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End User
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Re: Why I'm Suspect of RAM Prices

Sat Jan 13, 2018 5:02 pm

CScottG wrote:
Captain Ned wrote:
Have fun digging out the proof..



-me personally? Nope. :P

It's (IMO) more than reasonable supposition. Like it is with OPEC and gas prices. :wink:

Proof please.
 
Glorious
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Re: Why I'm Suspect of RAM Prices

Sat Jan 13, 2018 5:22 pm

CScottG wrote:
It's (IMO) more than reasonable supposition. Like it is with OPEC and gas prices.


Uh... that's really just not the same thing, sorry. OPEC has public agreements, and the C in it stands for Country, not company. Sovereign nations can do what they want, and so forth: no need to hide or pretend.
 
CScottG
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Re: Why I'm Suspect of RAM Prices

Sat Jan 13, 2018 7:41 pm

End User wrote:
Proof please.



Find it yourself. :wink:
 
End User
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Re: Why I'm Suspect of RAM Prices

Sat Jan 13, 2018 8:15 pm

CScottG wrote:
End User wrote:
Proof please.



Find it yourself. :wink:

No. You outlined something you have yet to backup.
 
freebird
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Re: Why I'm Suspect of RAM Prices

Sat Jan 13, 2018 8:28 pm

End User wrote:
I paid $500 for 4GB of memory back in the day. Something similar to:

2006 (year): 2x 1GB DIMM DDR-500 PC4000 @ $229.81 OCZ Gold

Memory Prices (1957-2017)


Yeah and I paid approx. $400 for 16MB of memory in my 486 build if I remember correctly & $450 for a 540MB Connor HD.

Prices are based on Supply, Demand & BOM...
 
End User
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Re: Why I'm Suspect of RAM Prices

Sat Jan 13, 2018 8:31 pm

freebird wrote:
End User wrote:
I paid $500 for 4GB of memory back in the day. Something similar to:

2006 (year): 2x 1GB DIMM DDR-500 PC4000 @ $229.81 OCZ Gold

Memory Prices (1957-2017)


Yeah and I paid approx. $400 for 16MB of memory in my 486 build if I remember correctly & $450 for a 540MB Connor HD.

Prices are based on Supply, Demand & BOM...

And complaining about it is a complete waste of time.
 
JustAnEngineer
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Re: Why I'm Suspect of RAM Prices

Sat Jan 13, 2018 8:35 pm

I paid $400+tax for 2 MiB of memory in 1987. Top that: http://amiga.resource.cx/exp/micron


There's definitely some price gouging going on.
DDR4 prices have QUADRUPLED since June of 2016. :o That's why my new PC has half as much memory as the one that it replaced. :(
https://pcpartpicker.com/product/xxs8TW ... y_days=730
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CScottG
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Re: Why I'm Suspect of RAM Prices

Sun Jan 14, 2018 12:23 am

End User wrote:
CScottG wrote:
End User wrote:
Proof please.



Find it yourself. :wink:


No. You outlined something you have yet to backup.



I don't need to "back it up" - it was supposition (..the historical and current pricing is of course fact).

(edited for kindness.)
Last edited by CScottG on Sun Jan 14, 2018 12:38 am, edited 2 times in total.
 
CScottG
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Re: Why I'm Suspect of RAM Prices

Sun Jan 14, 2018 12:36 am

Glorious wrote:
CScottG wrote:
It's (IMO) more than reasonable supposition. Like it is with OPEC and gas prices.


Uh... that's really just not the same thing, sorry. OPEC has public agreements, and the C in it stands for Country, not company. Sovereign nations can do what they want, and so forth: no need to hide or pretend.


It's not exactly the same thing, I didn't infer that it was.

-rather it's a reasonable supposition that OPEC manipulates gas prices. Just as it is a reasonable supposition that at the very least the top 3 manufacturers of DRAM collude to manipulate memory prices.

Of course OPEC doesn't set gas prices, they manipulate crude oil prices - mostly through oil production. This most certainly has an effect on gas prices (..and not only that, but several Corporate holdings are majority owned by those seated at the table during an OPEC meeting.) A fair bit of US refinery production is owned by Companies owned by OPEC *member's - in whole or in part.

*of course "members" isn't simply a "Country" but rather dominate persons within that Country's Government - that hold dominate stakes within those Corporations.


Collude to limit supply - so that prices are substantially elevated. Sounds familiar to OPEC's maneuvering, yes?

