad to mediocre team, but I also expected them to blow out the Cowboys, who have been completely decimated at QB It would be a helluva story if Burrow hands Pittsburgh their first loss of 2020.

Week 10 - Results

Thursday Night Football, 11/12
Indianapolis Colts 34 at Tennessee Titans 17

Sunday, 11/15
Philadelphia Eagles 17 at New York Giants 27
Jacksonville Jaguars 20 at Green Bay Packers 24
Washington NAMECHANGE 27 at Detroit Lions 30
Houston Texans 7 at Cleveland Browns 10
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 46 at Carolina Panthers 23
Los Angeles Chargers 21 at Miami Dolphins 29
Denver Broncos 12 at Las Vegas Raiders 37
Buffalo Bills 30 at Arizona Cardinals 32
San Francisco 49ers 13 at New Orleans Saints 27
Seattle Seahawks 16 at Los Angeles Rams 23
Cincinnati Bengals 10 at Pittsburgh Steelers 36

Sunday Night Football
Baltimore Ravens 17 at New England Patriots 23

Monday Night Football, 11/16
Minnesota Vikings 19 at Chicago Bears 13

I don't know if I ever have been or will be as frustrated after a win as I was on Thursday. Sure, short week for the Titans, but otherwise the Colts put on full display some of the strongest parts of the team. Good defensive showing and a Special Teams TD to firmly take control of the division... but I remember the losses we've had, and I still feel like Rivers is under-performing. If he would just trust his coaches, I think our offense would at least be serviceable. Unfortunately, I still think it's a liability against better defenses.

WRT the Cardinals' win, I refer you to this.

Man the injury bug is hitting Seattle hard. They were looking so good earlier in the season.

(Yes, I know it's late.)

Week 11

Thursday Night Football, 11/19
Arizona Cardinals 21 at Seattle Seahawks 28

Sunday, 11/22
Cincinnati Bengals at Washington No-Namers
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints
Pittsburgh Steelers at Jacksonville Jaguars
New England Patriots at Houston Texans
Philadelphia Eagles at Cleveland Browns
Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers
Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens
New York Jets at Los Angeles Chargers
Miami Dolphins at Denver Broncos
Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings
Green Bay Packers at Indianapolis Colts

Sunday Night Football
Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders

Monday Night Football, 11/23
Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I feel like I'm taking some traps this week. First off we have Baltimore, who made everyone question Jackson's MVP status lat time they met. However, I think the Ravens clean themselves up a bit and come out on top. The Chargers should beat the New York Mess, but I recognize how poetic it would be for Gase to get his only win of 2020 against them. My only reservation on Miami is the weather in Denver, but the team just seems well coached enough to handle it. The big trap in my mind, though, is the Steelers. I picked them to WRECK Dallas (with a 3rd string QB) in Week 9, and they made it a close one. I just have a feeling that they have an embarrassing loss coming at some point this season or postseason.

Besides some traps, I am also taking some competitive games, starting with my Colts--specifically the defense--against the Packers in Indy. I also like the Chiefs for a divisional win. Gruden and his Raiders did pull the upset earlier this year--for KC's only loss so far--but this is Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes coming out of a bye week, and a win in Vegas would go a long way to making the Chiefs AFC West Champions for the 5th year running.

The only other interesting game for me this week is Falcons/Saints. This would be a New Orleans pick from me if Brees' chest wasn't caved in. We're about to see if Payton's coaching was responsible for Teddy Bridgewater's 5-0 record last year. Winston is a stronger passer, but there's a reason he got shipped out of Tampa. The only thing Atlanta can really accomplish this year is playing spoiler in their final 7 games, so this game is worth watching.

Nice win by a severely beat up Seahawks.

Kyler Murray was clearly hurting. He's an immensely talented quarterback, but that shoulder injury was bugging him. He's going to make some noise in coming years.

Russel Wilson, on the other hand, delivered a typically Russel Wilson performance. How does he continue to be under-rated? He doesn't have the highest QBR, but he's a complete package of on-field leadership and can-do.

Hill gets start over Winston.

Huh...well that only slightly affects my assessment of Saints/Falcons, but I was not expecting Hill to be the starter.

Week 11 - Results

Thursday Night Football, 11/19
Arizona Cardinals 21 at Seattle Seahawks 28

Sunday, 11/22
Cincinnati Bengals 7 at Washington No-Namers 20
Atlanta Falcons 9 at New Orleans Saints 24
Pittsburgh Steelers 27 at Jacksonville Jaguars 3
New England Patriots 20 at Houston Texans 27
Philadelphia Eagles 17 at Cleveland Browns 22
Detroit Lions 0 at Carolina Panthers 20
Tennessee Titans 30 at Baltimore Ravens 24
New York Jets 28 at Los Angeles Chargers 34
Miami Dolphins 13 at Denver Broncos 20
Dallas Cowboys 31 at Minnesota Vikings 28
Green Bay Packers 31 at Indianapolis Colts 33

Sunday Night Football
Kansas City Chiefs 35 at Las Vegas Raiders 31

Monday Night Football, 11/23
Los Angeles Rams 27 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24

I definitely took a couple traps this week. Oh well.

