Report: Llano to remain in short supply ’til next year

Last week, AMD warned that manufacturing issues at GlobalFoundries had curbed supply of Llano processors, causing it to miss third-quarter revenue guidance. DigiTimes now reports that the situation may not improve until next year.

The site, which quotes "sources from motherboard players," notes that supply of Llano chips started falling short of demand in July. While AMD reportedly expected things to go back to normal in September, DigiTimes’ sources predict that the supply issues will persist "through the end of 2011." They go so far as to say supply of 32-nm APUs won’t recover until AMD rolls out its next-generation Trinity chips next year.

That’s a bit of a grim forecast, but then again, AMD doesn’t publicly point the finger at GlobalFoundries for missed targets every day. A quick look at Newegg also reveals that only dual- and triple-core Llano variants are in stock right now. The A6-3650 and A8-3850, which have four fully enabled cores, are both out of stock.

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    • sschaem
    • 8 years ago

    [url<]http://news.techeye.net/chips/amd-was-let-down-by-globalfoundries[/url<] Some new info on this subject, I think... "AMD is probably kicking itself for not hanging on to TSMC and ask it not to close its 32nm process node in 2009 to focus on 28nm high-k metal gate bulk fabrication" Did AMD make that decision based on GloFlo projection? if so, GF really dropped the ball on this one. And if the problem if with GF , and not how AMD is pushing the process beyond specification, I wonder if AMD was smart enough to have the contract include indemnification in case the contract cannot be filled? I'm sure Apple would sue the pants of any supplier for billion in damages if they fail to deliver on their contract... It seem AMD rushed to get Cray its order of Opteron, most likely because Cray had AMD by the balls if they didn't deliver. So why cant AMD protect itself ? I mean, you dont tell TSMC you kill your only backup plan and dont have some form of security GloFo can deliver or payup. GF is on the hook for most likely 500 million to 1 billion in damages from breaking their contract... But then if AMD sue for damages, it will only have TSMC left. Its not like Intel is going to open their fab to AMD. I'm starting to feel sorry for those guys... (AMD not GF) I mean if bulldozer was actually delayed because of GF, AMD actually executed as expected. Tragic

    • Chrispy_
    • 8 years ago

    All this AMD news and none of it is what people are waiting for:

    Bulldozer-based Opterons were supposed to be launched on Sept 26th. Have I missed a “Bulldozer launch delayed” aricle in the news, and if not, where are the reviews?

      • sschaem
      • 8 years ago

      On September 28th AMD issued what pretty much was a suicide note. (Check AMD web site to read it verbatim)

      They announced that 32nm yield is not allowing them to manufacture 32nm product in any satisfying volume.
      AMD said that as of September 28th no resolution is in sight, none of the problem have been fixed or have improved in ANY ways.

      So entering Q4 and AMD cant produce 32nm products… you do the math why no opteron showed up yet.

      Its also unclear if AMD will be able to ship any BD Opteron this year beside to low volume to special customers that have contracts
      Last thing AMD need is to be sued by Cray.

      Next phantom date is October 12

    • NeelyCam
    • 8 years ago

    My god, AMD stock is getting hammered again. -10% today, -30% in the past five days.

      • sschaem
      • 8 years ago

      Yep, at this rate AMD marketcap is going to fall below 3 billion tomorrow.

      AMD accumulated some horrific rumors in the past month,
      and the only official statement AMD made so far had nothing positive in it.
      It almost read like a suicide note.

      I’m really into this because I feel AMD is at a turning point and something really big is going to happen (well beside their value going to the crapper)

    • sschaem
    • 8 years ago

    I wonder if AMD could have scaled up Brazos and completely bypass llano?

    A 4 core, 320 shader Zacate seem totally possible on 40nm.

      • NeelyCam
      • 8 years ago

      Zacate wasn’t designed to run at high clocks, so it can’t handle the level of single-thread demand in this market space.

        • sschaem
        • 8 years ago

        Didn’t stop OEM from using the E-350 in laptops…

        I didn’t say its would be optimal. But at least AMD (TSMC) can manufacture those APU.
        So a quad core 1.65ghz E-850 might be a decent alternative to a 1.5ghz A8-3500m ??