"They have opted to slow down their capacity expansions and technology migrations so that they can keep next year’s prices at the same high level as during this year’s second half. Doing so will also help them to sustain a strong profit margin."

http://press.trendforce.com/press/20170920-2972.html
 
synthtel2
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Re: Why I'm Suspect of RAM Prices

Sun Jan 14, 2018 2:30 am

Some random two-year price histories:

https://pcpartpicker.com/product/jjZ2FT/corsair-vengeance-lpx-16gb-2-x-8gb-ddr4-3200-memory-cmk16gx4m2b3200c16w?history_days=730
https://pcpartpicker.com/product/cWH48d/gskill-trident-z-16gb-2-x-8gb-ddr4-3200-memory-f4-3200c16d-16gtzsw?history_days=730
https://pcpartpicker.com/product/7NPzK8/gskill-memory-f42133c15d16grs?history_days=730
https://pcpartpicker.com/product/jzfmP6/kingston-memory-hx421c14fb2k216?history_days=730

Prices are over double what they were in mid-2016, and it's been a pretty gradual upward slope. All I've heard from RAM manufacturers to explain this is "demand, demand, demand", usually related to phones and tablets. Phones and tablets, while they're very high volume, are not even now using huge amounts of RAM per-unit, and it should have come as a surprise to no one that they would ship with substantially more RAM per-unit in the present day than a year and a half ago. I don't buy that they can single-handedly throw off everyone's predictions for demand on a scale of years (causing a price spike on the order of months seems entirely reasonable, but that isn't what's happening).

Said increases in demand being predictable, a properly functioning market should have built out more supply to match. Legitimate reasons not to would include not having capital to due to slim margins (a valid excuse around 2013) and/or not wanting to risk it in case of demand not increasing as much as planned. In the absence of any huge increase of the cost of doing business, they're rolling in money right now and the first definitely doesn't apply, and I don't buy for a second that all three manufacturers are so bad at predicting demand as to cause this.

RAM is not the most inelastic market out there. If RAM were currently at mid-2016 prices, how many PCs do you think would still get configured with 8GB or less? We've got a fair number of examples of the RAM market's elasticity right here; to name two, RAM prices are making DDR4 platforms a whole lot less attractive to JBI, and my brother is still running 8GB due to this in a gaming machine that really ought to be 16GB in a sane world.

If RAM manufacturers really were looking at some huge increase in their cost of doing business, they'd be telling us about it. If all they can do when called out on a price slope of that time scale and magnitude is complain about demand, they may as well scream "yeah, we're capping supply for fun and profit, what're you going to do about it?"
 
Glorious
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Re: Why I'm Suspect of RAM Prices

Sun Jan 14, 2018 8:09 am

CScottG wrote:
rather it's a reasonable supposition that OPEC manipulates gas prices. Just as it is a reasonable supposition that at the very least the top 3 manufacturers of DRAM collude to manipulate memory prices.


Stop.

Just stop.

It's not a "supposition" that OPEC does it. *THEY HAVE PRESS RELEASES ABOUT THEIR PRODUCTION AGREEMENTS* It is a fact that they do it, not an opinion or a belief. Doing it is actually the only reason OPEC exists.

So, while I agree there is something fishy going on in regards in RAM (and have said so for months when this comes up), making this comparison is simply ridiculous.

If it is happening, which I also believe it is, is nothing like OPEC: they don't call in the Press and announce that they are about to do something contrary to US law (PEOPLE GO TO PRISON FOR THIS) and the probably the laws of their various countries.

I mean, are you serious?
 
just brew it!
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Re: Why I'm Suspect of RAM Prices

Sun Jan 14, 2018 9:12 am

Or, to put it simply: One is explicitly and formally a cartel. The other one is a probable cartel, based on past history.
Nostalgia isn't what it used to be.
 
CScottG
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Re: Why I'm Suspect of RAM Prices

Sun Jan 14, 2018 5:31 pm

just brew it! wrote:
Or, to put it simply: One is explicitly and formally a cartel. The other one is a probable cartel, based on past history.



Not exactly "nothing like" each other.

Their (DRAM manufacturers) public operation isn't quite the same (..though through the DRAMeXchange they are't that far removed from stating outright that they are price-fixing by US Fed. standards).

Again, that link I provided certainly suggests cartel behavior: it's not just one manufacturer behaving in this manner - its the top 3 DRAM manufacturers that hold more than a majority of DRAM production world-wide, and they are all stating and doing pretty much the same thing with the same objective of:

"..keep next year’s prices at the same high level as during this year’s second half."
 
