The semiconductor industry is on the path to recovery, but it may take another year or two before revenue reaches pre-recession levels. So says iSuppli, at least. The market research firm has published its latest report with growth forecasts for the next few quarters.
Compared to the fourth quarter of last year, iSuppli expects global semiconductor revenue to rise 10.6% this quarter, finally ending a streak of worrisome year-over-year drops—33.3% in the first quarter, 22.1% in the second, and 16% in the third. If that prediction comes to be, it will signal "the start of the industry recovery."
iSuppli expects revenue for the first half of 2010 to be "slightly down" compared to the first half of this year. However, things should pick up in the second half, leading to 13.8% overall growth for 2010. For a frame of reference, semiconductor revenue went down 5.4% in 2008, and it's expected to plummet 16.5% overall this year.
Looking further ahead, iSuppli predicts 2011 and later years will see "a return to single-digit percentage growth in the semiconductor industry as conditions stabilize." Semiconductor firms should start seeing the same kinds of sales as before the recession some time around 2011-2012, as well.