          • NeelyCam
          • 8 years ago

          The big difference is turbo. 40nm Brazos doesn’t seem to have much clock headroom (probably because it’s a “synthesized core”). Meanwhile, A8-3500 base clock may be low to stay within the TDP, but can turbo way beyond that temporarily… right?

            • sschaem
            • 8 years ago

            From the benchmarks I seen, Brazos is close to an Athlon II clock for clock in real word apps.
            So for 4 thread this mythical E-850 would be close to llano A8-3500m CPU performance.
            For 1-2 thread, it would be much slower (but power consumption could be dramatically better).
            AMD could still have all those stickers “4core” “All day mobile computing” “Next generation Fusion technology”

            Zacate idle and power consumption should match or beat llano by a large margin.
            Cinebench show a 3.1ghz X2 255 to be twice as fast as a 1.6ghz e-350, but also consume 47W vs 9W.
            Idle was 7 and 3 watt respectively. So this give us pure task energy of 40W vs 6W.
            A Scaled up Zacate would have dominated the <$500 laptop market

            AMD should focus instead of spreading itself thin.

            • NeelyCam
            • 8 years ago

            Did you miss the part about the Turbo? Brazos doesn’t turbo much because it can’t.

            • sschaem
            • 8 years ago

            llano doesn’t turbo when 4 c0re are active… 4 llano core at 1.5ghz is not a large performance leap over 4 brazos core at 1.65ghz

            And I already state that for 1-2 thread llano would be faster.

            • NeelyCam
            • 8 years ago

            I was talking abouit single-thread; that’s why Zacate doesn’t make sense as a Llano competitor.

            So, do we agree or disagree? I don’t see where you said llano wins with 1-2 threads.

            Starting to sound like a pointless debate…

    • sschaem
    • 8 years ago

    Anyone remember this ? [url<]https://techreport.com/discussions.x/20836[/url<] "Report: Llano to ship in large numbers, boost AMD share" It almost seem like production was ok untill july, and GF/AMD changed something that disrupted llano production ? Like switch to bulldozer to meet Cray deadline ?

    • JMccovery
    • 8 years ago

    EDIT: Nevermind, they way they wrote it was a bit confusing…

      • Rza79
      • 8 years ago

      No the whole APU will be produced at GloFo and GPU’s will be produced at TSMC. DigiTimes maybe makes this report sound strange but it does so bc there was a slim chance that GloFo was also going to produce GPU’s at 28nm bulk.

    • chuckula
    • 8 years ago

    People are always complaining that Apple hasn’t used AMD APUs in its systems. Well, this is one major reason why Apple hasn’t done any deals for the APU. No matter how good it is, if you can’t deliver the right quantity of product on-time, you ain’t gonna win a contract from Apple. A lot of other OEMs aren’t quite as picky as Apple, but that doesn’t mean they are happy with the situation either.

      • sschaem
      • 8 years ago

      With Ivy Bridge Apple will have no more reason to use AMD products in laptops.
      And with ex ATI architect designing their next GPU soon Apple will be AMD free.

      OEM and possibly end users (server market G34) are probably livid about their investment and AMD not keeping their target.
      October, Q4 2011 and still no sign of Bulldozer (Server or desktop.. beside the handfull Cray received)

      Its just weird that AMD told everyone that llano was doing great mid july (7 month after initial production) and late september they now say its a total failure, and that they might actually scramble to get trinity to work because llano will never be able to be produced.

        • dpaus
        • 8 years ago

        [quote<]they {AMD} now say its a total failure, and... llano will never be able to be produced[/quote<] Well played, Naomi Price.

