IDC: PC shipments will fall, rebound this year

Last November, we saw iSuppli revise its growth forecast to say PC shipments would only grow by 4.3% this year, down from the previously predicted 11.9%. As CNet News reports, rival market research firm IDC has now published a much more pessimistic forecast.

IDC’s number looks nearly the same… except for that little minus sign: the firm expects the PC market will actually shrink by 4.5% this year. Looking on the bright side, IDC believes most of the, er, shrinkage will happen during the first half of the year, and that shipments will see a “small, but positive growth in the fourth quarter.” (For the record, IDC worked out that the PC market grew by 3.8% in 2008, with the fourth quarter seeing a decline of 1.9%.)

The research firm sounds reasonably hopeful overall, saying the PC market won’t take too long to rebound because it’s “driven heavily by replacement cycles, and though companies and individuals may be holding back during this volatile period in the economy, computers don’t last forever.” IDC does however expect “consolidation” and plummeting average selling prices (thanks largely to low-cost netbooks and nettops).

Comments closed
    • xii
    • 11 years ago

    In other news, financial market analyst companies predict the weather for Q4 in new expensive rapport. Temperature 4% up due to late winter; storm kills 14 due to ADHD butterfly flapping wings more than it should. Buy insurance.

    • ludi
    • 11 years ago

    “Ball will bounce when dropped” -IDC

      • UberGerbil
      • 11 years ago

      But, since we don’t know where the floor is or the elasticity of the ball, we can’t really tell you when it will bounce or how high. That’s not going to stop us from giving you a guess, however.

        • [TR]
        • 11 years ago

        I’m not ready to drop my PC just to check if/how much it bounces back O_o
        But yeah, you’re right. We just can’t help making up numbers like this.
        I predict the PC market will fall and the we’ll witness that rebirth of the Abacus.

          • Wirko
          • 11 years ago

          Don’t drop your PC just yet. But do drop it in October. Not that it will bounce but if enough people follow your example, Q4 sales will.

    • MadManOriginal
    • 11 years ago

    I’d like to see a tag-team cage match between useless analysts. Thin out the heard a little and provide some entertainment at the same time.

    • UberGerbil
    • 11 years ago

    I realize “market intelligence” companies have to keep pumping out reports to justify their existence and to try to maintain their revenue. But given everything that’s happened (and happening) in the global economy, I think even they would be forced to concede, albeit privately, that the only truthful thing they can do is quote William Goldman: “Nobody knows anything.”

      • indeego
      • 11 years ago

      Tis the way I feel about Financial Services companies.

      “Did you have an inkling of the disaster that awaited us? No? then buh byeg{<.<}g" Wealth management indeed!

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