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Welch
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Why I'm Suspect of RAM Prices

Fri Jan 12, 2018 8:05 pm

Lets break this down for a minute....

RAM prices were at historical lows while AMD was out of the PC fight pretty much. It wasn't that long ago you could get 8GB of DDR3 for sub $30 on sale. I know because I built a metric ton of systems during this time. Now that AMD is back in the game and PC shipments are actually ramping up according to numbers, the RAM manufacturers are citing a previously linear smartphone market as the cause of DDR4 (and..... DDR3?) price hikes?

Something is most certainly rotten in the state of Denmark China...... S Korea, Merca

This is one of those times where I'd love to see some more competition kick in and undercut the hell out of them. I guess the FTC and other foreign "protection" agencies are asleep at the wheel on this one.
Last edited by Welch on Sat Jan 13, 2018 1:45 am, edited 3 times in total.
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strangerguy
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Re: Why I'm Suspect of RAM Prices

Fri Jan 12, 2018 9:17 pm

All the DRAM/NAND production is owned by South Korea/U.S/Japan companies, the only regulatory agency who gives a damn about the price fixing so far is from China, and the only nation who is hellbent in ramping up homegrown DRAM/NAND production, gasp, is also China.

But like you say, of course it's all the damn communists fault. We need to blame these evil people for bringing us things like cheap LCD panels and Li-ion batteries.
Last edited by strangerguy on Fri Jan 12, 2018 9:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Welch
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Re: Why I'm Suspect of RAM Prices

Fri Jan 12, 2018 9:19 pm

strangerguy wrote:
All the DRAM/NAND production is owned by South Korea/U.S/Japan companies, the only regulatory agency who gives a damn about the price fixing so far is from China, and the only one who is hellbent in ramping up homegrown DRAM/NAND production, gasp, is also China

But like you say, of course it's all the damn communists fault.


Fair enough :P I over generalized with that comment and should have realized that Samsung is S Korean.

The original point of it all being a crock and that RAM prices are BS just the same way that hard drive prices sky rocketed after almost none of the manufacturing plants were "hit" by Fukishima.... Floods in Thailand.
Last edited by Welch on Sat Jan 13, 2018 1:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Why I'm Suspect of RAM Prices

Fri Jan 12, 2018 9:57 pm

I paid $500 for 4GB of memory back in the day. Something similar to:

2006 (year): 2x 1GB DIMM DDR-500 PC4000 @ $229.81 OCZ Gold

Memory Prices (1957-2017)
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Re: Why I'm Suspect of RAM Prices

Fri Jan 12, 2018 10:28 pm

missed some of the thread. sorry
 
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Re: Why I'm Suspect of RAM Prices

Sat Jan 13, 2018 12:00 am

Welch wrote:
It wasn't that long ago you could get 8GB of DDR3 for sub $30 on sale.

Something is most certainly rotten in the state of Denmark China.

This is one of those times where I'd love to see some more competition kick in and undercut the hell out of them. I guess the FTC and other foreign "protection" agencies are asleep at the wheel on this one.


Yup, and selling that ram at $30 is part of the problem we have today.A few years ago we had manufacturers that made only ram-That price was not profitable-they
either went to the wall or were taken over.The big boys that made flash as well could subsidize their ram lines while this was happening.
End result-only three ram manufacturers left.
Next-Flash demand was increasing,so they cleverly moved some of their ram production lines over to flash to meet demand.
Had they just cut ram production agencies might have started looking at them...............

Don't know why you pick China-thro a lot is manufactured there, the three ram makers are-
Samsung-Korea
Hynix-Korea
Micron-Murica
 
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Re: Why I'm Suspect of RAM Prices

Sat Jan 13, 2018 1:11 am

Welch wrote:
hard drive prices sky rocketed after almost none of the manufacturing plants were "hit" by Fukishima.

Did you mean the Thailand floods?
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Re: Why I'm Suspect of RAM Prices

Sat Jan 13, 2018 1:50 am

Flying Fox wrote:
Welch wrote:
hard drive prices sky rocketed after almost none of the manufacturing plants were "hit" by Fukishima.

Did you mean the Thailand floods?


Yuup. Hell if I can recall which natural disaster did what from day to day anymore. It seems like every time I turn around its some big storm or something is going on, they are starting to blur together in my memory. :o

Corrected previous posts with strikethrough, left original for hilarity and a display of my stupidity.
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Re: Why I'm Suspect of RAM Prices

Sat Jan 13, 2018 2:59 am

Samsung et al are price fixing now as it's the last chance they will be able to get away with it. Once China opens their product dumping floodgates for NAND like they did on li-ion batteries etc prices are going to stay low forever.
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Re: Why I'm Suspect of RAM Prices

Sat Jan 13, 2018 7:32 am

Welch wrote:
The original point of it all being a crock and that RAM prices are BS just the same way that hard drive prices sky rocketed after almost none of the manufacturing plants were "hit" by Fukishima.... Floods in Thailand.