CScottG
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Re: Why I'm Suspect of RAM Prices

Sun Jan 14, 2018 5:48 pm

Glorious wrote:

Stop.



For you, sure. :wink:

(..because you consistently read my posts in a manner that I don't intend, expand arguments pointlessly with straw-man tactics, and just generally behave as an (..donkey) by literally trying to command me to do something (..particularly repugnant behavior you've exhibited before).)


Please don't respond to *any* of my posts in the future, trying to converse with you is just asking for abuse. IF you can manage this small request, then I'll not reply to any of your posts.
 
NovusBogus
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Re: Why I'm Suspect of RAM Prices

Mon Jan 15, 2018 12:02 am

freebird wrote:
Prices are based on Supply, Demand & BOM...

This seems to be the primary driver. Chip production rates have been relatively stable for a while, be it simple erroneous forecasting or some sinister conspiracy to limit production, but demand is increasing from a mix of smartphones, Sandy/Ivy system retirement, crypto mining, etc. Blaming it all on the smartphones is definitely a BS argument, but that by itself proves little beyond poor market awareness on the part of manufacturers. Perhaps some damning internal communications will get leaked that show actual agreements between actual parties with actual rate/price/etc. stipulations, but in the absence of that I can't see this as much beyond a bad situation brought about by a rather stagnant industry without much competition or innovation.
 
Kougar
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Re: Why I'm Suspect of RAM Prices

Mon Jan 15, 2018 12:24 pm

Relevant article, plenty of DRAM industry stats https://www.reuters.com/article/us-sams ... SKBN1F406U
 
Vhalidictes
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Re: Why I'm Suspect of RAM Prices

Mon Jan 15, 2018 12:53 pm

just brew it! wrote:
RAM prices are part of the reason I'm still running an increasingly long in the tooth AMD FX system. Moving to anything more modern would mean all new RAM since I can't re-use the DDR3 I've got on hand.


You might be able to set up a Skylake system with DDR3, it wouldn't be too out of date even now.
 
Welch
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Re: Why I'm Suspect of RAM Prices

Mon Jan 15, 2018 3:52 pm

Vhalidictes wrote:
just brew it! wrote:
RAM prices are part of the reason I'm still running an increasingly long in the tooth AMD FX system. Moving to anything more modern would mean all new RAM since I can't re-use the DDR3 I've got on hand.


You might be able to set up a Skylake system with DDR3, it wouldn't be too out of date even now.


Unfortunately if you look, a lot of DDR prices are insane too. Probably due to DDR4 process pushing people to older system and then of course a waning DDR3 supply.
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HERETIC
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Re: Why I'm Suspect of RAM Prices

Mon Jan 15, 2018 10:10 pm

NovusBogus wrote:
freebird wrote:
Prices are based on Supply, Demand & BOM...

This seems to be the primary driver. Chip production rates have been relatively stable for a while, be it simple erroneous forecasting or some sinister conspiracy to limit production, but demand is increasing from a mix of smartphones, Sandy/Ivy system retirement, crypto mining, etc. Blaming it all on the smartphones is definitely a BS argument, but that by itself proves little beyond poor market awareness on the part of manufacturers. Perhaps some damning internal communications will get leaked that show actual agreements between actual parties with actual rate/price/etc. stipulations, but in the absence of that I can't see this as much beyond a bad situation brought about by a rather stagnant industry without much competition or innovation.


Yup-there's so much little things we don't notice as well-just read"39 million Americans reportedly own a voice-activated smart speaker"
Something like that and in car entertainment,and control.Through not a huge amount of memory-enough to tip the balance.
You'd be surprised how much junk is out there that has memory in it (apple watch anyone)
 
DancinJack
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Re: Why I'm Suspect of RAM Prices

Mon Jan 15, 2018 10:35 pm

Welch wrote:
Vhalidictes wrote:
just brew it! wrote:
RAM prices are part of the reason I'm still running an increasingly long in the tooth AMD FX system. Moving to anything more modern would mean all new RAM since I can't re-use the DDR3 I've got on hand.


You might be able to set up a Skylake system with DDR3, it wouldn't be too out of date even now.


Unfortunately if you look, a lot of DDR prices are insane too. Probably due to DDR4 process pushing people to older system and then of course a waning DDR3 supply.


Yeah, that's why he was suggesting using the left over DDR3 that he has on hand. You even quoted it. :)
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