      • ronch
      • 8 years ago

      I was actually thinking along these lines lately. I know AMD must be courting Apple all the time, and I think it would be cool if AMD won some CPU sales to Apple, but if you stop and try to think about it for a minute, why would Apple use AMD when they (1) could get all their chips from Intel without fear of serious supply issues, (2) Intel lets them get into sexier form factors due to more competitive energy efficiency (either through their chips’ architecture or smaller process nodes) or special chip packaging, (3) no one gets fired for buying Intel, (4) they can be confident that Intel has the resources to keep advancing technology, (5) Intel simply has the fastest chips right now, (6) AMD is still widely perceived as the cheaper alternative, which could tarnish Apple’s image of prestige, and (7) Apple will not risk any of the aforementioned reasons just because AMD is cheaper, because it just isn’t worth it.

      When Llano came out it seemed like it could have a good shot to get into some Apple products, being AMD’s fastest, seriously energy efficient chip, but I suppose they had to hit a snag somehow.

        • sschaem
        • 8 years ago

        Apple still offer ATI GPU, but I have a feeling Apple was able to get a great deal where AMD as to pay Apple money.

        “Come on Dirk, its a great marketing value for AMD. Give us the chips and a few millions and we will tell people we use AMD in our products. this is worth 100s of million to you guys, you know Apple should get compensated doing this for AMD… sign here and here”

    • FakeAlGore
    • 8 years ago

    If Global Foundries is having this much trouble producing 32 nm chips, how well will they be able to produce 22 nm chips? Will they even make it to 16 nm?

      • OneArmedScissor
      • 8 years ago

      [url<]http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-KVdmpK1Q64U/TbHh8quslAI/AAAAAAAAB5o/_6Mf6-a7E-w/s1600/jump+to+conclusions+mat.jpg[/url<]

        • Johnny5
        • 8 years ago

        “loose(sic) one turn”

      • sschaem
      • 8 years ago

      Time will tell. But it seem GF might start to think of dropping AMD and instead focus on smaller 32nm chips.
      For 28nm, it doesn’t get easier… so its possible that 32nm is the end of the line for GoFlo ?!

        • khands
        • 8 years ago

        Unlikely, they’ve got a lot of buyers now and are backed monetarily by oil, they won’t be going anywhere soon. They just need to get their shit in line.

          • OneArmedScissor
          • 8 years ago

          Oil is going to run out in like 2060. Doom!

            • destroy.all.monsters
            • 8 years ago

            Hahaha. Thankfully I don’t expect to be alive by then. Fresh water supplies are supposed to be largely dried up or polluted (and those that aren’t are will probably be fouled and unusable thanks to fracking) long before then.

            No wonder there’s that may you live in interesting times curse.

            As we get to our 80s and 90s will we care about AMD and intel any more?

          • sschaem
          • 8 years ago

          The first llano was out of dresden in mid 2010 over 18month ago, time ran out a long time ago to line up the ducks.
          Remember AMD did public demo of llano over a year ago.

          Here is what AMD executive stated in April 2010:

          “We plan to commence volume production in the back half of this year. We do now have internal samples of both of our initial Fusion designs, we are learning quite a lot, and are quite happy with what we see, and we started sampling to select customers, one of those two designs,” said Dirk Meyer, chief executive officer and president of AMD

          After around 7month delay, AMD in July 2011 stated that llano was doing great and raised their outlook for the month of july to september based on llano production. You do the math…

      • ronch
      • 8 years ago

      Not necessarily. I think their 65nm sucked but their 45nm seems great.

      • NeelyCam
      • 8 years ago

      It could go either way.

      At 32nm, they introduced HK/MG for the first time, and they decided to implement it with gate first approach. They might be suffering from that decision.

      At 22nm, they will switch to gate last, which should improve yields (at higher cost). Some rumors on forums suggest that they might go FD-SOI at that point which could make things more difficult (new paradigm, difficult to implement) or easier (better channel control, less subthreshold leakage) compared to planar transistors.

      At 16nm they might switch to FinFETs, with a whole new set of issues… they might also stay with FD-SOI.

      Bottom line: each node is a different animal, and issues – although generally getting worse when following Moore’s “Law” – are different every time. Fail on one node doesn’t automatically mean fail on the next one.

        • FakeAlGore
        • 8 years ago

        Thank you for explaining your point instead of posting a stupid image and downvoting me.

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