To be fair here, when you're dealing with a high-volume commodity even a small fluctuation in supply can cause massive price swings. Look at the price of things like gasoline and eggs in the US, for example. (Well in the lower 48, anyway... maybe up in Alaska they're just always expensive.)

That said, I agree with you that HDD prices seemed to stay artificially high after the factories came back online.
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Re: Why I'm Suspect of RAM Prices

Sat Jan 13, 2018 7:43 am

just brew it! wrote:

That said, I agree with you that HDD prices seemed to stay artificially high after the factories came back online.


Probably took a little while to re-coup their losses from the floods.
Then you have Seagate buying Samsung HD division and WD buying Hitachi HD division.
More debt's for us(the customer) to pay off......................................
 
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Re: Why I'm Suspect of RAM Prices

Sat Jan 13, 2018 7:46 am

HERETIC wrote:
just brew it! wrote:

That said, I agree with you that HDD prices seemed to stay artificially high after the factories came back online.

Probably took a little while to re-coup their losses from the floods.
Then you have Seagate buying Samsung HD division and WD buying Hitachi HD division.
More debt's for us(the customer) to pay off......................................

And less competition.
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Re: Why I'm Suspect of RAM Prices

Sat Jan 13, 2018 10:46 am

End User wrote:

Interesting chart. For some reason, paying $120 for 16MB in the mid-90's stands out in my mind, which falls in line with sometime in late 1996 and sounds about right. Upon closer inspection, that was actually an unprecedented year --- from 01/96 to 03/97 prices dropped by a factor of TEN. :o Gotta wonder if it's what spurred the future price-fixing. Imagine having unsold inventory for any length of time in those 14 months.

Also worth noting, aside from small fluctuations (which could just be due to the particular choice of RAM), I only see a single instance where prices went up and remained there (06/88 to 07/89). It's actually significantly worse right now than the chart shows, because it switched back to DDR3 for some strange reason. I'm coming up with roughly 0.0105 - 0.011 for DDR4 at common densities, which is early 2011 levels, and over triple the price from 18 months ago.
 
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Re: Why I'm Suspect of RAM Prices

Sat Jan 13, 2018 10:53 am

The Egg wrote:
It's actually significantly worse right now than the chart shows

All I know is I paid roughly $500 CDN for 4GB of memory back in 2006. I just bought a 32GB memory kit for $575 CDN. The world is not ending due to the current state of memory prices.
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Re: Why I'm Suspect of RAM Prices

Sat Jan 13, 2018 11:03 am

just brew it! wrote:
To be fair here, when you're dealing with a high-volume commodity even a small fluctuation in supply can cause massive price swings. Look at the price of things like gasoline and eggs in the US, for example. (Well in the lower 48, anyway... maybe up in Alaska they're just always expensive.)

A bit off topic here. My understanding that for gasoline, the choke point is usually not the supply of crude but the handful of refineries concentrated near the Gulf of Mexico area? So a hurricane knocking out one or 2 of these, and we will have big supply fluctuations?
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Re: Why I'm Suspect of RAM Prices

Sat Jan 13, 2018 11:08 am

End User wrote:
The Egg wrote:
It's actually significantly worse right now than the chart shows

All I know is I paid roughly $500 CDN for 4GB of memory back in 2006. I just bought a 32GB memory kit for $575 CDN. The world is not ending due to the current state of memory prices.

Gotcha. The world is not ending for you, End User, who has $575 to blow on ram, and an installed base of 1 machine.

You do realize there are other people in the world, right?
 
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Re: Why I'm Suspect of RAM Prices

Sat Jan 13, 2018 11:10 am

Flying Fox wrote:
just brew it! wrote:
To be fair here, when you're dealing with a high-volume commodity even a small fluctuation in supply can cause massive price swings. Look at the price of things like gasoline and eggs in the US, for example. (Well in the lower 48, anyway... maybe up in Alaska they're just always expensive.)

A bit off topic here. My understanding that for gasoline, the choke point is usually not the supply of crude but the handful of refineries concentrated near the Gulf of Mexico area? So a hurricane knocking out one or 2 of these, and we will have big supply fluctuations?

Hurricanes and switching over to summer/winter blends are something I hear about regarding restraints on supply due to the state of refineries.

If the gulf coast refineries shut down then southern air travel will soon follow as airlines don't store much fuel on site.
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Re: Why I'm Suspect of RAM Prices

Sat Jan 13, 2018 11:14 am

The Egg wrote:
an installed base of 1 machine.

3

Are you talking businesses or individuals.

The Egg wrote:
You do realize there are other people in the world, right?

I'm familiar with what I have seen. That is what I posted.
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Re: Why I'm Suspect of RAM Prices

Sat Jan 13, 2018 11:16 am

The Egg wrote:
who has $575 to blow on ram

Double that. I bought two kits.

My builds have a lifespan of roughly 5 years. The only thing I'll upgrade after this will be the GPUs.
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Re: Why I'm Suspect of RAM Prices

Sat Jan 13, 2018 11:33 am

RAM prices are part of the reason I'm still running an increasingly long in the tooth AMD FX system. Moving to anything more modern would mean all new RAM since I can't re-use the DDR3 I've got on hand.
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Re: Why I'm Suspect of RAM Prices

Sat Jan 13, 2018 3:49 pm

just brew it! wrote:
RAM prices are part of the reason I'm still running an increasingly long in the tooth AMD FX system. Moving to anything more modern would mean all new RAM since I can't re-use the DDR3 I've got on hand.


