Jon Peddie Research quantifies state of the PC graphics market

Jon Peddie Research has released its latest graphics Market Watch report, and the firms' conclusions match with what frustrated graphics card shoppers have seen over the last few months. The new report covers graphics card shipments in the fourth quarter of 2017, and as the company has typically found in final three months of any given year, shipments are down compared to the holiday shopping-fueled third quarter.

Overall graphics shipments dropped 1.5% compared to the previous quarter, with a 4.8% drop in total discrete graphics shipments compared to Q4 2016. Fans of the red team will doubtless delight in knowledge that AMD's graphics market share and overall shipments jumped by just over 8%, with a market share increase from 13% of all shipments in the third quarter to 14.1% in the fourth. Anandtech says that AMD's share of the discrete video card market jumped from 27.2% in Q3 2016 and 29.5% in Q3 2017 to 33.7% in the final three months of 2017. Nvidia captured the other 66.3% of discrete card sales in the same frame.

The graphics card selection at reddit user's nopethef*****out's local Fry's

Dips in shipments are normal in the fourth quarter, according to JPR's historical data. Peddie says that the number of graphics units shipped dropped by an average of 3.4% in the fourth quarter of the last ten years when compared to the typical third-quarter surge in demand. By this measure, 2017's finale was a strong one for graphics chip makers and their board manufacturing partners.

Year-to-year desktop graphics board shipments reportedly slipped by 2% in the quarter, with a stiffer 7% slide in notebooks graphics cards. Discrete cards sales jumped by almost 10% compared to Q4 2016. The site also says that demand for midrange and high-end cards has increased, while the entry-level portion of the discrete graphics market has stagnated.

Jon Peddie Research reports that over three million graphics cards worth $776 million were sold to cryptocurrency miners during Q4 2017. We're not sure how the researchers managed to separate mining purchasers from gamers, but we're not at all surprised by Peddie's conclusion that AMD was the main beneficiary of mining demand. Overall, JPR says 363 million "graphics units" shipped in 2017, a figure that almost certainly includes IGPs.

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    • BiffStroganoffsky
    • 2 years ago

    In the spirit of Compliment Day; ‘Nice rack…you have pictured there.’

      • Welch
      • 2 years ago

      That’s a terrible rack, all beaten up.

      • LoneWolf15
      • 2 years ago

      That’s a horrible rack, it isn’t 48U, has no PDUs or cooling fans, no cable management…

    • DavidC1
    • 2 years ago

    I can’t seem to reconcile the data in my head.

    JPR claims 363 million GPUs sold in 2017, which definitely includes iGPUs.

    Gartner says 61 million and 67 million for total PCs sold in Q2 and Q3 of 2017. If we take 65 million per Q as the average, we get 260 million. IDC claims 260 million for whole of 2017.

    So dGPUs sold 100 million in addition to separate PCs?

    Or am I wrong and are we back in 2010 when the PC market was bigger?

      • NoOne ButMe
      • 2 years ago

      JPR counts each iGPU and dGPU.

      So a hardcore gamer making an 8700k with two GTX 1080tis, would count as 3 GPUs.

      From the article, the attach rate for 4Q2017 was 134%, and 144% for 3Q2017. So 33/44%. Or maybe that’s only for desktops, JDR sometimes specifies and other times does not.

      Edit: it may be closer to 50% last quarter, they used down 10.6% I believe. I’m unsure if they mean percentage, or percentage points.

      • frenchy2k1
      • 2 years ago

      Attach rate is ~140%, meaning there is 1.4 GPU/PC sold, which is not surprising as most PCs with a discrete graphic card also include an integrated graphic (Intel High end and AMD Ryzen not included).

      1.40 x 260 ~ 364, so the count is correct.

        • DavidC1
        • 2 years ago

        You know that means 40% of the PCs are sold with discrete parts right? The number of PCs with multiple cards are small enough to bring it down to no more than 35%. Still sounds quite a lot.

        That means there are 90-100 million dGPUs sold.

        3 million mining GPUs seem comparatively tiny then.

          • NoOne ButMe
          • 2 years ago

          3 million is for the quarter. Also the attach rate of 34% is for the quarter.

          I also think 3 million AIB boards does not include direct to miners sales. Hard to tell.

          • K-L-Waster
          • 2 years ago

          It’s not clear to me if this also includes compute sales (e.g. Teslas and FirePros etc.) Although I can’t imagine the volume for those being in the 90+ Million range (seems high to me).

    • chuckula
    • 2 years ago

    Thing to look for next month depending on how smart Ngreedia is: A bifurcated launch of Volta/Ampere/Turing/whatever they end up calling their post-Pascal product.

    The silicon can be pretty much the same but be divided into two categories:
    1. An intentionally overpriced mining solution &
    2. A just regularly overpriced gaming solution that’s made that way via driver wizardry that effectively throttles the types of operations that miners want to do but that games don’t do.

    Nvidia can’t really do that with Pascal because miners can just use somewhat older drivers that don’t throttle the mining performance so it’s a lost cause. But new GPUs don’t have older drivers that would work properly, so it’s an opportunity to start with a clean slate. Of course, this could lead to an arms race where the miners try to fool the driver into giving stronger mining performance, but it could at least help.

    I’m not saying that this will happen, but it would be interesting if it did.

      • blastdoor
      • 2 years ago

      Market segmentation for the purposes of overcharging miners is market segmentation that I can actually get behind!

      • LoneWolf15
      • 2 years ago

      The moment someone says “NGreedia” I block out everything they say after.

      I’d do the same for someone who says something similar about AMD, just like I do kindergarden-insult words about political leanings, and so on). Their bias is already there and as a result, their credibility is gone.