That Colts win was the epitome of how I feel about this team. They are SO GOOD in so many aspects of the game, then they get a dozen offensive holding penalties to send the game into overtime

Happy Thanksgiving, Everyone

Week 12

Thanksgiving Day, 11/26
Houston Texans at Detroit Lions
Maet Llabtoof Notgnihsaw at Dallas Cowboys
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers

Sunday, 11/29
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets
Arizona Cardinals at New England Patriots
Carolina Panthers at Minnesota Vikings
Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts
New York Giants at Cincinnati Bengals
Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills
Las Vegas Raiders at Atlanta Falcons
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams
New Orleans Saints at Denver Broncos
Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (MOVED)

Sunday Night Football
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers

Monday Night Football, 11/30
Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles

Going with some bounce-back wins this week. I think the Dolphins take out their frustration on their former head coach (again), the Cardinals fly over the Pats in New England, and the Packers use a prime time game to take control of the NFC North. I'm also taking my Colts in a need-to-win game over the Titans in Indy, and the very good Chiefs over overrated Bucs. Besides the Colts, this is probably my most dangerous pick of the week, but it's the Chiefs. They've been rock solid for 3 years now. I also feel ashamed to pick the Giants over the Bengals, but Cincinnati were struggling before losing the #1 pick for the season (possibly more). I expect the Giants to get a feel good win here before losing the next four straight (@SEA, ARI, CLE, @BAL).

Okay, after consideration, I'm also going to take the Seahawks on MNF. I will absolutely take Wilson over Wentz in a shootout situation, and I doubt either team presents a strong defense.

Thanksgiving gives us an odd bunch of games to watch. First, we'll see two bad teams bungling about in Detroit. Just kick back and enjoy the mess, I guess. The second features worse teams, but the game is...actually important... Whoever wins will get to lead the NFC East (with a whopping 4 wins), even if it's only for a few days. Finishing up the day we have Baltimore and Pittsburgh, which actually should could be pretty good. It's another divisional matchup, but with two teams that actually deserve to be in the playoffs.

If you need games to watch on Sunday, I think Chargers/Bills will be solid, and Saints/Broncos has potential, too. I don't know what the weather is looking like in Denver that day, but the Saints will be interesting to watch for a few weeks while they figure out the QB situation. Bears/Packers should also be a good game, seeing as it's the oldest NFL rivalry in prime time. If you want to join me in a stressful watch, tun into Titans/Colts. Both teams are 7-3 going in, so the winner takes the lead in the AFC South. The Colts can move ahead with a tiebreaker, or the Titans can split the series before heading down the final stretch. I picked the Colts to win, but that was 50% based on the previous meeting and 50% reckless optimism. I might have to lock up the bourbon before the game starts.

EDIT: Positive COVID tests has resulted in the Baltimore/Pittsburgh game being postponed to Sunday afternoon.

Two bits of news.

1. The Steelers/Ravens game was further postponed to Tuesday, at least for now. Any more delays and the league may consider adding a week to the season.

2. After a fresh Thanksgiving embarrassment, The Lions have finally seen enough from Matt Patricia. He exits with a 13-29-1 record (.314). For reference, predecessor Jim Caldwell ended his tenure with a 36-28 record (.563), which included 3 out of 4 winning seasons and two playoff appearances. Patricia got fired before completing his third season, and has zero playoff appearances as HC.

Week 12 - Results

Thanksgiving Day, 11/26
Houston Texans 41 at Detroit Lions 25
Maet Llabtoof Notgnihsaw 41 at Dallas Cowboys 16

Sunday, 11/29
Miami Dolphins 20 at New York Jets 3
Arizona Cardinals 17 at New England Patriots 20
Carolina Panthers 27 at Minnesota Vikings 28
Cleveland Browns 27 at Jacksonville Jaguars 25
Tennessee Titans 45 at Indianapolis Colts 26
New York Giants 19 at Cincinnati Bengals 17
Los Angeles Chargers 17 at Buffalo Bills 27
Las Vegas Raiders 6 at Atlanta Falcons 43
San Francisco 49ers 23 at Los Angeles Rams 20
New Orleans Saints 31 at Denver Broncos 3
Kansas City Chiefs 27 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24



Sunday Night Football
Chicago Bears 25 at Green Bay Packers 41

Monday Night Football, 11/30
Seattle Seahawks 23 at Philadelphia Eagles 17

Wednesday, 12/1
Baltimore Ravens 14 at Pittsburgh Steelers 19