Same. I was sorely tempted to build a rig around the cheap 7920X chips Fry's had for BF, but 64GB of DDR4 would run $600. 32GB is just not enough for a system with that many cores.

DDR5 is expected to go into production next year, so I'd think Intel and AMD will jump on it by 2020 or 2021 at the latest. Thinking I can get three more years from my current rig, then build a new rig from DDR5 skipping the DDR4 generation entirely. Price/GB on it should be better too for a multitude of reasons.
 
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Re: Why I'm Suspect of RAM Prices

Sat Jan 13, 2018 3:51 pm

Forget about memory prices. The discrete GPU space is nuts right now:

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=120499
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Re: Why I'm Suspect of RAM Prices

Sat Jan 13, 2018 4:07 pm

mid - 2016 ECC Unbuffered DDR4 (skylake server build) 16 GB sticks could be purchased for as low as about $80. A few months later it started climbing in price, with a few troubles (factory-wise) here and there, and predictably the price was increasing. I didn't know about those problems at that time and thought: well - I can always purchase it later at about the same price. :oops:

..a few months later and I was struggling to find that memory for under $100 (around Black Friday 2016), but with holiday rebates managed to "secure" 4 sticks (64 GB max memory for i3 Skylake) for a bit under $400 total. I honestly thought I was "buying high" with the production problems at that time. :o

Now I can't find it for less than about $180 (per 16 GB stick), and it has nothing to do with *real* manufacturing problems. :evil:
 
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Re: Why I'm Suspect of RAM Prices

Sat Jan 13, 2018 4:10 pm

CScottG wrote:
Now I can't find it for less than about $180 (per 16 GB stick), and it has nothing to do with *real* manufacturing problems. :evil:

And any mfg who sold for less than the market price (yet still made a profit on mfg costs) would instantly be sued by its stockholders for failing to maximize shareholder value.
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Re: Why I'm Suspect of RAM Prices

Sat Jan 13, 2018 4:13 pm

Captain Ned wrote:
CScottG wrote:
Now I can't find it for less than about $180 (per 16 GB stick), and it has nothing to do with *real* manufacturing problems. :evil:

And any mfg who sold for less than the market price (yet still made a profit on mfg costs) would instantly be sued by its stockholders for failing to maximize shareholder value.



Yes, but the price is artificially being inflated through collusion - ie. PRICE FIXING. The "market" price then is FAKE (..just like it is for Diamonds and Inkjet Ink).
 
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Re: Why I'm Suspect of RAM Prices

Sat Jan 13, 2018 4:20 pm

CScottG wrote:
Yes, but the price is artificially being inflated through collusion - ie. PRICE FIXING. The "market" price then is FAKE (..just like it is for Diamonds and Inkjet Ink).

Have fun digging out the proof. This is far from the first go-round for the RAM makers.
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Re: Why I'm Suspect of RAM Prices

Sat Jan 13, 2018 4:34 pm

Kougar wrote:
Same. I was sorely tempted to build a rig around the cheap 7920X chips Fry's had for BF, but 64GB of DDR4 would run $600. 32GB is just not enough for a system with that many cores.

Core count and memory usage aren't necessarily correlated. Unless you're running a lot of VMs 32GB should still be enough.
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Re: Why I'm Suspect of RAM Prices

Sat Jan 13, 2018 4:38 pm

just brew it! wrote:
Core count and memory usage aren't necessarily correlated. Unless you're running a lot of VMs 32GB should still be enough.


And even then...

Really depends on how much and what kind of work being done, something I'm sure we're all aware of. If it ain't much, then, even a stack of Windows VMs (who would do that on purpose...) wouldn't eat up too much.

The AF taught us system administration with three Windows 2003 VMs running on an XP workstation with Phenom X3's with 2GB of RAM...
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Re: Why I'm Suspect of RAM Prices

Sat Jan 13, 2018 4:50 pm

Airmantharp wrote:
just brew it! wrote:
Core count and memory usage aren't necessarily correlated. Unless you're running a lot of VMs 32GB should still be enough.

And even then...

Really depends on how much and what kind of work being done, something I'm sure we're all aware of. If it ain't much, then, even a stack of Windows VMs (who would do that on purpose...) wouldn't eat up too much.

The AF taught us system administration with three Windows 2003 VMs running on an XP workstation with Phenom X3's with 2GB of RAM...

That was Windows 2003 though. Attempting something similar with a modern Windows release (or even modern Linux distros, unless you stick to one of the lightweight ones) would likely not go well.
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Re: Why I'm Suspect of RAM Prices

Sat Jan 13, 2018 4:51 pm

Captain Ned wrote:
Have fun digging out the proof..



-me personally? Nope. :P

It's (IMO) more than reasonable supposition. Like it is with OPEC and gas prices. :wink:

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