        • chuckula
        • 2 years ago

        Considering the AMD-squad regularly accuses me of being a paid Nvidia shill, I use the term in the same way that the American Revolutionaries referred to themselves as Yankees even though it was an insult used by the British.

        • K-L-Waster
        • 2 years ago

        In Chuck’s case he’s using it very tongue in cheek.

    • BurntMyBacon
    • 2 years ago

    It is hard to tell how significant the more than 3M cards purchased by miners is given the data here. If we extend the number out and assume ~12M discrete cards over the year, that still doesn’t amount to much of the total 363M graphics units (presumably not just discrete) shipped and doesn’t appear to be an apples to apples comparison.

    Some graphs made by JPR in Q3 2017 indicate the Q4 2016 graphics card shipments were around 14M (loose estimate):
    [url<]https://www.anandtech.com/show/12107/q3-2017-graphics-cards-shipments-hit-5-year-high[/url<] The current add-in-board report puts the Q4 Year-To-Year increase at 9.7%: [url<]https://www.jonpeddie.com/store/add-in-board-report[/url<] Using this data, we have graphics card shipments in Q4 2017 at around 15.5M (loose estimate). This means the over 3M cards purchased by miners is looking like around 20% of the add-in-board market. It would be interesting to know how many cards were purchased aftermarket vs as part of a pre-built PC.

    • Kretschmer
    • 2 years ago

    Nvidia is up to 86.4% on the Steam survey, with AMD barely ahead of Intel as a pixel-pusher of preference.

    I’m worried that the Crypto craze is a double-edged sword for AMD. While they’re getting much-needed revenue for R&D they are dropping off the radar for gamers and game developers. This could lead to a deprioritization of optimizations for AMD cards and features. If Crypto dries up they’ll be fighting tooth and nail to stay relevant.

      • Ninjitsu
      • 2 years ago

      Yeah, the influx of Chinese players contributed significantly to that it would seem.

        • DragonDaddyBear
        • 2 years ago

        Based on TR’s review of the AMD CPU with a GPU, I wouldn’t doubt that those start showing up in the near future. It’s a pretty good value for “e-sports” that are popular in China. That might push up the non-dedicated GPU numbers at least.

        • JustAnEngineer
        • 2 years ago

        Yep. In the past year and a half, the Steam hardware survey showed a massive influx of PC’s running GeForce GTX 750Ti and GTX 960 cards on Windows 7 with Chinese Traditional language. Windows 10 and GeForce 10xx and Radeon RX cards saw their market shares cut in half in the past year and a half.

        While it’s cool that the survey data have become more representative of the world as a whole, it’s now less representative of the high-end PC gaming market.

      • Bensam123
      • 2 years ago

      No? AMD has always been off the radar for gamers. If you ever ask for opinions or recommendations from people who don’t visit tech websites (and even some that do) they’ll always recommend Nvidia as a goto. They don’t keep up with card recommendations. They never fixed that, the bulldozer name smear also fell over to their GPU lineup. Even though they’re a completely different segment and always have been competitive, they still get hate and general consensus is they’re just bad.

      AMD graphics could really use a rebrand, possibly back to ATI.

      As far as optimizations, they put very little effort into optimizing for cryptos, unless they’re currently doing that in hardware. There are only a couple driver releases focused around crypto performance (the block chain drivers), which was to fix the DAG issue with dagger-hashimoto. Other then that they haven’t really went out of their way to improve performance for miners, which is pretty hilarious considering the amount of money they’re making on them, gaming should absolutely take a back seat – the same goes for Nvidia.

      • DavidC1
      • 2 years ago

      So why did Intel figures drop by half?

      • heinsj24
      • 2 years ago

      My last Nvidia card was a 6800 GS. I’ve been happily red team since the caps went prematurely on that card. But with the impossibility of finding a new AMD card at a decent price ( I currently have an R9 390) has me going green the next time.

      At least with Nvidia, I can try to order a card directly from them at a reasonable price. That isn’t an option for AMD and their partners are no help. If you can find a partner to order directly from, their prices are just as high as anyone else selling on Amazon, or Newegg and Microcenter – so much for trying to save money by ordering directly from the source.

      Also AMDs support for their video drivers has really sucked since August when they went and moved everything about. No one there has time to get together new FAQs.

    • Zorb
    • 2 years ago

    Why produce more volume when they’re already cleaning you out? Margains my man…. margins

      • Voldenuit
      • 2 years ago

      I’m fairly certain that AIBs have contracts for delivery well and truly inked, and that nvidia and AMD can’t arbitrarily raise prices halfway through a contract because the ASP goes up.

        • BurntMyBacon
        • 2 years ago

        Yeah. It’s very unlikely that nVidia or AMD are cashing in on the inordinately high prices. I would expect to see the MSRPs to go up if they were to gain any benefits beyond moving inventory.

    • chuckula
    • 2 years ago

    [quote<]Year-to-year desktop graphics board shipments reportedly slipped by 2% in the quarter, [/quote<] That's the real head-scratcher in all the numbers. I get that there are always seasonal variations, but both Nvidia & AMD should have at least been able to produce the same (or larger) number of boards that they did in Q4 of 2016.

      • Voldenuit
      • 2 years ago

      RAM shortage?

        • DragonDaddyBear
        • 2 years ago

        According to Lisa Su, that is the issue, especially with Vega cards. HBM is the new hotness and it’s more than AMD and NVidia using it.

          • frenchy2k1
          • 2 years ago

          There may also have been a lack of inventory.
          Basically, demand has been high for multiple quarters now and channel inventory is often used to smooth seasonal demand.
          There is no such thing lately, all cards produced get sold and have been selling for months.
          If they have a shortage of component on top of that, this may explain the drop.

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